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Thread: Dan Druff's 2022-23 NFL picks

  1. #1
    NY Giants at Tennessee

    Half on spread +5.5 -110
    Half on moneyline +210
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  2. #2
    Got that pick both ways.

    This week:

    New Orleans +125 moneyline (+2.5 ok) vs Tampa Bay
    Atlanta +10.5 at Rams
    San Francisco -8.5 vs Seattle
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  3. #3
    Dallas +7.5 -115 (+7 +100 ok) vs Cincinnati
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  4. #4
    Kamara out for New Orleans. I no longer endorse that pick, but it's been made, so it will go on my record either way.

    Oddly the line has barely moved in favor of Tampa. Admittedly I no longer love my position on the Saints, but what's done is done.

    I'm going to take an aggressive approach here and throw a few more picks onto the pile.

    Green Bay vs. Chicago - Under 42
    New England -3 at Pittsburgh
    New England / Pittsburgh - Under 40 -107

    That's 7 NFL picks for me, up from just one the previous week.

    Lord help me.
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  5. #5
    5-1-1 yesterday. Only one that lost was the aforementioned Saints picks which I stopped liking due to Kamara not playing.

    Nice!

    Now I can't resist. Hard to not keep pressing when you're hot in a certain sport.

    I've been considering firing on Philadelphia for awhile, but I'm finally doing it. In the meantime, the line touched the -3 mark, which is significant (not in a good way), but I still like it. Wish I hit it earlier today when it was 2.5.

    Philadelphia -3 +100 vs. Minnesota (-105 ok)
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  6. #6
    Won that easily to go 7-1-1 for the young season.

    Very nice so far!
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  7. #7
    Jacksonville +7 at Chargers (bet soon, line probably going to 6.5)
    Indianapolis +200 vs Kansas City (+5.5 ok)
    Atlanta -103 at Seattle
    Washington vs. Philadelphia - Under 47 -105
    Arizona vs. Rams - Under 48.5
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  8. #8
    Adding:

    Carolina +115 vs New Orleans
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  9. #9
    Wow.

    6-0 this week, including a +200 and +115


    Now 13-1-1 to start the season
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  10. #10
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Wow.

    6-0 this week, including a +200 and +115


    Now 13-1-1 to start the season

    Congratulations. Best NFL start I have ever seen, partly because those money lines were spot on. That is really something. Seriously, that is a once in a lifetime out-of-the-NFL gate. Savor it and keep grinding. It's a fantastic accomplishment.

    I just realized, somewhere on another forum, Mr. Singer is wincing.

  11. #11
    That is an impressive start. Congrats Druff.

    And now I will nit pick just a bit. Wasn't the name of this thread something like Dan Druff's occasional NFL picks?

    15 picks in 3 weeks is more than an occasional pick. It is a third of the games. I guess that is why the title change. And as owner, Druff has the ability to do that title change where as us minions wouldn't.

    But still congrats Druff. I wish I had played along.
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  12. #12
    Nobody is more surprised by this than me. I thought I'd just make occasional picks. My first week went 1-0. So I tried 8 last week, and went 6-1-1. Then I tried 6 more this week, and went 6-0, including a +200 and +115.

    Obviously I had some luck here (a few close ones fell my way, including the Colts +200 today, winning with 24 seconds left), but yeah, this is some start.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Nobody is more surprised by this than me. I thought I'd just make occasional picks. My first week went 1-0. So I tried 8 last week, and went 6-1-1. Then I tried 6 more this week, and went 6-0, including a +200 and +115.

    Obviously I had some luck here (a few close ones fell my way, including the Colts +200 today, winning with 24 seconds left), but yeah, this is some start.

    It's a fantastic start. Usually when you're plugged in like that early, you have a real good sense of pretty much everything. Honestly, it's a historic start for an NFL season.

    To put it in my personal context, the best start I ever had was 17-2-1 about 40 years ago, but that was strictly college. To start like this in the NFL is much more difficult. So congrats. Fabulous job.

    My only advice is whatever threshold you're using to decide what is or is not a play, keep using it. If you like one game a particular week, take one game. If you like eight, take eight. If you like none, take none. You don't owe anybody some minimum number of plays.

  14. #14
    Giants vs Dallas - Under 38.5
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  15. #15
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Giants vs Dallas - Under 38.5

    Dan, I'm going to bitch at you now. I'm a shop 'til you drop, guy, and this line was 39 1/2 the majority of the week. It was 39 many places last night and even this morning. It only went to 38 1/2 today and not everywhere.

    So you should have, at worst, pushed this play.

    I would count this thing as a push, and I'm being reasonable. I wasn't even rooting for you, as I teased the Over, but in fairness, this should have been a push at the worst. I was aware of the lines because, obviously, I had bet a reasonable amount on the game with an Over 32.

  16. #16
    I bet it only about an hour before gametime and only saw 38.5 at my books. I was very annoyed by two things -- both the 6-3 first half failing to stay under, and losing by 0.5.

    I'll still count it as a loss... albeit a painful one.
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  17. #17
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    I bet it only about an hour before gametime and only saw 38.5 at my books. I was very annoyed by two things -- both the 6-3 first half failing to stay under, and losing by 0.5.

    I'll still count it as a loss... albeit a painful one.
    I just hate to see an ongoing masterpiece nicked by an LL (Laziness Loss). You are falling on your sword, and you deserved a better fate on this game.

    I already took one bad timing loss myself this year (it should have been a push), and I hate it. That's why they pay me the big money -- LOL -- to not muck things up.

    And I was not exaggerating. This game was a 39 1/2 all week, basically.

  18. #18
    Short notice, but...

    Cincinnati -4 vs Miami
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  19. #19
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Short notice, but...

    Cincinnati -4 vs Miami

    Well done. Keep rolling, baby. I needed them myself.

    Here's another note on shopping. I teased the Over last night, and had I waited until within eight hours of the game, it's a push (which cancels the wager). But because I saw the line moving, I plugged it in at Over 41 1/2, which made all the difference. People, you've gotta keep on top of the numbers. Not always crucial in the NFL, but it is critical in college football.

  20. #20
    Here's an early NFL pick:

    Atlanta +100 vs. Cleveland


    Good job with the over, redietz.
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