Dan Druff's 2022-23 NFL picks

[Dan Druff]

Indianapolis vs. Tennessee - Under 43

[redietz]

Indianapolis vs. Tennessee - Under 43

Best NFL start I have ever seen. Congratulations (and for the record I'm still counting that Under 38 1/2 as an Under 39).

Tremendous handicapping.

[Dan Druff]

Indianapolis vs. Tennessee - Under 43

Best NFL start I have ever seen. Congratulations (and for the record I'm still counting that Under 38 1/2 as an Under 39).

Tremendous handicapping.

Thank you.

Cleveland down 23-20, going for at least a FG, throws an interception. 23-20 Falcons final, I win.

Colts under looks dead. 24-17 in the 3rd with 7+ min left in quarter. Zeroes for rest of third, but still need a complete zero 4th. Colts make baffling decisions to kick it with 2 min left, down 7, and miss FG. Final score 24-17.

Amazing. Definitely been lucky here in my now 16-2-1 start in NFL (or 16-1-2 if we count it your way).

[monet]

Definitely been lucky here in my now 16-2-1 start in NFL (or 16-1-2 if we count it your way).

You've been hot as a pistol Dan!
Congrats and Nicely Done.
I hope your streaks have translated into thousands of dollars and not just a couple of hundos.
And you forgot to mention that you had a monster streak in the MLB recently as well.
Thanks for putting out these picks for us to see before game time.
Appreciated.

[Dan Druff]

I've been teetering on the brink for awhile about this Monday Night Football pick, but I'm finally doing it.


San Francisco -2 vs Rams

[redietz]

Good luck, Dan.

I literally hate both these offenses, well, I hate the offensive play calling. In forced-choice contests, I took SF and the Over. God, I hate taking Overs with these squads, but that's what I have. I really, really hate the play design and play calling. Did I mention that?

[Dan Druff]

Good luck, Dan.

I literally hate both these offenses, well, I hate the offensive play calling. In forced-choice contests, I took SF and the Over. God, I hate taking Overs with these squads, but that's what I have. I really, really hate the play design and play calling. Did I mention that?

Yeah Rams offense was bad bad bad.

Didn't love the Niners being unable to convert 2nd and 1 at the goal to get a comfortable lead, but it all worked out.

17-2-1 now

When I fall back to earth, it's going to be hard to accept losing games in the NFL.

[redietz]

Good luck, Dan.

I literally hate both these offenses, well, I hate the offensive play calling. In forced-choice contests, I took SF and the Over. God, I hate taking Overs with these squads, but that's what I have. I really, really hate the play design and play calling. Did I mention that?

Yeah Rams offense was bad bad bad.

Didn't love the Niners being unable to convert 2nd and 1 at the goal to get a comfortable lead, but it all worked out.

17-2-1 now

When I fall back to earth, it's going to be hard to accept losing games in the NFL.

Here's a brief cautionary tale from my youth. As I mentioned previously, I had a 17-2-1 start way back when in college football. I was shown (not live) on a show called the Satellite Cable Handicap out of Buffalo. About 50 handicappers were competing and having their records monitored by the show. So I got off to that start and signed up a bunch of people for my sports service. All college football.

Well, I came back to earth and wound up 45-35 or something like that for the season. What I learned from that experience was that I felt terrible after the season, but that my psychological reaction, although understandable, was wrong. The 45-35 was a good solid season. I should have been happy to take it anytime. Instead, I was miserable.

Now what you've done is better. First of all, I have you 17-1-2. Second, it's the NFL, which is more difficult. Whatever you're doing in terms of your threshold to pull the trigger, just keep doing it. It's a fantastic accomplishment.

[Dan Druff]

Indy at Denver - Under 42

[dannyj]

Indy at Denver - Under 42

Nice call Dan. Again.
I didn't let this one go to waste.

[redietz]

Indy at Denver - Under 42

Great handicapping, Dan. I went blind watching that game, but who needs eyes, anyway?

I put lunch money on the Denver TE to score the first TD at 28-1. Who knew the play was no TD at all?

Best NFL start I have ever seen in 45 years of doing this.

[Dan Druff]

I probably won't have a lot of picks for this Sunday, but take a gander at the Seahawks/Saints situation.

The 1-3 Saints are almost 0-4 this year (they squeaked by the Falcons by 1 point in the season opener), and are one of the NFL's bigger disappointments thus far. QB Jameis Winston is almost certain to miss the game again this week, and while Andy Dalton did a decent job during last week's loss to Minnesota, I can easily see the Saints losing this one outright.

I'm doing Seattle moneyline bet. They might not score 48 like last week, but I think they might take it.

Also doing Browns moneyline. I've thought from the start of the season that the Chargers were overrated, and indeed their only 2 wins have come against the not-so-good Raiders and awful Texans. (To be fair, the Browns competition hasn't been particularly good thus far, either.)

A lot of ploppies are going to fire on the Chargers here, because they are perceived to be the far superior team, and the line is only -2 for LA right now. Looks like a trap to me. Browns have looked better than expected overall, given that they were left for dead by many after Deshaun Watson's suspension.

Cleveland +110 vs Chargers (+2 ok)
Seattle +190 vs New Orleans (+5 ok)

[Dan Druff]

Lost two games which were close very late. Oh well. My 18-2-1 start becomes 18-4-1.

Today:

Washington vs. Chicago - Under 38

[redietz]

Nice win. And never a doubt. I still have your start at 19-3-2. Extraordinary.

The Cleveland loss Sunday was bizarre. I don't care what analytics say for that Chargers game. Chargers should have punted.

Analytics are generalized; they aren't tailored specifically for team vs. team or specific context (like seven point NFL fave in a particular situation). They aren't the equivalent of a baseball pitcher versus a specific hitter, which is all that matters, really.

[Dan Druff]

Atlanta +185 vs San Francisco
Seattle +120 vs. Arizona
Miami vs Minnesota - Under 45.5
Philadelphia vs Dallas - Under 42

[redietz]

Another monster day. That was a helluva Atlanta moneyline. They played great, and SF has issues with the secondary injuries.

[Dan Druff]

Denver +185 at Chargers (+4 ok)

Hopefully another helluva moneyline

[redietz]

I've been competing in various NFL no-spread contests for years, where you must pick winners of each game. Picking outright winners in the NFL is a highly underrated skill and quite useful in terms of gambling.

I'm always looking for an opportunity to take a dog I think can move me up a slot. Even though I loved him as a QB in college, I think the Arizona coach is done and has messed up the franchise in a way that will be difficult to repair. They have sold their soul to an offense and a QB that are basically a college offense and a college QB. And both the coach and QB are big checks, so tough to fix. Defensive coordinators solved the offense and the QB after a little more than a season, plus Arizona dumped some of their best receivers. As with most things in the NFL, they are discovering it ain't the system that made it work; it's the players.

My point is that even though I think Arizona is done for the season, I did not have the cajones to go against them with underdog Seattle. Seattle has been pretty consistent and played reasonably well, but I couldn't pull the trigger. So I salute you for taking Seattle.

I got killed picking NFL sans spreads this week, but I may have gotten killed a little less than most people, so I am looking forward to the standings tomorrow.

[Dan Druff]

Horrible ending to that awful Denvder game, with the Chargers winning in OT thanks to a dropped punt return. Brutal.

Not sure if I will have a pick tomorrow.

[redietz]

Horrible ending to that awful Denvder game, with the Chargers winning in OT thanks to a dropped punt return. Brutal.

Not sure if I will have a pick tomorrow.

I almost teased the Over of that horror based on "How bad can that Denver offense really be?" Fortunately, I talked myself out of it. I have certain formal stat angles I use, and it was not quite a play. Wilson is hurt -- you can tell not so much by his passing as by his decisions to not risk contact on plays where he would have risked contact any other season. He's making early contact-avoidance decisions is what I'm saying.

I'm almost licking my chops for next season's futures based on how many teams have suffered significant long-term injuries to key players this season already. Some teams will look much, much different if these players show up hale and hearty next year. I'm shopping for some this-season futures today. I think I found myself the best team (other than Buffalo), and it's a sleeper.