Page 1 of 4 1234 LastLast
Results 1 to 20 of 78

Thread: How much have you lost betting sports ?

  1. #1
    Or how much more would you have if you didn’t convince yourself you had an edge sports betting

    The delusions are strong with most APs. They believe they can just beat sports. Instead of Just continuing to grind at what got them the money they somehow believe they are Haralabos Voulgaris. It’s such a waste of time for 99.9 percent of you. People forget what they are good at and lose their bankroll in the process. I will never understand it

  2. #2
    I'm homeless and have to eat my own foot due to sports betting.

  3. #3
    Negreanu tipped out 20k off of his 3,312,000 win.
    Sort of like Rob Singer.
    Players gonna do what they want to do.
    Not everyday you get to see a rack and a stack of 25k chips...
    Attached Images Attached Images  

  4. #4
    Some of the greatest gambling minds have crashed on the shoals of sports betting. And some of the greatest sports betting minds have crashed when they've stepped out of their sports of expertise. It's the classic pitfall for people who have actually managed to win at some specific subset. The winning isn't enough or the action isn't enough, so they expand what they do and get run over.

    Todd here at least puts thought and work behind what he's doing, although I think he should be more diligent shopping. But almost nobody is as diligent as me, so maybe I coach too much. He's not going to get drilled doing things the way he does them.

    Todd has some classic famous examples to demonstrate how poker expertise doesn't necessarily translate into anything in sports betting. There's Phil Ivey and Stu Ungar, who blew almost as much betting sports as they won playing poker. I should correct that. Ivey blew almost as much playing craps and sports betting as he did playing poker.

    I do see sports betting as a bleed for regular APs. People just blithely assume if you apply an AP mindset, sports winning will come. That's nonsense. Once you're past the free play sign-up bonus whoring, 99% of APs will be out of their depth.

    This is one reason I am so appalled and insulted when a maroon like Singer claims he won 68% ATS for two years in the NFL. The claim is a blatant joke, although he's too dumb to realize it.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I should correct that. Ivey blew almost as much playing craps and sports betting as he did playing poker.
    Ivey was getting massive rebates putting the game over 100% for him but whatever, the way you tell the story is better and I'm guessing he prefers it that way. This a little bit of gripe about these forums because most of you don't know or realize what is going on behind the scenes. Negotiating a 5% rebate for a certain amount of action used to be a thing. I've seen other interesting deals like the Casino giving you 105k must play chips or free play that you had to run through for 100k cash. Sometimes, sports has deals and or promotions like this... you must know that!? Add on points and mail and other things and it can get fun.
    Last edited by monet; 10-09-2022 at 09:23 AM.

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Negreanu tipped out 20k off of his 3,312,000 win.
    Sort of like Rob Singer.
    Players gonna do what they want to do.
    Not everyday you get to see a rack and a stack of 25k chips...
    Next time I want to wash some chips, I'll ask Daniel to do it for a cut ;-)

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I should correct that. Ivey blew almost as much playing craps and sports betting as he did playing poker.
    Ivey might be one of the best table game APs of all time. Who knows how much he won before the Borgata and Crockfords debacle.

  8. #8
    I thought it was pretty common knowledge at this point that Ivey was exploiting loss rebates for craps all over town before he got busted with the edge sorting, then those rebate offers were no more.

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Next time I want to wash some chips, I'll ask Daniel to do it for a cut ;-)
    I doubt you missed this.
    I didn't watch it and probably never will.


  10. #10
    I was down $385 at the start of this weekend, for 4 weeks of pro football and 5 weeks of college. I bet baseball, this year for the first time and lost $677. I would say I average losses of $1000 a year. Had a couple winning years but also a couple years where I lost closer to 2 grand. So average $1000 to $1200 maybe.

    And I have not convinced myself that anything I do with sports betting is +EV. It is purely entertainment and -EV for me. Guys that play golf once a week, what does that cost $100, probably more counting equipment, cloths, drinks afterwards. Sports betting is my golf.

    AND if I have a bad weekend and lose $300-$400, I just charge the married men I service a little more that week.
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I should correct that. Ivey blew almost as much playing craps and sports betting as he did playing poker.
    Ivey was getting massive rebates putting the game over 100% for him but whatever, the way you tell the story is better and I'm guessing he prefers it that way. This a little bit of gripe about these forums because most of you don't know or realize what is going on behind the scenes. Negotiating a 5% rebate for a certain amount of action used to be a thing. I've seen other interesting deals like the Casino giving you 105k must play chips or free play that you had to run through for 100k cash. Sometimes, sports has deals and or promotions like this... you must know that!? Add on points and mail and other things and it can get fun.
    Monet, I'm well aware of people who laid 105 instead of 110 routinely on everything they bet when they bet it, but that was for 50K on up per game. I'm also aware of the occasional 5K in free play that could be used towards sports bets if one chose (M used to do that). I think when all is said and done, if you are completely diligent and organized, yeah, you could manage to make a profit winning 50 to 51% of your bets.

    Where Ivey got in some trouble (and Mickelson) was hooking up with a certain high stakes sports bettor originally from my neck of the woods. That was a whole 'nother world.

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by jdaewoo View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I should correct that. Ivey blew almost as much playing craps and sports betting as he did playing poker.
    Ivey might be one of the best table game APs of all time. Who knows how much he won before the Borgata and Crockfords debacle.
    I've didn't AP baccarat. The chick did for him.

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Originally Posted by jdaewoo View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I should correct that. Ivey blew almost as much playing craps and sports betting as he did playing poker.
    Ivey might be one of the best table game APs of all time. Who knows how much he won before the Borgata and Crockfords debacle.
    I've didn't AP baccarat. The chick did for him.
    Have you watched any of the interviews with the woman? She was pretty forthright. Refreshing attitude. She was driving the bus, intellectually and in terms of expertise.

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Next time I want to wash some chips, I'll ask Daniel to do it for a cut ;-)
    I doubt you missed this.
    I didn't watch it and probably never will.

    I was aware of it, but hadn't watched it yet.

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I should correct that. Ivey blew almost as much playing craps and sports betting as he did playing poker.
    Ivey was getting massive rebates putting the game over 100% for him but whatever, the way you tell the story is better and I'm guessing he prefers it that way. This a little bit of gripe about these forums because most of you don't know or realize what is going on behind the scenes. Negotiating a 5% rebate for a certain amount of action used to be a thing. I've seen other interesting deals like the Casino giving you 105k must play chips or free play that you had to run through for 100k cash. Sometimes, sports has deals and or promotions like this... you must know that!? Add on points and mail and other things and it can get fun.
    Monet, I'm well aware of people who laid 105 instead of 110 routinely on everything they bet when they bet it, but that was for 50K on up per game. I'm also aware of the occasional 5K in free play that could be used towards sports bets if one chose (M used to do that). I think when all is said and done, if you are completely diligent and organized, yeah, you could manage to make a profit winning 50 to 51% of your bets.

    Where Ivey got in some trouble (and Mickelson) was hooking up with a certain high stakes sports bettor originally from my neck of the woods. That was a whole 'nother world.
    You can make 2% -3% knowing absolutely nothing about sports using a simple formula tracking lines that are off/line shopping. Multiple online accounts+ time and dedication and you could make a living. If you were really motivated, dedicated and added more tools such as odds boosts, bonuses, rebates promos, etc, and had lots of friends and family accounts you could do quite well. No fancy handicapping or knowledge about any of the sports. Just some math that shows you either have a +EV bet or you dont.

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by monet View Post

    Ivey was getting massive rebates putting the game over 100% for him but whatever, the way you tell the story is better and I'm guessing he prefers it that way. This a little bit of gripe about these forums because most of you don't know or realize what is going on behind the scenes. Negotiating a 5% rebate for a certain amount of action used to be a thing. I've seen other interesting deals like the Casino giving you 105k must play chips or free play that you had to run through for 100k cash. Sometimes, sports has deals and or promotions like this... you must know that!? Add on points and mail and other things and it can get fun.
    Monet, I'm well aware of people who laid 105 instead of 110 routinely on everything they bet when they bet it, but that was for 50K on up per game. I'm also aware of the occasional 5K in free play that could be used towards sports bets if one chose (M used to do that). I think when all is said and done, if you are completely diligent and organized, yeah, you could manage to make a profit winning 50 to 51% of your bets.

    Where Ivey got in some trouble (and Mickelson) was hooking up with a certain high stakes sports bettor originally from my neck of the woods. That was a whole 'nother world.
    You can make 2% -3% knowing absolutely nothing about sports using a simple formula tracking lines that are off/line shopping. Multiple online accounts+ time and dedication and you could make a living. If you were really motivated, dedicated and added more tools such as odds boosts, bonuses, rebates promos, etc, and had lots of friends and family accounts you could do quite well. No fancy handicapping or knowledge about any of the sports. Just some math that shows you either have a +EV bet or you dont.
    No no no, real sports bettors spend so much time obsessing over obscure handicapping contests that they have to sell their picks to actually make money.

  17. #17
    And I'm sure smurgerburger has had someone try to buy something from me during the last 10 years. You know, him under an alias, a friend, a relative or whatever. Via email or PM or calling me, since my address, phone number, and email have all been posted here.

    Wait, smurgerburger didn't do any of that? Well, gosh darn it, why would he claim that I'm "selling picks?"

    Maybe he's confused. Or lazy.

    As to Axelwolf's comments, for 99.9% of the population, what he's proposing is largely a myth. You'd have to be 24/7 every day evaluating numbers hours by hour, and without a sense of what numbers are likely to move where, you're going to be challenged to make money. Today is not 1990. Numbers move in unison at most books, and those where it does not move in unison are boutique books where you can't get serious money down anyway.

    I happen to have known the master at this, the late Larry Fletcher (AKA Southern Comfort), who had alarm bell programs announcing odds disparities before the rest of the country had internet. Fletcher is the only sports gambler who I actually believe never had a losing year. But he was plugged into some of the biggest names in handicapping, so he wasn't flying blind. When Billy Walters hired me, it was Fletcher who provided some advice regarding Mr. Walters. Fletcher proved that what Axel suggests CAN be done, but given Fletcher's skills and work ethic (he was literally 24/7 every day for every sport), I feel comfortable saying that very, very few people could pull it off.

    I notice there are a number of YouTube sports bettors advocating pure numbers shopping as a formula for success, and they are more than willing to sell you programs to aid and abet you.

  18. #18
    And I'm sure smurgerburger has had someone try to buy something from me during the last 10 years. You know, him under an alias, a friend, a relative or whatever. Via email or PM or calling me, since my address, phone number, and email have all been posted here.

    Wait, smurgerburger didn't do any of that? Well, gosh darn it, why would he claim that I'm "selling picks?"

    Maybe he's confused. Or lazy.

    As to Axelwolf's comments, for 99.9% of the population, what he's proposing is largely a myth. You'd have to be 24/7 every day evaluating numbers hours by hour, and without a sense of what numbers are likely to move where, you're going to be challenged to make money. Today is not 1990. Numbers move in unison at most books, and those where it does not move in unison are boutique books where you can't get serious money down anyway.

    I happen to have known the master at this, the late Larry Fletcher (AKA Southern Comfort), who had alarm bell programs announcing odds disparities before the rest of the country had internet. Fletcher is the only sports gambler who I actually believe never had a losing year. But he was plugged into some of the biggest names in handicapping, so he wasn't flying blind. When Billy Walters hired me, it was Fletcher who provided some advice regarding Mr. Walters. Fletcher proved that what Axel suggests CAN be done, but given Fletcher's skills and work ethic (he was literally 24/7 every day for every sport), I feel comfortable saying that very, very few people could pull it off.

    I notice there are a number of YouTube sports bettors advocating pure numbers shopping as a formula for success, and they are more than willing to sell you programs to aid and abet you.

  19. #19
    Redeitz, are you sure, smurgerburger's comment was directed at you? Seems like just a general comment about the many guys that sell picks. Maybe there is more to it than I know.

    For the record, I have never seen any evidence that Redietz is selling anything and or soliciting members. That is one of the many things Rob Singer made up with absolutely zero proof. I mean, I have shared my sportsbetting experiences, of a purely recreational guy betting sports for entertainment. AND LOSING! if ever there was a person someone selling their picks would target it would be me and I have never heard a peep from redietz.

    Unrelated, Axelwolfs suggestion seems pretty valid to me. Line shopping has never been easier than it is today. Can be done right from home and a bet made in seconds before anything changes. Another thing that can be done from home is taking advantage of the 5% vig for betting early, like a Friday evening, which I do. Hasn't helped me be a winning bettor, but surely has cut vig related losses. I just am not betting sports for anything but fun and don't have or want to put in the time axelwolf is suggesting, but someone that wanted to, 2-3% sounds very doable and right from the comfort of your home. Not sure what limits you could do.

  20. #20
    I have lost no money betting on Sports because I have never bet on Sports.
    https://photos.app.goo.gl/Zk2WAFzDcrJ7pjNB7

    Take comfort in the fact that no one is actually backing up his wishes to have you permanantly banned.


    Smart is knowing a Tomato is a fruit.

    Wise is knowing a Tomato doesn't belong in a fruit salad.



    I am glad to get my full posting rights back! Thank you Dan!

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Florida to allow Sports Betting
    By The Boz in forum Eastern US & Non-US Casinos
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 10-12-2022, 08:26 AM
  2. Who Are the Experts on Sports Betting on This Site
    By Midwest Player in forum Sports & Sportsbetting
    Replies: 19
    Last Post: 11-17-2021, 01:37 PM
  3. Is Sports Betting AP Play?
    By redietz in forum Las Vegas
    Replies: 408
    Last Post: 12-12-2017, 11:50 AM
  4. Sports Betting Continues
    By LoneStarHorse in forum Sports & Sportsbetting
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 02-23-2016, 06:45 PM
  5. Sports Betting in California?
    By Alan Mendelson in forum Las Vegas
    Replies: 0
    Last Post: 07-31-2012, 10:03 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •