How much have you lost betting sports ?

[smurgerburger]

And I'm sure smurgerburger has had someone try to buy something from me during the last 10 years. You know, him under an alias, a friend, a relative or whatever. Via email or PM or calling me, since my address, phone number, and email have all been posted here.

Wait, smurgerburger didn't do any of that? Well, gosh darn it, why would he claim that I'm "selling picks?"

Maybe he's confused. Or lazy.

As to Axelwolf's comments, for 99.9% of the population, what he's proposing is largely a myth. You'd have to be 24/7 every day evaluating numbers hours by hour, and without a sense of what numbers are likely to move where, you're going to be challenged to make money. Today is not 1990. Numbers move in unison at most books, and those where it does not move in unison are boutique books where you can't get serious money down anyway.

I happen to have known the master at this, the late Larry Fletcher (AKA Southern Comfort), who had alarm bell programs announcing odds disparities before the rest of the country had internet. Fletcher is the only sports gambler who I actually believe never had a losing year. But he was plugged into some of the biggest names in handicapping, so he wasn't flying blind. When Billy Walters hired me, it was Fletcher who provided some advice regarding Mr. Walters. Fletcher proved that what Axel suggests CAN be done, but given Fletcher's skills and work ethic (he was literally 24/7 every day for every sport), I feel comfortable saying that very, very few people could pull it off.

I notice there are a number of YouTube sports bettors advocating pure numbers shopping as a formula for success, and they are more than willing to sell you programs to aid and abet you.

I thought you said you have some kind of investors that you provide picks for. Is that not accurate?

Also the % of the population that makes money line shopping is obviously not relevant to the fact that it is a thing people make money at. What % of the population makes money at poker, etc. etc.

ETA - And with regard to twitter luminaries who also sell sports betting platforms, there are extremely successful and skilled poker players that sell coaching services.

[redietz]

And I'm sure smurgerburger has had someone try to buy something from me during the last 10 years. You know, him under an alias, a friend, a relative or whatever. Via email or PM or calling me, since my address, phone number, and email have all been posted here.

Wait, smurgerburger didn't do any of that? Well, gosh darn it, why would he claim that I'm "selling picks?"

Maybe he's confused. Or lazy.

As to Axelwolf's comments, for 99.9% of the population, what he's proposing is largely a myth. You'd have to be 24/7 every day evaluating numbers hours by hour, and without a sense of what numbers are likely to move where, you're going to be challenged to make money. Today is not 1990. Numbers move in unison at most books, and those where it does not move in unison are boutique books where you can't get serious money down anyway.

I happen to have known the master at this, the late Larry Fletcher (AKA Southern Comfort), who had alarm bell programs announcing odds disparities before the rest of the country had internet. Fletcher is the only sports gambler who I actually believe never had a losing year. But he was plugged into some of the biggest names in handicapping, so he wasn't flying blind. When Billy Walters hired me, it was Fletcher who provided some advice regarding Mr. Walters. Fletcher proved that what Axel suggests CAN be done, but given Fletcher's skills and work ethic (he was literally 24/7 every day for every sport), I feel comfortable saying that very, very few people could pull it off.

I notice there are a number of YouTube sports bettors advocating pure numbers shopping as a formula for success, and they are more than willing to sell you programs to aid and abet you.

I thought you said you have some kind of investors that you provide picks for. Is that not accurate?

Also the % of the population that makes money line shopping is obviously not relevant to the fact that it is a thing people make money at. What % of the population makes money at poker, etc. etc.

ETA - And with regard to twitter luminaries who also sell sports betting platforms, there are extremely successful and skilled poker players that sell coaching services.

Regarding Point One: If you have no evidence that I'm selling anything, why open your mouth? And if you're not willing to try to buy something from me and see how that goes, why open your mouth?

Regarding Point Two: To paraphrase you -- Also the % of the population that makes money playing the lottery is obviously not relevant to the fact that it is a thing people make money at. What % of the population makes money at poker, etc. etc. You get my point?

Regarding Point Three: If people are selling something like these programs, which are line shopping tools extraordinaire or so they claim, they aren't too concerned about spreading the wealth. Draw your own conclusions.

[smurgerburger]

And I'm sure smurgerburger has had someone try to buy something from me during the last 10 years. You know, him under an alias, a friend, a relative or whatever. Via email or PM or calling me, since my address, phone number, and email have all been posted here.

Wait, smurgerburger didn't do any of that? Well, gosh darn it, why would he claim that I'm "selling picks?"

Maybe he's confused. Or lazy.

As to Axelwolf's comments, for 99.9% of the population, what he's proposing is largely a myth. You'd have to be 24/7 every day evaluating numbers hours by hour, and without a sense of what numbers are likely to move where, you're going to be challenged to make money. Today is not 1990. Numbers move in unison at most books, and those where it does not move in unison are boutique books where you can't get serious money down anyway.

I happen to have known the master at this, the late Larry Fletcher (AKA Southern Comfort), who had alarm bell programs announcing odds disparities before the rest of the country had internet. Fletcher is the only sports gambler who I actually believe never had a losing year. But he was plugged into some of the biggest names in handicapping, so he wasn't flying blind. When Billy Walters hired me, it was Fletcher who provided some advice regarding Mr. Walters. Fletcher proved that what Axel suggests CAN be done, but given Fletcher's skills and work ethic (he was literally 24/7 every day for every sport), I feel comfortable saying that very, very few people could pull it off.

I notice there are a number of YouTube sports bettors advocating pure numbers shopping as a formula for success, and they are more than willing to sell you programs to aid and abet you.

I thought you said you have some kind of investors that you provide picks for. Is that not accurate?

Also the % of the population that makes money line shopping is obviously not relevant to the fact that it is a thing people make money at. What % of the population makes money at poker, etc. etc.

ETA - And with regard to twitter luminaries who also sell sports betting platforms, there are extremely successful and skilled poker players that sell coaching services.

Regarding Point One: If you have no evidence that I'm selling anything, why open your mouth? And if you're not willing to try to buy something from me and see how that goes, why open your mouth?

Regarding Point Two: To paraphrase you -- Also the % of the population that makes money playing the lottery is obviously not relevant to the fact that it is a thing people make money at. What % of the population makes money at poker, etc. etc. You get my point?

Regarding Point Three: If people are selling something like these programs, which are line shopping tools extraordinaire or so they claim, they aren't too concerned about spreading the wealth. Draw your own conclusions.

1. Do you consider the claim to be a slander? Did you not say something here about having some kind of subscription email or something? Why not correct me if I have misstated something?

2. You have chosen a poor analogy unless you actually believe that people only make money line shopping by getting lucky. (I'm assuming you had in mind lotteries as necessarily -EV although this is not strictly true).

3. Of course the exact same retort could be directed to poker coaching, and yet the fact remains.

[mickeycrimm]

It all goes back to my question, which redietz wouldn't answer. If you could get a 2 point difference on every NFL line would you take it? Remember I said EVERY NFL GAME. The proposition is made before the season starts. You have to bet every game on the board every week for 17 weeks.

Consider the line closed at 15 minutes before kickoff. If the game is at -7 you can take either -5 or +9.

The last time I seen the stats for favorites and dogs covering for the last 30 years it was faves covering 49.9% of the games and dogs covering 50.1% of the games. The 2 point difference should change the math a little.

[jdaewoo]

It all goes back to my question, which redietz wouldn't answer. If you could get a 2 point difference on every NFL line would you take it? Remember I said EVERY NFL GAME. The proposition is made before the season starts. You have to bet every game on the board every week for 17 weeks.

Obviously, you'd have a massive edge. The real question is why are you asking a question with such a simple answer?

[monet]

This was kind of funny...

[tableplay]

This was kind of funny...

Joey liked it enough to put it into his stream with some self-effacing amusement.

[AxelWolf]

And I'm sure smurgerburger has had someone try to buy something from me during the last 10 years. You know, him under an alias, a friend, a relative or whatever. Via email or PM or calling me, since my address, phone number, and email have all been posted here.

Wait, smurgerburger didn't do any of that? Well, gosh darn it, why would he claim that I'm "selling picks?"

Maybe he's confused. Or lazy.

As to Axelwolf's comments, for 99.9% of the population, what he's proposing is largely a myth. You'd have to be 24/7 every day evaluating numbers hours by hour, and without a sense of what numbers are likely to move where, you're going to be challenged to make money. Today is not 1990. Numbers move in unison at most books, and those where it does not move in unison are boutique books where you can't get serious money down anyway.

I happen to have known the master at this, the late Larry Fletcher (AKA Southern Comfort), who had alarm bell programs announcing odds disparities before the rest of the country had internet. Fletcher is the only sports gambler who I actually believe never had a losing year. But he was plugged into some of the biggest names in handicapping, so he wasn't flying blind. When Billy Walters hired me, it was Fletcher who provided some advice regarding Mr. Walters. Fletcher proved that what Axel suggests CAN be done, but given Fletcher's skills and work ethic (he was literally 24/7 every day for every sport), I feel comfortable saying that very, very few people could pull it off.

I notice there are a number of YouTube sports bettors advocating pure numbers shopping as a formula for success, and they are more than willing to sell you programs to aid and abet you.

NOPE! You are wrong.
We did exactly this over a significant amount of picks(well over the SD to be lucky.) I don't remember all the details, I didn't really care I knew it was +EV and basically just collected profits.

It all came about after I offered to bank someone good at sports betting(not handycrapping). I may not be good at it myself, but I guarantee you I know it when I see it and listen to someone's reasoning logic and math. He was willing to spend the time making value bets. At some point, he wanted to do other things and took a back seat on the betting aspect after we settled up.

We wanted to continue so Member A ( Somewhat of a math guy) came up with a simple formula. Member B knew basically ZERO about sports(semi retarded J/K) and simply followed the formula. We had action on some crazy stuff like figure skating, curling, I don't remember what exactly. It didn't matter as long as it fit the criteria. We kina used a modified kelly, the better value we had the more we bet. We were running way over expectation at one point, IIRC in the neighborhood of 7-10%. FYI none of this was taking advantage of bonuses and special stuff. He didn't even have a multi-monitor single control mouse and keyboard or KVM switch set up with bluestacks or anything like that. I meant to do it, but I never got around to it. I think he was jacking around with a bunch of different phones and a few laptops. LOL

No, Member B didn't sit around all day 24/7 making bets. I doubt he spent more than 3-4 hours a day doing it... if that... I'll have to ask.

Again, I don't remember all the details, but I do know we made a decent amount of money without any BS handicrapping and expertise Bullshit.

If you took ages 14-65 and weeded out complete idiots I would say 90% of the of the population could absolutely do it after a week or so of training.

I actually think without bonuses and promotions its closer to 4%

Again, if someone really wanted to get super into it and went all out they could do very well. Heck, if there's anyone out there who is interested, I'd be willing to consider making a deal, setting everything up etc... given the right person.

[AxelWolf]

And I'm sure smurgerburger has had someone try to buy something from me during the last 10 years. You know, him under an alias, a friend, a relative or whatever. Via email or PM or calling me, since my address, phone number, and email have all been posted here.

Wait, smurgerburger didn't do any of that? Well, gosh darn it, why would he claim that I'm "selling picks?"

Maybe he's confused. Or lazy.

As to Axelwolf's comments, for 99.9% of the population, what he's proposing is largely a myth. You'd have to be 24/7 every day evaluating numbers hours by hour, and without a sense of what numbers are likely to move where, you're going to be challenged to make money. Today is not 1990. Numbers move in unison at most books, and those where it does not move in unison are boutique books where you can't get serious money down anyway.

I happen to have known the master at this, the late Larry Fletcher (AKA Southern Comfort), who had alarm bell programs announcing odds disparities before the rest of the country had internet. Fletcher is the only sports gambler who I actually believe never had a losing year. But he was plugged into some of the biggest names in handicapping, so he wasn't flying blind. When Billy Walters hired me, it was Fletcher who provided some advice regarding Mr. Walters. Fletcher proved that what Axel suggests CAN be done, but given Fletcher's skills and work ethic (he was literally 24/7 every day for every sport), I feel comfortable saying that very, very few people could pull it off.

I notice there are a number of YouTube sports bettors advocating pure numbers shopping as a formula for success, and they are more than willing to sell you programs to aid and abet you.

I thought you said you have some kind of investors that you provide picks for. Is that not accurate?

Also the % of the population that makes money line shopping is obviously not relevant to the fact that it is a thing people make money at. What % of the population makes money at poker, etc. etc.

ETA - And with regard to twitter luminaries who also sell sports betting platforms, there are extremely successful and skilled poker players that sell coaching services.

Regarding Point One: If you have no evidence that I'm selling anything, why open your mouth? And if you're not willing to try to buy something from me and see how that goes, why open your mouth?

Regarding Point Two: To paraphrase you -- Also the % of the population that makes money playing the lottery is obviously not relevant to the fact that it is a thing people make money at. What % of the population makes money at poker, etc. etc. You get my point?

Regarding Point Three: If people are selling something like these programs, which are line shopping tools extraordinaire or so they claim, they aren't too concerned about spreading the wealth. Draw your own conclusions.

We didn't use a line shopping app either. But if I had known more about them I certainly would have. Id feel more comfortable buying one if someone I knew to be knowledgeable and trustworthy recommend one. I just didn't really look into it because it was working as is.

[smurgerburger]

No Axel, the only real sports bettors are the ones who do exactly what redietz does.

It doesn't matter how much money you make because there's no such thing as "EV" in sports betting. Only hunches and handicapping contests.

[kewlJ]

I was down $385 at the start of this weekend, for 4 weeks of pro football and 5 weeks of college. I bet baseball, this year for the first time and lost $677. I would say I average losses of $1000 a year. Had a couple winning years but also a couple years where I lost closer to 2 grand. So average $1000 to $1200 maybe.

And I have not convinced myself that anything I do with sports betting is +EV. It is purely entertainment and -EV for me. Guys that play golf once a week, what does that cost $100, probably more counting equipment, cloths, drinks afterwards. Sports betting is my golf.

To update my answer, I was just going over my records for the entire year, from 3 online sportsbooks and bets made at casino sportsbooks here in Vegas and I have pulled into the black for the year @ +$235. Were is the yippie yea emoji.

In examining my numbers I am shocked to find that I have wagered over $730,000 on sports this year. YIKES!

This has been a strange year for me, for reasons that I think everyone is aware, and I played far less blackjack than usual for the first 7 months of the year and was home far more than usual and filled some of that time betting and watching sports. A lot of college basketball and hockey in the spring, tagging along with monet's picks, which I shouldn't disclose because he will stop posting public picks if he thinks I am benefiting. During the summer it was baseball. And now football, and hockey and basketball underway again.

My standard wager is $100, but I sometimes bet twice and occasionally 3 times as much on games I really like. Despite that I have pulled into the black slightly, I have no delusions that this activity is -EV for me. BUT at the moment, counting time wagering and watching games in the evenings, I am pulling in about 5 cents an hour!

[redietz]

No Axel, the only real sports bettors are the ones who do exactly what redietz does.

It doesn't matter how much money you make because there's no such thing as "EV" in sports betting. Only hunches and handicapping contests.

There's nothing like erudite gamblers who conflate flipping coins with predicting behaviors between organisms. God bless them, every one, you know, like Tiny Tim.

The technical response would be something like, "for sports gambling, mathematical analysis is helpful from an odds perspective but not sufficient and not even necessary to make a profit." Whereas knowing the organisms involved, while technically not sufficient (in case you're laying ridiculous odds) is necessary.

For example, I bring up the example of the Kentucky team doctor betting Indiana in LV prior to the Kentucky/Indiana game. No amount of mathematical analysis is going to do much to move the needle on which team one should bet.

Trying to assign "EV" to such events is absurd and is frankly the height of arrogance.

[smurgerburger]

Sounds like something someone who doesn't actually place bets would say, insofar as every bet implies some weighted estimation of risk and reward.

[kewlJ]

Just reread my post above and I feel like I need to correct a statement. I meant to say I have no delusions that this is anything but -EV for me. Big difference from what I wrote.

[AxelWolf]

No Axel, the only real sports bettors are the ones who do exactly what redietz does.

It doesn't matter how much money you make because there's no such thing as "EV" in sports betting. Only hunches and handicapping contests.

There's nothing like erudite gamblers who conflate flipping coins with predicting behaviors between organisms. God bless them, every one, you know, like Tiny Tim.

The technical response would be something like, "for sports gambling, mathematical analysis is helpful from an odds perspective but not sufficient and not even necessary to make a profit." Whereas knowing the organisms involved, while technically not sufficient (in case you're laying ridiculous odds) is necessary.

For example, I bring up the example of the Kentucky team doctor betting Indiana in LV prior to the Kentucky/Indiana game. No amount of mathematical analysis is going to do much to move the needle on which team one should bet.

Trying to assign "EV" to such events is absurd and is frankly the height of arrogance.

I haven't a clue what all this mumbo-jumbo means. I just know it is absolutely possible to make a living betting sports without any fancy Dancy handicapping or years of experience. I wish Tom G would chime in he's really good at finding mathematical value in Las Vegas casinos. There's a thread on Wizard of Vegas where KSDJDJ oftentimes explains the math ans theory behind his methods and post's his picks/ bets BEFORE and keeps a running tally. He isn't handicapping or claiming how good he is. He just findss +EV situations and bets them. You can go back year's ago when he first started. You can see the amounts he was betting back then compared to nowadays.

[AxelWolf]

I was down $385 at the start of this weekend, for 4 weeks of pro football and 5 weeks of college. I bet baseball, this year for the first time and lost $677. I would say I average losses of $1000 a year. Had a couple winning years but also a couple years where I lost closer to 2 grand. So average $1000 to $1200 maybe.

And I have not convinced myself that anything I do with sports betting is +EV. It is purely entertainment and -EV for me. Guys that play golf once a week, what does that cost $100, probably more counting equipment, cloths, drinks afterwards. Sports betting is my golf.

To update my answer, I was just going over my records for the entire year, from 3 online sportsbooks and bets made at casino sportsbooks here in Vegas and I have pulled into the black for the year @ +$235. Were is the yippie yea emoji.

In examining my numbers I am shocked to find that I have wagered over $730,000 on sports this year. YIKES!

This has been a strange year for me, for reasons that I think everyone is aware, and I played far less blackjack than usual for the first 7 months of the year and was home far more than usual and filled some of that time betting and watching sports. A lot of college basketball and hockey in the spring, tagging along with monet's picks, which I shouldn't disclose because he will stop posting public picks if he thinks I am benefiting. During the summer it was baseball. And now football, and hockey and basketball underway again.

My standard wager is $100, but I sometimes bet twice and occasionally 3 times as much on games I really like. Despite that I have pulled into the black slightly, I have no delusions that this activity is -EV for me. BUT at the moment, counting time wagering and watching games in the evenings, I am pulling in about 5 cents an hour!

I'm not sure if you are taking advantage of bonuses line shopping, finding new places to bet offshore etc. But just imagine how much you would be up if you were dedicated to doing all that stuff. You could easily add5k to your total.

[kewlJ]

No, not bonus hunting. I am still leary of online casinos, so I have 3 that I have dealt with for a while and have paid me no issues, that I deal wirh.

I do make the majority of my wagers on Friday evening (at least the weekend bets) at 1/2 juice, so that adds something.

I have been tagging along with ksdjdj from WoV. No offense to Redeitz and his handicapping approach, but an approach based on pure mathjust makes sense to me.

Of course I listen to people handicapping also, like the daily wager show on ESPN as well as anyone just hot at the moment like our own Dan Druff and monet. Druff tends to be very streaky in both directions, so when he turns south, I won't follow for long until he "rights" himself.

[mickeycrimm]

It all goes back to my question, which redietz wouldn't answer. If you could get a 2 point difference on every NFL line would you take it? Remember I said EVERY NFL GAME. The proposition is made before the season starts. You have to bet every game on the board every week for 17 weeks.

Obviously, you'd have a massive edge. The real question is why are you asking a question with such a simple answer?

I agree. I think its advantage. The reason for the question is because some people like redietz don't believe just handicapping numbers works. I know of a book where the lines move like crazy towards the favorites and overs starting a couple of hours before game time. It's because everyone standing in line is betting the favs and overs. I think pouncing in that situation when the number moves two points is advantage.

[Treeshade]

Ivey was getting massive rebates putting the game over 100% for him but whatever, the way you tell the story is better and I'm guessing he prefers it that way. This a little bit of gripe about these forums because most of you don't know or realize what is going on behind the scenes. Negotiating a 5% rebate for a certain amount of action used to be a thing. I've seen other interesting deals like the Casino giving you 105k must play chips or free play that you had to run through for 100k cash. Sometimes, sports has deals and or promotions like this... you must know that!? Add on points and mail and other things and it can get fun.

Monet, I'm well aware of people who laid 105 instead of 110 routinely on everything they bet when they bet it, but that was for 50K on up per game. I'm also aware of the occasional 5K in free play that could be used towards sports bets if one chose (M used to do that). I think when all is said and done, if you are completely diligent and organized, yeah, you could manage to make a profit winning 50 to 51% of your bets.

Where Ivey got in some trouble (and Mickelson) was hooking up with a certain high stakes sports bettor originally from my neck of the woods. That was a whole 'nother world.

You can make 2% -3% knowing absolutely nothing about sports using a simple formula tracking lines that are off/line shopping. Multiple online accounts+ time and dedication and you could make a living. If you were really motivated, dedicated and added more tools such as odds boosts, bonuses, rebates promos, etc, and had lots of friends and family accounts you could do quite well. No fancy handicapping or knowledge about any of the sports. Just some math that shows you either have a +EV bet or you dont.

The people I’m talking about do none of this.

I’m also not talking about multi accounting signup bonus’s or working the online bonus / freeplay system like we do in physical casinos. I’m talking about the majority who can beat certain casino games then blow it betting on sports. It’s Just something I have been noticing lately.

I just think most APs would have more success if they tripled down on what they are good at instead of trying to master multiple disciplines.

[redietz]

It all goes back to my question, which redietz wouldn't answer. If you could get a 2 point difference on every NFL line would you take it? Remember I said EVERY NFL GAME. The proposition is made before the season starts. You have to bet every game on the board every week for 17 weeks.

Obviously, you'd have a massive edge. The real question is why are you asking a question with such a simple answer?

I agree. I think its advantage. The reason for the question is because some people like redietz don't believe just handicapping numbers works. I know of a book where the lines move like crazy towards the favorites and overs starting a couple of hours before game time. It's because everyone standing in line is betting the favs and overs. I think pouncing in that situation when the number moves two points is advantage.

This is actually a complete misrepresentation of everything I do. I don't know why mickey crimm just makes stuff up, but that's who he is and where we are on this. It's stupid and silly.

If anyone has read my umpteen criticisms of parlay betting and parlay calculators, they know exactly how much I value shopping and how the absence of optimal numbers is the crux of why I argue that parlay betting is de facto a bad idea. I must have posted this stuff at least 20 times, but mickey decides I meant the opposite of what I've written 20 times.

Also, I have mentioned at least four or five times that the only sports gambler I have ever met who I truly believe did not have a losing year -- ever -- was Larry Fletcher, aka Southern Comfort. As I have described probably half a dozen times on this forum, his modus operandi was in large part numbers shopping.

Mickey generalizes from a fundamental question he asked, which was regarding NFL wagering and getting two free points per wager. He did not specify whether that was for sides or totals, which are two completely different things and yield two completely different answers. He then extrapolated to all sports, which are completely different things.

The arguments on these boards that I take issue with have to do people thinking that shopping numbers is exploitable in some easy fashion. It is not. Numbers move in unison more now than ever. In fact, the way and reasons numbers move are completely different from 30 years ago. The other problem is the idea that somehow line moves in certain sports are generally correct to some significant degree. "Sports" is not a generic thing. You have to specify which sports, for what reason the lines move, and when during a season. For example, about two-thirds of the way into a college basketball season, both college point spreads and totals are murderously accurate. Getting the best of those numbers is paramount. And getting the best of those numbers is not easy or automatic, as I detailed in my three or four mentions of Chinese programmers attacking college hoops in LV for two seasons about six years ago.

I would appreciate mickey abstaining from misinterpreting what he knows nothing about and from misreporting how I do things when he has no idea. Half the reason people have me handling their money is precisely because I have a reputation for (1) knowing the majority of the time where college football lines will move and (2) shopping in a sustained, 24/7 way.

And regarding the initial question, unless you're buying off three, getting two free points on NFL sides all year for every game and laying -110 any given year is not going to yield any enormous advantage. At all. Unless you're working off three.