sports picks

[kewlJ]

There's a thread on Wizard of Vegas where KSDJDJ oftentimes explains the math ans theory behind his methods and post's his picks/ bets BEFORE and keeps a running tally. He isn't handicapping or claiming how good he is. He just findss +EV situations and bets them. You can go back year's ago when he first started. You can see the amounts he was betting back then compared to nowadays.

I took the liberty of moving this quote to the sportsbook section for this reply.

I know there is discussion between Axel and Redietz concerning math based vs handicapping picks. have been betting this guy's (KSDJDJ) picks for a few weeks. He uses a rating system of X, XX, XXX for the strength of his picks. For college I bet the XX and XXX picks. For the pros I usually play whatever he picks, including the X picks since there aren't that many.

This week in college his XX and XXX picks went 10-1. Pros not so good at 2-3.

[smurgerburger]

There's a thread on Wizard of Vegas where KSDJDJ oftentimes explains the math ans theory behind his methods and post's his picks/ bets BEFORE and keeps a running tally. He isn't handicapping or claiming how good he is. He just findss +EV situations and bets them. You can go back year's ago when he first started. You can see the amounts he was betting back then compared to nowadays.

I took the liberty of moving this quote to the sportsbook section for this reply.

I know there is discussion between Axel and Redietz concerning math based vs handicapping picks. have been betting this guy's (KSDJDJ) picks for a few weeks. He uses a rating system of X, XX, XXX for the strength of his picks. For college I bet the XX and XXX picks. For the pros I usually play whatever he picks, including the X picks since there aren't that many.

This week in college his XX and XXX picks went 10-1. Pros not so good at 2-3.

Would you link the thread please?

[kewlJ]

Would you link the thread please?

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb...er/#post863666

His picks for last week are on page 12. he only had one single X pick on college, Vanderbilt +14, which also won. I don't know why I have chosen to make my cut off the XX and higher picks.

Also, I am not trying to cherry pick this guy by posting up after a really good week. As Axel alluded to you can go back and look, he has been pretty consistently good. I don't know exactly what math based formula he is using to come up with these picks, but it seems to be working, at least to date. Better than my usual coin flip methods.

One thing I am not crazy about is many of his picks involve Mid-America conference teams. Those games aren't going to be on TV and I would otherwise have no interest in them, but if he is picking winners.....

[redietz]

That's really odd. The last two weeks, half my plays were MAC plays. No 10-1, mind you, but won. Actually lost a teaser with Toledo on Saturday. Ugly as sin. They blew a 17-point lead with six turnovers. Made up for the previous week, when I had a teaser with Toledo and they were down 21-0 first quarter and then blew Kent out. There is something wrong coaching-wise when a team plays that schizophrenically.

[kewlJ]

That's really odd. The last two weeks, half my plays were MAC plays. No 10-1, mind you, but won. Actually lost a teaser with Toledo on Saturday. Ugly as sin. They blew a 17-point lead with six turnovers. Made up for the previous week, when I had a teaser with Toledo and they were down 21-0 first quarter and then blew Kent out. There is something wrong coaching-wise when a team plays that schizophrenically.

Just off the top of my head, betting lines for some of these smaller conferences probably aren't as accurate as the bigger schools and conferences because the lines makers just don't put in the same time and effort. So whether handicapping or using some sort of math based formula/strategy, you can find more lines that you think are off.

3 or 4 years ago, I had a formula that I was using for college basketball based on power ratings and strength of schedule and slightly adjusted for home court advantage. A month into the season, I noticed that this was way off for the Horizon league. (Cleveland State, Youngstown state, Wright state....those teams). A fairly quick look and it was pretty obvious the home court advantage was much greater than normal. Teams were winning by 15 on their home court and then losing by 12 to 15 days later on the other teams home court. This was a league trend, not just 1 or 2 teams. The home court advantage seemed to be 10-12 points rather than the 3-4 normally given. I did very well for a couple months betting these teams.

[redietz]

About 30 years ago, the Big 10 had a notorious home court advantage that was off the charts. It was frightening. Some of it was officiating. Some of it was things like Indiana having to fly into Harrisburg PA and then bus for two hours to Penn State for games (because the State College airport couldn't handle jets at the time).

I actually think Bobby Knight tossed his chair in part because Big 10 home teams were supposed to get every call, and his team was on the receiving end of some bad ones AT HOME. I remember watching the game live, and Knight didn't just go nuts and toss the chair. I saw him squinting towards the chair after a previous bad call. He was considering it. Then when another bad call occurred, he figured what the hell.

[AxelWolf]

There's a thread on Wizard of Vegas where KSDJDJ oftentimes explains the math ans theory behind his methods and post's his picks/ bets BEFORE and keeps a running tally. He isn't handicapping or claiming how good he is. He just findss +EV situations and bets them. You can go back year's ago when he first started. You can see the amounts he was betting back then compared to nowadays.

I took the liberty of moving this quote to the sportsbook section for this reply.

I know there is discussion between Axel and Redietz concerning math based vs handicapping picks. have been betting this guy's (KSDJDJ) picks for a few weeks. He uses a rating system of X, XX, XXX for the strength of his picks. For college I bet the XX and XXX picks. For the pros I usually play whatever he picks, including the X picks since there aren't that many.

This week in college his XX and XXX picks went 10-1. Pros not so good at 2-3.

Would you link the thread please?

KJ covered it. Note: you may not have access to some of the lines/bets he has.

He also came up with a good/smart system of betting yes or no on if lottery jackpots would hit. I guess he was able to look up lottery ticket sales and calculate the odds and make a bet based on the yes/no lines.

His bets and reasoning for betting them make sense and he has mathematics to back it up.

[kewlJ]

To update: This dude at WoV, ksdjdj, that Axelwolf mentioned that I have been tagging along with his picks, went 3-7 yesterday, following up his 10-1 day 2 weeks ago and slight winning week last week. In addition to the 3-7 that I played, he threw in 2 picks late in the day, Hawaii +27 and Hawaii under, which I did not play and both lost. so 3-9 for him, 3-7 for me.

That throwing in 2 additional picks late in the day of a losing day seemed like a desperation play or chasing losses. If those plays really met his criteria, he would have mentioned them when he made his official picks.