Dan Druff's 2022-2023 NCAA Basketball picks

[Dan Druff]

Won Loyola, lost Long Island

Now 42.5 / 52 / 1.5, -10.71 units


Today:

Davidson -5.5 vs Virginia Commonwealth
Boston College +210 vs Duke - FIRST HALF (0.5 unit pick)
Boston College +8.5 -112 vs Duke - FULL GAME (0.5 unit pick)
St. Josephs +155 at Fordham

[Dan Druff]

Davidson -5.5 vs Virginia Commonwealth - WIN
Boston College +210 vs Duke - FIRST HALF (0.5 unit pick) - LOSS
Boston College +8.5 -112 vs Duke - FULL GAME (0.5 unit pick) - WIN
St. Josephs +155 at Fordham - LOSS

Broke even.

Now 43.5 / 53 / 2.5, -10.76 units

[Dan Druff]

PLOPPY MONDAY

Norfolk State -13.5 at Delaware State

[Dan Druff]

Lost Norfolk by 0.5. Brutal.

Now a season-low 43.5 / 54 / 2.5, -11.76 units

Today:

Eastern Michigan +125 at Western Michigan
Valparaiso +175 vs Belmont
Mississippi +1.5 vs Auburn

[redietz]

I almost never bet college hoops outside of futures, but I put dinner money on a teaser with ETSU vs. Citadel, the teaser bumping the Pick line to +5. That pick line was so wild, and a sideways indication of how far ETSU has fallen how fast, that I still don't believe it. I'm not sure anybody on Citadel would make an ETSU roster.

And for the record, I do not like the ETSU program at all. I hope they lose every game...except maybe this one.

[Dan Druff]

Well I went 0-3 there, and that's it for me. Tried NCAAB this season, didn't work out. I know when I can't beat something, and it feels like that here.

Walking away from this sport with a 43.5 / 57 / 2.5, -14.76 units record


I'll continue to bet on NBA even though I'm in the red there, albeit not as bad. Will be sad to see football end, as that's where I did my best work this season, especially in the NFL.

[Dan Druff]

Okay, I lied. One more because I really like it today.

Texas Tech -1.5 vs Iowa State

[redietz]

Okay, I lied. One more because I really like it today.

Texas Tech -1.5 vs Iowa State

I have no brilliant advice on whether you should truncate the season or not. Usually if you lean to shutting it down, that's the way to go.

I did two seasons of low-unit experimental college hoops about 30 years ago. I showed a very minimal profit both years but everything I looked for dried up once the conference games got into full swing. Before the conference seasons, I was coming up with about a play a day. After that, nothing really. By "minimal profit," I mean like two and a half games profit once year and about a game or game and a half the second. It wasn't worth the effort or concern, and it really dramatized the difference between a sport I really, really knew (college football) and a sport where I was just applying specific rules and playing AP.

I did do some "bulk betting" the year they moved the three-point line back a couple of seasons ago. We targeted teams that took the highest percentage of three-point shots and who had shot the highest percentage from three-point range. We took Unders and did real well in a limited, three-week-or-so run to open the season. Then numbers adjusted pretty dramatically for those teams and we shut it down. We took fewer than 20 games, I think.

Anyway, good luck. College hoops is the one sport where there are true savants out there who know what they're doing. Some of them crash and burn or the sport radically changes, but they are out there. And as I've mentioned a few times, maybe six/seven years back, some Chinese programmers killed it for two seasons with a high-volume approach. Very impressive.

Oh, I wanted to mention this. I'm shopping for futures right now, and part of the work is cross-referencing BPI, RPI, and the seeding projections to arrive at possible decent mega-longshot values. The problem this year is that those three things, BPI/RPI/seeding projections, have the least overlap and commonality I have ever seen. They are literally at odds with each other to an unprecedented extent. Some seeding projections are positing Kansas State as a one seed, for example, which seems nuts to me. And UCLA may be ranked in the top four overall in BPI (which is allegedly the top priority), but some seedings have them as a three seed. There is no congruity. And Houston is literally all over the place if you compare BPI, RPI, and various seeding projections.

So I wait.

[Dan Druff]

That Texas Tech game was so bad that I stopped checking the score. They were down 21 points in the 2nd period. Done. Goodbye.

Or was it?

They went on a 20-3 run, tied the score to go to OT, and then squeezed out a 3-point win in the final seconds.

So okay, let's do this again.

West Virginia +2 at TCU

[Dan Druff]

Lost West Virginia by 2.

Today:

Villanova +170 at Marquette - FIRST HALF

[Dan Druff]

Won Villanova first half.

Today:

Portland +2 at San Diego
Long Beach State +2 at Cal State Fullerton
McNeese State -10 vs Lamar
Stanford +170 at Utah - FIRST HALF

[Dan Druff]

All four of the dog teams above won. I had the favorite on McNeese, so that one was a loser, but the other 3 hit, including Stanford which was ahead the whole way.

I'm now 5-2, +4.13 units since returning to NCAAB.

This takes my record to a somewhat better 48.5 / 59 / 2.5, -10.63 units.

[Dan Druff]

Kent State -1.5 at Akron

[Dan Druff]

Kent lost.

Today:
Florida +170 at Kentucky

[Dan Druff]

Florida lost.

Today:

Northern Colorado -1.5 vs Weber State

[Dan Druff]

Won easily last night.

Now:

Mississippi -1.5 at Georgia

[Dan Druff]

Someone my SMU +115 pick against Temple didn't post last night. Posted it on my PFA site though, so it counts. (Note that I've counted losing picks before when this has happened, too.)

Won the Mississippi pick I posted above, too. Both were close.

Record now: 51.5 / 61 / 2.5, -9.66 units.

I'm 8-4, +5.10 units since returning from my hiatus, so I'm feeling a bit better about NCAAB betting.

[Dan Druff]

Coastal Carolina +200 vs Marshall - FIRST HALF
Missouri KC +1.5 at Western Illinois

[Dan Druff]

Eastern Kentucky -102 at Queens NC (up to -110 ok, +1 up to -117 ok)

[Dan Druff]

Won yesterday

Today:

Northern Kentucky +2.5 at Wright State