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Thread: Dan Druff's 2022-2023 NCAA Basketball picks

  1. #81
    Won Loyola, lost Long Island

    Now 42.5 / 52 / 1.5, -10.71 units


    Today:

    Davidson -5.5 vs Virginia Commonwealth
    Boston College +210 vs Duke - FIRST HALF (0.5 unit pick)
    Boston College +8.5 -112 vs Duke - FULL GAME (0.5 unit pick)
    St. Josephs +155 at Fordham
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  2. #82
    Davidson -5.5 vs Virginia Commonwealth - WIN
    Boston College +210 vs Duke - FIRST HALF (0.5 unit pick) - LOSS
    Boston College +8.5 -112 vs Duke - FULL GAME (0.5 unit pick) - WIN
    St. Josephs +155 at Fordham - LOSS

    Broke even.

    Now 43.5 / 53 / 2.5, -10.76 units
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  3. #83
    PLOPPY MONDAY

    Norfolk State -13.5 at Delaware State
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  4. #84
    Lost Norfolk by 0.5. Brutal.

    Now a season-low 43.5 / 54 / 2.5, -11.76 units

    Today:

    Eastern Michigan +125 at Western Michigan
    Valparaiso +175 vs Belmont
    Mississippi +1.5 vs Auburn
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  5. #85
    I almost never bet college hoops outside of futures, but I put dinner money on a teaser with ETSU vs. Citadel, the teaser bumping the Pick line to +5. That pick line was so wild, and a sideways indication of how far ETSU has fallen how fast, that I still don't believe it. I'm not sure anybody on Citadel would make an ETSU roster.

    And for the record, I do not like the ETSU program at all. I hope they lose every game...except maybe this one.

  6. #86
    Well I went 0-3 there, and that's it for me. Tried NCAAB this season, didn't work out. I know when I can't beat something, and it feels like that here.

    Walking away from this sport with a 43.5 / 57 / 2.5, -14.76 units record


    I'll continue to bet on NBA even though I'm in the red there, albeit not as bad. Will be sad to see football end, as that's where I did my best work this season, especially in the NFL.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  7. #87
    Okay, I lied. One more because I really like it today.

    Texas Tech -1.5 vs Iowa State
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  8. #88
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Okay, I lied. One more because I really like it today.

    Texas Tech -1.5 vs Iowa State

    I have no brilliant advice on whether you should truncate the season or not. Usually if you lean to shutting it down, that's the way to go.

    I did two seasons of low-unit experimental college hoops about 30 years ago. I showed a very minimal profit both years but everything I looked for dried up once the conference games got into full swing. Before the conference seasons, I was coming up with about a play a day. After that, nothing really. By "minimal profit," I mean like two and a half games profit once year and about a game or game and a half the second. It wasn't worth the effort or concern, and it really dramatized the difference between a sport I really, really knew (college football) and a sport where I was just applying specific rules and playing AP.

    I did do some "bulk betting" the year they moved the three-point line back a couple of seasons ago. We targeted teams that took the highest percentage of three-point shots and who had shot the highest percentage from three-point range. We took Unders and did real well in a limited, three-week-or-so run to open the season. Then numbers adjusted pretty dramatically for those teams and we shut it down. We took fewer than 20 games, I think.

    Anyway, good luck. College hoops is the one sport where there are true savants out there who know what they're doing. Some of them crash and burn or the sport radically changes, but they are out there. And as I've mentioned a few times, maybe six/seven years back, some Chinese programmers killed it for two seasons with a high-volume approach. Very impressive.

    Oh, I wanted to mention this. I'm shopping for futures right now, and part of the work is cross-referencing BPI, RPI, and the seeding projections to arrive at possible decent mega-longshot values. The problem this year is that those three things, BPI/RPI/seeding projections, have the least overlap and commonality I have ever seen. They are literally at odds with each other to an unprecedented extent. Some seeding projections are positing Kansas State as a one seed, for example, which seems nuts to me. And UCLA may be ranked in the top four overall in BPI (which is allegedly the top priority), but some seedings have them as a three seed. There is no congruity. And Houston is literally all over the place if you compare BPI, RPI, and various seeding projections.

    So I wait.

  9. #89
    That Texas Tech game was so bad that I stopped checking the score. They were down 21 points in the 2nd period. Done. Goodbye.

    Or was it?

    They went on a 20-3 run, tied the score to go to OT, and then squeezed out a 3-point win in the final seconds.

    So okay, let's do this again.

    West Virginia +2 at TCU
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  10. #90
    Lost West Virginia by 2.

    Today:

    Villanova +170 at Marquette - FIRST HALF
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  11. #91
    Won Villanova first half.

    Today:

    Portland +2 at San Diego
    Long Beach State +2 at Cal State Fullerton
    McNeese State -10 vs Lamar
    Stanford +170 at Utah - FIRST HALF
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  12. #92
    All four of the dog teams above won. I had the favorite on McNeese, so that one was a loser, but the other 3 hit, including Stanford which was ahead the whole way.

    I'm now 5-2, +4.13 units since returning to NCAAB.

    This takes my record to a somewhat better 48.5 / 59 / 2.5, -10.63 units.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  13. #93
    Kent State -1.5 at Akron
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  14. #94
    Kent lost.

    Today:
    Florida +170 at Kentucky
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  15. #95
    Florida lost.

    Today:

    Northern Colorado -1.5 vs Weber State
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  16. #96
    Won easily last night.

    Now:

    Mississippi -1.5 at Georgia
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  17. #97
    Someone my SMU +115 pick against Temple didn't post last night. Posted it on my PFA site though, so it counts. (Note that I've counted losing picks before when this has happened, too.)

    Won the Mississippi pick I posted above, too. Both were close.

    Record now: 51.5 / 61 / 2.5, -9.66 units.

    I'm 8-4, +5.10 units since returning from my hiatus, so I'm feeling a bit better about NCAAB betting.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  18. #98
    Coastal Carolina +200 vs Marshall - FIRST HALF
    Missouri KC +1.5 at Western Illinois
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  19. #99
    Eastern Kentucky -102 at Queens NC (up to -110 ok, +1 up to -117 ok)
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  20. #100
    Won yesterday

    Today:

    Northern Kentucky +2.5 at Wright State
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

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