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Thread: My Eagles wager

  1. #1
    Two weeks ago, I made a substantial wager for me (mid 4 figures), on the Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC east at odds of better than 3 to 1.

    As a big Eagles fan, just typing out those words makes my skin crawl. Figuring the Cowboys will beat the Eagles in Dallas on Dec 24, I need the Cowboys to pick up one more game. Today is probably the best chance of that, with Eagles playing Tennessee and Dallas playing Indy.

    Now that the day is here, I hate that I made this bet. I still think it is a strong bet, but I more or less have to be rooting against my team. Very unpleasant situation for me.

  2. #2
    Losing wager and one that stings a little. This $4500 bet and loss was a rather large wager for me. Took me from +3600 for the year, after 4 successful political wagers on the election that returned 3 grand, back down into the red for the year at -$900.

    I still think it was a decent wager (3-1 to win the division) as at the time the Cowboys looked the superior team. I was banking on the Cowboys to win the head to head with Eagles next week, which now no longer matters, PLUS needed the Cowboys to win all the games they should have won, while the Eagles picked up an extra loss along the way. Instead it was the Cowboys who picked up an extra loss yesterday to Jacksonville, and that after almost losing to Houston last week. Cowboys certainly don't look like the team they did 3-4 weeks ago. That is the beauty of the NFL season.

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Losing wager and one that stings a little. This $4500 bet and loss was a rather large wager for me. Took me from +3600 for the year, after 4 successful political wagers on the election that returned 3 grand, back down into the red for the year at -$900.

    I still think it was a decent wager (3-1 to win the division) as at the time the Cowboys looked the superior team. I was banking on the Cowboys to win the head to head with Eagles next week, which now no longer matters, PLUS needed the Cowboys to win all the games they should have won, while the Eagles picked up an extra loss along the way. Instead it was the Cowboys who picked up an extra loss yesterday to Jacksonville, and that after almost losing to Houston last week. Cowboys certainly don't look like the team they did 3-4 weeks ago. That is the beauty of the NFL season.

    Both teams looked like hell yesterday, which figured since they play each other this week. Eagles managed to hang on. Cowboys blew the game. They both were in control of the games in the second half but slopped up the last 20 minutes or so.

    I have Cowboys at +750 and +1000 to win the NFC. They are going to have to play better defense than they did yesterday to win any playoff games.
    Last edited by redietz; 12-19-2022 at 01:50 PM.

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post

    Both teams looked like hell yesterday, which figured since they play each other this week. Eagles managed to hang on. Cowboys blew the game. They both were in control of the games in the second half but slopped up the last 20 minutes or so.

    I have Cowboys at +750 and +1000 to win the NFC. They are going to have to play better defense than they did yesterday to win any playoff games.
    Your conference wagers are still alive I guess, but at this point, as a wildcard team, the Cowboys will have to play and win 3 road playoff teams to get there and currently they are only 3-3 on the road this season. After next weeks Eagles game in Dallas the Cowboys final 2 regular season games are on the road, so they would have to play 5 straight road games and win 3 playoff games in a row on the road. That seems like a might tall task.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post

    Both teams looked like hell yesterday, which figured since they play each other this week. Eagles managed to hang on. Cowboys blew the game. They both were in control of the games in the second half but slopped up the last 20 minutes or so.

    I have Cowboys at +750 and +1000 to win the NFC. They are going to have to play better defense than they did yesterday to win any playoff games.
    Your conference wagers are still alive I guess, but at this point, as a wildcard team, the Cowboys will have to play and win 3 road playoff teams to get there and currently they are only 3-3 on the road this season. After next weeks Eagles game in Dallas the Cowboys final 2 regular season games are on the road, so they would have to play 5 straight road games and win 3 playoff games in a row on the road. That seems like a might tall task.
    I'm looking to make money, not have them win the NFC.

    Words have meaning. Your post was interesting in that you said they would have to win three road games. That's not necessarily the case.

    If road teams other than them win games, then as the best wildcard record, they'd play home games if matched against those teams. But, more importantly, they avoid the Eagles in Round Two.

    However, that's not my point. My point is you have two ways of presenting the situation:

    1) Dallas would have to win three road games, and their road record is just 3-3.
    2) Dallas would have to wade through a SF team without a QB, a losing Tampa team that looks geriatric and slow, or a Viking team they beat by 40 points. Or possibly the Giants. Or possibly a collapsing Seattle team. Or possibly Detroit.

    In this case, both (1) and (2) can be true. They're not mutually exclusive.

    I'm looking to make money. To make money, I probably need them to win two games. It's possible I can get away with them winning one game, depending on if they can handle the Eagles this week.

    The fact is, Dallas will be favored on the road versus both the Vikings and Tampa and will be no worse than +1 or thereabouts at SF. Essentially, being on the road versus bad teams translates into the same odds as being at home versus really good teams (like Buffalo or KC).

    P.S. Hurts is injured.
    Last edited by redietz; 12-19-2022 at 03:32 PM.

  6. #6
    I am currently sitting having invested $4500 to return $18,450 on a wager for the Cowboys to win the NFC East division.

    I wrote this wager off as a loss 3 weeks ago when Dallas lost to Jacksonville falling a full 3 games behind the Eagles with 3 games remaining. Since that time 2 Cowboy wins (not particularly impressive) and 2 Eagles losses and this bet still has some life.

    Dalles needs to win at Washington, who was eliminated from the playoffs last week, Dallas currently a 7 point favorite and the Eagles need to lose at home to the Giants.

    When the Eagles lost this past Sunday, I thought there might be an opportunity to hedge this rather large (for me) wager. But with the Eagles currently a 14 point favorite (-865 ML), I don't see much of a hedging opportunity. Maybe that line will come down if Hurts is ruled out.

    redietz or anyone else.....am I missing something that I could do to hedge?

  7. #7
    I forgot to mention that the Giants are locked into the six seed in the playoffs. They can't go up or down so will be resting some starters.

  8. #8
    I'm pretty confident since Thursday it would be Eagles beating Bills. I'm only confident enough to bet a couple hundred.

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday View Post
    I'm pretty confident since Thursday it would be Eagles beating Bills. I'm only confident enough to bet a couple hundred.
    Purely as a fan, I hope you are right.

    I still look at the Eagles schedule this season and think "who did they really beat"? They didn't play the 49ers. They split with Dallas, winning when Dak Prescott was out. They beat Minnesota very early, but despite their good record and like 10 games won by 3 points or less, Minnesota was only a mediocre team that won a lot of close games.

    I think The Eagles are good. They have quickly and dramatically improved at almost every position. But all 3 teams remaining in the AFC are also teams strong everywhere. Thinking with my head and not my heart, I am not sure the Eagles can beat any of those 3 remaining teams, KC, Bills, or Bengals. But then again, I thought 7 1/2 points was too much to lay last night, so I didn't bet the Eagles, just rooted for them, so what do I know.

  10. #10
    Eagles opened vs 49ers at -2.5. geez, I don't know. 49ers are by far the best team the Eagles have played this year. Both the Eagles offensive and defensive lines are dominate against most teams. I don't see that against the 49ers.

    If I had no interest as a fan, in this game, I think I would be all over the 49ers and especially if it clicks up to 49iers +3.

    Interesting trend. In the first round games last week, the over hit 5 of the 6 games. The one that didn't hit was Cowboys-Tampa Bay. That game stayed under by a point to a point and a half depending on the line you got. And oh by the way, Dallas missed 4 extra points.

    This week a different tale. All 4 games went under.

  11. #11
    I don't know if I'm scared money or scared for my money with the Eagles to win division with side bets. I've bet too much and am worried I'm wrong.
    Last edited by theywontpayontuesday; 01-26-2023 at 02:08 AM.

  12. #12
    Well this is it, my fellow Eagles fans and I am glad there are a few here. 20 minutes and counting. Weather in Philly 50 degrees and shower. Football weather.

    Placing no money on the game, not because I am not confident but because I don't need money to have an interest in this game and that is what most of my sports betting is about.

    I am optimistic. I expect a good close game and think the Eagles have a decent shot to advance. Enjoy the game guys.

  13. #13
    Not a fan, just a bettor. Bet more on them -7 today and the over. Was worried all week I was making a mistake, but it looks good now.

  14. #14
    Well, I was wrong about a close game. I didn't know SF would be down to an injured QB that couldn't throw the ball more than 3 yards. That is a shame. I would have liked to have seen how he fared against the Eagles defense. And the rest of the country deserved a better game than what we saw.

    What really surprised me was how SF just completely came apart. They were the #1 defense and I think the least penalized team or at least one of the least and they just completely came apart with costly penalty after costly penalty. And most if not all were legitimate penalties that should be called. I think I saw one, a hold on Eagles tight end Dallas Goddard, that I don't think I would have called. The defender did grab Goddard for a second but I don't think it had any effect. That ball would not have been caught. Other than that every penalty was legit and just a disciplined team, coming unglued.

    In fairness, I will speculate that maybe the SF defense felt extra pressure to create something because of the QB and offensive situation.

    Either way, on to the Superbowl. as of this writing, I don't know if the Eagles can beat KC and Patrick Mahomes. I think they can give them a good honest game though and who knows with a break or two, anything can happen. FLY EAGLES FLY!

  15. #15
    The odds must be in the Eagles favor, but they need to play the game and see what happens. I would bet the Eagles and not feel bad if they lost.

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by theywontpayontuesday View Post
    The odds must be in the Eagles favor, but they need to play the game and see what happens. I would bet the Eagles and not feel bad if they lost.
    I honestly can't figure out why the Eagles are even favored? I watched every Eagles game this season and I don't think they are a great team. Who did they beat? They beat Dallas when they didn't have their starting QB, SF when they knocked their QB out early and he returned but couldn't throw the ball. Early in the season they beat Minnesota handily, but as the season wound down, Minnesota turned out to be a mirage, not a very good team.

    Meanwhile the Eagles lost to a mediocre Wahington team, beat a bad Arizona team by 3, beat a bad Indianapolis team by 1, beat a bad Chicago team by 5.

    I just don't think anyone in the NFC was that good and the two decent teams the Eagles played and won, (SF and Dallas) were without their starting QB's..

    Meanwhile Kansas City is one of the 3 best teams in the NFL, along with Buffalo and Cincinatti in my opinion. I don't think the Eagles would win against any of those teams. I guess we will find out about one of them.

    The Eagles have done well because they didn't play many good teams, got ahead early in most games and then got lots of sacks and interceptions when the opponents had to pass trying to catch up. I don't think they will get ahead by 10, 14 points or more to KC. And they might fall behind by 10, 14 points which would put the Eagles playing catchup, something they haven't had to do.

    I will be routing hard for the Eagles, but I won't have any money on the game itself. I have bet one prop bet of Dallas Goddard over 48 receiving yards and am thinking about Dallas Goddard over 6 catches. I think the Chiefs will try to take away both receivers and that will leave Goddard and running backs catching a lot of shorter check down type passes. That is sort of the Chiefs defensive strategy anyway. They try to take away big plays and make you drive the field with shorter passes.

  17. #17
    The things you say make sense. Still a very good defense, and it is on the Chiefs to change the dynamic by obtaining a big lead and the Eagles expect this strategy. The public and the books tend to think the Eagles are small favorites, it is probably true. Defense wins championships and here we are in a championship game. There is not an edge betting either so just for fun or gambling's sake either way. Depends on if Mahomes can stay effective and healthy.

  18. #18
    I have deleted several troll messages in this thread.

    Please do not troll in this section of the forum. I allow some limited trolling in the Las Vegas section, but I would like this sportsbetting section to only contain serious discussion of sports and sportsbetting.

    Thank you.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  19. #19
    I think you have made a good point about SF. Nobody is probably thinking about them, it makes me think it could be a good time to bet them to win the SB next year as well as Cincinatti.

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