kewlJ can we have a Rob Singer update?

[smurgerburger]

I wonder what redietz would say if he knew that the concept of EV were applied rampantly in poker.

[kewlJ]

Redeitz, which AP, Axelwolf, AinQ, ect said that what they are doing in regards to promo based sports betting which by the math makes their play +EV (because of the promo or other situation), rivals the decades long ability of yourself or your hero Billy Waters?

If whatever these guys are doing were to dry up tomorrow as you said, these guys would just move on to the next +EV opportunity (which they are actually likely already doing) and it wouldn't even involve sports betting.

That is the whole point....what these guys are claiming is not about sports betting, it is about finding +EV opportunities. This particular one just happens to involve sports betting. You seem to be taking offense that this opportunity for however long it has existed, months, years, and however long it remains is some threat to your legacy or history of 40 years of more traditional sports betting and sports picking. It is no way tarnishes your history. The two are not connected. They are apples to oranges.

Your mention of the late Alan Mendelson and his very biased, negative, anti-AP rhetoric (things like secret AP club) is very disappointing. I don't know why you would go there.

I think some of this is because you think you need to answer to Rob Singers nonsensical challenges of your past and history. YOU DON'T! Singer is a nut with zero credibility.

[accountinquestion]

I wonder what redietz would say if he knew that the concept of EV were applied rampantly in poker.

Once again he is bringing up Billy Waters. Then he seems to think people are claiming they do better than Billy Waters. Redietz makes strawmen like no one else.

He finally get something right though, that promotions are not something APs can rely on being around forever. Still a strawman of sorts since people aren't claiming any promotion will be around forever. Nothing will. What a clown.

[coach belly]

Your mention of the late Alan Mendelson and his very biased, negative, anti-AP rhetoric (things like secret AP club) is very disappointing. I don't know why you would go there.

You have got to be kidding. Have you no shame?

[kewlJ]

Your mention of the late Alan Mendelson and his very biased, negative, anti-AP rhetoric (things like secret AP club) is very disappointing. I don't know why you would go there.

You have got to be kidding. Have you no shame?

Fuck you coach belly....and the 14 year old boy you rode in on. Oh wait....you already did!

Nothing wrong with what I said. I am sorry Alan passed and may he rest in peace, but Alan Mendelson, was very anti-AP. He didn't like players that won based on the math and frankly didn't even believe in the math. He probably didn't understand the math in most cases. If anyone needs confirmation of this, there are thousands of posts here and at WoV that prove what I am saying. These facts don't change because Alan passed away.

[accountinquestion]

Just to be clear. Redietz's point is pretty lame. Everyone here who is sharp gets it. There is not EV that can definitively be calculated. However there is still something like a theoretical EV.

If you want to be able to understand it - think of it like this. You are God and can restart a game a billion times and average out the results. Then knowing that, you could go look at any bet and figure out the edge you have or the EV. That is the EV but it requires faith and you will never be 100% correct. I'm not sure what a better term would be but at least "EV" lets ditz think he has a point worth making.

So what is the proper term, Redietz? Say your handicapping says team A is going to win by 3 but they're the dog at some book. Now there is a distribution of historical results. Using this you can estimate the odds of losing or winning the bet (presuming your handicapping is correct and historical data is fairly accurate). So there is a definitive calculated number that is very similar to the EV in purely numbers based gambling. So what do you call that Redietz? What is the term or word that is closer than EV?

[AxelWolf]

I think you guys are coming down a bit hard on redietz. So he brags a little and tells us about the contests he is doing well in with nary a mention of the contests that he is in 694th place and was out after 2 weeks. Don't you machine players post up pictures of your big winning hands, but don't talk much about losing sessions. I don't remember anyone other than myself, saying something like I was playing this game with an advantage but just didn't win....in the case of a machine, maybe just didn't hit that bigger jackpot that really makes the play a winner (despite the game being +EV at that time).

You know my saying. It doesn't take that much to figure out who knows what they are talking about. At least to me, Redietz has easily cleared that bar.

Here is another thing I learned from redietz: Sports better don't have to be guys that pick and bet specific games, hitting 55, 57% to make a profit as I always thought. Nor do they have to be scammers, selling their picks to both sides. (IF you are really picking winners, why would these cats be selling them?). The contest circuit that redietz seems to specialize in, is something I never even considered and frankly, moves him a little closer to the AP label, which he has always resisted.

I just don't get what it is that is bothering some of you guys? Did he claim to hit anything for millions of dollars (several different claims) that can't be verified? Did he claim to buy a million and a half dollar RV or home? Or to have bought homes for his kids that there is no record of? Did he steal some story from the news of someone winning a million dollar contest and say that was him?

None of that, he tells you exactly where he lives, in a modest house in East Bubblefuck, Tenn. And he shares some of his experiences winning or doing well in contests. Big deal. So what is the issue?

So this post really has nothing to do with Red and everything to do with obsessing over Rob.

[kewlJ]

So this post really has nothing to do with Red and everything to do with obsessing over Rob.

Cheers to you, "Captain".

[AxelWolf]

I wonder what redietz would say if he knew that the concept of EV were applied rampantly in poker.

Once again he is bringing up Billy Waters. Then he seems to think people are claiming they do better than Billy Waters. Redietz makes strawmen like no one else.

He finally get something right though, that promotions are not something APs can rely on being around forever. Still a strawman of sorts since people aren't claiming any promotion will be around forever. Nothing will. What a clown.

From let's say 2001-2002 give or take a year until now can someone tell me when there have not been sports bonuses, sports promotions, off lines, arbitrage, etc? Sure, technically you might be right "promotions are not something APs can rely on being around forever" There's no handicapping method or AP situation that one can rely on forever that's why perhaps it's better to be a "jack of all, and master on none" when it comes to sports betting and AP.

Who really knows since there are always outliers when you consider the best of the best in a particular area. I'm fairly certain no one on this forum is the best of the best or even close or ever will be(oops, I almost forgot about Zenking the GOAT).

Let's assume one isn't making a cut from their client's money. What percentage on average does a college football handicapper make?
How many games on average does he bet per year? What's the longest losing streak one can go on?

[AxelWolf]

So this post really has nothing to do with Red and everything to do with obsessing over Rob.

Cheers to you, "Captain".

If that's all you got, then I'm golden. Fyi, I wasn't trying to be nasty it's just that a few of your posts keep leading back to Rob. You are never going to win your battle with Rob. Let's just say you had absolute proof that everything Rob ever said was complete BS. He will brag that he's been trolling you for 10 years or whatever and you fell for it. He will claim the king of the trolls and probably write a how-to book.

[coach belly]

....the 14 year old boy you rode in on.

Nothing wrong with what I said.

It doesn't take that much to figure out who is the scumbag around here.

Hypocrite doesn't begin to describe what a total disgrace you are.

[AxelWolf]

Fuck you coach belly....and the 14 year old boy you rode in on.

That was kinda funny.

[coach belly]

That was kinda funny.

Yes, when you realize that he was referring to your "wife".

[AxelWolf]

The fact is, also, you're not going to find years-long records of these APs who have made money betting sports.

Can anyone show me proof of a handycapper that has years-long records(500-1000 bets min?) in sports who have made money off of pure handicapping?

I'll accept public records showing picks made prior to all games and the real line available. IE no BS lines that are basically impossible to get down on.
I have seen that move before where a tout claims to be getting down with 1/2-1 point better than what's actually available. Sure, that happens, but certainly not every game.

[AxelWolf]

That was kinda funny.

Yes, when you realize that he was referring to your "wife".

Oh, I didn't see her post quoted.


That video is Very fitting since Captain Jack is actually a well-known and highly regarded sports bettor. I don't think I have ever tried Captain Jack I like Captian Morgans.

The beach vibe and Bikini actually reminds me of a cruise me and my Wife went on. She made that Bikini herself.

[coach belly]

I like Captian Morgans.

Yeah, we heard.

You must have been going through a rough patch to play the fool like that.

She made that Bikini herself.

Nice...she makes her own clothes, just like the sister wives.

[AxelWolf]

I like Captian Morgans.

Yeah, we heard.

You must have been going through a rough patch to play the fool like that.

She made that Bikini herself.

Nice...she makes her own clothes, just like the sister wives.

Not sure what that even means.

She actually isn't a bad seamstress for being self-taught. It's not easy to design and make a perfectly fitting bikini to your taste from scratch, with no pattern or good examples. Chicks are usually really picky when it comes to their bikinis. Any little imperfections they notice and think everyone else will as well. It was only after searching store to store looking for the perfect bikini without success I suggested she make the perfect style and fitting one herself.


Back when she was taking some nursing classes she started making unique scrubs for herself. Her Mother, who was an RN asked her to make some for her. They caught on with the other nurses who were willing to pay for custom scrubs. She could crank them out fairly fast and inexpensively. I believe they were paying upward of $80 a pop depending on how custom they were.

I think she got bored of it, but she made a nice haul for the time she did it.

[mickeycrimm]

Billy was convicted and imprisoned for profiting from insider trading, making $32M profit while avoiding $11M in losses.

He's out now: Trump commuted his sentence.

Walters had been out of prison for 8 months when Trump pardoned him. He was released after doing about 3 years of a 5 year sentence by prison officials because his age put him in the high risk category for covid. Once released he was never going back to prison whether Trump pardoned him or not.

BTW, The FBI had been after him for years. They stupidly thought his sportsbetting was bookmaking. They looked for anything to hang him on. Walters says it was a wrongful conviction and is pursuing litigation

[MisterV]

Walters had been out of prison for 8 months when Trump pardoned him.

He was on home confinement, when Trump pardoned him one year before his sentence would have ended.

Gotta wonder whether Billy paid him in exchange?

[mickeycrimm]

Walters had been out of prison for 8 months when Trump pardoned him.

He was on home confinement, when Trump pardoned him one year before his sentence would have ended.

Gotta wonder whether Billy paid him in exchange?

Yu mean confined to his mansion? His time was just about up when Trump pardoned him.