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Thread: An important message to my readers and viewers and followers.

  1. #1
    In another thread there was a discussion in which a participant made certain claims that video poker, played in a casino, could be a better investment than U. S. government bonds.

    His claim was based on a combination of knowledge and skill for playing video poker and the mathematics and possible or expected return of playing certain games.

    I want to make this clear to all of my readers and viewers and followers who have watched my financial reports on TV for more than 35 years: it makes no difference if we are talking about a video poker game with a negative expectation or a positive expectation, or a video poker game played with the best skill and with the best possible paytable that might give you an "expected return" that exceeds any other known investment yield or dividend or interest rate. When it comes to investment and security there is no comparison between the return on your money and the return of your money.

    If you are investing your money the better investment is always the investment that will guarantee the return of your money. NO casino game will guarantee the return of your money.

    The US Government has never defaulted on a bond. I want to make it clear to my readers and viewers who have followed me for more than 35 years on TV and for longer than that on radio and when I wrote for Barron's and the financial press do not -- repeat -- do not allow yourself to be duped by anyone who claims that they can sell you a system, a technique, a method, or a bet that can guarantee you the return of your money in any casino game or that any casino game will offer you more security than an investment in U.S. government insured bonds or the debt obligations of the U.S. government.

    Yes, there are casino games just as there are business ventures that offer you the opportunity to get a better return on your money. But understand that a gamble is always a gamble. And when the potential return on your money goes up, so does the risk that you won't get your money back.

    I don't want anyone to ever say to me that they lost their college fund, retirement fund, or house because they were lured into a casino by the promise of a greater return on their money and that they overlooked the risk of not getting a return of their money.

    While there are professional casino gamblers, let me assure you that the best of the casino gamblers also have their own guaranteed and insured investment plans that are not a gamble.

  2. #2
    Alan, you do realize that the gov't does not have enough money to cover all the insured banks and treasury bonds ... right? While they may not have had problems in the past, that is no guarantee they won't in the future. If we ever got into a run on banks you can kiss most of your money goodbye.

    Now, if our gov't hadn't got itself into such extreme debt then I would tend to agree with you. The problem now is they cannot cover their existing debts which means all those bank guarantees are at risk. You wouldn't want to lead your readers astray.

  3. #3
    Alan I got the point even if arci wasn't paying attention. Must've been making more pea soup.

  4. #4
    The timing of this post couldn't be better -- as we learned yesterday that the wealth of the average household has declined 40%. Looks as if a whole lot of gambling has been going on -- although it wasn't defined as such. Couldn't do much worse playing video poker with your eyes closed.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by arcimede$ View Post
    Alan, you do realize that the gov't does not have enough money to cover all the insured banks and treasury bonds ... right? While they may not have had problems in the past, that is no guarantee they won't in the future. If we ever got into a run on banks you can kiss most of your money goodbye.

    Now, if our gov't hadn't got itself into such extreme debt then I would tend to agree with you. The problem now is they cannot cover their existing debts which means all those bank guarantees are at risk. You wouldn't want to lead your readers astray.
    Is this a justification or rationalization for playing video poker as a way to beat the return on government bonds?

    And if the US Government fails to pay its debts, what chance do you think your casino cage has for paying a payout ticket?

    Would you like to hear the story about the casino in LA that went bankrupt while the tables were filled with players? A manager stood up in the middle of the casino and announced that all of the chips on the tables were now worthless.

  6. #6
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Would you like to hear the story about the casino in LA that went bankrupt while the tables were filled with players? A manager stood up in the middle of the casino and announced that all of the chips on the tables were now worthless.
    YES! when was this?

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by bigfoot66 View Post
    YES! when was this?
    When the forerunner of Crystal Casino in Compton went belly-up without warning, players found their chips were worthless and their customer accounts at the cage were frozen. This goes back before Crystal was owned by The Bike (current owner) and before Hollywood Park (previous owner). The owner of Crystal had, if I recall, three casinos in the LA area. And I think one of them because the Hustler Casino.

  8. #8
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Is this a justification or rationalization for playing video poker as a way to beat the return on government bonds?
    Not at all. I have lots of other investments including bonds. Like I said before, I really don't need to have all that much money available for VP. The largest denom I can play with an edge is dollar. That pretty much eliminates it as an investment device. It's more of an income generator.

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    And if the US Government fails to pay its debts, what chance do you think your casino cage has for paying a payout ticket?
    The two things are not connected, Alan.

    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    Would you like to hear the story about the casino in LA that went bankrupt while the tables were filled with players? A manager stood up in the middle of the casino and announced that all of the chips on the tables were now worthless.
    I'd bet there were signs it was going bankrupt long before this happened. Anyone playing there was taking an added risk. However, it does point out it's not a good idea to keep casino chips, tickets, etc. when one leaves a casino. Cash'em in.

  9. #9
    Originally Posted by Alan Mendelson View Post
    When the forerunner of Crystal Casino in Compton went belly-up without warning, players found their chips were worthless and their customer accounts at the cage were frozen. This goes back before Crystal was owned by The Bike (current owner) and before Hollywood Park (previous owner). The owner of Crystal had, if I recall, three casinos in the LA area. And I think one of them because the Hustler Casino.
    That must have hit the the prop players at the BJ tables especially hard. They sit there with tens of thousands in chips...

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by bigfoot66 View Post
    That must have hit the the prop players at the BJ tables especially hard. They sit there with tens of thousands in chips...
    No, these were small casinos in some of the lower income areas of Los Angeles. My guess would be the average account had less than one thousand dollars, and the average player had $200 or less at the tables.

    Remember that LA was, and probably still is, the poker capital of the world. But most of the casinos are small, and cater to low limit and low bankroll players. And then there are the behemoth casinos like Commerce which is the largest poker casino in the world -- more players and more tables than in all of Vegas under one roof where you'll find games starting with a $20 buy in going up to $10,000 or more.

  11. #11
    This discussion is so funny. Arci claims to have "lots of other investments" but fails to mention the reason he "only plays dollars" is really because he was forced to leave LV with his tail tucked firmly between his and the missus 'legs after losing house & home to all those higher limit +EV games that his idol Bob Dancer still has to work multiple jobs these days when he should be retired, in order to make a living. Oh yeah, arci tried to make it on all those "lucrative promotions" he says he went after when he made the mistake of moving there, but unfortunately for him, what goes around always does eerily seem to come around, and that bite in the ass is sooo telling.

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