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Thread: Note to Dan: Rob Singer and Dan Druff Sharing Account at Gambling Forums

  1. #121
    Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
    That out of the way, Red, EV is an abbreviation for, "Expected Value." Do you rely upon EV when betting sports? Yes, you do. You might not choose to call it that, but you do. You don't have to have a precise probability that you ascribe to an event to believe that you have +EV on that event; the concept of EV is not that strict. Most of us machine guys couldn't even put an EV, to the tenth decimal place or whatever, on a particular play. We just know the expected outcome is more than 100% of the total amount we are betting.

    If you have a spread that is -2.5 -110, and you bet that spread, are you betting it because you think the probability of the team winning by three, or more, is precisely 50%?
    I think this is spot on Mission. Redietz is old school. I don't think he thinks in terms of EV or probably more accurately calls it EV.

    At the end of the movie Casino, after the car bombing, Ace, who was playing Lefty Rosenthal, says something like, "in the end, I went back to picking winners. I could always pick winners". So he doesn't say it, maybe didn't even know it, but whatever it is he was doing to pick his teams was plus EV. He didn't throw a dart at a dart board, whatever methology he was using was +EV. I think redietz is along that same line.

    Also, I want to yet again address the redietz tax thing that some of you are harping on. Redietz addressed it at GF addressing Ron. I don't know why he didn't address it here, where even more are harping on it. I am not going to repeat it. That is up to him to do. He has a reason. Sounds a little goofy to me, but if that is how he does it fine.

    But you guys harping that a guy currently a month behind on a property tax bill is proof that Redietz isn't who he claims are trolling. You are making shit up that you don't know because you don't like someone, or think he is "condescending". Just stop. It is just dishonest. No other word for it.

    And the funny part, a guy, who claims to have earned 300+ k a year from his job, until he quit to play video poker, where he won half a million playing a progression wagering system, 3 million playing the double up bug (a claim he stole), and has hit various other million dollar jackpots, also had a property tax bill that he didn't pay of 11k, that went to court and finally he had to pay, along with evictions, bankruptcy and other legal judgements. THAT people is a pattern of years conflicting with these claims and yet no one says anything. That is just funny to you because it is Ron Singer.

    If we are challenging claims, do it with real legitimate concerns, not because you don't like someone. And don't give someone a pass because you think he is funny. That is what I have always done. The few people I have challenged, it isn't because I didn't like them. I didn't know them (especially at the beginning). I challenge claims that defied math and the way things work.
    Last edited by kewlJ; 02-02-2023 at 12:25 PM.

  2. #122
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by Mission146 View Post
    That out of the way, Red, EV is an abbreviation for, "Expected Value." Do you rely upon EV when betting sports? Yes, you do. You might not choose to call it that, but you do. You don't have to have a precise probability that you ascribe to an event to believe that you have +EV on that event; the concept of EV is not that strict. Most of us machine guys couldn't even put an EV, to the tenth decimal place or whatever, on a particular play. We just know the expected outcome is more than 100% of the total amount we are betting.

    If you have a spread that is -2.5 -110, and you bet that spread, are you betting it because you think the probability of the team winning by three, or more, is precisely 50%?
    I think this is spot on Mission. Redietz is old school. I don't think he thinks in terms of EV or probably more accurately calls it EV.

    At the end of the movie Casino, after the car bombing, Ace, who was playing Lefty Rosenthal, says something like, "in the end, I went back to picking winners. I could always pick winners". So he doesn't say it, maybe didn't even know it, but whatever it is he was doing to pick his teams was plus EV. He didn't throw a dart at a dart board, whatever methology he was using was +EV. I think redietz is along that same line.

    Also, I want to yet again address the redietz tax thing that some of you are harping on. Redietz addressed it at GF addressing Ron. I don't know why he didn't address it here, where even more are harping on it. I am not going to repeat it. That is up to him to do. He has a reason. Sounds a little goofy to me, but if that is how he does it fine.

    But you guys harping that a guy currently a month behind on a property tax bill is proof that Redietz isn't who he claims are trolling. You are making shit up that you don't know because you don't like someone, or think he is "condescending". Just stop. It is just dishonest. No other word for it.

    And the funny part, a guy, who claims to have earned 300+ k a year from his job, until he quit to play video poker, where he won half a million playing a progression wagering system, 3 million playing the double up bug (a claim he stole), and has hit various other million dollar jackpots, also had a property tax bill that he didn't pay of 11k, that went to court and finally he had to pay, along with evictions, bankruptcy and other legal judgements. THAT people is a pattern of years conflicting with these claims and yet no one says anything. That is just funny to you because it is Ron Singer.

    If we are challenging claims, do it with real legitimate concerns, not because you don't like someone. And don't give someone a pass because you think he is funny. That is what I have always done. The few people I have challenged, it isn't because I didn't like them. I didn't know them (especially at the beginning). I challenge claims that defied math and the way things work.
    It is clear as day that he is condescending. Why don't you just stop? I am condescending too but not when I am blatantly wrong about something. So funny how you jump to defend him. You're bringing up the tax situation repeatedly. Not other people. Gotta manufacture drama though. Your compulsion.

    Likewise your obsession with Singer is nothing anyone else shares. Get a clue.

    BTW since Redietz took the cowards way and responded else, would you be so kinda to post a link here? While I care, I don't care enough to search for this posting.
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

  3. #123
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post

    It is clear as day that he is condescending. Why don't you just stop? I am condescending too but not when I am blatantly wrong about something. So funny how you jump to defend him.
    He is condescending. So what? Mickey crimm is condescending. James Grosjean is condescending (big time). Axelwolf at times is condescending. Monet is condescending. JBJB is condescending (especially towards card counters).

    You don't try to discredit someone simply because you find them condescending or dislike them for some other reason. It has been happening to me for a long time and it is not right. It is dishonest. That is why I am defending redietz.

  4. #124
    No, redietz is old school when it comes to defining terms.

    "EV" is a mathematical term. It is rooted in and applied to mathematical formulas.

    Now I am actually interested in Mission's response to the following, as he is a language precisionist.

    There is no point in applying "EV" to what amounts to an opinion. Doing that assigns an inappropriate implication of mathematical exactitude. For all of the situations where folks use the term "EV" for sports betting, one could just as easily and more technically accurately say "my subjective opinion" or "my opinion."

    Rather than "the EV of this is +10%" for sports-based comments, it is more appropriate to say, "I think I have a 10% edge" or "my subjective estimation is that I have a 10% edge." You are stating an opinion for anything associated with sports betting, not a mathematical circumscribed reality.

    So the question then becomes, why do people prefer to use the term "EV?" Well, let's go to the usual suspects, and Mission can chime in here, please.

    1) It provides a jargon veneer, an implication that one knows what one is talking about as part of a niche crowd. Expertise jargon, in other words, that people take some solace in or wear like a medal.
    2) It provides, verbally, an illusion of control and precise definition that, in reality, does not exist. You can say your opinion is that you have a 10% edge until the cows come home. That doesn't mean you have a 10% edge. Using the term "EV," however, implies that you do (in reality) have that 10% edge. It's a kind of verbal bluster, a pseudo-math veneer.
    3) I have all the hubris in the world, but folks using the term "EV" for sports are off the hubris charts. They are defining their opinions, which undoubtedly in most sports cases are inferior to mine (a little self-hubris thrown in there) as having much more crystalline math-ness to them than they actually have. They are pretending and arguing that their opinions are some kind of math.

    And let me add here that trends history or any kind of history do not provide sufficient rationale to treat opinions as math. So you can't go around saying this-and-that happened x number of times, therefore I have a certain "EV" edge.

    Now I do think Mission will agree with me on the following: If you prefer to believe something in the world of gambling, check yourself and work to not believe it. I bring this into the picture because everyone undoubtedly would prefer to believe that one's opinion has the cachet of mathematical certainty. So instead of "my opinion," everyone would rather "the EV."

    Basically, it's why use an inappropriate and technically inaccurate term to give gravitas to what amounts to your subjective opinions?

  5. #125
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post

    It is clear as day that he is condescending. Why don't you just stop? I am condescending too but not when I am blatantly wrong about something. So funny how you jump to defend him.
    He is condescending. So what? Mickey crimm is condescending. James Grosjean is condescending (big time). Axelwolf at times is condescending. Monet is condescending. JBJB is condescending (especially towards card counters).

    You don't try to discredit someone simply because you find them condescending or dislike them for some other reason. It has been happening to me for a long time and it is not right. It is dishonest. That is why I am defending redietz.
    Nothing like jumping the tracks all the way to trying to discredit either of the above, let alone by evil tactics. Not even a matter of discrediting either, because neither has, ever, provided even the simplest proof of any significant thus income. Given how easy that may be, offset by the endless goddamn gambling essays to nowhere, day in and out for the last couple of decades, then discrediting someone above remains in the realm of Tasha's similarly daily shit about Guns and Roses. Regardless, the pattern has only been to conclusively show the persons, one by one, to be worthless sacks of lying shit, aka non-starters. The only evidence of any thus thing around here was my quote of a casino executive, who noted that vulturing slots was strictly a low-income lifestyle. You guys can talk till blue in the face, but, it is what it is.

    Now it's old hit-and-run Red. Lol. Ha.
    Last edited by TheGrimReaper; 02-02-2023 at 01:51 PM.
    Drug Rehabilitation + Haliburton County for the local thus clinics. The one in Haliburton town temporarily closed yields the closest, 4cast. 137 posts at NetVoid's forum, + 184 here =321.0, to overlap 3456 at the 3's, as the dimensions from 0 to 6, four by four.bb

    The unused, Zodiac bits: 'dakadu, Lake+151?s (164 char. max) seed the final two lines of the anagram solver -of lies/revenge. Franc Baconis for the capital L yields 141=69+ᘔᘖ; 397=[(10-6+9-1)^3-(1+ᘔ+ᘖ+1)^3].

    Thanks. CIA.0!

    Ha.

  6. #126
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    No, redietz is old school when it comes to defining terms.

    "EV" is a mathematical term. It is rooted in and applied to mathematical formulas.

    Now I am actually interested in Mission's response to the following, as he is a language precisionist.

    There is no point in applying "EV" to what amounts to an opinion. Doing that assigns an inappropriate implication of mathematical exactitude. For all of the situations where folks use the term "EV" for sports betting, one could just as easily and more technically accurately say "my subjective opinion" or "my opinion."

    Rather than "the EV of this is +10%" for sports-based comments, it is more appropriate to say, "I think I have a 10% edge" or "my subjective estimation is that I have a 10% edge." You are stating an opinion for anything associated with sports betting, not a mathematical circumscribed reality.

    So the question then becomes, why do people prefer to use the term "EV?" Well, let's go to the usual suspects, and Mission can chime in here, please.

    1) It provides a jargon veneer, an implication that one knows what one is talking about as part of a niche crowd. Expertise jargon, in other words, that people take some solace in or wear like a medal.
    2) It provides, verbally, an illusion of control and precise definition that, in reality, does not exist. You can say your opinion is that you have a 10% edge until the cows come home. That doesn't mean you have a 10% edge. Using the term "EV," however, implies that you do (in reality) have that 10% edge. It's a kind of verbal bluster, a pseudo-math veneer.
    3) I have all the hubris in the world, but folks using the term "EV" for sports are off the hubris charts. They are defining their opinions, which undoubtedly in most sports cases are inferior to mine (a little self-hubris thrown in there) as having much more crystalline math-ness to them than they actually have. They are pretending and arguing that their opinions are some kind of math.

    And let me add here that trends history or any kind of history do not provide sufficient rationale to treat opinions as math. So you can't go around saying this-and-that happened x number of times, therefore I have a certain "EV" edge.

    Now I do think Mission will agree with me on the following: If you prefer to believe something in the world of gambling, check yourself and work to not believe it. I bring this into the picture because everyone undoubtedly would prefer to believe that one's opinion has the cachet of mathematical certainty. So instead of "my opinion," everyone would rather "the EV."

    Basically, it's why use an inappropriate and technically inaccurate term to give gravitas to what amounts to your subjective opinions?
    People understand the caveats of using EV.

    EV is not a term of expertise or whatever the fuck. To the contrary it is used in all forms of gambling. It is a generic term. You have it backwards you buffoon dipshit.

    Maybe it'd be easier for you if you just replace preface EV with subjective if the concept bothers you so much. No one else has these difficulties. It is your insistence in assuming everyone implies they know the exact EV of every bet. That is on you, doofus.
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

  7. #127
    The phrase "expected value" is not even semantically interchangeable with the phrase "my opinion".

    If you really wanted to go this road would have to say something like "my opinion about the average value" which in its ungainliness and pointlessness would reveal how stupid this crusade is.

  8. #128
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post

    It is clear as day that he is condescending. Why don't you just stop? I am condescending too but not when I am blatantly wrong about something. So funny how you jump to defend him.
    He is condescending. So what? Mickey crimm is condescending. James Grosjean is condescending (big time). Axelwolf at times is condescending. Monet is condescending. JBJB is condescending (especially towards card counters).

    You don't try to discredit someone simply because you find them condescending or dislike them for some other reason. It has been happening to me for a long time and it is not right. It is dishonest. That is why I am defending redietz.
    Is Grosjean posting here? No. Micky at least has proven to know what he is talking about. While I disagree on a lot of things with him he is always spot on with his gambling.

    I suspect you're just not sharp enough to get this. Be condescending all you want but either be correct or have a point that is at least partially worth defending.
    Redietz has none of those. Whatever. Arguing with you about this is a waste beyond the average waste of time.
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

  9. #129
    Red, you really do make it hard to defend you.

    You are wrong on the subject of EV. Just as you are wrong on the subject of anonymity for Advantage Players, especially at the professional level.

    But go ahead, make your argument.

  10. #130
    Well, here's Red's excuse, from GF's, about his taxes.

    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    The only taxes I owe are 2022 real estate, and I never pay them until they're about to get tagged with real late fees, which means I'll pay them in October or November of 2023. That's the routine.
    Quite a routine, Red. A subjectively "great" bit of EV, for you. Just wait for the penalties to mount until everyone gets a good look. Ha.
    Drug Rehabilitation + Haliburton County for the local thus clinics. The one in Haliburton town temporarily closed yields the closest, 4cast. 137 posts at NetVoid's forum, + 184 here =321.0, to overlap 3456 at the 3's, as the dimensions from 0 to 6, four by four.bb

    The unused, Zodiac bits: 'dakadu, Lake+151?s (164 char. max) seed the final two lines of the anagram solver -of lies/revenge. Franc Baconis for the capital L yields 141=69+ᘔᘖ; 397=[(10-6+9-1)^3-(1+ᘔ+ᘖ+1)^3].

    Thanks. CIA.0!

    Ha.

  11. #131
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Red, you really do make it hard to defend you.

    You are wrong on the subject of EV. Just as you are wrong on the subject of anonymity for Advantage Players, especially at the professional level.

    But go ahead, make your argument.
    See, I think that "APs" are the ones who have it backwards.

    First, if "EV" is such a generic word, committing to nothing mathematical, why use it at all? It still boils down to opinion regarding something. Dressing up opinions with the phrase "EV" has no value. Everyone has his own subjective estimation of personal "EV" for every situation, just as everyone has the proverbial asshole. So what's the value? You have a pseudo-mathematical language security blanket to justify this or that going forward?

    Second, the population of folks who go around trying to solve machines or blackjack, and who think using the phrase "EV" is worthwhile in sports because they use the phrase for machine play or blackjack, is swamped and hugely outnumbered by the population of people trying to beat sports. The vast majority of people trying to beat sports are not going to go around declaring "EV" for a game of opinion. They WILL use ROI and historical data to frame past results, but they are not going to pretend they are dealing with coin flips and march out "EV" and mathematical pseudo-certainty as a way to estimate results going forward.

    Assigning "EV" to sports betting is, from the origin point, kind of silly, as spreads are designed to balance wagering. They do not originate so as to accurately predict outcomes. Wagering can come from any direction, from any person or cartel, for any reason. Money is just money. It doesn't have to be rational, sophisticated, or even attempting to be right. Spreads are designed to balance money, so they also don't have to be rational or attempting to be right as long as they come close to balancing the books. Coin flips are always coin flips. Sports spreads can vary wildly depending on which son of a Chinese billionaire decides to dabble in what sport any given month. Sports spreads are not coin flips, and going forward you can't treat them like coin flips, so why adopt math terms for something that is not anchored in math?

  12. #132
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    No, redietz is old school when it comes to defining terms.

    "EV" is a mathematical term. It is rooted in and applied to mathematical formulas.

    Now I am actually interested in Mission's response to the following, as he is a language precisionist.

    There is no point in applying "EV" to what amounts to an opinion. Doing that assigns an inappropriate implication of mathematical exactitude. For all of the situations where folks use the term "EV" for sports betting, one could just as easily and more technically accurately say "my subjective opinion" or "my opinion."

    Rather than "the EV of this is +10%" for sports-based comments, it is more appropriate to say, "I think I have a 10% edge" or "my subjective estimation is that I have a 10% edge." You are stating an opinion for anything associated with sports betting, not a mathematical circumscribed reality.

    So the question then becomes, why do people prefer to use the term "EV?" Well, let's go to the usual suspects, and Mission can chime in here, please.

    1) It provides a jargon veneer, an implication that one knows what one is talking about as part of a niche crowd. Expertise jargon, in other words, that people take some solace in or wear like a medal.
    2) It provides, verbally, an illusion of control and precise definition that, in reality, does not exist. You can say your opinion is that you have a 10% edge until the cows come home. That doesn't mean you have a 10% edge. Using the term "EV," however, implies that you do (in reality) have that 10% edge. It's a kind of verbal bluster, a pseudo-math veneer.
    3) I have all the hubris in the world, but folks using the term "EV" for sports are off the hubris charts. They are defining their opinions, which undoubtedly in most sports cases are inferior to mine (a little self-hubris thrown in there) as having much more crystalline math-ness to them than they actually have. They are pretending and arguing that their opinions are some kind of math.

    And let me add here that trends history or any kind of history do not provide sufficient rationale to treat opinions as math. So you can't go around saying this-and-that happened x number of times, therefore I have a certain "EV" edge.

    Now I do think Mission will agree with me on the following: If you prefer to believe something in the world of gambling, check yourself and work to not believe it. I bring this into the picture because everyone undoubtedly would prefer to believe that one's opinion has the cachet of mathematical certainty. So instead of "my opinion," everyone would rather "the EV."

    Basically, it's why use an inappropriate and technically inaccurate term to give gravitas to what amounts to your subjective opinions?
    I think EV is a mathematical term, but I don't think it is one that requires absolute precision in order to be applied.

    The biggest example I could think of, for the purposes of advantage play, where a precise EV would be known is something like a video poker progressive. You could clearly point to it and say, my EV on each bet is 101.546328%, or whatever the case.

    EV is not meant to imply that one is stating an absolute fact, rather than an opinion, unless the EV is accompanied by a number. A really simple example in slots vulturing would be a game such as Golden Egypt where I might find a situation in which both of the first two reels are going to be wild on the next spin---there is no possible outcome that could result in a failure to profit on that spin. I would say, "My EV is WAY more than 100% on this one," but I wouldn't know the exact EV because I don't know the probabilities of all possible symbols on the other three reels, which means that I can't assign an outcome probability to 4OaK and 5OaK (everything would be at least a 3OaK, unless they Free Games symbol landed in one of the positions on reel three, but even then, all applicable lines would count as two Pharaoh guys, which pays).

    People can just as easily say of a situation, "My opinion is +EV," or, " I don't think there's any way that is positive."

    In the context of sports, you could say, "I think my EV is about 110%, and it would mean the same thing," or, "I think I have a 10% edge."

    My inclination is to think that Expected Value started as a term that applied to percentages that were precisely known and then just started getting used as a more general catch-all term.

    1.) If you think so, that's fine. It's a term that people familiar with gambling would know and understand and anyone not can look up.*

    Yes, I agree that the strict mathematical definition of, "Expected Value," requires that all probabilities be known. In its use as an investment term, that's not really the case as there is some guesswork involved. I guess you could think of slot AP's, and the like, using it more in the investment-term sense that does not require strict mathematical precision, if you wanted.

    2.) If you think it implies that, then that is fine. Most people would not make a statement, "I have a 10% edge," as a matter of fact, without actually knowing that. They would say, "I think my edge is about 10%."

    3.) In any case, if you don't win 52-whatever percentage of bets you make on -110 lines, then you will have lost, lifetime, betting into -110 lines. In order to bet sports positively on that line, then you must believe that the probability of covering is greater than that.

    I often preface, "I think the EV is about..." with, "In my opinion." If someone just looked at a machine and said, "I have a 10% edge here," I'd ask how they could possibly know that.

  13. #133
    Originally Posted by TheGrimReaper View Post
    Quite a routine, Red.
    A communist that stiffs the town on his taxes? That's some ideology.

    Do the civil servants and teachers wait until October 2023 to get paid for 2022,
    or does the town bond out their operating expenses, so everyone ends up paying more
    to cover for the deadbeats?

    No wonder he ducked mickey's repeated questions about paying his SSI.

    It's the red flag that tewlj claimed doesn't exist. Tip of the iceberg stuff.

  14. #134
    This year I'm doing something I've never done before. I'm tracking wager against earn on a monthly basis. I want to see what it looks like over a one year period. I want to see how much wager I run in a year and how much I make from it.

    The reason is because, as Mission says, on most stuff we don't know the exact advantage we have, we just know we have an edge. And there is a lot of difference in the size of the advantage from play to play.

    But I think pros in other areas like BJ, Sportsbetting, Poker, don't realize just how big the edges are that machine pros work.

    And also how little effort is put into it.

    In the month of January my total wager was $46,463

    My win in January was $10,870. This is actually a little less than my average win for a month, at least for the past few years.

    So my ROI was 123.4%. Do I think that much ROI is extroardinary? No. I think it's in range of the overall edge.

    I hit 3 W-2G's for $4800. Did I get lucky? Not really. One was a 102 for 1 payoff, one was a 148 for 1 payoff, and one was a 182 for 1 payoff. That's not really big payoffs.

    I've played the game the W2'G's came off of a gillion times. I have an entry point in an accumulator game and I'm playing to get to free spin mode. There's a ton of variance. I might not get jackshit, or I might get a 10 for 1 payoff or 40 for 1 but the big payoffs do come in on this game. You have to continually rinse and repeat to suck the money out of it. I don't remember exactly but I think my biggest payoff was around 350 for 1 on this game.

    I don't think I ran extremely lucky in January. For the amount of wager I think I ran pretty good but nothing extraordinary.

    Another thing is this stuff in not really a grind to me. I don't work it that hard. I'm not on the casino floor more than a few hours a day.

    There are slot AP's that make a lot more than me and more power to them. I'm happy with what I do and the pace I work it. Don't care to get involved in anything else.

    I hang out in spots where the other AP's aren't. And I do a lot of cruising the scenic byways, national parks, state parks, historical districts, etc.

    Should be fun tracking the wager against the earn this year to get an idea of the overall edge.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  15. #135
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    This year I'm doing something I've never done before. I'm tracking wager against earn on a monthly basis. I want to see what it looks like over a one year period. I want to see how much wager I run in a year and how much I make from it.

    The reason is because, as Mission says, on most stuff we don't know the exact advantage we have, we just know we have an edge. And there is a lot of difference in the size of the advantage from play to play.

    But I think pros in other areas like BJ, Sportsbetting, Poker, don't realize just how big the edges are that machine pros work.

    And also how little effort is put into it.

    In the month of January my total wager was $46,463

    My win in January was $10,870. This is actually a little less than my average win for a month, at least for the past few years.

    So my ROI was 123.4%. Do I think that much ROI is extroardinary? No. I think it's in range of the overall edge.

    I hit 3 W-2G's for $4800. Did I get lucky? Not really. One was a 102 for 1 payoff, one was a 148 for 1 payoff, and one was a 182 for 1 payoff. That's not really big payoffs.

    I've played the game the W2'G's came off of a gillion times. I have an entry point in an accumulator game and I'm playing to get to free spin mode. There's a ton of variance. I might not get jackshit, or I might get a 10 for 1 payoff or 40 for 1 but the big payoffs do come in on this game. You have to continually rinse and repeat to suck the money out of it. I don't remember exactly but I think my biggest payoff was around 350 for 1 on this game.

    I don't think I ran extremely lucky in January. For the amount of wager I think I ran pretty good but nothing extraordinary.

    Another thing is this stuff in not really a grind to me. I don't work it that hard. I'm not on the casino floor more than a few hours a day.

    There are slot AP's that make a lot more than me and more power to them. I'm happy with what I do and the pace I work it. Don't care to get involved in anything else.

    I hang out in spots where the other AP's aren't. And I do a lot of cruising the scenic byways, national parks, state parks, historical districts, etc.

    Should be fun tracking the wager against the earn this year to get an idea of the overall edge.
    So you're averaging about $130K a year whereas Acuntinquestion has to take out markers. Apparently getting a near perfect score on his SAT doesn't carry over to gambling prowess. LMFAO:
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    I've been on a crazy downswing and am paper cash broke. I want to take very low 5 figures to LV.. Well I don't want to TAKE it, I would like to just acquire it at the casino.
    Last edited by tableplay; 02-02-2023 at 07:04 PM.

  16. #136
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    So, you're averaging about $130K a year whereas Acuntinquestion has to take out markers. Apparently getting a near perfect score on his SAT doesn't carry over to gambling prowess. LMFAO:
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    I've been on a crazy downswing and am paper cash broke. I want to take very low 5 figures to LV. Well, I don't want to TAKE it, I would like to just acquire it at the casino.
    Shots Fired!

  17. #137
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    So, you're averaging about $130K a year whereas Acuntinquestion has to take out markers. Apparently getting a near perfect score on his SAT doesn't carry over to gambling prowess. LMFAO:
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    I've been on a crazy downswing and am paper cash broke. I want to take very low 5 figures to LV. Well, I don't want to TAKE it, I would like to just acquire it at the casino.
    Shots Fired!
    The return fire will probably be something along the lines that I was wedgied, made fun of and beaten up in high school even though I wasn't.

  18. #138
    Originally Posted by TheGrimReaper View Post
    Nothing like jumping the tracks all the way to trying to discredit either of the above, let alone by evil tactics. Not even a matter of discrediting either, because neither has, ever, provided even the simplest proof of any significant thus income. Given how easy that may be, offset by the endless goddamn gambling essays to nowhere, day in and out for the last couple of decades, then discrediting someone above remains in the realm of Tasha's similarly daily shit about Guns and Roses. Regardless, the pattern has only been to conclusively show the persons, one by one, to be worthless sacks of lying shit, aka non-starters. The only evidence of any thus thing around here was my quote of a casino executive, who noted that vulturing slots was strictly a low-income lifestyle. You guys can talk till blue in the face, but, it is what it is.
    Oh, I neglected to mention that there's virtually no one here, let alone at any time in the over past ten years since the forum got going. However, a come-lately relatively very small bunch of disgruntled so-called AP's, from the WoV, joined the forum, and, then, wrote that the so-called AP's remaining there were full of it.

    Years ago, Mickey wrote that what he [supposedly] does can't be done, anywhere else, [if, ever,] or in Nevada. The constant storyteller guy, who was never able to sell any of it for anything, although he tried to sucker people into a wager about his being able to make $500 a day, from 8 am, to midnight, if not sooner, but, went on to joke about having an accomplice thus set-up the machines before playing them, as if such were needed whether he were legit. Interestingly, now he claims that it takes him only a few hours a day, or whenever he plays. And, he seems to have forgotten the days that it didn't. (I thought that he slowed down because of health problems, a few years ago. Regardless, I let it to him to fish out his posts about what he made in which years. Not my job to discredit him, let alone a bunch of internet stories to a few strangers who on par believe everything overly stupid.)

    Now he spouts off about tracking every dollar in and out, for a year, even though he, supposedly, already knows his supposed average win each month, and, I guess, the coin-in, too. Obviously, it's all just more fucked-up story telling from the guy who couldn't sell any of it, let alone because no one gives a shit, let alone about expected value however defined. Just a bit of shit in an essentially shitty book he stumbled across, but just couldn't get out of his drunken head. To go through all of that, but, still never really or actually prove anything.

    Funny odd, too, how all the supposedly half-way normal or reputable thus millionaires living the high life in Las Vegas never seem to find their way to any of the thus forums. Instead, we are always left with the increasingly boring antics of the likes of Monet & Tablepooey, let alone AiQ, and, Tasha & MrV. The true trolls, the ones supposedly with so much money, etc, going for them, as if they cared, that they just can't find something better to do somewhere else with someone else. Gay and other health issues, Penn. State quackery, going from the obviously functionally illiterate, to a bunch of expensive words that just could never mean something side by side. Chronic family, and other, issues that can't be laid to rest. Yet among all the supposed thus millionaires, there was not a one to really or actually prove out any of it. No one smart enough, lazy enough, crazy enough, sick enough, bored enough. But, the same old responses of, well, the other guy must be jealous of it, must have lost, a troll, and, so on. The other guy is too anonymous, or, not anonymous enough. And on, and on. Mendelson and every one else just plain gave up on Crimm, in Montana, in terms of helping him to properly prove himself. Just to much crazy shit in every way possible.

    So, yeah, sure, old Mickey on oxygen in a scooter hit the big jackpots, but, doesn't care to do anything else. Even so, who's to know but the other ten or so jackass strangers on the internet? They won't even be writing it on his tombstone. "Here lies Mickey Crimm, the guy who traveled from one shithole casino to the other, but, only after he "picked himself up" from a another lifetime of riding the rails drunk.

    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    So, you're averaging about $130K a year whereas Acuntinquestion has to take out markers. Apparently getting a near perfect score on his SAT doesn't carry over to gambling prowess. LMFAO:

    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    I've been on a crazy downswing and am paper cash broke. I want to take very low 5 figures to LV. Well, I don't want to TAKE it, I would like to just acquire it at the casino.
    Shots Fired!
    The return fire will probably be something along the lines that I was wedgied, made fun of and beaten up in high school even though I wasn't.
    No wonder. But, what the heck to expect for a self-reflective (hardcore internal narrative) armchair asshole like the rest of you? I mean, only a tree makes a noise in the forest with no one around. When people do it, it's "just plain weird", except, I guess, for the resultant anagrams with gematria.
    Last edited by TheGrimReaper; 02-02-2023 at 10:00 PM.
    Drug Rehabilitation + Haliburton County for the local thus clinics. The one in Haliburton town temporarily closed yields the closest, 4cast. 137 posts at NetVoid's forum, + 184 here =321.0, to overlap 3456 at the 3's, as the dimensions from 0 to 6, four by four.bb

    The unused, Zodiac bits: 'dakadu, Lake+151?s (164 char. max) seed the final two lines of the anagram solver -of lies/revenge. Franc Baconis for the capital L yields 141=69+ᘔᘖ; 397=[(10-6+9-1)^3-(1+ᘔ+ᘖ+1)^3].

    Thanks. CIA.0!

    Ha.

  19. #139
    IN a games like video poker and keno it's easy to figure expected value. Keno is the easiest to figure because the probabilities are fixed.

    The equation is probability times payoff. Two-spot is easy example

    total combinations 80 X 79/2 X 1 = 3,160

    combinations that make the two spot 20 X 19/2 X 1 = 190

    3160/190 = 16.63158

    If the two-spot pays 12 for 1:

    15/16.63158 = 90.19%

    So the EV for the player is 90.19%

    The EV for the house is 109.81%

    Keno is easy to figure because it's easy to calculate the probabilites against the payoffs. With the typical slot machine the public generally doesn't know exactly what the payback is. Except we know what the parameters are, somewhere between 75% and 100%.

    But every line pay that can be hit has a definite probability. Mixed Bars might be 1 in 20, Single Bars 1 in 50, etc. The public generally doesn't know those probabilities but there is a definite EV there.

    It's the same with sportsbetting. Against a -110 line you have to win 52.4% to break even. So if you are looking to turn a profit then you must limit your bets to only those side you think have a greater than 52.4% chance of covering.

    Probability theory definitely comes into play here. You think it's probable that team A has a greater than 52.4% chance of covering. Exactly what that probability is....is hard to quantify. But it's definitely there. Expected Value is definitely there.

    2 hours before game time the line is sitting on 7. But an hour before game the Salt Lake City wood choppers show up and hammer the favorite as they always do. The line moves to 7.5, then 8, then 8.5. It reaches 9 about 20 minutes before game.

    I go up and take the dog +9. On a typical game I might not know exactly what the EV is but I know it's a hell of a lot better than the EV of those that took the dog at +7.

    I did quite well with this method when I was there. And it don't matter what the hell redietz thinks about it.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  20. #140
    Mickey, I too am big on keeping track of my expected value for each session and as a running total throughout the year. I then know exactly where I am vs expectation at any given time. Fairly easy to do in blackjack with the help of simulation, using an average EV per round played. There are many benefits to me doing this, but mainly I just like to know where I am at. My brother does not follow my example on this. Sometimes when we are discussing things and I ask how he is doing, he will say I am up $32k. When I ask vs what expectation, he says something like "don't know, don't care". I just feel like a player playing seriously should know how he is doing in regard to expectation.


    Now there are exceptions. I was reading an account of 'someone's' baccarat play on another forum. Here are the last 3 days:

    Day 7 play.
    Baccarat.
    Actually, really nice work. Way to go! no really big bets needed, either.
    +22000


    Day 8 play.
    Baccarat.
    I got creamed one session. But then I won more than I had lost in a re-match.
    +6800


    On one of the recent sessions, I was down...mmm, about -75K. I rallied, quickly at first, then gradually, to end the session at +55K. Easier somehow to do when you have to! And that entire 130K came from just...20K.

    Get creamded....just win more in a 'rematch'. Down 55k, just win 130k to finish ahead 65k. Just win baby! Like that is the way real play works.

    However, I must say I do like the congratulatory note to oneself of "really nice work, way to go!". Reminds me of the stars and stickers my kindergarten teacher used to stick on our assignments. I keep fairly simple records of my play, but I think I will start adding little congratulatory remarks to myself.


    On a serious note, I don't think it is a coincidence that certain players (plural), who many of us have a hard time believing never speak of EV. I don't think they even understand EV. I remember one guy that used to post here and occasionally returns used to mock my discussions of EV, referring to it as "fantasy buck", saying things like do you pay for food with "fantasy bucks"? With all the nonsense, it is comments like this that you know who knows what they are talking about and who doesn't (Rob).
    Last edited by kewlJ; 02-03-2023 at 10:28 AM.

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