Originally Posted by
accountinquestion
This is actually a complete misrepresentation of my position, which is why account paraphrased rather than finding a direct quote from me.
As I have said on this forum multiple times, the only handicapper I know who I believe won every year was Larry Fletcher, AKA Southern Comfort, who primarily used arbitrage and middles shooting across most sports to make half of his profits. Fletcher had programs red alerting him to arbitrage opportunities before most people had internet.
The problems with "taking advantage of soft numbers" and middles shooting is to make any money, you have to have well into five digits spread across a dozen or more shops, meaning an outlay of half a million dollars or more. The other problem is that taking advantage of allegedly "soft numbers" usually gets you into the kind of bind that people who bet "soft numbers" would have found themselves in this NFL playoff season. The numbers moves are mostly wrong and you get killed.
The other element to this that requires expertise is anticipating where numbers will move. That requires much, much more than following injuries and "smart money."
By the way, the article is sad. You can't define EV in a non-mathematical universe, which is what pointspreads are. Spreads aren't coin flips, boys, or haven't you figured that out? Jesus, account, you're better than this.
Let me give you boys a hint. Whatever most folks prefer to believe regarding any aspect of gambling is probably wrong. Whatever most people prefer to believe, whatever they are motivated to believe, don't believe it. Simple rule of thumb. Rarely wrong.