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Thread: sports betting 301 for Redietz.

  1. #1
    So Redietz had a thread awhile back aimed directly at me titled "something something sports betting 101".

    He believes one can only handicap to win at sports betting. Well most everyone else disagrees. I found this somewhat interesting and thought that Redietz would benefit the most from it.

    https://analytics.bet/articles/how-winners-win-a-framework-for-breaking-down-expected-value/
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

  2. #2
    And how high did these guys place in the Poughkeepsie Gazette's 31st Regional Wiseguys Invitational NFL Handicapping Contest?

  3. #3
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    So Redietz had a thread awhile back aimed directly at me titled "something something sports betting 101".

    He believes one can only handicap to win at sports betting. Well most everyone else disagrees. I found this somewhat interesting and thought that Redietz would benefit the most from it.

    https://analytics.bet/articles/how-winners-win-a-framework-for-breaking-down-expected-value/
    This is actually a complete misrepresentation of my position, which is why account paraphrased rather than finding a direct quote from me.

    As I have said on this forum multiple times, the only handicapper I know who I believe won every year was Larry Fletcher, AKA Southern Comfort, who primarily used arbitrage and middles shooting across most sports to make half of his profits. Fletcher had programs red alerting him to arbitrage opportunities before most people had internet.

    The problems with "taking advantage of soft numbers" and middles shooting is to make any money, you have to have well into five digits spread across a dozen or more shops, meaning an outlay of half a million dollars or more. The other problem is that taking advantage of allegedly "soft numbers" usually gets you into the kind of bind that people who bet "soft numbers" would have found themselves in this NFL playoff season. The numbers moves are mostly wrong and you get killed.

    The other element to this that requires expertise is anticipating where numbers will move. That requires much, much more than following injuries and "smart money."

    By the way, the article is sad. You can't define EV in a non-mathematical universe, which is what pointspreads are. Spreads aren't coin flips, boys, or haven't you figured that out? Jesus, account, you're better than this.

    Let me give you boys a hint. Whatever most folks prefer to believe regarding any aspect of gambling is probably wrong. Whatever most people prefer to believe, whatever they are motivated to believe, don't believe it. Simple rule of thumb. Rarely wrong.
    Last edited by redietz; 01-30-2023 at 08:32 PM.

  4. #4
    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post
    And how high did these guys place in the Poughkeepsie Gazette's 31st Regional Wiseguys Invitational NFL Handicapping Contest?
    Recently, it was TopBet's NFL Picks Pool, where I finished first out of 1328 entries. I like to participate in these contests as it publicly demonstrates what I can do, and anonymous dudes like smurgerburger and account cannot.

    Those who can, do. Those who can't, post anonymously and don't.

  5. #5
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    So Redietz had a thread awhile back aimed directly at me titled "something something sports betting 101".

    He believes one can only handicap to win at sports betting. Well most everyone else disagrees. I found this somewhat interesting and thought that Redietz would benefit the most from it.

    https://analytics.bet/articles/how-winners-win-a-framework-for-breaking-down-expected-value/
    This is actually a complete misrepresentation of my position, which is why account paraphrased rather than finding a direct quote from me.

    As I have said on this forum multiple times, the only handicapper I know who I believe won every year was Larry Fletcher, AKA Southern Comfort, who primarily used arbitrage and middles shooting across most sports to make half of his profits. Fletcher had programs red alerting him to arbitrage opportunities before most people had internet.

    The problems with "taking advantage of soft numbers" and middles shooting is to make any money, you have to have well into five digits spread across a dozen or more shops, meaning an outlay of half a million dollars or more. The other problem is that taking advantage of allegedly "soft numbers" usually gets you into the kind of bind that people who bet "soft numbers" would have found themselves in this NFL playoff season. The numbers moves are mostly wrong and you get killed.

    The other element to this that requires expertise is anticipating where numbers will move. That requires much, much more than following injuries and "smart money."

    By the way, the article is sad. You can't define EV in a non-mathematical universe, which is what pointspreads are. Spreads aren't coin flips, boys, or haven't you figured that out? Jesus, account, you're better than this.

    Let me give you boys a hint. Whatever most folks prefer to believe regarding any aspect of gambling is probably wrong. Whatever most people prefer to believe, whatever they are motivated to believe, don't believe it. Simple rule of thumb. Rarely wrong.
    The article is sad because you can't grasp the concepts. Now I'm also sad.

    This is exactly why I posted it - hoping to help you grow in your field. To help you understand a bit more beyond your little world. Looks like I have failed. total bummer.

    Regardless, to anyone else - It is definitely worth a read. I'm not suggesting it'll show you how to beat sports but it does give a framework for the various ways people beat sports and how one might look at it mathematically.
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

  6. #6
    Curiously redietz, if you don't believe EV is a thing how do you bet straight sports profitably via a regular book and not some contest in Poughkeepsie?
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

  7. #7
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I like to participate in these contests as it publicly demonstrates what I can do.

  8. #8
    AccountinQuestion, man you used to be a normal dude. Now all you do is troll. Me, Red. And oh yeah you make your political, climate change arguments. Man just NOT who you used to be.

    I don't know why you guys give Redietz such a hard time. Is it because he is a winning sports better and you guys aren't? I am not either but I am damn well smart enough to know that he is. There just are no red flags.

    I have to admit, I didn't know of, never even considered, the contest angle that Red goes for. If entry into these contests are free based on whatever other wagers or play you are giving the casino, that is hidden +EV, advantage play. Nothing less.

    I can't know if Redietz only tells us about the contests he is doing well in and doesn't mention the ones he tanks in, but if entry is free so what? That is very different than a player like Maddog that only tells you of winning sessions and not losing. A contest entered for free that you do bad in is not costing one thin dime.

    It has been a few years now, but my first half dozen or so years in Vegas, when I and my late partner were putting through a lot of VP, play, I would qualify for a lot of different contests and drawings. I won 3 different five figure drawings and contests, a truck, mortgage/rent payments for a year and a 10k weekly football contest that the entry for me was free. This kind of thing is hidden value. Hidden EV.

    I just don't know what you guy's problem is. Show me something redietz has said or claimed that really does raise red flags, because I haven't seen a thing. All I see is people repeating fucktard Rob Singer's jealousy induced accusation.

    AccountinQuestion, dude, you have to know that if you are on the same page as a coach belly in these discussions, you are on the wrong side.

  9. #9

  10. #10
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post

    I just don't know what you guy's problem is. Show me something redietz has said or claimed that really does raise red flags, because I haven't seen a thing. All I see is people repeating fucktard Rob Singer's jealousy induced accusation.

    AccountinQuestion, dude, you have to know that if you are on the same page as a coach belly in these discussions, you are on the wrong side.
    Maybe I am on the wrong side or maybe Redietz asks for it so much that he deserves it from both of us.

    I'm kidding while trying to inform. If you can't see Redietz's constant condescension and the 'oh you guys are anonymous' nonsense then that is on you. When you call him out on it the ONLY valid reason to not be anonymous is 'well maybe you want to be in a movie some day'. That in itself speaks to who Redietz is. All paraphrases but the gist was there.

    You're missing a few yourself if you can't pick up on any of this. My post was no worse than Redietz starting the same style of thread aimed at me.

    Fuck, look at how he doubles-down on how EV isn't a thing. Read the article. It is explain what is typically considered EV and all generalized successful sports bettors should readily understand such concepts. Yet you get more condescension from Redietz when it is clear as day to almost all successful sports bettors.

    BTW what I posted was far more valuable than whatever it was Redietz typed up. I promise you.
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

  11. #11
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    There just are no red flags.
    https://files4.revize.com/johnsontn/...uent_taxes.pdf
    What the fucK! What am I supposed to be looking at/for?

  12. #12
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post

    I just don't know what you guy's problem is. Show me something redietz has said or claimed that really does raise red flags, because I haven't seen a thing. All I see is people repeating fucktard Rob Singer's jealousy induced accusation.

    AccountinQuestion, dude, you have to know that if you are on the same page as a coach belly in these discussions, you are on the wrong side.
    Maybe I am on the wrong side or maybe Redietz asks for it so much that he deserves it from both of us.

    I'm kidding while trying to inform. If you can't see Redietz's constant condescension and the 'oh you guys are anonymous' nonsense then that is on you. When you call him out on it the ONLY valid reason to not be anonymous is 'well maybe you want to be in a movie some day'. That in itself speaks to who Redietz is. All paraphrases but the gist was there.

    You're missing a few yourself if you can't pick up on any of this. My post was no worse than Redietz starting the same style of thread aimed at me.

    Fuck, look at how he doubles-down on how EV isn't a thing. Read the article. It is explain what is typically considered EV and all generalized successful sports bettors should readily understand such concepts. Yet you get more condescension from Redietz when it is clear as day to almost all successful sports bettors.

    BTW what I posted was far more valuable than whatever it was Redietz typed up. I promise you.
    Redeitz is condescending sometimes? Big woop! Lots of AP's and winning players are. Ever read Grosjean? How about jbjb, the almighty hole-carder who looks down on card counters?

    The anonymity argument, he is flat out wrong. I don't know why he doesn't seem to understand the issue with real players using their real names when there is an industry (several actually) searching for that information and attempting to identify and stop us. Alan had the same position. I understood it from Alan, I don't from redietz. But that has nothing to do with, nor in any way means he isn't a successful sports better doing what he claims. I just have seen no red flags with anything on topic. Have you. If so do tell.

    I remember early on, I referred to or included redietz among the AP crowd on this very forum. He seemed to take exception to that, saying he wasn't an AP. Ok whatever. I am not sure he thinks in terms of EV, expected value or expected win, based on the math, like most traditional AP's do, but for sure the contests and approach of free entry into contests is an AP play. It is free +EV. Non AP's might use the term "free roll".

    Dude, there really needs to be less of this trying to discredit someone because you don't like their attitude, or you think they are condescending, or any other non-gambling thing about them that you may not like. That is bullshit. I live it everyday on these forums. People don't like things about me that have zero to do with my blackjack and card counting AP play and spend enormous amounts of energy trying to discredit me, based on that totally unrelated thing.

    Redietz can be a dick. He also can come across as weird sometimes. I get tired of hearing that he knows some sort of expert on every topic like his ex-girlfriend in high schools, brothers best friend , but again dude, show me one thing he has said that seriously raises red flags about his sports betting claims. And please, if what you are going to give me is some, 10 year list of people in East bubblefuck Tennessee with over a million names, please direct me to what you think is relevant and how someone disputing or not paying some local property tax proves anything.

    I mean seriously, I will use a redeitz line: I don't know if he bets sports a couple months a year (football season) and works in a brothel in Pahrump 8 months as a male prostitute. What I do know is I have not seen any red flags, and for me, he passes the knows what he is talking about vs just talking test. If you have some legitimate concern, hopefully something stronger than he is condescending, please share.

  13. #13
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post
    And how high did these guys place in the Poughkeepsie Gazette's 31st Regional Wiseguys Invitational NFL Handicapping Contest?
    Recently, it was TopBet's NFL Picks Pool, where I finished first out of 1328 entries. I like to participate in these contests as it publicly demonstrates what I can do, and anonymous dudes like smurgerburger and account cannot.

    Those who can, do. Those who can't, post anonymously and don't.

    But why would anyone care?

  14. #14
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post

    I just don't know what you guy's problem is. Show me something redietz has said or claimed that really does raise red flags, because I haven't seen a thing. All I see is people repeating fucktard Rob Singer's jealousy induced accusation.

    AccountinQuestion, dude, you have to know that if you are on the same page as a coach belly in these discussions, you are on the wrong side.
    Maybe I am on the wrong side or maybe Redietz asks for it so much that he deserves it from both of us.

    I'm kidding while trying to inform. If you can't see Redietz's constant condescension and the 'oh you guys are anonymous' nonsense then that is on you. When you call him out on it the ONLY valid reason to not be anonymous is 'well maybe you want to be in a movie some day'. That in itself speaks to who Redietz is. All paraphrases but the gist was there.

    You're missing a few yourself if you can't pick up on any of this. My post was no worse than Redietz starting the same style of thread aimed at me.

    Fuck, look at how he doubles-down on how EV isn't a thing. Read the article. It is explain what is typically considered EV and all generalized successful sports bettors should readily understand such concepts. Yet you get more condescension from Redietz when it is clear as day to almost all successful sports bettors.

    BTW what I posted was far more valuable than whatever it was Redietz typed up. I promise you.
    Redeitz is condescending sometimes? Big woop! Lots of AP's and winning players are. Ever read Grosjean? How about jbjb, the almighty hole-carder who looks down on card counters?

    The anonymity argument, he is flat out wrong. I don't know why he doesn't seem to understand the issue with real players using their real names when there is an industry (several actually) searching for that information and attempting to identify and stop us. Alan had the same position. I understood it from Alan, I don't from redietz. But that has nothing to do with, nor in any way means he isn't a successful sports better doing what he claims. I just have seen no red flags with anything on topic. Have you. If so do tell.

    I remember early on, I referred to or included redietz among the AP crowd on this very forum. He seemed to take exception to that, saying he wasn't an AP. Ok whatever. I am not sure he thinks in terms of EV, expected value or expected win, based on the math, like most traditional AP's do, but for sure the contests and approach of free entry into contests is an AP play. It is free +EV. Non AP's might use the term "free roll".

    Dude, there really needs to be less of this trying to discredit someone because you don't like their attitude, or you think they are condescending, or any other non-gambling thing about them that you may not like. That is bullshit. I live it everyday on these forums. People don't like things about me that have zero to do with my blackjack and card counting AP play and spend enormous amounts of energy trying to discredit me, based on that totally unrelated thing.

    Redietz can be a dick. He also can come across as weird sometimes. I get tired of hearing that he knows some sort of expert on every topic like his ex-girlfriend in high schools, brothers best friend , but again dude, show me one thing he has said that seriously raises red flags about his sports betting claims. And please, if what you are going to give me is some, 10 year list of people in East bubblefuck Tennessee with over a million names, please direct me to what you think is relevant and how someone disputing or not paying some local property tax proves anything.

    I mean seriously, I will use a redeitz line: I don't know if he bets sports a couple months a year (football season) and works in a brothel in Pahrump 8 months as a male prostitute. What I do know is I have not seen any red flags, and for me, he passes the knows what he is talking about vs just talking test. If you have some legitimate concern, hopefully something stronger than he is condescending, please share.
    I've never tried to discredit him like you seem to think. I discredit how he seems to think other people can't beat sports etc. His view on sports-betting is narrow and outdated. I'm not even sure why he posts here since he seems to think everyone else is full of shit. You probably don't get this for various reasons I will not enumerate.

    He can be a dick and I can be a dick. If he was a dick in the normal sense I wouldn't care.

    The fact that he is behind on property taxes suggests he isn't as successful as he claims but I'd never care enough about Redietz to go through the time to dig up such things. I also don't think it necessarily indicates that much.

    The short of it - he is fun to wind up - much like yourself. Thats half of what this board is. Everyone trying to wind up everyone else. It can get nasty but I will never try to take it to someone's personal life.

    Thats about it.

    Still waiting to hear from Redietz on how you can successfully bet sports with normal bookie wager and still not use what the rest of the successful sports betting world calls "EV". My guess is if you ask guys who have made 100K over sports-betting none of them will have the same impression of EV. Yet here we have Redietz trying to condescendingly claim otherwise because he fails to understand a fairly simple concept. You NEED EV (or whatever you wish to call it) to know if a bet is worth betting. He just doesn't get that so it sorta throws into question his prowess overall.
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

  15. #15
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post

    The short of it - he is fun to wind up - much like yourself. Thats half of what this board is. Everyone trying to wind up everyone else. It can get nasty but I will never try to take it to someone's personal life.
    I still don't even see the property tax thing. In the link from smelly belly, I see lists of literally a million names and addresses coving a number of years. I took a couple minutes and looked at several years under the "R"'s. I don't see anything. I did not look for Nathan Forrest drive or wherever he lives. That would have taken too long. Like you, I don't think it means much. But now, my curiosity peeked, I would like to see what coach belly thinks is his "gottch ya" moment in this case. Could you or someone point me to it.

    As far as what I quoted above, I guess this is one of the thing that makes me different than most on this forum.
    I don't need to try to discredit or tear anyone else down to build myself up. You CAN NOT even build yourself up by tearing others down. Show me one instance where I ever tried to discredit a real AP or winning player.

    If I am challenging someone it is because their claims can't be either mathematically or because that is not the way things work.

  16. #16
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Those who can, do. Those who can't, post anonymously and don't.
    Those that can, pay their property tax.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  17. #17
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by coach belly View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    There just are no red flags.
    https://files4.revize.com/johnsontn/...uent_taxes.pdf
    What the fucK! What am I supposed to be looking at/for?
    It's a list of those who are delinquent on property taxes in Johnson City, Tennessee.

    It's an alphabetical list. All you have to do is scroll down to Dietz, Robert to see that the "highly successful sport bettor Bob Dietz" is delinquent on the property taxes for the two-room shack he lives in.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 01-31-2023 at 12:24 PM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  18. #18
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    So Redietz had a thread awhile back aimed directly at me titled "something something sports betting 101".

    He believes one can only handicap to win at sports betting. Well most everyone else disagrees. I found this somewhat interesting and thought that Redietz would benefit the most from it.

    https://analytics.bet/articles/how-winners-win-a-framework-for-breaking-down-expected-value/
    This is actually a complete misrepresentation of my position, which is why account paraphrased rather than finding a direct quote from me.

    As I have said on this forum multiple times, the only handicapper I know who I believe won every year was Larry Fletcher, AKA Southern Comfort, who primarily used arbitrage and middles shooting across most sports to make half of his profits. Fletcher had programs red alerting him to arbitrage opportunities before most people had internet.

    The problems with "taking advantage of soft numbers" and middles shooting is to make any money, you have to have well into five digits spread across a dozen or more shops, meaning an outlay of half a million dollars or more. The other problem is that taking advantage of allegedly "soft numbers" usually gets you into the kind of bind that people who bet "soft numbers" would have found themselves in this NFL playoff season. The numbers moves are mostly wrong and you get killed.

    The other element to this that requires expertise is anticipating where numbers will move. That requires much, much more than following injuries and "smart money."

    By the way, the article is sad. You can't define EV in a non-mathematical universe, which is what pointspreads are. Spreads aren't coin flips, boys, or haven't you figured that out? Jesus, account, you're better than this.

    Let me give you boys a hint. Whatever most folks prefer to believe regarding any aspect of gambling is probably wrong. Whatever most people prefer to believe, whatever they are motivated to believe, don't believe it. Simple rule of thumb. Rarely wrong.

    All I know is not you or queerJ have made what I have gambling. I would also bet I’ve made more for other people then you guys combined. This includes more then 7figs taking sports bonus money without knowing anything about betting sports. Most of you are frauds who just write bull shit long post

  19. #19
    When I read this line in the PlusEV Analytics article, "idealistic try-hards that think they are better than everyone" I immediately thought of redietz.

    BTW, PlusEV Analytics follows me on Twitter.

    EV (expected value) pertains to all gambling games. Sportsbetting is no exception.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  20. #20
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    AccountinQuestion, man you used to be a normal dude. Now all you do is troll. Me, Red. And oh yeah you make your political, climate change arguments. Man just NOT who you used to be.

    I don't know why you guys give Redietz such a hard time. Is it because he is a winning sports better and you guys aren't? I am not either but I am damn well smart enough to know that he is. There just are no red flags.

    I have to admit, I didn't know of, never even considered, the contest angle that Red goes for. If entry into these contests are free based on whatever other wagers or play you are giving the casino, that is hidden +EV, advantage play. Nothing less.

    I can't know if Redietz only tells us about the contests he is doing well in and doesn't mention the ones he tanks in, but if entry is free so what? That is very different than a player like Maddog that only tells you of winning sessions and not losing. A contest entered for free that you do bad in is not costing one thin dime.

    It has been a few years now, but my first half dozen or so years in Vegas, when I and my late partner were putting through a lot of VP, play, I would qualify for a lot of different contests and drawings. I won 3 different five figure drawings and contests, a truck, mortgage/rent payments for a year and a 10k weekly football contest that the entry for me was free. This kind of thing is hidden value. Hidden EV.

    I just don't know what you guy's problem is. Show me something redietz has said or claimed that really does raise red flags, because I haven't seen a thing. All I see is people repeating fucktard Rob Singer's jealousy induced accusation.

    AccountinQuestion, dude, you have to know that if you are on the same page as a coach belly in these discussions, you are on the wrong side.

    Winning sport bettor you say ? Literally if you didn’t make a minimum of 200k the last few years just taking the bonus money then are you really a sports Bettor ? Are you really an AP ? Red flags for me that confirm fraudulent status are posters with 1000s of short essays posted on gambling forums across the internet. Guys like you can’t win because all your time is consumed posting online.

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