So Redietz had a thread awhile back aimed directly at me titled "something something sports betting 101".
He believes one can only handicap to win at sports betting. Well most everyone else disagrees. I found this somewhat interesting and thought that Redietz would benefit the most from it.
https://analytics.bet/articles/how-winners-win-a-framework-for-breaking-down-expected-value/
It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"
And how high did these guys place in the Poughkeepsie Gazette's 31st Regional Wiseguys Invitational NFL Handicapping Contest?
Recently, it was TopBet's NFL Picks Pool, where I finished first out of 1328 entries. I like to participate in these contests as it publicly demonstrates what I can do, and anonymous dudes like smurgerburger and account cannot.Originally Posted by smurgerburger
Those who can, do. Those who can't, post anonymously and don't.
Originally Posted by redietz
Originally Posted by redietzRecently, it was TopBet's NFL Picks Pool, where I finished first out of 1328 entries. I like to participate in these contests as it publicly demonstrates what I can do, and anonymous dudes like smurgerburger and account cannot.Originally Posted by smurgerburger
Those who can, do. Those who can't, post anonymously and don't.
But why would anyone care?
Those that can, pay their property tax.Originally Posted by redietz
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
When I read this line in the PlusEV Analytics article, "idealistic try-hards that think they are better than everyone" I immediately thought of redietz.
BTW, PlusEV Analytics follows me on Twitter.
EV (expected value) pertains to all gambling games. Sportsbetting is no exception.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
This is actually a complete misrepresentation of my position, which is why account paraphrased rather than finding a direct quote from me.Originally Posted by accountinquestion
As I have said on this forum multiple times, the only handicapper I know who I believe won every year was Larry Fletcher, AKA Southern Comfort, who primarily used arbitrage and middles shooting across most sports to make half of his profits. Fletcher had programs red alerting him to arbitrage opportunities before most people had internet.
The problems with "taking advantage of soft numbers" and middles shooting is to make any money, you have to have well into five digits spread across a dozen or more shops, meaning an outlay of half a million dollars or more. The other problem is that taking advantage of allegedly "soft numbers" usually gets you into the kind of bind that people who bet "soft numbers" would have found themselves in this NFL playoff season. The numbers moves are mostly wrong and you get killed.
The other element to this that requires expertise is anticipating where numbers will move. That requires much, much more than following injuries and "smart money."
By the way, the article is sad. You can't define EV in a non-mathematical universe, which is what pointspreads are. Spreads aren't coin flips, boys, or haven't you figured that out? Jesus, account, you're better than this.
Let me give you boys a hint. Whatever most folks prefer to believe regarding any aspect of gambling is probably wrong. Whatever most people prefer to believe, whatever they are motivated to believe, don't believe it. Simple rule of thumb. Rarely wrong.
Last edited by redietz; 01-30-2023 at 08:32 PM.
The article is sad because you can't grasp the concepts.Originally Posted by redietzThis is actually a complete misrepresentation of my position, which is why account paraphrased rather than finding a direct quote from me.Originally Posted by accountinquestion
As I have said on this forum multiple times, the only handicapper I know who I believe won every year was Larry Fletcher, AKA Southern Comfort, who primarily used arbitrage and middles shooting across most sports to make half of his profits. Fletcher had programs red alerting him to arbitrage opportunities before most people had internet.
The problems with "taking advantage of soft numbers" and middles shooting is to make any money, you have to have well into five digits spread across a dozen or more shops, meaning an outlay of half a million dollars or more. The other problem is that taking advantage of allegedly "soft numbers" usually gets you into the kind of bind that people who bet "soft numbers" would have found themselves in this NFL playoff season. The numbers moves are mostly wrong and you get killed.
The other element to this that requires expertise is anticipating where numbers will move. That requires much, much more than following injuries and "smart money."
By the way, the article is sad. You can't define EV in a non-mathematical universe, which is what pointspreads are. Spreads aren't coin flips, boys, or haven't you figured that out? Jesus, account, you're better than this.
Let me give you boys a hint. Whatever most folks prefer to believe regarding any aspect of gambling is probably wrong. Whatever most people prefer to believe, whatever they are motivated to believe, don't believe it. Simple rule of thumb. Rarely wrong.Now I'm also sad.
This is exactly why I posted it - hoping to help you grow in your field. To help you understand a bit more beyond your little world. Looks like I have failed. total bummer.
Regardless, to anyone else - It is definitely worth a read. I'm not suggesting it'll show you how to beat sports but it does give a framework for the various ways people beat sports and how one might look at it mathematically.
It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"
Originally Posted by redietzThis is actually a complete misrepresentation of my position, which is why account paraphrased rather than finding a direct quote from me.Originally Posted by accountinquestion
As I have said on this forum multiple times, the only handicapper I know who I believe won every year was Larry Fletcher, AKA Southern Comfort, who primarily used arbitrage and middles shooting across most sports to make half of his profits. Fletcher had programs red alerting him to arbitrage opportunities before most people had internet.
The problems with "taking advantage of soft numbers" and middles shooting is to make any money, you have to have well into five digits spread across a dozen or more shops, meaning an outlay of half a million dollars or more. The other problem is that taking advantage of allegedly "soft numbers" usually gets you into the kind of bind that people who bet "soft numbers" would have found themselves in this NFL playoff season. The numbers moves are mostly wrong and you get killed.
The other element to this that requires expertise is anticipating where numbers will move. That requires much, much more than following injuries and "smart money."
By the way, the article is sad. You can't define EV in a non-mathematical universe, which is what pointspreads are. Spreads aren't coin flips, boys, or haven't you figured that out? Jesus, account, you're better than this.
Let me give you boys a hint. Whatever most folks prefer to believe regarding any aspect of gambling is probably wrong. Whatever most people prefer to believe, whatever they are motivated to believe, don't believe it. Simple rule of thumb. Rarely wrong.
All I know is not you or queerJ have made what I have gambling. I would also bet I’ve made more for other people then you guys combined. This includes more then 7figs taking sports bonus money without knowing anything about betting sports. Most of you are frauds who just write bull shit long post
Here's what I do know. We will call it Red Flag 101.Originally Posted by Seedvalue
When a poster say the things in this post like "I make more than you" or "I make 7 figures" or " my dick is bigger than yours". I immediately dismiss this person as a very insecure fucktard. And that is before we even get to the math.
Originally Posted by kewlJHere's what I do know. We will call it Red Flag 101.Originally Posted by Seedvalue
When a poster say the things in this post like "I make more than you" or "I make 7 figures" or " my dick is bigger than yours". I immediately dismiss this person as a very insecure fucktard. And that is before we even get to the math.
Let’s get to the math loser . A 12 inch ruler is easy to use. Lay my fat cock on one and Measure it easy .
Math lesson two let’s say each account in a particular state was worth approximately 17k in bonus signups. I’m not talking EV I’m talking literally betting both sides on two different accounts to guarantee a win. How hard do you think it is for someone who regularly runs 20 to 30 cards at one time to clear a million with their contacts ? Easy as 1 2 3 Gunplay
Some of us actually do real shit in the casinos others like you and red Just post online about what you think is possible or whatever.
There’s nothing you post that remotely makes anyone think you are real. Just because you plagiarize everything you have read online as your own doesn’t make it true. You post way to much do actually have time to make money in casinos.
Now you want everyone to believe your gay brother is posting on your accounts lol. What a freak
Originally Posted by SeedvalueOriginally Posted by kewlJHere's what I do know. We will call it Red Flag 101.Originally Posted by Seedvalue
When a poster say the things in this post like "I make more than you" or "I make 7 figures" or " my dick is bigger than yours". I immediately dismiss this person as a very insecure fucktard. And that is before we even get to the math.
Let’s get to the math loser . A 12 inch ruler is easy to use. Lay my fat cock on one and Measure it easy .
Math lesson two let’s say each account in a particular state was worth approximately 17k in bonus signups. I’m not talking EV I’m talking literally betting both sides on two different accounts to guarantee a win. How hard do you think it is for someone who regularly runs 20 to 30 cards at one time to clear a million with their contacts ? Easy as 1 2 3 Gunplay
Some of us actually do real shit in the casinos others like you and red Just post online about what you think is possible or whatever.
There’s nothing you post that remotely makes anyone think you are real. Just because you plagiarize everything you have read online as your own doesn’t make it true. You post way to much do actually have time to make money in casinos.
Now you want everyone to believe your gay brother is posting on your accounts lol. What a freak
The reason you can’t believe it is because you don’t even have 5 friends. You bring no value to others is it’s impossible to understand. So you make up shit like counting 2 tables and running a play you read about online as your own lol. You have the problem not me. Gay men always have these problems it’s well documented science.
BULL FUCKING SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Originally Posted by redietz
I suck at math and sports in general, but I could show someone with reasonable intelligence and dedication how to parlay (no pun intended ) their 20k into a nice bankroll without any handicapping or knowledge of sports whatsoever. Once you head down that road you start learning more and more as you go. it's amazing, all the different opportunities you will come across if you are dedicated and looking for such things.
Not everyone can become a wolf like you.Originally Posted by AxelWolfBULL FUCKING SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Originally Posted by redietz
I suck at math and sports in general, but I could show someone with reasonable intelligence and dedication how to parlay (no pun intended ) their 20k into a nice bankroll without any handicapping or knowledge of sports whatsoever. Once you head down that road you start learning more and more as you go. it's amazing, all the different opportunities you will come across if you are dedicated and looking for such things.
Ain't no wolfing involved. It's like a magic trick, it seems so impossible like magic, but once you see how the trick is done, it's often times simple stupid.Originally Posted by OzzyNot everyone can become a wolf like you.Originally Posted by AxelWolfBULL FUCKING SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Originally Posted by redietz
I suck at math and sports in general, but I could show someone with reasonable intelligence and dedication how to parlay (no pun intended ) their 20k into a nice bankroll without any handicapping or knowledge of sports whatsoever. Once you head down that road you start learning more and more as you go. it's amazing, all the different opportunities you will come across if you are dedicated and looking for such things.
No? You don't say?Originally Posted by AxelWolfAin't no wolfing involved. It's like a magic trick, it seems so impossible like magic, but once you see how the trick is done, it's often times simple stupid.Originally Posted by OzzyNot everyone can become a wolf like you.Originally Posted by AxelWolf
Too bad that the casinos don't hand out the brains like they, supposedly, according to Tablepooey, hand out the cash. Multi-billion dollar brains, but, you guys are left to the shit, let alone any of the truth. Ha.
Drug Rehabilitation + Haliburton County for the local thus clinics. The one in Haliburton town temporarily closed yields the closest, 4cast. 137 posts at NetVoid's forum, + 184 here =321.0, to overlap 3456 at the 3's, as the dimensions from 0 to 6, four by four.bb
The unused, Zodiac bits: 'dakadu, Lake+151?s (164 char. max) seed the final two lines of the anagram solver -of lies/revenge. Franc Baconis for the capital L yields 141=69+ᘔᘖ; 397=[(10-6+9-1)^3-(1+ᘔ+ᘖ+1)^3].
Thanks. CIA.0!
Ha.
The more Ditz opens his mouth the more he proves he's just a quack with no real gambling skills.Originally Posted by AxelWolfBULL FUCKING SHIT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Originally Posted by redietz
I suck at math and sports in general, but I could show someone with reasonable intelligence and dedication how to parlay (no pun intended ) their 20k into a nice bankroll without any handicapping or knowledge of sports whatsoever. Once you head down that road you start learning more and more as you go. it's amazing, all the different opportunities you will come across if you are dedicated and looking for such things.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
Lay me 7 extra points on every game next season. We make all the bets before the season starts so there is no handicapping. If you take the proposition I will have pretty some good positive EV and you will have very bad negative EV. Would you like to deny that?Originally Posted by redietzThis is actually a complete misrepresentation of my position, which is why account paraphrased rather than finding a direct quote from me.Originally Posted by accountinquestion
As I have said on this forum multiple times, the only handicapper I know who I believe won every year was Larry Fletcher, AKA Southern Comfort, who primarily used arbitrage and middles shooting across most sports to make half of his profits. Fletcher had programs red alerting him to arbitrage opportunities before most people had internet.
The problems with "taking advantage of soft numbers" and middles shooting is to make any money, you have to have well into five digits spread across a dozen or more shops, meaning an outlay of half a million dollars or more. The other problem is that taking advantage of allegedly "soft numbers" usually gets you into the kind of bind that people who bet "soft numbers" would have found themselves in this NFL playoff season. The numbers moves are mostly wrong and you get killed.
The other element to this that requires expertise is anticipating where numbers will move. That requires much, much more than following injuries and "smart money."
By the way, the article is sad. You can't define EV in a non-mathematical universe, which is what pointspreads are. Spreads aren't coin flips, boys, or haven't you figured that out? Jesus, account, you're better than this.
Let me give you boys a hint. Whatever most folks prefer to believe regarding any aspect of gambling is probably wrong. Whatever most people prefer to believe, whatever they are motivated to believe, don't believe it. Simple rule of thumb. Rarely wrong.
If I didn't know better I'd swear I was arguing with Evenbob (the math don't matter) over roulette. I can't believe redietz can't grasp the simple concept of expected value.
"Point spreads aren't mathematical." Bob Dietz
A dumber statement has never been written in the gambling forums.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
Curiously redietz, if you don't believe EV is a thing how do you bet straight sports profitably via a regular book and not some contest in Poughkeepsie?
It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"
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