Originally Posted by
mickeycrimm
Hye, Ditz. It's a game of opinion right. My opinion is I'll take the Eagles plus 3. Friendly $500 wager? Money goes to favorite charity.
Do you think you'll have plus EV on the bet?
Expected Value is a math term. It implies that there is a formula you can apply for the precise calculation of such. Since sports wagers are not coin flips, the use of the term without the phrase "in my subjective opinion" or "in my estimation" is inappropriate. The "Expected" in your phrase "EV" is completely subjective and wildly varying based on who's doing the expecting. So why use a term with no actual precise definition?
If you canvass (1) the top 10 sports gamblers by volume, (2) the top 10 sports gamblers by lifetime winning, or (3) the top 10 handicappers by lifetime record, what you'll discover is that almost none of them use that term. Fezzik and his followers used similar jargon, but Fezzik had a "hallelujah" epiphany where he swore off that kind of declarative certainty.
I suggest if you want a practical summary of what kinds of trouble you can get in using a phrase with mathematical declarative certainty in sports betting, you track down Fezzik and ask him.
So what one has to ask himself is who is using the more appropriate language? Someone like Billy Walters or yourself? The people who have spent a lifetime immersed in serious sports gambling or a bunch of table scraps civilians at VCT or WoV?
A couple of quick examples of how inappropriate using these kinds of declarative math terms really is. Because of the structure of what NFL defenses played this year, using previous totals as some historical data base for estimating EV proved to be wrong. In the NBA, given the priorities certain teams put on resting people when, using previous historical data as a way of estimating EV going forward for road favorites proved to be completely wrong. Sports spreads weren't coin flips before this year; they aren't coin flips during; they won't be coin flips going forward. Pretending they are for the sake of propping up your jargon with some "EV" imprimatur is not only valueless, it can be quite damaging.
Helluva essay. I should copyright it.
By the way, mickey, I'm being recruited to meet with a Pulitzer-winning author. I'm not sure my knowledge base or skill set writing-wise is good enough, but I'm going to do some prep work. You can keep your fingers crossed for me.
It looks like a Plus EV situation.