Professional Sportsbetting

[mickeycrimm]

Fezzik’s record in Circa Millions is 47-20-3. He’s half a game out of first place.

[mickeycrimm]

Towards the end Fezzik talks about how he uses probability to calculate odds vs. payoff:

[AxelWolf]

Redietz has downplayed the relevance of math in sports betting saying it's more a matter of opinion.

So when the Walters book came out it showed Walters and the Computer group used an entirely mathematical approach. The power ratings were based on empirical data. There were no opinions involved. Just pure math.

Everyone knows the success Walters had using this strategy. But here is Bob Dietz telling a book club meeting "what is right and what is wrong" with the strategy. He said there wasn't much right, just a few tidbits. Can you believe that? Redietz really really really thinks he knows more about it than Walters and the Computer Group. LOL. You can't make this shit up.

It don't take a rocket scientist to figure out why Dietz is poo poohing the Walters/Computer Group strategy. He doesn't believe in the math. That's because he doesn't know much about the math. Given how adamant he was in downplaying the math before the book came out it's no wonder he's critical of the strategy. To him it just can't be that math is so important in sports betting.

Dietz general AP and math poo poohing seem to be more about the fact that if anyone can make money following the math, using bonuses, middling, stale lines, locking up money betting both sides, off-market lines, and legitimate AP in sports. It renderers his investment services and 20+ years of experience useless.

Some new smart mathematical Advantage Player who's never even bet a sport in his life can look at all those things and figure out how to make 10 times per year than what Red has ever made.

One would think though that he would want widen his opportunities to start making some level of real money.

I don't know about that, at some point/age people are less motivated and determined, especially if an old dog has to learn new tricks. Just imagine if you were a working-class bike mechanic for 20-30 + years, but suddenly... if you wanted to make some real money you would have to learn how to work on electric cars.
You might not want to do that at age 65+. One might want to just run around and talk about how great bike mechanics were back in the day and tell us about how all the other great bike mechanics were sometimes doing it wrong.

[redietz]

Do you guys ever listen to yourselves? I mean, do you actually read and ponder what you've written?

The above statement by Axelwolf would mean that someone like Billy Walters, with unlimited resources and access to anyone he wanted for 30 years, would somehow not have figured out that basic applications of "AP" play to sports betting is superior to handicapping. And that he must not be too bright because he recruited specialists in each sport instead of "APs."

I said five years ago that the oncoming trend would be "APs" oozing into sports betting as sports betting became ubiquitous state to state and "AP" opportunities began to dry up with more identification tech and requirements. It was obvious that's where things were going, and what the "AP" pitch would be to keep themselves afloat.

For 40 years, handicappers have used every "AP" angle to sports betting that are currently being bragged on by mickey, account, and Axelwolf. Somehow "APs" assume they stumbled upon bonus whoring, arbitrage, and such while the poor dumb bastards handicapping never thought to use them. The arrogance and/or stupidity and/or outright lying is unbelievable.

God almighty. Check out my blogs from five years ago, which detail events going back to the early 80's. You think "stale lines" and "middling" are the purview of modern "APs?" How goddamn stupid are you really?

During football seasons, I lived for three years at the Convention Center Lodge (directly across the strip east of the Stardust) and for three years at the huge Budget Suites (behind the Stardust, west side) precisely because the Stardust was the last to move their lines. I walked down to Circus-Circus (from the Stardust) on football Saturdays to discuss totals moves with the sports book manager because they moved totals based on weather five to ten minutes before the Stardust. This was in the mid 80's.

And you think you invented using "stale" lines and middling? You guys have some bizarre opinions of yourselves. You're comical. To use Axelwolf's analogy, what makes you think you invented the wheel when other people have been riding bicycles for 40 years?

The sheer ignorance is stunning.

[redietz]

What I love about this thread is that the only person who could be remotely considered a "professional sports bettor," namely me, is being told why I don't know what I'm talking about by a bunch of "APs" who have no blessed idea of sports betting or its history. They haven't lived it, experienced it, survived it. They don't know the people; they really don't know much of anything other than what they can watch on YouTube in 2023. They think, because they stumbled onto a handful of jargon and figured out that things like arbitrage and slow numbers exist, that they've conquered the sports betting world.

Meanwhile, I have people who've taught college probability or done the logistical math for major corporations checking my math, but somehow, ostensibly, they've decided that I don't use math.

The thread is called "Professional Sports Betting." LOL.

[accountinquestion]

Do you guys ever listen to yourselves? I mean, do you actually read and ponder what you've written?

The above statement by Axelwolf would mean that someone like Billy Walters, with unlimited resources and access to anyone he wanted for 30 years, would somehow not have figured out that basic applications of "AP" play to sports betting is superior to handicapping. And that he must not be too bright because he recruited specialists in each sport instead of "APs."

I said five years ago that the oncoming trend would be "APs" oozing into sports betting as sports betting became ubiquitous state to state and "AP" opportunities began to dry up with more identification tech and requirements. It was obvious that's where things were going, and what the "AP" pitch would be to keep themselves afloat.

For 40 years, handicappers have used every "AP" angle to sports betting that are currently being bragged on by mickey, account, and Axelwolf. Somehow "APs" assume they stumbled upon bonus whoring, arbitrage, and such while the poor dumb bastards handicapping never thought to use them. The arrogance and/or stupidity and/or outright lying is unbelievable.

God almighty. Check out my blogs from five years ago, which detail events going back to the early 80's. You think "stale lines" and "middling" are the purview of modern "APs?" How goddamn stupid are you really?

During football seasons, I lived for three years at the Convention Center Lodge (directly across the strip east of the Stardust) and for three years at the huge Budget Suites (behind the Stardust, west side) precisely because the Stardust was the last to move their lines. I walked down to Circus-Circus (from the Stardust) on football Saturdays to discuss totals moves with the sports book manager because they moved totals based on weather five to ten minutes before the Stardust. This was in the mid 80's.

And you think you invented using "stale" lines and middling? You guys have some bizarre opinions of yourselves. You're comical. To use Axelwolf's analogy, what makes you think you invented the wheel when other people have been riding bicycles for 40 years?

The sheer ignorance is stunning.

Glad you didn't cricket us again. It is getting easier to get you to respond. I can't just nail you on bullshit which you can't respond. Just low-level observations on who you are.

No one says anyone discovered anything. People rediscover (if that is the right word) this shit every year. It isn't rocket science and no one has claimed otherwise.

People just question your handicapping and whether you could ever beat cash betting these days without bonuses. Like I pointed out, there is little reason to think the lines you were getting back then are near as sharp as the lines today. You even admit you literally moved to be close by the place most likely to have the weak lines. lol.

No one said they inventing anything. You have just thoroughly mocked all this stuff for some time for using it so it makes little sense that you are utilizing it. The best one was you telling people they were shitty people for getting some friend to use their sign-up bonus for something in return. These are people who had no chance of signing up otherwise. Just laughable. You seem to sincere too. Most people on here are joking part of the time. You almost never are.

lol redietz. I love your posts.

[redietz]

I forgot, kudos to account. He is using the phrase "stale lines" as opposed to his previous "soft lines." So he actually listens to me on occasion. He's getting better at the basic language. "Stale" is very different from "soft." Less arrogant; less implicitly self-aggrandizing.

Next, he'll be contributing mightily to a thread named "Real Smart AP Sports Betting."

At least then I stay out of the thread. I don't qualify. Or I qualify about as much as account qualifies to contribute to this thread.

And relax, account. You don't want the only actual "professional sports bettor" posting here? You got it. I'll post trip report photos. That'll be it.

And for the record, you have no business signing other people up for bonuses. You are disqualifying them from future bonuses, which may be better. You are acting as if you absolutely know for the rest of their lives that they will have no interest in making free money. Unless you are kicking 80-90% back to them, you are exploiting them.

[accountinquestion]

What I love about this thread is that the only person who could be remotely considered a "professional sports bettor," namely me, is being told why I don't know what I'm talking about by a bunch of "APs" who have no blessed idea of sports betting or its history. They haven't lived it, experienced it, survived it. They don't know the people; they really don't know much of anything other than what they can watch on YouTube in 2023. They think, because they stumbled onto a handful of jargon and figured out that things like arbitrage and slow numbers exist, that they've conquered the sports betting world.

Meanwhile, I have people who've taught college probability or done the logistical math for major corporations checking my math, but somehow, ostensibly, they've decided that I don't use math.

The thread is called "Professional Sports Betting." LOL.

You had lines that were so much more weaker. People here have no reason to believe you can beat the lines on most sites or at least the ones that aren't sketch.

A couple of years ago it was believed you had no idea about so much outside your little world of sports betting. It was clear in the things you said. You've mocked everyone. Not just those on this board. Well you mock what they say. Lol.

"lived it" meaning you had to go walk to the sportsbook and were limited in what options you actually had? I've lived in Vegas too. Some shitty ass ratty places. Last time I stayed I was in Bellagio with fountain view.

You have thoroughly mocked math.

Honestly after being called out on this shit, it truly appears you have learned something these past couple of years.

Who gives a fuck about who you know. Always about who you know. There are people on this board that in my opinion accomplished far more when you look at the summation of the competition they had to overcome.

You? - "meanwhile" I know a guy who did math at a big corporation. Ooooh someone taught college probability. Thats like the easiest math course there is for someone going a hard science route. I promise you. It takes an IQ to figure out how to apply all the stuff given the interesting scenarios but I couldn't tell you the difference in a combination vs permutation but that shit wasn't hard. Goofy shit. Not even a respectable school. Being a professor at a lower tier school is not something I sit back in awe at. Some dude wanted to be in academia - got a PhD - went down that whole route. If he was especially smart he'd ended up in a decent school at least. You act like we're supposed to be in awe. Good stuff Ditz. Love you.

[accountinquestion]

I forgot, kudos to account. He is using the phrase "stale lines" as opposed to his previous "soft lines." So he actually listens to me on occasion. He's getting better at the basic language. "Stale" is very different from "soft." Less arrogant; less implicitly self-aggrandizing.

Next, he'll be contributing mightily to a thread named "Real Smart AP Sports Betting."

At least then I stay out of the thread. I don't qualify. Or I qualify about as much as account qualifies to contribute to this thread.

And relax, account. You don't want the only actual "professional sports bettor" posting here? You got it. I'll post trip report photos. That'll be it.

I read your posts.

but uhhh redietz I didn't use "stale lines" that I see. I don't want to be harsh on an older guy. I don't know what is going on. Maybe you shouldn't mock people for not reading?


I would use the term. It is basically a subset of softlines. stale lines just means you assume they're converge and this one hasn't moved. Soft-lines would just be lines that are off for whatever reason. Maybe they could be consider "stale lines" maybe not. I have only looked at prices and picked values. I have never been into sports betting to know what would be a stale line. I never timed my bets in anticipation of line moves. APs who look at it from this level aren't going to be either.

[redietz]

Account should probably explain why, if his "AP" techniques are so solid, he advocates exploiting other people for small amounts of bonus money. Really sleazy stuff.

[accountinquestion]

Redietz telling people who get others to use signup bonus are being exploited. If someone understands and agrees it isn't exploited. Some dude who never bets sports is never going to bet sports and they give you your account? that is exploited?

Maybe redietz is such a shitty person he doesn't understand how people do favors for others but in most cases those people are compensated and the value is far than 0.

Ditz all flailing about trying to find something to insult APs over. Pathetic.

[accountinquestion]

Account should probably explain why, if his "AP" techniques are so solid, he advocates exploiting other people for small amounts of bonus money. Really sleazy stuff.

I never said AP methods are that solid or even that I bet sports.

People enter into partnerships of varying types all the time in exchange.

Redietz should explain to me how someone who never bets sports, barely watches sports. Someone who hasn't even placed a bet in their life - is going to find value in their sports-book signup. The value of this is 0 to them so I can't even see how that is exploiting. That is worst case though. Typically they're given someone amount.

So lets see in Ditz's world, me giving someone money for something that is literally worth 0 to them and both people understand is "exploiting". Explain that? Fucking idiot.

[accountinquestion]

Maybe instead of trying to get investors like you used to - you should learn a way to abuse bonuses through sign-ups so everyone is happy. They get a few hundred - you get a few thousand. THen everyone is happy.

Far happier than investing in you even if you list your EV on your site and then losing their shirt.

[monet]

Do you guys ever listen to yourselves? I mean, do you actually read and ponder what you've written?

The above statement by Axelwolf would mean that someone like Billy Walters, with unlimited resources and access to anyone he wanted for 30 years, would somehow not have figured out that basic applications of "AP" play to sports betting is superior to handicapping. And that he must not be too bright because he recruited specialists in each sport instead of "APs."

I said five years ago that the oncoming trend would be "APs" oozing into sports betting as sports betting became ubiquitous state to state and "AP" opportunities began to dry up with more identification tech and requirements. It was obvious that's where things were going, and what the "AP" pitch would be to keep themselves afloat.

For 40 years, handicappers have used every "AP" angle to sports betting that are currently being bragged on by mickey, account, and Axelwolf. Somehow "APs" assume they stumbled upon bonus whoring, arbitrage, and such while the poor dumb bastards handicapping never thought to use them. The arrogance and/or stupidity and/or outright lying is unbelievable.

God almighty. Check out my blogs from five years ago, which detail events going back to the early 80's. You think "stale lines" and "middling" are the purview of modern "APs?" How goddamn stupid are you really?

During football seasons, I lived for three years at the Convention Center Lodge (directly across the strip east of the Stardust) and for three years at the huge Budget Suites (behind the Stardust, west side) precisely because the Stardust was the last to move their lines. I walked down to Circus-Circus (from the Stardust) on football Saturdays to discuss totals moves with the sports book manager because they moved totals based on weather five to ten minutes before the Stardust. This was in the mid 80's.

And you think you invented using "stale" lines and middling? You guys have some bizarre opinions of yourselves. You're comical. To use Axelwolf's analogy, what makes you think you invented the wheel when other people have been riding bicycles for 40 years?

The sheer ignorance is stunning.

85 pages of this back-and-forth nonsense.
You've read all the posts and responded to most of them!
Nicely Done.

[jbjb]

Billy Walters has no idea who Red is.

[mickeycrimm]

Do you guys ever listen to yourselves? I mean, do you actually read and ponder what you've written?

The above statement by Axelwolf would mean that someone like Billy Walters, with unlimited resources and access to anyone he wanted for 30 years, would somehow not have figured out that basic applications of "AP" play to sports betting is superior to handicapping. And that he must not be too bright because he recruited specialists in each sport instead of "APs."

I said five years ago that the oncoming trend would be "APs" oozing into sports betting as sports betting became ubiquitous state to state and "AP" opportunities began to dry up with more identification tech and requirements. It was obvious that's where things were going, and what the "AP" pitch would be to keep themselves afloat.

For 40 years, handicappers have used every "AP" angle to sports betting that are currently being bragged on by mickey, account, and Axelwolf. Somehow "APs" assume they stumbled upon bonus whoring, arbitrage, and such while the poor dumb bastards handicapping never thought to use them. The arrogance and/or stupidity and/or outright lying is unbelievable.

God almighty. Check out my blogs from five years ago, which detail events going back to the early 80's. You think "stale lines" and "middling" are the purview of modern "APs?" How goddamn stupid are you really?

During football seasons, I lived for three years at the Convention Center Lodge (directly across the strip east of the Stardust) and for three years at the huge Budget Suites (behind the Stardust, west side) precisely because the Stardust was the last to move their lines. I walked down to Circus-Circus (from the Stardust) on football Saturdays to discuss totals moves with the sports book manager because they moved totals based on weather five to ten minutes before the Stardust. This was in the mid 80's.

And you think you invented using "stale" lines and middling? You guys have some bizarre opinions of yourselves. You're comical. To use Axelwolf's analogy, what makes you think you invented the wheel when other people have been riding bicycles for 40 years?

The sheer ignorance is stunning.

Billy Walters is an ADVANTAGE PLAYER. Repeat. Billy Walters is an ADVANTAGE PLAYER. Repeat. Billy Walters is an ADVANTAGE PLAYER. Anyone that gambles with an advantage is an advantage player. Google it.

[kewlJ]

Billy Walters has no idea who Red is.

This doesn't even matter to me. Whether or not Redietz had any association with Billy Watters or not is completely irrelevant to me. It neither proves nor disproves that he has made money and/or supported himself from sports betting and the various contests and stuff for decades. Since I see no evidence that he didn't and he seems to have demonstrated some knowledge in the sports betting arena, I have no reason to doubt him. And the fact that he may sometimes be arrogant, or say something wrong like his EV comments, or even that he has attacked me, is not that reason. If some new info comes a long that proves that he didn't...fine. Until then....

Now what is extremely odd to me, is Redietz getting so upset to the point that he attacks advantage players that have found things to do at an advantage in the sports betting arena in recent years. This is what advantage players are and do. Redietz seems to have taken offense, like he thinks sports betting is his thing and no one else has a right to find and play anything at an advantage. It would be like if myself, primarily a card counter, took offense and started attacking any AP's that primarily do other things that all of the sudden found something worth their time involving card counting. Maybe an incredibly good game or a side bet opportunity.

So that is the part that I find odd. If Redietz is who he claims and has been successful doing what he does for decades, the fact that some advantage players come along and find some things to do at an advantage in this current environment, in no way reflects upon him or diminishes anything he may have done.

[MaxPen]

Billy Walters has no idea who Red is.

This doesn't even matter to me. Whether or not Redietz had any association with Billy Watters or not is completely irrelevant to me. It neither proves nor disproves that he has made money and/or supported himself from sports betting and the various contests and stuff for decades. Since I see no evidence that he didn't and he seems to have demonstrated some knowledge in the sports betting arena, I have no reason to doubt him. And the fact that he may sometimes be arrogant, or say something wrong like his EV comments, or even that he has attacked me, is not that reason. If some new info comes a long that proves that he didn't...fine. Until then....

Now what is extremely odd to me, is Redietz getting so upset to the point that he attacks advantage players that have found things to do at an advantage in the sports betting arena in recent years. This is what advantage players are and do. Redietz seems to have taken offense, like he thinks sports betting is his thing and no one else has a right to find and play anything at an advantage. It would be like if myself, primarily a card counter, took offense and started attacking any AP's that primarily do other things that all of the sudden found something worth their time involving card counting. Maybe an incredibly good game or a side bet opportunity.

So that is the part that I find odd. If Redietz is who he claims and has been successful doing what he does for decades, the fact that some advantage players come along and find some things to do at an advantage in this current environment, in no way reflects upon him or diminishes anything he may have done.

An interesting fact about Monk Shoe Red is that when you Google his name it shows that there is a 90 year old and 66 year old Robert Dietz living at the Johnson City address with the unpaid property tax. In all likelihood we are looking at a dude who never left his mom and dad's side thru out life.

Dude's a basement dweller.....RIP

[monet]

Dude's a basement dweller.....RIP

#metoo but I do it in the computer room on the second floor since we have no basement.

[redietz]

MaxPen, I love you. I really do.

You realize I have a PM from you titled, "You are the only one to call it from the beginning?" Would you like to share it with the audience or shall I?

In any event, how do you draw your conclusions? Is it "AP" insight? You know, basically using "wild guessing" and "expected value" as synonyms.

I do wish my dad were alive. Pretty funny conclusion, though. Either (A) data bases often conflate the addresses, assets, and debts of people with the same name or (B) junior must be living with dad, who is 90-something. Which is more likely? Must be a fine mathematical sixth sense that guides some people to the answer. I think there are a couple of relevant books. I recommend Innumeracy by John Allen Paulos.

Anonymous dudes doing anonymous things while living anonymous lives. VCT, where geniuses congregate.

Monet -- I'll be in town next week. Let me know if you want lunch or something. We'll be at the Golden Nugget Sunday through Wednesday, then the Tuscany for a couple of days.