Page 29 of 105 FirstFirst ... 192526272829303132333979 ... LastLast
Results 561 to 580 of 2100

Thread: Professional Sportsbetting

  1. #561
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    What is sportsbetting Expected Value?

    https://sportshandle.com/expected-value/
    It seems like this is from a handicapper's perspective with line shopping


    Red was saying one needs a bunch of money in multiple accounts to target mathematically proven advantages I.E. a large bankroll that most people don't have.



    "A bettor needs to win 52.38% of their bets just to break even." "the most profitable bettors win “only” around 55%-56% of bets."

    How much would one need to be betting per game to make a living with handicapping only? That sounds like you need a significantly larger bankroll to fade the variance with the risk of actually going broke. Many of the other +EV non-handicapping methods have a higher player+EV percentage with way less variance.

    Both can be scaled down to fit one's bankroll according to Kelly, but when doing so, a handicapper puts himself in a situation where he cannot make a living. Using Other +EV non-handicapping methods requires a much smaller bankroll with a higher earn.

    I will admit IF you can consistently get 55-58 percent your higher-end potential is significantly better, especially if you have a bankroll that can fade getting in hundreds of thousands in action.

    When does a handicapper know when he himself has been handicapped? How many years before he realizes something has changed and he no longer has an advantage for whatever reason?
    EXCELLENT point. With the concept of EV you weigh the better bets vs betting on your hunches. Handicapping seems to be about other aspects of gambling that don't include maximizing money won.
    I have to strongly disagree with that account. It is all about maximizing money won. That is why i, and most good handicappers, dont bet heavy favorites or make show bets. There is no value and you cant make any significant cash. I had a cousin that bet massive amounts to show on the heavy favorites. Betting that kind of $ to get $2.10 is insane. One loss and you spend a lifetime trying to get even.

    My thing is pick 5’s and exactas. Always can find value there. The pick 5 is where i made my big score 2 years ago that i will probably never repeat.

  2. #562
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    The horse races are live sports betting. Humans or Horses? What's the difference when betting?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...se-racing-code

    the difference imo - is each horse is a single entity to be evaluated
    in the NFL there are maybe 28 players on each team who will appear in the game - 56 players total
    much more difficult imo to estimate how 56 players on 2 teams are going to perform then how a horse will perform


    as far as I know there are no CAW teams crushing sports - not that I've ever heard of - I could be wrong


    Benter beat Hong Kong racing
    very large fields creating lots of confusion for anyone without a computer
    prolly a great many lucky numbers type bettors - not so many in the U.S.


    .
    not saying that to knock his tremendous accomplishment - just saying
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 04-12-2023 at 07:49 AM.
    please don't feed the trolls

  3. #563
    Originally Posted by regnis View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    It seems like this is from a handicapper's perspective with line shopping


    Red was saying one needs a bunch of money in multiple accounts to target mathematically proven advantages I.E. a large bankroll that most people don't have.



    "A bettor needs to win 52.38% of their bets just to break even." "the most profitable bettors win “only” around 55%-56% of bets."

    How much would one need to be betting per game to make a living with handicapping only? That sounds like you need a significantly larger bankroll to fade the variance with the risk of actually going broke. Many of the other +EV non-handicapping methods have a higher player+EV percentage with way less variance.

    Both can be scaled down to fit one's bankroll according to Kelly, but when doing so, a handicapper puts himself in a situation where he cannot make a living. Using Other +EV non-handicapping methods requires a much smaller bankroll with a higher earn.

    I will admit IF you can consistently get 55-58 percent your higher-end potential is significantly better, especially if you have a bankroll that can fade getting in hundreds of thousands in action.

    When does a handicapper know when he himself has been handicapped? How many years before he realizes something has changed and he no longer has an advantage for whatever reason?
    EXCELLENT point. With the concept of EV you weigh the better bets vs betting on your hunches. Handicapping seems to be about other aspects of gambling that don't include maximizing money won.
    I have to strongly disagree with that account. It is all about maximizing money won. That is why i, and most good handicappers, dont bet heavy favorites or make show bets. There is no value and you cant make any significant cash. I had a cousin that bet massive amounts to show on the heavy favorites. Betting that kind of $ to get $2.10 is insane. One loss and you spend a lifetime trying to get even.

    My thing is pick 5’s and exactas. Always can find value there. The pick 5 is where i made my big score 2 years ago that i will probably never repeat.
    If using the concept of EV then you can use Kelly. Using those 2 things is what will maximize bankroll growth. This approaches takes into account the risk of betting longshots.

    Even you don't care about the odds, you would still know which bets have the most return and concentrate on them.

    This is of course assuming your EV estimation is reasonably accurate.

    If you don't use the concept of EV then you'll not know which bets appear to be the most profitable. If one bet has 1% edge other has 5% edge that is very very significant.
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

  4. #564
    Post #563. LOL. Could not have said it better myself. This is THE classic post, and I thank account for it. I am going to quote this baby in perpetuity.

    I am marking this particular post as the reason almost all of these "EV" posts are 50% bullshit and 50% hubris.

    Account, please do not edit #563. Thank you.

  5. #565
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Post #563. LOL. Could not have said it better myself. This is THE classic post, and I thank account for it. I am going to quote this baby in perpetuity.

    I am marking this particular post as the reason almost all of these "EV" posts are 50% bullshit and 50% hubris.

    Account, please do not edit #563. Thank you.
    Of course not.

    You have been REPEATEDLY demonstrated to be the fool you are with your near 0 knowledge of current sports betting.

    You may very well be the biggest clown on this site. But hey, at least you're a dude who can't pay a $500 tax bill and ridicules many well known bettors. The same guy who doesn't think people are limited all over from sports.

    I was privy to a convo in green chip high-stakes game a couple weeks ago. 2 guys were serious bettors. There is one regional bookie who is apparently as big as they come. Both players were cut off at some point but it took some time. Then they had this whole conversation of trying to get accounts where they could bet large. Why would that even be part of the discussion if they weren't limited all over with their beards? Fool. Your problem is you just don't stick with what you know and insist on displaying your ignorance on sports betting.

    I've asked this so many times. You clearly are a bullshit artist with little substance or you'd answer the simple question. You KNOW you can't so you double-down repeatedly while ducking real questions.

    How did you post a ROI on your site without the concept of EV? Even if you come up with some conflated formula were you derived EV without using EV, you were still using it on your website.

    For the readers out there - I'll give you the answer below.

    <crickets>
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

  6. #566
    Redietz -

    "posts are 50% bullshit and 50% hubris" pretty well describes you say doesn't it?

  7. #567

  8. #568
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    The horse races are live sports betting. Humans or Horses? What's the difference when betting?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...se-racing-code

    the difference imo - is each horse is a single entity to be evaluated
    in the NFL there are maybe 28 players on each team who will appear in the game - 56 players total
    much more difficult imo to estimate how 56 players on 2 teams are going to perform then how a horse will perform


    as far as I know there are no CAW teams crushing sports - not that I've ever heard of - I could be wrong


    Benter beat Hong Kong racing
    very large fields creating lots of confusion for anyone without a computer
    prolly a great many lucky numbers type bettors - not so many in the U.S.


    .
    not saying that to knock his tremendous accomplishment - just saying
    The race is not just one horse. There are up to 14 horses in a race. And he was beating 17% vig. That's almost 4 times the vig of betting sides and totals in football. Successful horse bettors are the rarest of AP's.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  9. #569
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    The horse races are live sports betting. Humans or Horses? What's the difference when betting?

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...se-racing-code

    the difference imo - is each horse is a single entity to be evaluated
    in the NFL there are maybe 28 players on each team who will appear in the game - 56 players total
    much more difficult imo to estimate how 56 players on 2 teams are going to perform then how a horse will perform


    as far as I know there are no CAW teams crushing sports - not that I've ever heard of - I could be wrong


    Benter beat Hong Kong racing
    very large fields creating lots of confusion for anyone without a computer
    prolly a great many lucky numbers type bettors - not so many in the U.S.


    .
    not saying that to knock his tremendous accomplishment - just saying
    The race is not just one horse. There are up to 14 horses in a race. And he was beating 17% vig. That's almost 4 times the vig of betting sides and totals in football. Successful horse bettors are the rarest of AP's.

    each one horse is relatively easy to evaluate - not saying it's easy to pick the winner

    a football team with maybe 28 players on the field for the game is much harder imo to evaluate

    if you believe that a very accurate odds line can be made for sports - can you point to a CAW (computer assisted wagering) team that is crushing sports_____?

    because I don't know of any - maybe I've missed something - if you point one out to me then I will admit that I'm wrong

    but if you can't - then why aren't they out there______?_________if that's the case I'll refer you back to my answer



    .
    please don't feed the trolls

  10. #570
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post


    the difference imo - is each horse is a single entity to be evaluated
    in the NFL there are maybe 28 players on each team who will appear in the game - 56 players total
    much more difficult imo to estimate how 56 players on 2 teams are going to perform then how a horse will perform


    as far as I know there are no CAW teams crushing sports - not that I've ever heard of - I could be wrong


    Benter beat Hong Kong racing
    very large fields creating lots of confusion for anyone without a computer
    prolly a great many lucky numbers type bettors - not so many in the U.S.


    .
    not saying that to knock his tremendous accomplishment - just saying
    The race is not just one horse. There are up to 14 horses in a race. And he was beating 17% vig. That's almost 4 times the vig of betting sides and totals in football. Successful horse bettors are the rarest of AP's.

    each one horse is relatively easy to evaluate - not saying it's easy to pick the winner

    a football team with maybe 28 players on the field for the game is much harder imo to evaluate

    if you believe that a very accurate odds line can be made for sports - can you point to a CAW (computer assisted wagering) team that is crushing sports_____?

    because I don't know of any - maybe I've missed something - if you point one out to me then I will admit that I'm wrong

    but if you can't - then why aren't they out there______?_________if that's the case I'll refer you back to my answer



    .
    I don't believe anyone crushes sports without some angle or pure volume. Doesn't matter CAW or not. Ultimately CAW could work but it'll come down to people inputting more and correct measurements of play.

    Honestly if you created enough parameters for each player/team it might very well be ripe for neural nets. You'd need enough and a consistent measurement of said parameters. It still doesn't mean you'd crush.

    BTW I agree with Mickey. Beating horses without an angle seems impossible. I've never read much about it outside of that Hong Kong guy.
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

  11. #571
    .


    kinna odd isn't it___? - at least a couple of CAW teams have crushed racing - up against a 17% win place show takeout - and it goes up to close to 30% on the exotic bets - ridiculous but true - higher and higher the greater the potential payout is

    but no news of any team of any kind crushing sports with only a 4.55% takeout on the common spread bets


    .
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 04-12-2023 at 01:56 PM.
    please don't feed the trolls

  12. #572
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    .


    kinna odd isn't it___? - at least a couple of CAW teams have crushed racing - up against a 17% win place show takeout - and it goes up to close to 30% on the exotic bets - ridiculous but true - higher and higher the greater the potential payout is

    but no news of any team of any kind crushing sports with only a 4.55% takeout on the common spread bets


    .
    Is this still going on? If the other bettors are so off in their betting then it could clearly work. I'm just surprised if this is still the case. Seems like betting would be more efficient by now.

    I stayed in a casino with a track not that long ago. There were these 2 dudes who I saw around all the time betting. They seemed to be serious about it .. I should have chatted them up.

    Any references to this? Not to doubt but curiosity leads me..
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

  13. #573
    Please keep in mind one thing. In sports you are wagering against the house. In horses you are betting against the public, the majority of whom are stupid and have less knowledge and experience. And, despite the juice, you are getting more value than the -105 of sports.

    Simple example. A friend that went to the track with me for 30 years couldnt win if his life depended on it. So i tried to teach him afew basics over the years like track bias. So lets say the track favored speed that day. He would say the 5 is the speed. I would point out to him that the 5 showed speed at a mile. But this race is 6 furlongs and he will never see the lead if there is any other speed in the race.

    That is the general public.

  14. #574
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post


    the difference imo - is each horse is a single entity to be evaluated
    in the NFL there are maybe 28 players on each team who will appear in the game - 56 players total
    much more difficult imo to estimate how 56 players on 2 teams are going to perform then how a horse will perform


    as far as I know there are no CAW teams crushing sports - not that I've ever heard of - I could be wrong


    Benter beat Hong Kong racing
    very large fields creating lots of confusion for anyone without a computer
    prolly a great many lucky numbers type bettors - not so many in the U.S.


    .
    not saying that to knock his tremendous accomplishment - just saying
    The race is not just one horse. There are up to 14 horses in a race. And he was beating 17% vig. That's almost 4 times the vig of betting sides and totals in football. Successful horse bettors are the rarest of AP's.

    each one horse is relatively easy to evaluate - not saying it's easy to pick the winner

    a football team with maybe 28 players on the field for the game is much harder imo to evaluate

    if you believe that a very accurate odds line can be made for sports - can you point to a CAW (computer assisted wagering) team that is crushing sports_____?

    because I don't know of any - maybe I've missed something - if you point one out to me then I will admit that I'm wrong

    but if you can't - then why aren't they out there______?_________if that's the case I'll refer you back to my answer.
    Sure. Billy Walters and the Computer Group.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  15. #575
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    can you point to a CAW (computer assisted wagering) team that is crushing sports_____?

    because I don't know of any - maybe I've missed something - if you point one out to me then I will admit that I'm wrong

    but if you can't - then why aren't they out there______?
    This is interesting. Half Smoke, you are playing under the assumption that because you have not heard of any computer assisted team crushing sports, that there aren't any.

    Let me ask this? What benefit would there be to such a group running around posting on forums or youtube?

    In the case of a group, or multiple groups winning by computer assisted programs, the less said the better. Publicity is only going to alert the casino industry and competition that this could be done. I mean if a team or group was able to have these kind of results we are speculating about, the entire focus changes from picking winners (which they then could do) to putting all their energy into figuring ways to get the money down. Publicity and chatter on forums is NOT going to help that cause.

    This would be quite different than say something like card counting, where I am free to share as much of what I do as I want and it won't have any real effect on me, because it isn't anything new. The casino industry knows all about card counting and has for 60 years.

  16. #576
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post

    The race is not just one horse. There are up to 14 horses in a race. And he was beating 17% vig. That's almost 4 times the vig of betting sides and totals in football. Successful horse bettors are the rarest of AP's.

    each one horse is relatively easy to evaluate - not saying it's easy to pick the winner

    a football team with maybe 28 players on the field for the game is much harder imo to evaluate

    if you believe that a very accurate odds line can be made for sports - can you point to a CAW (computer assisted wagering) team that is crushing sports_____?

    because I don't know of any - maybe I've missed something - if you point one out to me then I will admit that I'm wrong

    but if you can't - then why aren't they out there______?_________if that's the case I'll refer you back to my answer.
    Sure. Billy Walters and the Computer Group.
    I should also add that Plus EV Analytics in this thread uses algorithms and Spanky's is a computer programmer. If you look at all these successful sports bettors the common thing among them is their strong math backgrounds.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  17. #577
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post


    each one horse is relatively easy to evaluate - not saying it's easy to pick the winner

    a football team with maybe 28 players on the field for the game is much harder imo to evaluate

    if you believe that a very accurate odds line can be made for sports - can you point to a CAW (computer assisted wagering) team that is crushing sports_____?

    because I don't know of any - maybe I've missed something - if you point one out to me then I will admit that I'm wrong

    but if you can't - then why aren't they out there______?_________if that's the case I'll refer you back to my answer.
    Sure. Billy Walters and the Computer Group.
    I should also add that Plus EV Analytics in this thread uses algorithms and Spanky's is a computer programmer. If you look at all these successful sports bettors the common thing among them is their strong math backgrounds.
    It seems that the hard part really is the collecting of data. You need more data than the simple stats. (TBH I don't know what all is available) If you could produce these stats from old footage and had enough data to train a neural net for AI then the results might be quite accurate. It really would take 100s of games with lots of metrics not available to the public. Even without neural networks a decent programmer with a really good understanding of the underlying metrics and game could create a program that might also work quite well. You'd need a real passion for it though.

    Ultimately, it comes down to how efficient the market is. If it isn't efficient (has weak lines) then you have a chance.

    Same shit as poker really. The guys making the most money are not playing in tough games. They find a place where they get better spots. Just like finding weak lines. Any goofballs would listen to Redietz at this point.
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

  18. #578
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post




    - can you point to a CAW (computer assisted wagering) team that IS crushing sports_____?



    Sure. Billy Walters and the Computer Group.

    okay - you got me - I had forgotten about Walters - but you only got me halfway - I said IS and Walter is WAS - but then you said + EV Analytics - I don't know about them


    Walters was doing this before the mass legalization of sports betting - a great many fewer bettors - I believe the greater numbers of bettors - the more accurate the lines - thus the more difficult to beat those lines -

    so, I believe Walters would have had a much more difficult time in the current environment

    I have to believe that most of those few who strode up to Las Vegas books to bet in Walters time - the 1980s - were amateurs playing their fave home teams or making guesses and imagining they really knew something

    but still, my point is a small one - and I'll grant you it could be done -

    I would presume the edge would be very small and big money would have to be made over great nos. of bets


    .
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 04-13-2023 at 02:56 AM.
    please don't feed the trolls

  19. #579
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post

    I should also add that Plus EV Analytics in this thread uses algorithms and Spanky's is a computer programmer. If you look at all these successful sports bettors the common thing among them is their strong math backgrounds.

    EV Analytics has posted their long term results at the link - and they are not at all impressive - not to me anyway

    I guess this is a different company - you call the company you're posting about PLUS EV Analytics - I'm not sure about that

    anyway, over 5 years and 7,167 bets they have an r.o.i. of just 1.93% - below that they show something they call "Bat X" - they explain what that means - with a slightly higher r.o.i. of 2.36% for 2 years with 1,959 bets

    there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that many cappers not using CAW could beat that r.o.i. by a large margin - although they would have to make many fewer bets

    so yes, you're right - it can be done - but not in an impressive way imo - unless I see some other data that I can trust




    as was pointed out earlier in this thread Mike Shackleford showed that a bettor can get a 2.57% r.o.i. doing nothing other than betting the away underdog in NFL games




    https://evanalytics.com/faq/the-athletic?lmref=waHDRg


    .
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 04-13-2023 at 04:11 AM.
    please don't feed the trolls

  20. #580
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post

    I should also add that Plus EV Analytics in this thread uses algorithms and Spanky's is a computer programmer. If you look at all these successful sports bettors the common thing among them is their strong math backgrounds.

    EV Analytics has posted their long term results at the link - and they are not at all impressive - not to me anyway

    I guess this is a different company - you call the company you're posting about PLUS EV Analytics - I'm not sure about that

    anyway, over 5 years and 7,167 bets they have an r.o.i. of just 1.93% - below that they show something they call "Bat X" - they explain what that means - with a slightly higher r.o.i. of 2.36% for 2 years with 1,959 bets

    there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that many cappers not using CAW could beat that r.o.i. by a large margin - although they would have to make many fewer bets

    so yes, you're right - it can be done - but not in an impressive way imo - unless I see some other data that I can trust




    as was pointed out earlier in this thread Mike Shackleford showed that a bettor can get a 2.57% r.o.i. doing nothing other than betting the away underdog in NFL games

    https://evanalytics.com/faq/the-athletic?lmref=waHDRg.
    In the Shack charts betting the favorites was a loser overall. So how many times in 7,167 did Plus EV lay a favorite? How well did he do betting favorites? If he showed a profit betting favorites then it's impressive considering the overall stats. I have to assume he bet favorite only when his algorithm gave a different line than the book's line.

    Plus EV's results are actually pretty good if we are to believe what others like Spanky and Krak have said. They say they only make a buck or two per one hundred wagered. That's why they are pissed about having their betting capped. And Krak did make the statement "I bet a lot of dogs." That's probably information that a lot of them don't want out there. I think these guys are hip to heavily betting the dogs.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 7 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 7 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. What are best sportsbetting apps in Vegas?
    By PIGGY BANKER in forum Las Vegas
    Replies: 2
    Last Post: 01-14-2020, 12:44 PM
  2. The Future of Sportsbetting
    By mickeycrimm in forum Sports & Sportsbetting
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 06-05-2018, 08:03 AM
  3. Sportsbetting ONLY thread
    By LoneStarHorse in forum Sports & Sportsbetting
    Replies: 20
    Last Post: 02-05-2016, 04:48 PM
  4. Sportsbetting
    By LoneStarHorse in forum Sports & Sportsbetting
    Replies: 143
    Last Post: 02-03-2016, 07:09 PM
  5. Sportsbetting Anguish
    By Rob.Singer in forum Las Vegas
    Replies: 30
    Last Post: 12-21-2011, 11:17 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •