Professional Sportsbetting

[Rob.Singer]

What are the odds kew's latest tale here will be changing until he can tweak it to sound somewhat credible?

[MDawg]

I don't think there was any incident which was lawsuit-worthy, which is why we got so many changing and bizarre versions of the same story.

Compulsive liar is a fair assessment of what he is. If people go back and look at your last few stories they will see a trend in you always changing the story after you get caught lying.

[mickeycrimm]

I watched a live Fezzik interview yesterday as it was leading up to kickoff for Denver/Buffalo. Fezz had people monitoring lines around him. All the books had Buffalo -7.5. So while he was being interview one of his guys says to him that Draft Kings had just moved the line to -8. He ordered the guy to bet it and also parlay it to Denver -1.5 against the Vikings next week.

Any comments on a play like that?

Also, Fezz revealed that he was one game off of first place in the 1K buy-in Circa Millions handicapping contest, 5300 entries.

Here's the link:

[redietz]

Fezzik is a great, great NFL contest player, maybe the greatest NFL contest player of all time.

Having said that, he also swore off sports gambling (other than props) in a mea culpa "retirement column" published in the Review-Journal some years back. I leave people in the know to understand why that column was written. Some people win NFL contests. Some people helm high-stakes sports betting cartels. And (perhaps) never the twain shall meet.

Speaking of people who helm high stakes sports betting cartels, a certain someone, picking five NFL games per week ATS, is in 100th place out of 20,000+ in the BetOnline NFL Mega-Contest. No, no, it isn't me. It's the person who co-hosted (with me) the book club meeting regarding Billy Walters' book.

Tell Fezzik to have a good day, mickey. And please tell him that his predecessor co-hosted the book club meeting. He'll get a kick out of that, I'm sure.

[redietz]

Out of curiosity, what is Fezzik's ATS record in Circa? The Circa contest and the (free) BetOnline contest have the same format. I assume Fezzik may have a somewhat better record than my co-host, who is 32 1/2 - 17 1/2 ATS.

[mickeycrimm]

Out of curiosity, what is Fezzik's ATS record in Circa? The Circa contest and the (free) BetOnline contest have the same format. I assume Fezzik may have a somewhat better record than my co-host, who is 32 1/2 - 17 1/2 ATS.

Try googling it.

[mickeycrimm]

Fezzik is a great, great NFL contest player, maybe the greatest NFL contest player of all time.

Having said that, he also swore off sports gambling (other than props) in a mea culpa "retirement column" published in the Review-Journal some years back. I leave people in the know to understand why that column was written. Some people win NFL contests. Some people helm high-stakes sports betting cartels. And (perhaps) never the twain shall meet.

Speaking of people who helm high stakes sports betting cartels, a certain someone, picking five NFL games per week ATS, is in 100th place out of 20,000+ in the BetOnline NFL Mega-Contest. No, no, it isn't me. It's the person who co-hosted (with me) the book club meeting regarding Billy Walters' book.

Tell Fezzik to have a good day, mickey. And please tell him that his predecessor co-hosted the book club meeting. He'll get a kick out of that, I'm sure.

If this person was the co-host then why are you not publishing his name? What did you tell the press, that the book club meeting will be hosted by a person that will go unnamed?

[redietz]

Talk to Fezzik. He'll understand completely. And maybe he'll be more motivated to explain things to you.

[cyberbabble]

About the Fezzik bet above

Betting an off market line is usually good. You need to know the juice part of the bet to be sure. If the juice is about the same, -7.5-110 vs -8-110 then it's a good bet. If the juice is different by more than a few cents, it may be a bad bet. -7.5-120 is worse than -8-110 because the extra juice eats up the gain from the 1/2 point. It depends on what the line is. 3 is a key number and 1/2 point off of 3 would cost a lot in juice. 8 is not a key number so it doesn't take much of a change in juice to flip which bet is the best.

Draft Kings doesn't operate in Nevada. Somebody in another state would have make the bet. If they are betting in Fezziks account then DK would close the account if they found out.

[accountinquestion]

Talk to Fezzik. He'll understand completely. And maybe he'll be more motivated to explain things to you.

Could you possibly use the 'talk to such and such' tactic more?

You've done this more often than I can count as cover for your bullshit.

[mickeycrimm]

Talk to Fezzik. He'll understand completely. And maybe he'll be more motivated to explain things to you.

Could you possibly use the 'talk to such and such' tactic more?

You've done this more often than I can count as cover for your bullshit.

Dietz is also big on "If you travel a thousand miles I'll answer your question."

[monet]

Circa Offends me by not giving me a plaque on their Sports Bettors Hall of Fame.
And now this.
My Feeling is Truly Hurt...

What I get a kick out of at VCT, as they discuss KewlJ's sports betting and bonusing, is that it takes place in a thread called "Professional Sports Betting."

And yet, it appears that the only person who ever filed taxes as a professional sports bettor in that thread was (ahem) me. So you have a "Professional Sports Betting" thread whose primary feature is people who aren't professional sports bettors explaining why they are right to a professional sports bettor.

The only person in the latest kewlJ discussion who has any clue is AxelWolf, and frankly, he knows less than your average experienced sports bettor. I have accounts at the two offshores kewlJ mentioned, and I've had these accounts for 20+ years. But nobody asked my opinion. LOL. The naivete of these "APs" is comical. It's really bad when someone like me doesn't butt in and you just allow them to speculate and pontificate. They come across as less and less savvy the more you allow them to banter with each other.

[redietz]

Circa Offends me by not giving me a plaque on their Sports Bettors Hall of Fame.
And now this.
My Feeling is Truly Hurt...

What I get a kick out of at VCT, as they discuss KewlJ's sports betting and bonusing, is that it takes place in a thread called "Professional Sports Betting."

And yet, it appears that the only person who ever filed taxes as a professional sports bettor in that thread was (ahem) me. So you have a "Professional Sports Betting" thread whose primary feature is people who aren't professional sports bettors explaining why they are right to a professional sports bettor.

The only person in the latest kewlJ discussion who has any clue is AxelWolf, and frankly, he knows less than your average experienced sports bettor. I have accounts at the two offshores kewlJ mentioned, and I've had these accounts for 20+ years. But nobody asked my opinion. LOL. The naivete of these "APs" is comical. It's really bad when someone like me doesn't butt in and you just allow them to speculate and pontificate. They come across as less and less savvy the more you allow them to banter with each other.

My error, monet. I forgot about you, which may be a worse insult. Other than your addiction to parlays, you clearly know your way around a sports book. You can paddle me the next time I'm in LV. I'll keep you posted. We can have a drink at The Green Door. Seedvalue is the bartender.

[AxelWolf]

Out of curiosity, what is Fezzik's ATS record in Circa? The Circa contest and the (free) BetOnline contest have the same format. I assume Fezzik may have a somewhat better record than my co-host, who is 32 1/2 - 17 1/2 ATS.

How much does that pay? And why are you guy always jacking around in the free/cheap contests that have little to no value?

What's the most you ever ever paid for a contest with your own money?


What's the biggest single bet you have made with your own money?

[redietz]

Out of curiosity, what is Fezzik's ATS record in Circa? The Circa contest and the (free) BetOnline contest have the same format. I assume Fezzik may have a somewhat better record than my co-host, who is 32 1/2 - 17 1/2 ATS.

How much does that pay? And why are you guy always jacking around in the free/cheap contests that have little to no value?

What's the most you ever ever paid for a contest with your own money?


What's the biggest single bet you have made with your own money?

What an ass. If you had any brains or experience, you'd realize that, over the last 50 years, the NFL is the LEAST beatable of the spread sports. That's part of the reason you see so many contests with decent entrance fees. Nobody is scared of people playing the NFL, so bring on your expertise, have a Circa get-together, and share your angles.

And if you ever did any actual research, which you're too lazy to do, you would have read this, which is actually the most I paid for any given contest.

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...nd-edmund.html

It wasn't a lot, but for a one-week contest, it was a fair amount.

Axelwolf, the original high roller. LOL.

[accountinquestion]

Out of curiosity, what is Fezzik's ATS record in Circa? The Circa contest and the (free) BetOnline contest have the same format. I assume Fezzik may have a somewhat better record than my co-host, who is 32 1/2 - 17 1/2 ATS.

How much does that pay? And why are you guy always jacking around in the free/cheap contests that have little to no value?

What's the most you ever ever paid for a contest with your own money?


What's the biggest single bet you have made with your own money?

What an ass. If you had any brains or experience, you'd realize that, over the last 50 years, the NFL is the LEAST beatable of the spread sports. That's part of the reason you see so many contests with decent entrance fees. Nobody is scared of people playing the NFL, so bring on your expertise, have a Circa get-together, and share your angles.

And if you ever did any actual research, which you're too lazy to do, you would have read this, which is actually the most I paid for any given contest.

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...nd-edmund.html

It wasn't a lot, but for a one-week contest, it was a fair amount.

Axelwolf, the original high roller. LOL.

First off I don't read blogs by scumbags but secondly (aimed at whomever) how many of these contests allow multiple entries?

I am not surprised that NFL has the sharpest lines over past 50 years and perhaps there is some underlying effect caused by the scoring/betting system but it seems reasonable to believe that people who bet actual big $$ would find the NFL valuable just because of the volume of bets they can get down.

lol redietz aka mr "do the research"

I actually spent time doing the research before fellas and the conclusion will be he is full of shit.

PS - One more thing. Given redietz's views on how to use the term EV then it is VERY likely he doesn't actually understand the true EV of each tournament. Much less how much time he puts into it.

[mickeycrimm]

Out of curiosity, what is Fezzik's ATS record in Circa? The Circa contest and the (free) BetOnline contest have the same format. I assume Fezzik may have a somewhat better record than my co-host, who is 32 1/2 - 17 1/2 ATS.

How much does that pay? And why are you guy always jacking around in the free/cheap contests that have little to no value?

What's the most you ever ever paid for a contest with your own money?


What's the biggest single bet you have made with your own money?

He jacks around in the low rollers because he's a small timer.

[redietz]

I didn't know 1K entry fees for one-week contests was low rolling. Obviously, mickey crimm travels in wealthier circles than I do.

The questions don't even make any sense. If you recruit enough people, you can put as many entries as you like in Circa or the SuperContest, just incognito. It has been done, and it will continue to be done.

The same applies for virtually any contest from free offshore with 20,000 people to the largest contest Circa has to offer.

Figuring EV for such contests can only be done if you confuse the math of random events with the math of non-random events. There is an economy of scale advantage to shepherding multiple entries that can't be ascertained with simple math applicable to random events. Anybody entering these contests knows it becomes an almost logarithmic relationship between number of entries and results. These are not random drawings.

Sorry, did I just say that? My bad.

All of the above is obvious, by the way.

[accountinquestion]

So related to this - let me try to estimate the EV of this circa tournament. I am not claiming to have "done much research" but I will give it an honest effort.

So I see Circa million https://www.circasports.com/circa-sports-million

1k entry. 6 million guarantee.

Lets say that is 9000 entries. Actually no, 4680 entries on results sheet. Nice - an overlay.

What is the EV of a great sports pick tournament player? It is hard and I only have poker tournaments to go off. People seem to think 50% for online is like 200% live.

We'll go with 200% ROI or 2x the stake. I suspect this is super generous.

So the overlay is 6mil/1k - 4680 .. 1320 .. the overlay per player is 282. So the EV on this tournament for a pro could be .50 to 2.0 of 1282.

That is a range of 641 to 2564.

Not bad. I'm not sure about the rest. If you are examining all this stuff like crazy it must take up sick hours. Clearly Ditz likes that stuff though so it is hard to count it into his hourly. Most APs find what they're doing to be a grind.

5 picks. Lets say 5 hours a week. 18 weeks. 90 hours is an hourly of $7.12 to $28.49.

In theory you could enter this tournament 5 times and that would be 5x the above numbers. I would tend to think $140 an hour playing 5 tournaments. You can only do this during NFL season though. That also assumes you have the BR to stake yourself and with 5 entries at once.

[accountinquestion]

I didn't know 1K entry fees for one-week contests was low rolling. Obviously, mickey crimm travels in wealthier circles than I do.

The questions don't even make any sense. If you recruit enough people, you can put as many entries as you like in Circa or the SuperContest, just incognito. It has been done, and it will continue to be done.

The same applies for virtually any contest from free offshore with 20,000 people to the largest contest Circa has to offer.

Figuring EV for such contests can only be done if you confuse the math of random events with the math of non-random events. There is an economy of scale advantage to shepherding multiple entries that can't be ascertained with simple math applicable to random events. Anybody entering these contests knows it becomes an almost logarithmic relationship between number of entries and results. These are not random drawings.

Sorry, did I just say that? My bad.

All of the above is obvious, by the way.

Yes by sock-puppeting it up/using beards you could clearly scale way up. I don't deny that. Whether you do or not is a more interesting question. Now that we've broached the subject I'm sure you will hint at it somewhere going forward.

I actually can kinda see how colluding could give an edge to be higher in the pay-rankings. If it is very top heavy you really just want to uncorrelate your bets when proper. It is interesting to think about anyway. Just like blackjack tournaments have their own strategy.