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Thread: Professional Sportsbetting

  1. #1401
    The above analysis is a waste of reading time. It's comical.

    You'd have to define "sports pick tournament player" -- LOL -- as if all sports are lumped together. As if you know whether the results someone got in a prior contest were their selections as opposed to someone else's. Impossible to tell. Impossible to tell who is bearding whom. Impossible to tell, as in poker, who is colluding and part of the same competing organism, in a sense. Impossible to tell how many entries are under one aegis. In old poker lingo, hard to tell how many horses are from one stable.

    It's stupid to go through exercises like this. Serves zero purpose except one. It gives some anonymous dingbats the feeling that they know what they are talking about and gives them some ridiculous, totally inappropriate chance to work out some first-grade masturbatory math in service of pretending they have a handle on gambling.

    Why would anyone with zero experience decide they have a grasp of things they know nothing about? It's just flat-out silly. Like using the math of random events and trying to apply it to non-random events. That's fundamental moron territory.

  2. #1402
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    It gives some anonymous dingbats the feeling that they know what they are talking about and gives them some ridiculous, totally inappropriate chance to work out some first-grade masturbatory math in service of pretending they have a handle on gambling.

    Why would anyone with zero experience decide they have a grasp of things they know nothing about? It's just flat-out silly. Like using the math of random events and trying to apply it to non-random events. That's fundamental moron territory.
    Why do you hate math?

  3. #1403
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    The above analysis is a waste of reading time. It's comical.

    You'd have to define "sports pick tournament player" -- LOL -- as if all sports are lumped together. As if you know whether the results someone got in a prior contest were their selections as opposed to someone else's. Impossible to tell. Impossible to tell who is bearding whom. Impossible to tell, as in poker, who is colluding and part of the same competing organism, in a sense. Impossible to tell how many entries are under one aegis. In old poker lingo, hard to tell how many horses are from one stable.

    It's stupid to go through exercises like this. Serves zero purpose except one. It gives some anonymous dingbats the feeling that they know what they are talking about and gives them some ridiculous, totally inappropriate chance to work out some first-grade masturbatory math in service of pretending they have a handle on gambling.

    Why would anyone with zero experience decide they have a grasp of things they know nothing about? It's just flat-out silly. Like using the math of random events and trying to apply it to non-random events. That's fundamental moron territory.
    Lol that is another thing you do ! King of the strawmen. In addition to "you haven't done your research." "if you haven't done your research then I'm not going to waste my time" "contact so and so" "travel 1000 miles where someone is filming me yabber on with their phone. NO QUESTION OFF-LIMITS"

    Doofus I never anything about knowing who does what or who is colluding and such. What are you even going on about. I'm just trying to have a discussion about sports picking tournaments and strike up a sincere thread of discussion if anyone has thoughts that can actually generalize. Not some one trick pony that is Redietz.

    "It serves zero purpose except one". Redietz, my dear genius, did it never occur to you that calculating how much money you make whether in absolutely or hourly terms is something that uhhm yanno maybe consider?

    Epic you can't even tell me where my estimations are off. They're likely pretty close when taking the effects of collusion out. Which I'm not sure is a thing for sure but it kinda seems like maybe it could be. Definitely could be in certain spots during pay jumps. Not sure how that plays out overall.

    Too bad your lack of credibility is so well deserved. Was hoping you had some input.
    VCT - the finest of all sites with only the finest gamblers one will ever encounter. Book it. .. and then there is FraudJ ..

  4. #1404
    Anyway, it seems like maybe one could do ok in life if they had a big enough BR by playing sports pickem contests. (didn't sweat $500)

    The one thing I have absolutely 0 clue about is how many people who enter are pro-bettors or backed by pro-bettors vs what APs call a ploppy.

    It is also hard to know how much collusion is actually going on. It could very well be there are huge networks of beards that are sucking out a ton of EV.
    VCT - the finest of all sites with only the finest gamblers one will ever encounter. Book it. .. and then there is FraudJ ..

  5. #1405
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post

    Why do you hate math?
    Because it tells him he has insufficient funds to pay his tax bill....

    Name:  IMG341449280464675285.jpg
Views: 196
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    Too easy...lol
    FraudJ's word is worth less than the prop cash in Singer's safe...RIP

  6. #1406
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    What an ass. If you had any brains or experience, you'd realize that, over the last 50 years, the NFL is the LEAST beatable of the spread sports. That's part of the reason you see so many contests with decent entrance fees. Nobody is scared of people playing the NFL, so bring on your expertise, have a Circa get-together, and share your angles.

    And if you ever did any actual research, which you're too lazy to do, you would have read this, which is actually the most I paid for any given contest.

    https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...nd-edmund.htmlIt wasn't a lot, but for a one-week contest, it was a fair amount.
    Axelwolf, the original high roller. LOL.
    You paid 1K in a contest 38 years ago. Big whoopdy do.

    You've made it crystal clear you don't bet NFL because it's to hard. My guess is it's damn sure hard on you. But it ain't hard on everybody. Billy Walters crushed the NFL. So don't say it can't be done.

    Walters is in his late 70's but he's not the dinosaur you are. While you are still using pencil and scratch paper this is what Walters is doing. Excerpt from his book:

    "First off I've been successful because I've worked with some of the brightest minds in the business, true geniuses when it comes to computer modeling and probability theory. For years, my proprietary betting models were built by teams of best-in-class handicappers, quants, and statisticians....Our team members act like hedge funds analysts, assigning a numerical value to every conceivable factor or variable capable of affecting sporting events to within a tenth of a point."

    Walters' is pure math, which you've said more than once can't be done. With this book club nonsense you are trying to put yourself in the same league as Walters with the "here's the holes in Walters strategy. Yes, there are a few gems in the book but you have to squint real hard to see them."

    Walters achieved what you couldn't but you arrogantly think you are a better handicapper than him and his team of geeks. That is pure arrogance. You've never shown yourself to be anything but a small timer.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 11-19-2023 at 05:17 PM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  7. #1407
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    What an ass. If you had any brains or experience, you'd realize that, over the last 50 years, the NFL is the LEAST beatable of the spread sports. That's part of the reason you see so many contests with decent entrance fees. Nobody is scared of people playing the NFL, so bring on your expertise, have a Circa get-together, and share your angles.

    And if you ever did any actual research, which you're too lazy to do, you would have read this, which is actually the most I paid for any given contest.

    https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...nd-edmund.htmlIt wasn't a lot, but for a one-week contest, it was a fair amount.
    Axelwolf, the original high roller. LOL.
    You paid 1K in a contest 38 years ago. Big whoopdy do.

    You've made it crystal clear you don't bet NFL because it's to hard. My guess is it's damn sure hard on you. But it ain't hard on everybody. Billy Walters crushed the NFL. So don't say it can't be done.

    Walters is in his late 70's but he's not the dinosaur you are. While you are still using pencil and scratch paper this is what Walters is doing. Excerpt from his book:

    "First off I've been successful because I've worked with some of the brightest minds in the business, true geniuses when it comes to computer modeling and probability theory. For years, my proprietary betting models were built by teams of best-in-class handicappers, quants, and statisticians....Our team members act like hedge funds analysts, assigning a numerical value to every conceivable factor or variable capable of affecting sporting events to within a tenth of a point."

    Walters' is pure math, which you've said more than once can't be done. With this book club nonsense you are trying to put yourself in the same league as Walters with the "here's the holes in Walters strategy. Yes, there are a few gems in the book but you have to squint real hard to see them." Like you would know?

    Walters achieved what you couldn't but you think you are a better handicapper than him and his team of geeks. That is pure arrogance. You've never shown yourself to be anything but a small timer.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 11-19-2023 at 05:23 PM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  8. #1408
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Out of curiosity, what is Fezzik's ATS record in Circa? The Circa contest and the (free) BetOnline contest have the same format. I assume Fezzik may have a somewhat better record than my co-host, who is 32 1/2 - 17 1/2 ATS.
    How much does that pay? And why are you guy always jacking around in the free/cheap contests that have little to no value?

    What's the most you ever ever paid for a contest with your own money?


    What's the biggest single bet you have made with your own money?


    What an ass. If you had any brains or experience, you'd realize that, over the last 50 years, the NFL is the LEAST beatable of the spread sports. That's part of the reason you see so many contests with decent entrance fees. Nobody is scared of people playing the NFL, so bring on your expertise, have a Circa get-together, and share your angles.

    And if you ever did any actual research, which you're too lazy to do, you would have read this, which is actually the most I paid for any given contest.

    https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...nd-edmund.html

    It wasn't a lot, but for a one-week contest, it was a fair amount.

    Axelwolf, the original high roller. LOL.
    I have always known the NFL is probably the hardest to beat, so I'm not sure why you are telling me that.
    Why would I go around researching you? I dont have much of a reason to do so.
    I have only occasionally clicked a link here and there regarding your stuff. From what I know, correct me if I'm wrong you dont often if ever publicly post your picks prior to games. You dont take on new clients, correct? I dont really have a good reason to research you or your stuff.

    I don't know why you got nasty with me, I have only been asking you questions and commenting on things that don't make sense to me, I.E. the entire once-sided debate about there being no such thing as EV in sports.

    No brains, ehh. Well, I'm probably not as book-smart, mathematical, and educated as a great number of people on the forums. I do pride myself on having a great deal of logic.

    Either way, I know tons of people who are much smarter than I am, but they don't seem to have 2 nickels to rub together.

    I have been a full-time AP since I was about 23, and soon after becoming an AP I put together of the more well-known, as DarkOZ would say "feared" teams in LV"

    You said you know Anthony Curtis correct, you said we could ask him about you. Well, feel free to ask him about me. Let me know prior because I doubt he would remember I go by AxelWolf. Would you like his Number, I can ask him just in case. While you are at it I can get you into contact with some other well-known people in the gambling community you can ask about me. Even Mickey Crimm knows some of my past and about the team, he actually mentioned my name and the team on a post before he knew I was on the forums as AlxelWolf and before I knew who he was.

  9. #1409
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    How much does that pay? And why are you guy always jacking around in the free/cheap contests that have little to no value?

    What's the most you ever ever paid for a contest with your own money?


    What's the biggest single bet you have made with your own money?


    What an ass. If you had any brains or experience, you'd realize that, over the last 50 years, the NFL is the LEAST beatable of the spread sports. That's part of the reason you see so many contests with decent entrance fees. Nobody is scared of people playing the NFL, so bring on your expertise, have a Circa get-together, and share your angles.

    And if you ever did any actual research, which you're too lazy to do, you would have read this, which is actually the most I paid for any given contest.

    https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...nd-edmund.html

    It wasn't a lot, but for a one-week contest, it was a fair amount.

    Axelwolf, the original high roller. LOL.
    I have always known the NFL is probably the hardest to beat, so I'm not sure why you are telling me that.
    Why would I go around researching you? I dont have much of a reason to do so.
    I have only occasionally clicked a link here and there regarding your stuff. From what I know, correct me if I'm wrong you dont often if ever publicly post your picks prior to games. You dont take on new clients, correct? I dont really have a good reason to research you or your stuff.

    I don't know why you got nasty with me, I have only been asking you questions and commenting on things that don't make sense to me, I.E. the entire once-sided debate about there being no such thing as EV in sports.

    No brains, ehh. Well, I'm probably not as book-smart, mathematical, and educated as a great number of people on the forums. I do pride myself on having a great deal of logic.

    Either way, I know tons of people who are much smarter than I am, but they don't seem to have 2 nickels to rub together.

    I have been a full-time AP since I was about 23, and soon after becoming an AP I put together of the more well-known, as DarkOZ would say "feared" teams in LV"

    You said you know Anthony Curtis correct, you said we could ask him about you. Well, feel free to ask him about me. Let me know prior because I doubt he would remember I go by AxelWolf. Would you like his Number, I can ask him just in case. While you are at it I can get you into contact with some other well-known people in the gambling community you can ask about me. Even Mickey Crimm knows some of my past and about the team, he actually mentioned my name and the team on a post before he knew I was on the forums as AlxelWolf and before I knew who he was.
    I had heard about the "Change Boys" back in 1997. They were called that because they started out as kids pushing change carts in the casinos in the eearly 90's. I found out later that axel was the main "change boy." I had heard of a lot of there exploits on the Strip.

    There was a $5 8/5 Jacks or Better progressive (2% royal meter) in the high roller room at the Riverside/Laughlin. The royal started at 20K. Someone told me that if it reached 42K the change boys would be in to team play it until they hit it. So occasionally I would step into the high roller room to see where the meter was at.

    So the meter got to 42K and the change boys appeared out of nowhere. I didn't know them but observed them a few minutes that day. I stopped back in the next morning. The royal had been hit and the change boys were nowhere to be seen.

    One thing I know about that kind of progressive. It takes at least a 200K bankroll to even think about throwing down on it. Axel had six figure bankroll back in the 90's.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  10. #1410
    God Bless the great Don Laughlin--a true pioneer and master of the Nevada casino industry. Something a fraud like kew would know nothing about unless it was tied to Rainbow fag week or liars anonymous.

  11. #1411
    Nobody gives a shit about plays from 20 years ago.

  12. #1412
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Nobody gives a shit about plays from 20 years ago.
    The discussion was not about the play. It was about axel having 6 figure bankroll to throw down on plays like that after just a few years of AP back in the 90's.

    Ditz likes to talk down to axel. But I have the inkling that, as a professional gambler, Dietz is not in the same league as axel. Its hands down that axel is a more knowledgeable and experienced gambler than Dietz. And I think he amassed a bigger fortune at a much younger age than Dietz. I don't think Dietz amassed much of a fortune at all.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  13. #1413
    I don't claim to be a "knowledgeable gambler." I am NOT a Leonardo Da AP like mickey and account and Axel, who are true polymaths, at least in their own minds (and social circles).

    What I am is a knowledgeable football sports gambler, specifically a very knowledgeable college football sports gambler.

    My net worth, as I've stated several times here, is about average for an American age 65. It's stunningly average. Now I'm talking median net worth, given that high end billionaires skew the "average" per se. So I am middle of the road for age 65, almost exactly. I have no idea if Axelwolf is worth more or less (and I'm not including spousal worth, so bear that in mind, or I would track much higher).

    That's it. Carry on, polyglot geniuses. I kneel to your wisdom and amazing wealth. And mickey, there's a chance my comic books are worth more than what you have in the bank. I do have an Amazing Fantasy #15. Hard to believe I owe taxes.

    I am, in fact, heading to the tax office today. To check on them, mind you, not pay them.

  14. #1414
    Originally Posted by jbjb View Post
    Nobody gives a shit about plays from 20 years ago.
    I don't really argue that point, but on that same token who cares about plays that happened yesterday?

    I guess there is some merit and things that happened 20- 30 years ago because oftentimes the same type of plays resurface over and over again. Sometimes they come back a lot stronger. Oftentimes certain things change, but the concepts are the same. Knowing what to look for is half the battle.

    Red called sports bonuses a gimmick that won't last, and yet they're still here 20+ years later, I'll go out on a limb and say, with all the competition they are here to stay. If done correctly I'm sure someone could make a lot more than whatever he is making by handicapping.

  15. #1415
    For a gambling nerd the old plays can be interesting. How rhey evolved and such. Going after vp progs doesn't match it.
    VCT - the finest of all sites with only the finest gamblers one will ever encounter. Book it. .. and then there is FraudJ ..

  16. #1416
    Here's an actual "professional sports betting" report. I was eliminated from a "Survivor" contest at one offshore yesterday. Started with 500+; seven people are left. I wound up tying for eighth. I hated using Washington, but they were my biggest remaining favorite, so I swallowed my personal distaste and got myself eliminated by using them.

    One interesting aspect is that the people who survived all had Washington available to them but refused to use them. Kudos to them. I absolutely despised going against an NFL team that had been hammered 49-17 or whatever the previous week, but I swallowed my personal opinion and did it anyway and got myself eliminated. First place is 15K.

    The other interesting aspect was that this particular game was an example of a technical piece of advice from the Walters book that, if you read carefully, is one of the couple of useful tidbits that Walters (to my mind, surprisingly) mentioned. I didn't expect Walters to formally spell it out, but he did. You just have to read the charts carefully to see it. Again, it's not some big secret to actual sports gamblers, but it is not really well known to the public. Walters formalizes it in a way that's probably overly precise, but I actually agree with his ballparking number adjustment in a general sense. I was surprised he stepped out and put the generous number he did on it, but I would not have been more than half a point different had I been forced to opine.

    Bottom line: I lost, and deservedly so. The people who advanced showed some balls and deserved to advance.

  17. #1417
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Here's an actual "professional sports betting" report. I was eliminated from a "Survivor" contest at one offshore yesterday. Started with 500+; seven people are left. I wound up tying for eighth. I hated using Washington, but they were my biggest remaining favorite, so I swallowed my personal distaste and got myself eliminated by using them.

    One interesting aspect is that the people who survived all had Washington available to them but refused to use them. Kudos to them. I absolutely despised going against an NFL team that had been hammered 49-17 or whatever the previous week, but I swallowed my personal opinion and did it anyway and got myself eliminated. First place is 15K.

    The other interesting aspect was that this particular game was an example of a technical piece of advice from the Walters book that, if you read carefully, is one of the couple of useful tidbits that Walters (to my mind, surprisingly) mentioned. I didn't expect Walters to formally spell it out, but he did. You just have to read the charts carefully to see it. Again, it's not some big secret to actual sports gamblers, but it is not really well known to the public. Walters formalizes it in a way that's probably overly precise, but I actually agree with his ballparking number adjustment in a general sense. I was surprised he stepped out and put the generous number he did on it, but I would not have been more than half a point different had I been forced to opine.

    Bottom line: I lost, and deservedly so. The people who advanced showed some balls and deserved to advance.
    Another thing Redietz does. He ever says one thing useful outside of NFL nerd opinions.

    This is more of the same. Goes to so much effort to not say anything useful but a veiled brag.

    We get it Redietz, you need validation. Pathetic. Pat yourself on the back some more while everyone else realizes how clueless you are in general.
    VCT - the finest of all sites with only the finest gamblers one will ever encounter. Book it. .. and then there is FraudJ ..

  18. #1418
    Axelwolf mentioned the merits of what happened 20-30 years ago. I am interested in that just from a historical point. And I recognize that anything Red says about anything historical has an element of self promotion, or self "bragging". That is ok. I don't have a problem with anybody that is proud of their success at any given time.

    My only issue with Red has to do with the bonus opportunities that are available now and his trashing of APs that take advantage of that. This is what APs do, find some advantage and play it. APs that aren't traditional type sports bettors playing this bonus game, in no way diminishes anything Red has done as a more traditional type sports bettor for decades. That he feels threatened that it does seems to be some kind of insecurity on his part.
    Mdawg should release Shackleford from the NDA (gag order), so Wizard can tell what is really going on. Let the light (and truth) shine in.

  19. #1419
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Here's an actual "professional sports betting" report. I was eliminated from a "Survivor" contest at one offshore yesterday. Started with 500+; seven people are left. I wound up tying for eighth. I hated using Washington, but they were my biggest remaining favorite, so I swallowed my personal distaste and got myself eliminated by using them.

    One interesting aspect is that the people who survived all had Washington available to them but refused to use them. Kudos to them. I absolutely despised going against an NFL team that had been hammered 49-17 or whatever the previous week, but I swallowed my personal opinion and did it anyway and got myself eliminated. First place is 15K.

    The other interesting aspect was that this particular game was an example of a technical piece of advice from the Walters book that, if you read carefully, is one of the couple of useful tidbits that Walters (to my mind, surprisingly) mentioned. I didn't expect Walters to formally spell it out, but he did. You just have to read the charts carefully to see it. Again, it's not some big secret to actual sports gamblers, but it is not really well known to the public. Walters formalizes it in a way that's probably overly precise, but I actually agree with his ballparking number adjustment in a general sense. I was surprised he stepped out and put the generous number he did on it, but I would not have been more than half a point different had I been forced to opine.

    Bottom line: I lost, and deservedly so. The people who advanced showed some balls and deserved to advance.
    Another thing Redietz does. He ever says one thing useful outside of NFL nerd opinions.

    This is more of the same. Goes to so much effort to not say anything useful but a veiled brag.

    We get it Redietz, you need validation. Pathetic. Pat yourself on the back some more while everyone else realizes how clueless you are in general.

    You know, I tested you guys recently. I reported an offshore that gave 100% free play on losses for every Monday Night game, capped at $200. It sits right there in the "Talk About Your Free Play" thread. Post #35.

    The only response was semi-comedic by Dom.

    I guess $200 in free play for every Monday Night loss just wasn't good enough for the VCT "APs" to appreciate. Nobody said thanks. Nobody said, "Which offshore?"

    LOL. So the test worked. Either everybody here is too wealthy to bother with free money every Monday night or they have their own bizarro agendas or they don't really read.

    I guess a poll is in order. Is $200 in free play for every Monday Night loser not "useful?" Account says it's not. He's the "AP." He's the expert.

  20. #1420
    Who cares what you call it. Just go make your money.

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