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Thread: Professional Sportsbetting

  1. #2101
    A new sportsbook in New Jersey is promising not to ban sharp bettors:

    https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/1774520726541799476
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  2. #2102
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    A new sportsbook in New Jersey is promising not to ban sharp bettors:
    <submits bet>
    wait ... wait ... wait ... wait ... wait ...
    "BOOM! Accepted"

    Has he really been limited at every single book in NJ? There's one operator, Prophet, using an exchange format. I thought they allowed anyone, although if I understand correctly, the format itself limits the potential for big bets because you need a willing customer to take the other side of your action.

    And I had the impression Circa is very tolerant, although they're not available in NJ.

  3. #2103
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    A new sportsbook in New Jersey is promising not to ban sharp bettors:
    <submits bet>
    wait ... wait ... wait ... wait ... wait ...
    "BOOM! Accepted"

    Has he really been limited at every single book in NJ? There's one operator, Prophet, using an exchange format. I thought they allowed anyone, although if I understand correctly, the format itself limits the potential for big bets because you need a willing customer to take the other side of your action.

    And I had the impression Circa is very tolerant, although they're not available in NJ.
    All sharps welcome at Circa.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  4. #2104
    After getting chased out of this thread, and after some “studying up,” UNKewlJ has been chopping it up with HalfSmoke in an REDietz created sports betting thread:

    https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...the-Seeds-2024

    The two VCT members who vowed never to post here again…posting quite frequently lately, to each other.
    I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  5. #2105
    Chinamaniac has made a couple of tweets promising to release information on neworking:

    china
    @chinamaniac
    The next volume of Maniac Chronicles started as just a networking piece but I think you are going to need to bookmark it when it is live because it is going to be much more.....

    - Networking- finding partners of all kinds
    - Dealing with partners
    -Dealing with bookies and agents
    -Flipping bookies and agents
    -Flipping whales intentionally and unintentionally
    - How the relationships typically work with partners and bookies (and scenarios)
    -Scaling
    -Vetting bookies and new partners
    -Basic expectations for how arrangements work (free roll, shared risk, etc.) in different contexts (group works with an originator, group partners to get an account, etc.).
    -Taxes
    - How does a new college grad with a passion for the industry get into it?
    -necessary bankroll
    - who pays what when stiffs happen typically

    I am taking notes and piecing stuff together and will try to deliver this in the next week or 2

    china
    @chinamaniac
    Year Ago -> 500 Followers
    Today -> 2500 Followers

    To celebrate the account growth I promise to give the most comprehensive ďlong formĒ breakdown on networking and dealing with partners of all kinds that Twitter has ever seen in the sports betting realm.

    Some of this may be routine to some but it should be a good read for the majority and should help anyone below a pro tremendously.

    This post will be based on my experiences as well as all of the knowledge I have accumulated by listening to and dealing with others while gambling on the internet for 20+ years

    I hope to have this done sometime in the next 5 to 12 days
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 04-14-2024 at 02:22 PM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  6. #2106
    As you may know the Masters Golf Tournament ran from Apr 11 to Apr 14. The day before the start, Apr 10, China tweeted his bets. He won 8 of his 9 bets. He admits he knows nothing about golf so he couldn't possibly be using anything but a purely mathematical model:

    https://twitter.com/#!/x/status/1778167656673067451

    china
    @chinamaniac
    ⛳️ Masters Matchup Bets ⛳️

    Here are some matchups I played for the Masters... Tail at your own risk....

    -While I am a professional bettor, I HAVE NOT been betting this stuff much since 2021-2022ish....

    -Over a few hundred samples ( very small sample) I was winning north of 60% betting what I consider to be meaningful money on these....

    - I am confident in the method I use to come up with these plays until data arrives that tells me I am a losing bettor which could easily happen....

    -I don't watch golf and I know nothing about golf stats and won't watch a single hole this week....

    - I handicapped these by analyzing the market

    - I find golf boring to watch so I will do something really exciting like yard work instead.....

    Plays are Bolded

    Finau > Dustin Johnson -130
    Fleetwood > Henley -130
    Cam Young > Lowry -105
    Sam Burns > Homa -105
    Strekka > Thorbjorn -103
    Garcia > Rose -129
    Koepka > Dustin Johnson -129
    Zalatoris > Justin Thomas -110
    Morikawa > Homa -137
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 04-16-2024 at 04:50 AM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  7. #2107
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    The day before the start, Apr 10, China tweeted his bets. He won 8 of his 9 bets.
    I'm seeing 6-1-2. He tweeted that he went 9-1, but from context I think he intended to write 6-1.

    The pushes were Garcia vs Rose (both 151 for 36 holes), and Morikawa vs Homa (both 284 for 72 holes).

    A good outcome, but he was laying negative odds on all bets.

  8. #2108
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    The day before the start, Apr 10, China tweeted his bets. He won 8 of his 9 bets.
    I'm seeing 6-1-2. He tweeted that he went 9-1, but from context I think he intended to write 6-1.

    The pushes were Garcia vs Rose (both 151 for 36 holes), and Morikawa vs Homa (both 284 for 72 holes).

    A good outcome, but he was laying negative odds on all bets.
    positive odds do not automatically qualify as an advantage
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  9. #2109
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    positive odds do not automatically qualify as an advantage
    That would be cool though. (1) Bet the plussest odds you can find. (2) Profit.

    That's kind of how people pick their video poker. They look for the pay schedule with the biggest numbers.

    Now for my professional sportsbetting question. Playing one of the major offshore books, I've achieved a major downswing. Lifetime, I've now deposited about double my withdrawals. I usually take a bonus on deposits, but not always. I always play well in excess of rollover requirements.

    Currently, I've gone broke and I see they've zeroed my rollover requirement. Would it be reasonable to take a bonus on my next deposit? I don't know the norm for zeroing rollover.

  10. #2110
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    positive odds do not automatically qualify as an advantage
    That would be cool though. (1) Bet the plussest odds you can find. (2) Profit.

    That's kind of how people pick their video poker. They look for the pay schedule with the biggest numbers.

    Now for my professional sportsbetting question. Playing one of the major offshore books, I've achieved a major downswing. Lifetime, I've now deposited about double my withdrawals. I usually take a bonus on deposits, but not always. I always play well in excess of rollover requirements.

    Currently, I've gone broke and I see they've zeroed my rollover requirement. Would it be reasonable to take a bonus on my next deposit? I don't know the norm for zeroing rollover.
    If you bet enough it would be worth your effort to get them to clarify and preferably in an email.

    I would expect it to be zeroed but I don't have enough experience to know anything. (cue redietz)
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

  11. #2111
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    Now for my professional sportsbetting question. Playing one of the major offshore books, I've achieved a major downswing. Lifetime, I've now deposited about double my withdrawals. I usually take a bonus on deposits, but not always. I always play well in excess of rollover requirements.

    Currently, I've gone broke and I see they've zeroed my rollover requirement. Would it be reasonable to take a bonus on my next deposit? I don't know the norm for zeroing rollover.
    If your account hits zero (meaning you have lost), then your rollover requirements are complete and reset at zero. Remaining rollover doesn't get added to a new deposit and rollover requirements. If they did that it would be incentive to not redeposit with that book, but find a new one.

    As for the situation you find yourself in, having registered a lifetime loss with more deposits than withdrawals, this can work to your advantage. This is exactly where I was last September at the start of football season. two different books had me as a losing player of several years. Not huge amounts, as I was just betting recreationally. But losing. So when football season started and I decided to give the bonus whoring thing a serious go, playing more money than I usually did, I was able to negotiate better terms, bonus and rollover, because of my history as a losing player, at both those off-shore books. I negotiated terms that weren't posted on their websites. But you have to ask and negotiate. It isn't just handed to you.

    Do you have a host or account rep? they call it a host, but it isn't a host like at a B & M casino. It is just a rep that is familiar with your account. You should contact that rep/host and ask what the best terms you can get are. They will usually offer something that isn't posted on the website. And if you play hard ball, and say something like "no thanks, I can do better elsewhere", you will get an even better offer. And this can be done by email, you don't have to call them.

    Now I have received bonuses and rollover that I have played through twice now and collected profits since I started this last September and I am currently into my 3rd cycle (still at good bonuses and rollover....good meaning you can make some money with). A couple more experienced players keep telling me they will cut me off or at least no longer offer me these "premium" terms. Maybe they will. But so far I have made good money with bonus and rollever terms better than advertises and all because I had a history involving some losses when I started getting serious.
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  12. #2112
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Kew you're not fooling anybody with your stoopid "my blackjack journey" and sports betting stuff....and you never have. You've never done anything more than "lift" information, procedures and tactics off of the true players and concocted stories of your own with it. If you're not seeing this reputation you've earned, then you are certified Philadelphia-dumb.
    I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  13. #2113
    One piece of advice that someone gave me: Once you have met your rollover requirement, don't withdraw everything meaning zero out your account. leave a small amount in there and just make small bets for a week or two. Then you can go ahead and make another deposit, with whatever new terms (even if you have a small balance).
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  14. #2114
    Originally Posted by MDawg View Post
    Anything UNKewlJ hasn't had time to "study up" on (and we're talking YEARS, it takes him that long to wear one of his fables smooth enough to pass muster, we're dealing with a very dim witted individual here) he ends up sticking his fat foot in his wide loose mouth over.
    I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  15. #2115
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I negotiated terms that weren't posted on their websites. But you have to ask and negotiate. It isn't just handed to you.

    Do you have a host or account rep?
    I'm not a big player. Each bet is usually under $500, and I'm under $100k in cumulative bets.

    I've never been contacted by a person. They invited me to their "virtual" host service, which apparently awards freeplay or cash beyond the regular VIP loyalty awards. I haven't seen enough yet to assess the value.

    My priority is to remain welcome, because I don't want to burn important bridges while I'm in the primitive stages of knowledge. I'm reluctant to go into attention-seeking negotiation mode because my deficit situation is likely quite temporary. I'm not financially down overall -- it's just that the wins have come elsewhere at other books. Long-term at this book, I hope to subsist mainly on loyalty benefits and promos.

    I don't want to waste the current negative variance, so I think I'll do a small, non-bonus reload. Give them more action, and THEN take another deposit bonus.

  16. #2116
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    I don't want to waste the current negative variance, so I think I'll do a small, non-bonus reload. Give them more action, and THEN take another deposit bonus.
    ---> Doraemon the Movie: Nobita's New Great Adventure into the Underworld - The Seven Magic Users

    https://anagram-solver.net/Idontwant...s?partial=true


    The film opens with Professor Mangetsu, a Japanese astrophysicist and his daughter, Miyoko, being informed and startled about the approach of a giant black hole that previously destroyed the space probe Voyager 5. It is confirmed that this black hole is headed towards Earth.
    Oh, as I typed the above, several claps of thunder. Ha.
    Every one /everyone knows it all; yet, no thing /nothing is truly known by any one /anyone. Similarly, the suckers think that they win, but, the house always wins, unless to hand out an even worse beating.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsa6ojQcYXQ

    Garnabby + OppsIdidItAgain + ThomasClines (or TomasHClines) + The Grim Reaper + LMR + OneHitWonder (or 1HitWonder, 1Hit1der) + Bill Yung ---> GOTTLOB1, or GOTTLOB = Praise to God!

    Blog at https://garnabby.blogspot.com/

  17. #2117
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    The day before the start, Apr 10, China tweeted his bets. He won 8 of his 9 bets.
    I'm seeing 6-1-2. He tweeted that he went 9-1, but from context I think he intended to write 6-1.

    The pushes were Garcia vs Rose (both 151 for 36 holes), and Morikawa vs Homa (both 284 for 72 holes).

    A good outcome, but he was laying negative odds on all bets.
    positive odds do not automatically qualify as an advantage
    In case you haven't figured it out. Mickey is quite the bullshitter. Ha.
    Every one /everyone knows it all; yet, no thing /nothing is truly known by any one /anyone. Similarly, the suckers think that they win, but, the house always wins, unless to hand out an even worse beating.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsa6ojQcYXQ

    Garnabby + OppsIdidItAgain + ThomasClines (or TomasHClines) + The Grim Reaper + LMR + OneHitWonder (or 1HitWonder, 1Hit1der) + Bill Yung ---> GOTTLOB1, or GOTTLOB = Praise to God!

    Blog at https://garnabby.blogspot.com/

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