Professional Sportsbetting

[MisterV]

Karen is now a sports bettor.

This will be good.

Is there a band wagon she DOESN'T try to jump on?

Can't wait for all of her picks and sage explanations in their support.



__________________________________________________ ____________________________________________


"Mammie, go gets me 'dat copy o' "Sport Ill-strated," I and I jus' found at de bus stop. I and I needs to figure out hows to bet all de upcoming games."

Her long suffering mother stopped scrubbing the linoleum, took off her rubber gloves, swallowed a big belt of fortified wine and handed Karen the magazine.

"Now 'dat I and I is a sports gamblin' expert I and I is gonna win big."

Mammie let fly a stealthy toot of uncertainly bordering on disagreement.

"Chile, why is you all a sudden sayin' you knows jack shit 'bout sports? You is no athlete and has never watched sports on TV: fo' you it all be about scamming fools online, eatin' chicken and shittin' de flo'. "

"Shut yo' mouf, mammie...you knows I and I has a condition 'dat causes me to shit de flo."

Once again mammie regretted having shared the advice with Karen which the Magic Eight Ball presented when asked long ago why she shit de flo,' but that was urine under the bridge.

"Where is you gwine get de money to makes dese sport bets? You be broke as a joke."

"I and I reached out to my casino friends for money, dey always comes thru, jus' you wait and see."

Mammie took another deep pull from the bottle and got back to scrubbing, knowing in her heart that like always, her daughter's latest endeavor would once again blow up in her face.

[accountinquestion]

The fact you have it in for Tasha so bad yet want to cuddle up with Kewl pretty much locks down the fact you have some latent homo-based concern for Kewl.

[AxelWolf]

Karen is now a sports bettor.

This will be good.

Is there a band wagon she DOESN'T try to jump on?

Can't wait for all of her picks and sage explanations in their support.



__________________________________________________ ____________________________________________


"Mammie, go gets me 'dat copy o' "Sport Ill-strated," I and I jus' found at de bus stop. I and I needs to figure out hows to bet all de upcoming games."

Her long suffering mother stopped scrubbing the linoleum, took off her rubber gloves, swallowed a big belt of fortified wine and handed Karen the magazine.

"Now 'dat I and I is a sports gamblin' expert I and I is gonna win big."

Mammie let fly a stealthy toot of uncertainly bordering on disagreement.

"Chile, why is you all a sudden sayin' you knows jack shit 'bout sports? You is no athlete and has never watched sports on TV: fo' you it all be about scamming fools online, eatin' chicken and shittin' de flo'. "

"Shut yo' mouf, mammie...you knows I and I has a condition 'dat causes me to shit de flo."

Once again mammie regretted having shared the advice with Karen which the Magic Eight Ball presented when asked long ago why she shit de flo,' but that was urine under the bridge.

"Where is you gwine get de money to makes dese sport bets? You be broke as a joke."

"I and I reached out to my casino friends for money, dey always comes thru, jus' you wait and see."

Mammie took another deep pull from the bottle and got back to scrubbing, knowing in her heart that like always, her daughter's latest endeavor would once again blow up in her face.

And they chastised me for attempting to get her involved with online +EV.

[accountinquestion]

Karen is now a sports bettor.

This will be good.

Is there a band wagon she DOESN'T try to jump on?

Can't wait for all of her picks and sage explanations in their support.



__________________________________________________ ____________________________________________


"Mammie, go gets me 'dat copy o' "Sport Ill-strated," I and I jus' found at de bus stop. I and I needs to figure out hows to bet all de upcoming games."

Her long suffering mother stopped scrubbing the linoleum, took off her rubber gloves, swallowed a big belt of fortified wine and handed Karen the magazine.

"Now 'dat I and I is a sports gamblin' expert I and I is gonna win big."

Mammie let fly a stealthy toot of uncertainly bordering on disagreement.

"Chile, why is you all a sudden sayin' you knows jack shit 'bout sports? You is no athlete and has never watched sports on TV: fo' you it all be about scamming fools online, eatin' chicken and shittin' de flo'. "

"Shut yo' mouf, mammie...you knows I and I has a condition 'dat causes me to shit de flo."

Once again mammie regretted having shared the advice with Karen which the Magic Eight Ball presented when asked long ago why she shit de flo,' but that was urine under the bridge.

"Where is you gwine get de money to makes dese sport bets? You be broke as a joke."

"I and I reached out to my casino friends for money, dey always comes thru, jus' you wait and see."

Mammie took another deep pull from the bottle and got back to scrubbing, knowing in her heart that like always, her daughter's latest endeavor would once again blow up in her face.

And they chastised me for attempting to get her involved with online +EV.

I'll be honest I don't even know what she is seeing. Cash out buttons on bets? Can you abort bets and give up juice somehow? Or is she talking about the payout? Which if the latter (and what makes the most sense) she has it completely backwards.

Tasha - if the bet pays less than the wager that means that it has a higher chance of winning. Thats why you are paid less. If it pays more than your bet (along with the original bet) then that means it was a less than 50% chance. A one in 4 chance of winning will pay you roughly 3x your bet (plus original bet). If you have a 3 in 4 chance of winning then it will pay you far less than your original bet.

I think it would be theoretically possible to teach her some advantage slots that have hard distinct entry points. I don't think you'd ever have any luck if she had to user her judgement because she'd play everything.

Honestly though, I think with sports betting and the time delays she has a better chance of having $$ in her pocket than slots playing.

I'm so often amazed at how bad people are with numbers even though they seem averagely smart in their writings. I once defended her intelligence but lol I don't think I would again.

[MisterV]

The fact you have it in for Tasha so bad yet want to cuddle up with Kewl pretty much locks down the fact you have some latent homo-based concern for Kewl.

Fantasize and project much, do ya, boyo?

Not that there's anything really wrong with that...

just sayin'

[accountinquestion]

The fact you have it in for Tasha so bad yet want to cuddle up with Kewl pretty much locks down the fact you have some latent homo-based concern for Kewl.

Fantasize and project much, do ya, boyo?

Not that there's anything really wrong with that...

just sayin'

It is beyond comical you think this is a fitting insult. But yea lol keep it up with Tasha. I used to see you as background noise but your personality blazed out before Singer et al got up for the sunshine. You somehow managed to be top notch annoying. I'm sure you'll tell yourself got 'em. Whatever.

[MisterV]

It wasn't an insult, it was a valid question.

You strike me as a bit fem.

Whatever, read my shit or block / ignore it, I could give a flying fuck: I write for myself primarily and if anyone else likes it, great; if not, that's great too.

For forty years I earned a good living from my words: now they're for entertainment / private amusement only.

BTW, when I was a practicing attorney I also used other people and their lives as my source material.

[accountinquestion]

It wasn't an insult, it was a valid question.

You strike me as a bit fem.

Whatever, read my shit or block / ignore it, I could give a flying fuck: I write for myself primarily and if anyone else likes it, great; if not, that's great too.

For forty years I earned a good living from my words: now they're for entertainment / private amusement only.

BTW, when I was a practicing attorney I also used other people and their lives as my source material.

Yea I'm fem clearly. I'm just trying to buddy up to you so you'll tell me the texture of kewls ballsack.

[MDawg]

The word on the street is that UNKewlJ is recuperating from yet another black eyed bout with an unhappy John.

[jdaewoo]

Why isn't this retard making up more fake baccarat sessions?

[kewlJ]

Why isn't this retard making up more fake baccarat sessions?

He did make up more if his baccarat fake wins. Claims he won 42k yesterday, and of course the casinos love him for it.

It is this simple. If this guy will lie about the nonsense he just did, then why would anyone believe any of his retarded fantasy claims.

Oh wait...no one does! No one even responds to his bullshit claims anymore.

[MDawg]

Kew, stop being so pathetic. You spend hours trying to convince everyone that this or that AP believes your nonsense. Axel said something like you're a work of fiction; mickey doesn't really care how high you hang yourself; Dan said you have a history of hoaxes, that you’re the queen of the liars, and you best hope he doesn't chime in again after your pitiful performance the past few days; we've seen max obliterate you rather easily; and jbjb seems to have run out of one-liners to describe the fiasco he's been watching. The lawyers here see you as mashed potatoes gone sour; and in case you don't know, wizard hasn't changed his mind about you. He actually was ahead of us when it comes to you--the Pathological Compulsive Liar.

[Keystone]

The fact you have it in for Tasha so bad yet want to cuddle up with Kewl pretty much locks down the fact you have some latent homo-based concern for Kewl.

Fantasize and project much, do ya, boyo?

Not that there's anything really wrong with that...

just sayin'

It is beyond comical you think this is a fitting insult. But yea lol keep it up with Tasha. I used to see you as background noise but your personality blazed out before Singer et al got up for the sunshine. You somehow managed to be top notch annoying. I'm sure you'll tell yourself got 'em. Whatever.

Great, now we have 2 clowns on this same thread(Mcocksucker and Accunt) trying to get into Nathan/Tasha`s pants

[mickeycrimm]

So Team A with a power rating of 10 is playing Team B with a power rating of 2.5. That's a 7.5 point differential. The posted spread on the game is 4.5. A 3 point difference between his line and the posted line. He says the 3 points difference is a 14% difference and gives a mathematical formula for it.

He uses a star system for bet sizing:
0.5 star = 5.5%
1.0 star = 7.%
1.5 star = 9%
2.0 stars = 11%
2.5 stars = 13%
3.0 stars = 15%.

The bigger the point differential between his line and the books line the bigger the percentage difference, consequently the more stars the bet gets.

He sizes his bets based on the number of stars. He won't bet anything less than 0.5 stars/5.5%. The more stars the more he will bet on a game.

So in the situation between Team A and Team B above, Walter's model says Team A should be favored by 7.5 points and the posted spread is -4.5. A 3 point difference. Walters put that at a 14% edge. So how did he determine that 14% edge?

There is a chart in his book, which I will post below. It shows how often a favorite will win by exactly the number of points it was favored by. Stats going back to 1974 were collected. But he warned that numbers can change over time, especially with rules changes.

So the posted line is -4.5 and Walters' line is -7.5.

The chart shows:

a team favored by 5 will win by exactly 5 points 3% of the time.
a team favored by 6 will win by exactly 6 points 5% of the time.
a team favored by 7 will win by exactly 7 points 6% of the time.

That totals to 14%. Since his model puts the line at -7.5 he has the -5,-6 and -7 covered.

[Tasha]

Also it helps to regularly follow the Player of your choice. Usually the Longshot is who you don't want to bet and you want to bet the Favorite, but know your Player. For example, I chose a Player that I know often wins but this time he was the LONGSHOT. I chose him and he WON.

[Don Perignom]

Also it helps to regularly follow the Player of your choice. Usually the Longshot is who you don't want to bet and you want to bet the Favorite, but know your Player. For example, I chose a Player that I know often wins but this time he was the LONGSHOT. I chose him and he WON.

It's nice that your state has the one designated sportsbook. I think I have 9 registrations here in Nevada, so there's always a risk that I'll bet a worse line than I could have gotten somewhere else.

I have an offshore progress report:

So far so good. I feel very conspicuous, but everyone has paid me and I haven't detected any obvious heat. I'm just lacking in options, as I only feel confident with a few of the operators, and I fear scrutiny for playing multiple books in the same group (which I may not be aware of).

My favorite so far is BetOnline. Good odds, functional web site, lots of promos, contests and loyalty benefits. Instant payouts. Bonuses are probably not so good. I'm not even sure they're doing reloads, and the freeplay is very restrictive. You can only bet up to +150, and only on designated sports selections.

Somebody mentioned heat from Just Bet. I've played a lot at Bookmaker in the same group. I've run hot and beat them for several thousand, but they cashed me out without complaint. Just about a 30-minute wait for review. Bookmaker's website is less dazzling than BetOnline, but there's a loyalty program and reloads. Freeplay usage is basically unrestricted iirc -- you're allowed to bet longshots.

I'm not impressed with Bet US.

I have my first bonus in progress now at MyBookie. Site has all the features, but I find the lines are pretty much fully juiced.

[AxelWolf]

Also it helps to regularly follow the Player of your choice. Usually the Longshot is who you don't want to bet and you want to bet the Favorite, but know your Player. For example, I chose a Player that I know often wins but this time he was the LONGSHOT. I chose him and he WON.

It's nice that your state has the one designated sportsbook. I think I have 9 registrations here in Nevada, so there's always a risk that I'll bet a worse line than I could have gotten somewhere else.

I have an offshore progress report:

So far so good. I feel very conspicuous, but everyone has paid me and I haven't detected any obvious heat. I'm just lacking in options, as I only feel confident with a few of the operators, and I fear scrutiny for playing multiple books in the same group (which I may not be aware of).

My favorite so far is BetOnline. Good odds, functional web site, lots of promos, contests and loyalty benefits. Instant payouts. Bonuses are probably not so good. I'm not even sure they're doing reloads, and the freeplay is very restrictive. You can only bet up to +150, and only on designated sports selections.

Somebody mentioned heat from Just Bet. I've played a lot at Bookmaker in the same group. I've run hot and beat them for several thousand, but they cashed me out without complaint. Just about a 30-minute wait for review. Bookmaker's website is less dazzling than BetOnline, but there's a loyalty program and reloads. Freeplay usage is basically unrestricted iirc -- you're allowed to bet longshots.

I'm not impressed with Bet US.

I have my first bonus in progress now at MyBookie. Site has all the features, but I find the lines are pretty much fully juiced.

I have an account at a top-five offshore Sportsbook that I let get up to tens of thousands of dollars recently.

Over the years in the past Cashing Out has only taken 1 to 5 days depending on if it was a weekend or not.

I want to mention that I rolled over much, much more than the required amount for the bonus.



I recently started out cashing out my weekly limit and everything was okay the first few times I cashed out, but as I kept cashing out the time in between cashouts got longer and longer, almost 2 weeks for one cashout. Now suddenly they have limited my cashout limits by about 65%.

[Don Perignom]

I want to mention that I rolled over much, much more than the required amount for the bonus.

I recently started out cashing out my weekly limit and everything was okay the first few times I cashed out, but as I kept cashing out the time in between cashouts got longer and longer, almost 2 weeks for one cashout. Now suddenly they have limited my cashout limits by about 65%.

This is my favorite form of gambling because (the way I do it) it's very low-stress, without any of the annoyances encountered in a b&m sportsbook or casino. Probably not realistic, but I would like to peacefully coexist with the sportsbooks to ensure durable relationships. I'm trying to employ heavy cover, but I don't know what's effective. I give double the rollover if not more. I mostly avoid certain types of bets that may be associated with smart players. I'm cautious about exploiting sudden line movements. I never bet outright mistakes. Ultimately though, I can't hide my account balance.

[AxelWolf]

I want to mention that I rolled over much, much more than the required amount for the bonus.

I recently started out cashing out my weekly limit and everything was okay the first few times I cashed out, but as I kept cashing out the time in between cashouts got longer and longer, almost 2 weeks for one cashout. Now suddenly they have limited my cashout limits by about 65%.

This is my favorite form of gambling because (the way I do it) it's very low-stress, without any of the annoyances encountered in a b&m sportsbook or casino. Probably not realistic, but I would like to peacefully coexist with the sportsbooks to ensure durable relationships. I'm trying to employ heavy cover, but I don't know what's effective. I give double the rollover if not more. I mostly avoid certain types of bets that may be associated with smart players. I'm cautious about exploiting sudden line movements. I never bet outright mistakes. Ultimately though, I can't hide my account balance.

Here is some email content I have gotten from a top online sports book manager so you can see what they are thinking a bit when it comes to this stuff.
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"Keep in mind that we are a book for recreational players. Recreational players are welcome to play and win and cash out as much as they want. However, we are not interested in bonusing professional gamblers.

Being a professional gambler has nothing to do with winning or losing. It has to do with what you are playing. If you are playing all line moves and stale lines in obscure sports with week lines, we will pay you but not bonus your transactions.



I get that being from Vegas does make you a pro gambler. But most of our professional gamblers come in from Vegas and they generally come in for a couple to a few thousand dollars and always in crypto. So when I see those 3 things I like to be upfront."
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FYI they are worse than me when it comes to writing, LOL.
I will no longer play there due to those comments.

[tableplay]

More details about Richard's move into Sports Betting: