Professional Sportsbetting

[kewlJ]

I will say this much. Thank God mickeycrimm is around and speaks redietz-ese, otherwise I wouldn't even know what redietz is ranting about.

As it turns out redietz is just standing on his soapbox, screaming at the top of his lungs that he is the only person that can make money at sports betting, not really reading, nor understanding what someone else is doing with the bonus rollover-play through and volume betting.


It is just an extension of what has been playing out for a while now. Redietz, old school, thinks his way is the only way and refuses to accept that there are APs that can and are making money in sports betting a different way, using the bonuses as +EV, rather than actually picking more winners than losers.

[MDawg]

I will say this much...I

am a

[accountinquestion]

Redietz going on about middles. lol. Sure they're great but there is so much more to it.

Redietz clearly is not a professional gambler. If so, he would realize that there is a time element. I don't think middles are a strategy pursued by many. If you come across one then sure. Freeroll time! Great.... but that doesn't mean you'll come across them often on. He just doesn't get so much. Especially given the nature of bonus grinding which implies you are not keeping money on many sites. (which greatly enables the possibility of coming across a middle)

Either you enjoy what you are doing or you should strongly consider the time aspect. (hourly) Sitting around looking for middles for weeks to finish out the bonus is not a smart use of your time if you have other outs. In addition having to lock up money all over the place is not so great. Not really a strategy for winners.

You can be a slot vulture and have guaranteed profit on every play but you're going to be wasting a lot of time looking for them and lose out on overall profit. Anyway.. not going to go into analogies. If people can't see Redietz is a fool then I'm not going to be able to fix that.

And lets not get into the fact that he openly spouts gambling fallacies as the rational thing to do. lolz. Poor bastard. Not clueful enough to realize how clueless he is. A bad spot to be in life.....

Redietz, you poor bastard, good luck.

That being said I'm not a professional sports bettor or claim to know much about it. It appears I know enough to spot bullshit though.

[MaxPen]

Redietz going on about middles. lol. Sure they're great but there is so much more to it.

Redietz clearly is not a professional gambler. If so, he would realize that there is a time element. I don't think middles are a strategy pursued by many. If you come across one then sure. Freeroll time! Great.... but that doesn't mean you'll come across them often on. He just doesn't get so much. Especially given the nature of bonus grinding which implies you are not keeping money on many sites. (which greatly enables the possibility of coming across a middle)

Either you enjoy what you are doing or you should strongly consider the time aspect. (hourly) Sitting around looking for middles for weeks to finish out the bonus is not a smart use of your time if you have other outs. In addition having to lock up money all over the place is not so great. Not really a strategy for winners.

You can be a slot vulture and have guaranteed profit on every play but you're going to be wasting a lot of time looking for them and lose out on overall profit. Anyway.. not going to go into analogies. If people can't see Redietz is a fool then I'm not going to be able to fix that.

And lets not get into the fact that he openly spouts gambling fallacies as the rational thing to do. lolz. Poor bastard. Not clueful enough to realize how clueless he is. A bad spot to be in life.....

Redietz, you poor bastard, good luck.

That being said I'm not a professional sports bettor or claim to know much about it. It appears I know enough to spot bullshit though.

Now you know the reason dude is living in a shack in bumfuck Tennessee and can't pay his tax bill....RIP

[accountinquestion]

Redietz going on about middles. lol. Sure they're great but there is so much more to it.

Redietz clearly is not a professional gambler. If so, he would realize that there is a time element. I don't think middles are a strategy pursued by many. If you come across one then sure. Freeroll time! Great.... but that doesn't mean you'll come across them often on. He just doesn't get so much. Especially given the nature of bonus grinding which implies you are not keeping money on many sites. (which greatly enables the possibility of coming across a middle)

Either you enjoy what you are doing or you should strongly consider the time aspect. (hourly) Sitting around looking for middles for weeks to finish out the bonus is not a smart use of your time if you have other outs. In addition having to lock up money all over the place is not so great. Not really a strategy for winners.

You can be a slot vulture and have guaranteed profit on every play but you're going to be wasting a lot of time looking for them and lose out on overall profit. Anyway.. not going to go into analogies. If people can't see Redietz is a fool then I'm not going to be able to fix that.

And lets not get into the fact that he openly spouts gambling fallacies as the rational thing to do. lolz. Poor bastard. Not clueful enough to realize how clueless he is. A bad spot to be in life.....

Redietz, you poor bastard, good luck.

That being said I'm not a professional sports bettor or claim to know much about it. It appears I know enough to spot bullshit though.

Now you know the reason dude is living in a shack in bumfuck Tennessee and can't pay his tax bill....RIP

lmao sitting around scratching his balls drinking his folger's that he brewed the 2nd time off the same grounds.. looking for his next middle... "maybe next week".

[kewlJ]

Guys that think they are "middleing" experts think they can read how the public will bet. If they see a line on Monday Morning that they think the public is going to bet heavy on one side moving the line, they immediately bet it and wait for that line change.

Now the line has to change a decent amount for middling to work. Moving a half point or even a point doesn't create much of a middling opportunity. So if it ends up the line doesn't move or doesn't move as much as they thought it would, then they have just blindly bet on one side @ -EV (the vig). So if you are doing this middling thing you better be right about what you think the public is going to bet.

Of all the sports betting strategies, I think this is a tough one. Real slim, narrow edge if you are right, more often than not.

[accountinquestion]

Guys that think they are "middleing" experts think they can read how the public will bet. If they see a line on Monday Morning that they think the public is going to bet heavy on one side moving the line, they immediately bet it and wait for that line change.

Now the line has to change a decent amount for middling to work. Moving a half point or even a point doesn't create much of a middling opportunity. So if it ends up the line doesn't move or doesn't move as much as they thought it would, then they have just blindly bet on one side @ -EV (the vig). So if you are doing this middling thing you better be right about what you think the public is going to bet.

Of all the sports betting strategies, I think this is a tough one. Real slim, narrow edge if you are right, more often than not.

Since you read forums as much as anyone on here - where is data that shows the EV of various middles?

[Half Smoke]

.
at WoV I started a new tracking - new for me

the public consensus pick of 65% or greater - it's shown at the link and also at covers.com

for this NFL season these picks are currently 20-7 and went 5-2 last week

unfortunately, it's too difficult to locate the data to go back to prior years to really know if it's profitable or if this year's results are just chance

if I had to guess I would guess that it is profitable but by nowhere near what the record currently is

in horse racing it is well known that the favorite - the public pick - will outperform in r.o.i. all of the other horses in any long tracking and will outperform the longshots by a lot

the huge takeout in racing means that betting the fave on every play will still cause a sizeable loss

something like - betting to win on the fave every time the bettor would lose somewhere about 12% of all the money wagered whereas the track takeout on win bets averages about 17%

it is also well known that the lower the odds the less the fave will lose - all faves bet down to 4/5 will lose considerably less than all faves priced at 5/2

I believe these facts re racing give some clue to this

I will continue to track this season on WoV




https://www.wunderdog.com/nfl/public...blic-consensus

[mickeycrimm]

Guys that think they are "middleing" experts think they can read how the public will bet. If they see a line on Monday Morning that they think the public is going to bet heavy on one side moving the line, they immediately bet it and wait for that line change.

Now the line has to change a decent amount for middling to work. Moving a half point or even a point doesn't create much of a middling opportunity. So if it ends up the line doesn't move or doesn't move as much as they thought it would, then they have just blindly bet on one side @ -EV (the vig). So if you are doing this middling thing you better be right about what you think the public is going to bet.

Of all the sports betting strategies, I think this is a tough one. Real slim, narrow edge if you are right, more often than not.

Since you read forums as much as anyone on here - where is data that shows the EV of various middles?

I think it was half smoke that put this chart up a while back. You can use the chart to calculate EV on middles.

[Ozzy]

Guys that think they are "middleing" experts think they can read how the public will bet. If they see a line on Monday Morning that they think the public is going to bet heavy on one side moving the line, they immediately bet it and wait for that line change.

Now the line has to change a decent amount for middling to work. Moving a half point or even a point doesn't create much of a middling opportunity. So if it ends up the line doesn't move or doesn't move as much as they thought it would, then they have just blindly bet on one side @ -EV (the vig). So if you are doing this middling thing you better be right about what you think the public is going to bet.

Of all the sports betting strategies, I think this is a tough one. Real slim, narrow edge if you are right, more often than not.

Since you read forums as much as anyone on here - where is data that shows the EV of various middles?

Wrong AIQ. He NEVER reads PFA, has NEVER had an account there( not in question) and has NO CLUE who Chrissy Kyle Prescott Mitchell is. He ALWAYS tells the truth. How dare you say that about the UNKOOL1!!

[AxelWolf]

Redietz going on about middles. lol. Sure they're great but there is so much more to it.

Redietz clearly is not a professional gambler. If so, he would realize that there is a time element. I don't think middles are a strategy pursued by many. If you come across one then sure. Freeroll time! Great.... but that doesn't mean you'll come across them often on. He just doesn't get so much. Especially given the nature of bonus grinding which implies you are not keeping money on many sites. (which greatly enables the possibility of coming across a middle)

Either you enjoy what you are doing or you should strongly consider the time aspect. (hourly) Sitting around looking for middles for weeks to finish out the bonus is not a smart use of your time if you have other outs. In addition having to lock up money all over the place is not so great. Not really a strategy for winners.

You can be a slot vulture and have guaranteed profit on every play but you're going to be wasting a lot of time looking for them and lose out on overall profit. Anyway.. not going to go into analogies. If people can't see Redietz is a fool then I'm not going to be able to fix that.

And lets not get into the fact that he openly spouts gambling fallacies as the rational thing to do. lolz. Poor bastard. Not clueful enough to realize how clueless he is. A bad spot to be in life.....

Redietz, you poor bastard, good luck.

That being said I'm not a professional sports bettor or claim to know much about it. It appears I know enough to spot bullshit though.

I rarely ever go to that site so im not sure what he is getting on about, but From what I gathered redietz was preaching about how middling was not a viable option to make decent money is sports. I can't remember exactly what he said but he basically called out/put down everything but handicapping.

[kewlJ]

I rarely ever go to that site so im not sure what he is getting on about, but From what I gathered redietz was preaching about how middling was not a viable option to make decent money is sports. I can't remember exactly what he said but he basically called out/put down everything but handicapping

I think I can recap what is going on over there with redietz the past few days. As everyone knows I am not good with brevity and I don't think this can be brief, but I will try.

This particular redietz freakout is about me. For years I have done a little sports betting for entertainment and at a small cost of a couple thousand a year betting games and watching. Typical ploppy sports betting shit. With all the talk of sports betting and particularly inspired by Axelwolf saying how anybody could make money sports betting taking advantages of the online bonus, I decided to give it a shot. Axelwolf, I don't believe is a big sports guy. He said something about it doesn't really matter how you pick your games, you could flip a coin and still make money (because it is really all about the bonus money).

So with a bit of "extra money" on my hands this year after a settlement, I deposited money into 4 different sportsbooks online. I asked around, and picked sportsbooks that some people use and have confidence in, including one that I have been using for years. End result was 21k in bonus money with about 100k in rollover requirements.

Next how to pick my games. I decided rather than a coin flip or my on handicapping talents which has proven to be lacking, I would employ some of the techniques being talked about in the past 6 months by mickey and others. These were trend type things from years past that seem to do well every year. At the top of that list was a play that Half Smoke had mentions, betting NFL underdogs (with points) the first 2 weeks of the season. I think results were this had been a winner for 5 years. Well each of the first 2 weeks went 10-6 this year so that was a +8 start.

Second method of picking I was going to use was following Dan Druff's NFL picks. Druff was fantastic in the NFL last years, and I don't know how he makes his picks exactly but he seems to do well. So Druff went 6-1 over the first couple weeks to start the NFL season. So this made me +13 in picks for the first couple weeks.

The 3rd angle I wanted to employ, was something I saw on one of the handicapping TV shows. New college rules of a running clock except the last 2 minutes of halves, was supposed to shorten the games by about 6 plays. Over unders would be adjusted accordingly, but several guys on this show seemed to think the effect would be more that what was projected at least initially. So I decided to bet the under on all competitive college football games the first few weeks. Competitive means, throwing out games that were one of the majors conference teams against some non-major conference team, where scores are often 70-10. lets call these "the cupcake games".

So for the first two weeks this angle won both weeks for another +9. Total 22 games over .500. Add in a few of my own picks picking underdogs getting 3.5 and 7.5 points, another angle and I was 25 games over .500 after 2 weeks. When I posted this redietz freaked out, screaming no one could be 25 games over .500. I don't think redietz even knew the volume of wagering I was doing. It isn't like I was 27-2 or something I was 56-31.

I tried to explain to redietz that I had been very fortunate in the angles I was playing all happened to do well those first 2 weeks. It isn't like I am some great handicapper. But he continued to freak out. He seems to have this bug up his ass that AP's can't and shouldn't be making money at sports betting and resents anyone who is.

So the middling comments came from reditz saying if I was really +25 after two weeks (which went down to almost 0 over the next 3 weeks), I should have preserved that +25 by middleing. I know about middleing strategies but have never been real impressed. You have to wait around all week constantly watching lines for a little movement and frankly, that didn't interest me, nor did I want to invest my time like that. This after all was a supplemental thing for me. I was and am still just trying to get through my rollover requirements, as close to .500 or above if possible.

But in the end, it all comes back to redietz thinks he is some great sports handicapper and no one can make money, at sports but him, when the fact is there are all kinds of ways to make money with the bonuses and all today. Like Axelwolf said, you don't even have to know or follow sports to make money using the bonuses.

So that is what the past few days and this particular freak out by redietz have been about.

[coach belly]

So the middling comments came from reditz saying if I was really +25 after two weeks (which went down to almost 0 over the next 3 weeks), I should have preserved that +25 by middleing.

What's this comment (below) all about?

I never here, and have never anywhere, suggested middles shooting for NFL sides.

[smurgerburger]

Using this binomial distribution calculator -

https://homepage.divms.uiowa.edu/~mb...pplets/bin.htm

... and the very optimistic assumption of .55 win probability I get a 4.8% chance of going 56-31 or better in 87 games.

Using .5 as the win probability I get .048% (that seems a bit extreme though?).

So given the background probability of fraudulence at approximately 100%, I'm going to have to reluctantly decide victory in favor of redietz.

[kewlJ]

So given the background probability of fraudulence at approximately 100%, I'm going to have to reluctantly decide victory in favor of redietz.

Except it is documented dipshit, I posted what I was wagering before and as i was going through this period including conversations with multiple people both public and private about what we were betting via the different angles. You are now as trolly as the likes of Mdawg, coach belly, Singer, ect.

[accountinquestion]

So given the background probability of fraudulence at approximately 100%, I'm going to have to reluctantly decide victory in favor of redietz.

Except it is documented dipshit, I posted what I was wagering before and as i was going through this period including conversations with multiple people both public and private about what we were betting via the different angles. You are now as trolly as the likes of Mdawg, coach belly, Singer, ect.

FraudJ is GOAT !

KewlJ, where did you post these 87 (?) bets before game time?

[smurgerburger]

So given the background probability of fraudulence at approximately 100%, I'm going to have to reluctantly decide victory in favor of redietz.

Except it is documented dipshit, I posted what I was wagering before and as i was going through this period including conversations with multiple people both public and private about what we were betting via the different angles. You are now as trolly as the likes of Mdawg, coach belly, Singer, ect.

On the other hand, 100% fraudulence is a lot of fraudulence.

[kewlJ]

On the other hand, 100% fraudulence is a lot of fraudulence.

And you, a once reasonable member have become nothing but a lot of flatulence.

[accountinquestion]

This whole new sportsbetting/bonus grinding thing is pretty great if we didn't have to read Kewl's posts to know about it.

If kewl happened to be correct about Redietz's motivations it probably more sad than anything.

[accountinquestion]

So given the background probability of fraudulence at approximately 100%, I'm going to have to reluctantly decide victory in favor of redietz.

Except it is documented dipshit, I posted what I was wagering before and as i was going through this period including conversations with multiple people both public and private about what we were betting via the different angles. You are now as trolly as the likes of Mdawg, coach belly, Singer, ect.

KewlJ here is your chance to redeem yourself. Then we know you're using your "extra money" like you claim. Show us where it is documented. No big deal.. don't go into this "I don't gotta prove nuttin' sashaying about hand on hip bullshit. Just show us.