Professional Sportsbetting

[1Hit1der]

The very few of those things that I followed came down to questionable calls by the referees. The other thing is always to go with the team that Singer goes against. Ha. Tough to be sports bettor by teams.

[kewlJ]

Billy Walters makes his Super Bowl pick. Says it's KC and they should be 2 point favorites and not underdogs.

https://www.reviewjournal.com/sports...%80%94%20VIDEO

I came to the same conclusion earlier in the week.

Chiefs have the better defensive. (And the old adage is defense wins championships)

49ers have the better supporting cast offense.

Chiefs the better and proven QB.

Chiefs the better kicker by wide margin. These last 2 are huge.

When I add it all up I see the Chiefs as the favorite.

[kewlJ]

Mahomes can take over and win the game himself. Purdy can't.

Purdy has to play almost perfect and I don't think he will. I expect Jones will get pressure on him all day and Purdy will throw a couple picks, as he did against Baltimore's relentless pressure

[MDawg]

AxelWolf negates kewlJ sports betting:

I do find it hard to believe that a guy who's admittedly only given minimal action gets 21k in bonuses with only a 4.7 x rollover. No need to tell me you get better deals when negotiating with your account manager, I bet I told you that in the first place.

I have seen upwards of 20k+ losses and they are unwilling to give even 1k in deposit bonuses with less than a 10x rollover. Yet you, a small bettor managed to get 21k in bonuses with an average of 4.7 x wagering requirements. That's mostly unheard of today on any of the top 20 offshore joints. Obviously a complete big gambling degenerate might get something special.

The twenty-six most major UNKewl lies I can think of concern (1) his lie about Moses showing up at a condo he claimed he lived at, (2) a condo it turned out that he has no ownership in and does not even live in, where he can’t even get his story straight about what is and what is not allowed by the condo CCRs, and lies about “renting it out” AirBnB style, (3) his faking his own death, (4) lying about ever having been robbed, (5) the nonsense about MGM execs showing up at his apartment on Halloween to give him player records on someone who isn't even MDawg, (6) the backrooming lawsuit, (7) the lies about news stories being broadcast about the backrooming incident, lies about the fictional settlement related to the fabricated incident, (8) the lie about being doxxed, or ever having his name placed in any casino database, (9) the rigged shuffler, (10) $50. free play for $100K win on a slot progressive, (11) $50K multi hand VP hit, (12) winning a car, (13) the lie about never asking anyone else to prove anything, (14) the lie about knowing attorney Nersesian well or at all, and having him on "speed dial," (15) lies that made it clear that he has never filed taxes as a professional gambler, (16) fabricated sports bets, (17) lies about that he has calculated his exact "expected win" over a decade and a half period, (18) lies about ever playing blackjack other than red green chip action as cover for a sugar daddy hustle, (19) lying about how “many” APs know him, (20) lies about how “many” APs have offered to “hire him” for their blackjack teams, (21) lying and claiming that he has never told others how they should post and about what, (22) lying about never posting again about this or that or on this or that forum, (23) lying about why he was nuked from WOV, trying to imply that he left on his own accord, (24) lies about the "oily" surfboard, (25) lied about whether or not he was gay, (26) the lie about even having a dead "soul mate" which he recanted.

That rigged shuffler story, besides not making any sense, reaffirmed in my mind that this guy really doesn't play much table games, because I'd expect such nonsense from a recreational player, not a card counter.

And as usual, as he gets hemmed in, he is changing the story on some of these. Even renounced the existence of his "soul mate" claims he lied about him and his gay marriage too!

[Don Perignom]

Was this you?

Keep looking. There may be other possibilities with so many books pushing out so many prop bets.

Not me.

I don't have any active bonuses, so not really hunting hard for anything today. I placed a few bets several days ago. I'm arbed on Brock Purdy pass attempts. I bet both sides of the coin toss, but need TAILS for a small profit.

I looked at Wizard's prop computations, but stopped reading when I saw his data stopped at 2014.

I looked at the Montana state sportsbook website.

With the juice they are charging it's very difficult to find an off market line far enough off to squeeze out any value.

This is an example of why a monopoly is bad and the free market is better for consumers.

And that Montana site is so basic. I can't even find the NBA or NHL games.

You're no doubt correct about markets. It's interesting though that DraftKings and FanDuel have achieved such dominance in the US. In the states where they operate, they enjoy somewhere around 75% combined market share. I wonder how much of that was achieved through political influence over politicians and regulators.

[redietz]

Was this you?

Keep looking. There may be other possibilities with so many books pushing out so many prop bets.

Not me.

I don't have any active bonuses, so not really hunting hard for anything today. I placed a few bets several days ago. I'm arbed on Brock Purdy pass attempts. I bet both sides of the coin toss, but need TAILS for a small profit.

I looked at Wizard's prop computations, but stopped reading when I saw his data stopped at 2014.

I looked at the Montana state sportsbook website.

With the juice they are charging it's very difficult to find an off market line far enough off to squeeze out any value.

This is an example of why a monopoly is bad and the free market is better for consumers.

And that Montana site is so basic. I can't even find the NBA or NHL games.

You're no doubt correct about markets. It's interesting though that DraftKings and FanDuel have achieved such dominance in the US. In the states where they operate, they enjoy somewhere around 75% combined market share. I wonder how much of that was achieved through political influence over politicians and regulators.

Much of it was sheer advertising spend, especially on sports-only networks. If you want to look up the grimy underbelly of Draftkings and FanDuel, track down the Philadelphia Inquirer and New York Times exposes regarding these "two" companies.

The fact these companies don't currently have overlapping personnel is due to a court "agreement." Also the reason "single entry" options had to be offered by FanDuel.

Here's a quick intro.

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...-goes-bad.html

[1Hit1der]

Much of it was sheer advertising spend, especially on sports-only networks. If you want to look up the grimy underbelly of Draftkings and FanDuel, track down the Philadelphia Inquirer and New York Times exposes regarding these "two" companies.

The fact these companies don't currently have overlapping personnel is due to a court "agreement." Also the reason "single entry" options had to be offered by FanDuel.

Here's a quick intro.

https://theskepticalgambler.blogspot...-goes-bad.html

Too long, didn't read. Ha.

[mickeycrimm]

You're no doubt correct about markets. It's interesting though that DraftKings and FanDuel have achieved such dominance in the US. In the states where they operate, they enjoy somewhere around 75% combined market share. I wonder how much of that was achieved through political influence over politicians and regulators.

Real hard to find value in Montana but the FCS championship game was different. In the out of state books South Dakota State was -14 -110, but in Montana so much money was bet on the Griz that the line went to SDS -10.5 +120.

The bars in Montana have betting kiosks and a lot of people watch the games in the bars. So the Griz line got hammered way down.

[Don Perignom]

The fact these companies don't currently have overlapping personnel is due to a court "agreement." Also the reason "single entry" options had to be offered by FanDuel.

I see news headlines mentioning big campaign donations by the big two. The companies buy politicians to achieve and maintain legality for their areas of operation, but an important secondary objective is to shut out competition.

In today's action, Wizard is running an experiment backing every "under" and "no" bet. But he did it at the b&m, walking away with 170 paper tickets:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gamb.../2/#post917811

That's just a cry for help. Is there any reason it couldn't have been done through the app? He also could have shopped the lines. Rampart (South Point) is a good choice if you had to pick only one, but they don't have the best line on everything.

I'm still browsing. In another thread, Dan took Mahomes MVP +150 which seems inadequate to me. You need 40% probability. I would bet the NO, but so far I can only find -180.

Caesars has +115 on "no tie" (after the first score), but Wizard's prop calculator (with the 2014 data) says I need 118.

[cyberbabble]

Bet under/no might have been a little painful last year, Kansas City 38 - Philadelphia 35.

Nearly every tout and podcaster is saying this is a sharp strategy. When it's unanimous it may be time to go the other way.

[Don Perignom]

I bet both sides of the coin toss, but need TAILS for a small profit.

I lost a coin flip.

Nearly every tout and podcaster is saying this is a sharp strategy. When it's unanimous it may be time to go the other way.

Yes, you definitely need awareness of the statistically fair numbers.

[Don Perignom]

Bad day for the "scoreless quarter" NO bet.

[Don Perignom]

Now it's tails!

[Don Perignom]

[Don Perignom]

[1Hit1der]

Which further highlights the difference between a game, and, life.

One never has as long as one thinks, let alone any overtime.

[kewlJ]

I only had 2 wagers on the game. I didn't hit the Brock Prudy interception I was looking for. He did throw some shaky passes a few times while under pressure and a couple were tipped and deflected but landed harmlessly. Overall Purdy did OK.

I did hit my much bigger wager of Chiefs ML. Took 5 full quarters though and wasn't as easy as I thought it might be. But most things and wagers aren't.

We watched at a casino ballroom type deal. The sound was turned down during commercials so I didn't get the full brunt of them. But some looked down right stupid. It feels like they try to hard with that shit anymore.

[kewlJ]

I don't know why the winning QB is automatically MVP. Mahomes had a good game but not a great game. Though 4 quarters the Chiefs only scored 1 touchdown and some field goals. And he threw an interception.

Travis Kelsey had 9 catches for 93 yards, all but 1 catch for 1 yard in the second half when the Chiefs made their charge. Every big 3rd down or 2nd and long he made a play. What more can you ask of tight end?

[Don Perignom]

I don't know why the winning QB is automatically MVP. Mahomes had a good game but not a great game.

QBs have been winning somewhat more MVPs lately, but still the rate is only about 2-to-1 at best. It's 57% since the beginning.

I figured Mahomes was only 50% to have the winning team. Then he was already 2 for 2 on MVPs, so I thought there might be an impulse to spread it around to someone else. And the very obvious choice would be camera hog Travis Swift.

I was able to refrain from betting on any of the NOs, mainly because I couldn't find the odds I wanted.

[Don Perignom]

Wizard lost 12% on his prop bets, which was less disastrous than he feared considering overtime extended the game by 19%.

He PDF'd the full list of Rampart prop results:

https://wizardofodds.com/pdf/2062/su...art_graded.pdf

Which got me to wondering, if you hated money, what would be the worst EV bet you could make?

I think I found a suitable choice on the last page, where you could bet any point total for an individual team (choice of either 49ers or Chiefs). As it happened, the actual totals were somewhat unusual. The 22 for the 49ers paid 35/1 and 25 for the Chiefs paid 45/1.

But I would wager on a total of 4, for a 1000/1 potential jackpot.

Only one team has ever scored 4, and that was 100 years ago when nobody scored much of anything else.