Professional Sportsbetting

[MisterV]

What type car are YOU driving today? How wonderful does kew's life appear? How long YOU been happily married? How many houses have YOU bought for your children? Who has the resources to travel and do what WE do, among the little people? It's king of sickening to a bunch of gambling miscreants(especially the queer ones) isn't it....

You asked, I'll answer.

I am driving my '82 Volvo 244 Turbo to Chinook Winds after the game today: I rebuilt / restored and maintain it.

Ask Kew how he enjoys his life, I have zero clue on that one.

I'm on my second marriage:got hitched in '05 and we are getting along fine; I still get along well with my first wife.

I let my son live rent free in the house he grew up in: being "financially comfortable" I own it free and clear: he pays property taxes on it; the wife and I own and live in another home not too far away.

As for resources: My net worth is "north of one million..:" Up to you to speculate HOW far north as I ain't sayin;

I've little interest in travel as I am as happy as a clam here in the Pac NW; I "explore" and "visit" the world via the internet.

As always, thanks for asking, and enjoy the coming NFL season!

[kewlJ]

I'm watching Tom Brady's first ever broadcasting career game.

Get some rest V.

In addition to Rob's bitterness at any AP, playing and winning with an advantage, apparently our James Bond-esque, Rob, has some sort of school girl crush on Tom Brady. It was one thing when Brady was a player. Lots of guys admire sports superstar type players. But now Rob's crush is just an announcer. And one with a feminine, whiney voice, that you guys talk about. Maybe THAT is the attraction, eh Rob?

[kewlJ]

Biggest favorite if the day, Cincinnati (-7.5), lost out right at home. This means a lot of those survivor pools and contests picks are dead on week 1.

Also not crazy about this new kickoff rule. It makes the default starting position the 30 yard line. Used to be 20, then 25 and now 30. Should bump up scoring.

[MDawg]

AxelWolf already publicly and privately stated that he debunked all of UNKewlJ's fraudulent sports bets claims.

What’s crazy about all this is that any normal person would realize that his ever changing story and desperate attempts to put out fires is just confirming that his story is false, and making him look even worse, but a sociopathic liar can’t help himself, and keeps lying just to cover up other lies.

[accountinquestion]

KJ does have a point: how can we overllook the failure to pay property taxes?

How can we overlook Robert Singer filing chapter seven bankruptcy?

I'm sure there are "good reasons" for it, but regardless the action leaves a bit of a stigma.

It also provides fodder for personal attacks.

Funny stuff. Since youre stuck in the mid nineties, you forgot to mention how I was arrested for fighting in Turkmenistan and had to spend 4 days in one of the roughest shithole jails in the world.

Worked out well for me though What type car are YOU driving today? How wonderful does kew's life appear? How long YOU been happily married? How many houses have YOU bought for your children? Who has the resources to travel and do what WE do, among the little people? It's king of sickening to a bunch of gambling miscreants (especially the queer ones) isn't it....

I'm watching Tom Brady's first ever broadcasting career game.

Get some rest V.

I'd bet 80% of my net value that mister v made more in life than singer. Possibly more but I'm too old to go broke.

[Rob.Singer]

What type car are YOU driving today? How wonderful does kew's life appear? How long YOU been happily married? How many houses have YOU bought for your children? Who has the resources to travel and do what WE do, among the little people? It's king of sickening to a bunch of gambling miscreants(especially the queer ones) isn't it....

You asked, I'll answer.

I am driving my '82 Volvo 244 Turbo to Chinook Winds after the game today: I rebuilt / restored and maintain it.

Ask Kew how he enjoys his life, I have zero clue on that one.

I'm on my second marriage:got hitched in '05 and we are getting along fine; I still get along well with my first wife.

I let my son live rent free in the house he grew up in: being "financially comfortable" I own it free and clear: he pays property taxes on it; the wife and I own and live in another home not too far away.

As for resources: My net worth is "north of one million..:" Up to you to speculate HOW far north as I ain't sayin;

I've little interest in travel as I am as happy as a clam here in the Pac NW; I "explore" and "visit" the world via the internet.

As always, thanks for asking, and enjoy the coming NFL season!

The fact that you felt compelled to discuss it further makes it curiously interesting.

Anonymous computer warriors like yourself, AQ, jbjb etc. always build themselves up because they expect no one will look into their suspect lives. This "I'm an AP and I must PROTECT myself" is simply a cover for pathetic backgrounds.

The difference is, even when I do find out about any real names on these forums, I don't have the slightest interest in discovering anything other than the mostly dishonest personalities they present themselves as. Its neither here nor there to me, while to those who feel threatened by the accomplishments of people who are truly superior to them, discovering some imperfections is akin to a coping mechanism.

I already know no one here or on any other gaming-related forum has had anywhere near the interesting life I've had, few have as complete and decent a family, and the career & video poker successes I've attained would be very, very tough to match. As such, the little people serve no more or no less a purpose than as my personal entertainment.

In short....I think you get it--even though you don't want to. And you're not alone.

That we know.

[accountinquestion]

What type car are YOU driving today? How wonderful does kew's life appear? How long YOU been happily married? How many houses have YOU bought for your children? Who has the resources to travel and do what WE do, among the little people? It's king of sickening to a bunch of gambling miscreants(especially the queer ones) isn't it....

You asked, I'll answer.

I am driving my '82 Volvo 244 Turbo to Chinook Winds after the game today: I rebuilt / restored and maintain it.

Ask Kew how he enjoys his life, I have zero clue on that one.

I'm on my second marriage:got hitched in '05 and we are getting along fine; I still get along well with my first wife.

I let my son live rent free in the house he grew up in: being "financially comfortable" I own it free and clear: he pays property taxes on it; the wife and I own and live in another home not too far away.

As for resources: My net worth is "north of one million..:" Up to you to speculate HOW far north as I ain't sayin;

I've little interest in travel as I am as happy as a clam here in the Pac NW; I "explore" and "visit" the world via the internet.

As always, thanks for asking, and enjoy the coming NFL season!

The fact that you felt compelled to discuss it further makes it curiously interesting.

Anonymous computer warriors like yourself, AQ, jbjb etc. always build themselves up because they expect no one will look into their suspect lives. This "I'm an AP and I must PROTECT myself" is simply a cover for pathetic backgrounds.

The difference is, even when I do find out about any real names on these forums, I don't have the slightest interest in discovering anything other than the mostly dishonest personalities they present themselves as. Its neither here nor there to me, while to those who feel threatened by the accomplishments of people who are truly superior to them, discovering some imperfections is akin to a coping mechanism.

I already know no one here or on any other gaming-related forum has had anywhere near the interesting life I've had, few have as complete and decent a family, and the career & video poker successes I've attained would be very, very tough to match. As such, the little people serve no more or no less a purpose than as my personal entertainment.

In short....I think you get it--even though you don't want to. And you're not alone.

That we know.

I've said it many times. I'm not a pro AP. I have a small business. I haven't bragged about AP prowess outside of showing a picture of actual real life US american money, baby. Not some funny pic of fake $$. ( although you did seemingly buy a lot of fake $$) I'm not taking well known stories and inserting myself into them to try and make up for a life of degenerate.

I used to question whether Singer was serious but you realize yes - he is. He so wishes the above to be true. I've known my share of successful people and one thing they have in common is they don't need to pump their superiority over others. I have had faker friends. Fake it til you make it. Tell me something is easy then they say they can't do it within an hour and want to waste my time explaining why. But they're always quick to pump themselves up. Just like Singer.

Singer isn't a sharp guy. He doesn't get how transparent his shtick is. It would be actually sad if i didn't find him to be such a nasty person underneath it all. Anyway.. hope you have a nice week, Rob.

[kewlJ]

How are your trends plays doing today thus far?

I am sure you asked, knowing they were not winning yesterday as in previous years. That is fine, I will answer any way.

On the under totals for 1week only of season, I will say I am 7-8 with 1 game remaining. Although at 2 sportsbooks I am 7-7-1 with one game remaining. the game in question was the opening game Thursday night won 27-20 by KC. Had totals of 46.5 at most books, but 47 at 2 B & M books.

On the first 2 weeks underdogs plus points, what I call the Half Smoke play, I will say I am 6-8-1 with one game this week and a second weeks games remaining. But again, there was one game Denver +6 that was a push at most of my books, but a loss at 3 (I think, where the line was 5 or 5.5.

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Now 2 additional things I want to mention. 1) overtime games like last night's Detroit/Rams game. When you are getting 3.5 points or more (but less than 6), you are a big favorite to win. If your team wins the coin toss, probably a 90% favorite to win. If your team scores on opening possession, either field goal or TD you will win, and if your team doesn't score, the opponent only needs a FG to end the game, so if they get to the 20 or inside, they will just kick the field goal.

Now if you lose the coin flip, and the opponent doesn't score a td on first possession, you are back to the same scenario. The only real way you can lose is if the opponent wins the coin flip and drives the field and scores a TD ending the game....which happened last night. Yes there are other possibilities like a pick 6 or punt return, but for the most part, coin flip is huge if you are getting 3.5 points.

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Now Red, you are calling these two plays betting trends and dismissing them. Shackleford has data dating something like 17 years showing betting all underdog plus points, in ALL NFL games shows a very small win. Something like 1% or less. Would you call that a trend? 17 years all games? that is thousands of games? What about the data spanning decades that shows 3.5 and 7.5 key numbers. Is that a trend?

These things are data analytics spanning decades and thousands of games. It just so happens the first two weeks, which is part of that same larger underdog plus points data, shows a bigger return in the first two weeks. And I think everyone can figure out why.

Red, you just dismiss the analytic as "trends". You are like so many old dudes, that dismiss something they don't know. Ever heard there is more than one way to skin a cat Red? Anyway, I hope you do well, even though you are openly rooting against others who do things you don't know or understand. I hope you do well enough to pay your taxes this year.

[redietz]

You know, kewlJ, in whatever fictional LaLa land in which you reside, I understand paying this bill or that may mean something. In the United States, however, your credit rating is pretty much a full-scale analysis of your finances. Having said that, I'll bet my net worth that my credit score is higher than yours. LOL. Can't wait to hear the "card counter" pithy comeback to that challenge.

As far as trends go, have you ever actually read a couple issues of Playbook, now or from 25 years ago? Or picked up a Playbook magazine? Or read anything regarding Billy Walters? There have been programs running 24/7 for 20+ years analyzing every aspect of every sport.

You gotta realize that people with 100 times the money Shackleford has and significantly more math abilities and programming abilities have been applying themselves to beating sports betting for the last 40 years. And, for the most part, I've outperformed them in any actual tracking of ATS records. People have been doing what you're touting for decades, with more brains and resources devoted to the endeavor than anything you could possibly muster.

That's reality, dude. People can get real money down on sports betting, unlike patty cake blackjack betting. The best and the brightest, with serious financial resources, have been applying themselves to the task for a long, long time.

And I have to add this -- LOL. You would think, according to kewlJ, that people like Billy Walters would be recruiting Shackleford. Doesn't happen. Gee, I wonder why.

[kewlJ]

Red, you addressed nothing. As usual.

And then followed up with more of your "credit rating" pissing contest bullshit. And if it is not credit rating, it is IQ or Sat scores from 50 years ago. As soon as one of you retards goes to this nonsense, it is game over.

I don't give a shit about Billy Watters or McCusker or anyone else that you want to throw out there. I also am not trying to be a "professional sports bettor" (title of this thread). I am an AP. Advantage player. Right now and for the last year I am doing some sports betting at an advantage due to the bonuses I get. I don't need to win. I need to be close to even. And I am doing that and have been for a year. Sports betting is only part of my advantage play right now.

The 1st 2 weeks play looks strong to me, even with this first weeks results at 6-8-1 so far. Last year both weeks went 10-6. I am sorry if you or Billy Watters or McCusker or anyone else you are speaking for, without their permission disagrees.

[redietz]

Red, you addressed nothing. As usual.

And then followed up with more of your "credit rating" pissing contest bullshit. And if it is not credit rating, it is IQ or Sat scores from 50 years ago. As soon as one of you retards goes to this nonsense, it is game over.

LOL. So what does when I paid a particular tax have to with anything? You think that reflects badly on someone? Well, maybe, but not as badly as some moron coming back from the dead and assuming people should listen to him. I mean, c'mon. You're a joke. Nobody buys your story anymore. What are you even doing posting about gambling?

Do you understand that you know nothing? That everything you reference in terms of "17-year ATS records" is available and known to every person who spends a couple hours on this stuff?

See, you're falling right into what MDawg described. Some superficial bullshit trivia you read becomes your basis for knowing what you're allegedly talking about. And you expect people to buy your narrative.

You have some lunatic sense that you know what you're talking about, that you are privy to info that's rare, and that you have some workable idea of how to apply what you know or what the applications should be. You are like some third-grader arguing with college profs.

And MDawg, feel free to quote me. Hell, use my name and address and say, "This guy, a public gambling professional for 45 years, has this to say about the inestimable online kewlJ." Give folks my email. Anybody wants to talk kewlJ, I'm available for kewlJ discussions, birthday parties, and bar mitzvahs.

[The Boz]

I’m with RED on trends but unders and underdogs did in general had a slight advantage because of one reason. And that reason ties into overall sports betting in general and it involved the line.

Books have always based their numbers on getting as close to equal wagering as possible but they know in reality that’s not possible and there will be public bias. And that bias in general comes back to the betting public liking overs and favorites. And in many cases an extra point was added to the numbers to make up for that. If they are way off the sharps will let them know quickly. And that advantage for the Under/Underdog bettor has a slight advantage over time. It didn’t make Shack look any smarter, people like RED and I, along with every long term gambler knew it.

But I also wonder how much bias is left because of the influx of new bettors and the focus on props and parlays. The books have a huge edge over these idiots buying (not betting) $20 6 leg lottery tickets. Their focus is on the props because the suckers almost always bet the over on any offensive prop. They can inflate a guy 5 yards and the suckers will take it. A investigation into these numbers would show a higher occurrence of unders I believe and I’m sure there are a few out there exploiting them. The public isn’t betting individual games like they did and honestly if you do and win with many of the new books, they will cut you off or limit you to next to nothing. Whereas on the lines there is just too much “smart” money out there today that in my mind the line bias just isn’t there as much on totals.

That was a long way of saying I don’t see much, if any, of an advantage to betting every game like you are doing KJ on an old trend. It’s certainly your choice but it’s right up there with flipping a coin in 2024 to me. But it’s a good as anything if you are just churning bonuses, but that’s another topic.

[kewlJ]

That was a long way of saying I don’t see much, if any, of an advantage to betting every game like you are doing KJ on an old trend. It’s certainly your choice but it’s right up there with flipping a coin in 2024 to me. But it’s a good as anything if you are just churning bonuses, but that’s another topic.

In general I agree that trends mean nothing Boz. Take roulette. The last six spin being black, doesn't mean the next spin will be black any more than it means Red is due. It just means nothing.

That said, there is more to this than just trends. There are reasons why this makes sense. Starting with and very generally, the public bets favorites...in every sport. And the lines usually move that way. Therefore the underdogs are over-valued, even if slightly.

Second, this play, the Half smoke play is for the first 2 weeks of the season only. What are these lines even based on? What teams did last season? What players, some on new teams did last season? starting players don't even play preseason anymore, so it isn't based on what they have shown. And that is part of it right there. Defenses are generally ahead of offenses early in the year. It takes a while for offenses to jell, especially not having played preseason. And that means lower scoring games AND lower scoring games are more conducive to closer games where points come into play more often.

The Patriots game is a perfect example. If both these teams are what people expect, you are less likely to have that outcome....a 7+ point dog win like that. Cincinatti's offense clearly hadn't jelled yet. And why? In part because they hadn't even played together in the preseason. Preseason is a joke now. I don't know why they even play those games?

[kewlJ]

Now let me say this. I had more money than I was comfortable with on yesterday's games. A little over 60k over 10 sports books, 5 online and 5 B & M. 60 k is the total amount I have made grinding away at the sports book bonuses for a year. So, it doesn't make sense to have everything I have worked for a year riding on this weekend like I did. I over did it for my comfort level.

And I am probably going to do the same next week. It is an extension of the underdog plays which call it trends if you want, but decades of data have shown to be at least break even, if not slightly +EV. And with the bonuses, that is all I am after. If I can break even or close to it, I am going to win 60-80k (over the year) with the bonuses I get. Maybe that won't last forever. Maybe they will cut me off or cut down my bonuses to where it isn't profitable. One online book did. But until they all do, this is a +EV play and I am an advantage player.

add on: and guess what? There is another AP in this town, successful that everyone knows, including many of you, Axelwolf, sometimes on this forum, although not too much recently, that is doing exactly what I am doing these first two weeks. I think he said he bet $2200 on every underdog and points. And I am sure is disappointed as well as this first week ends. BUT he too knows it is +EV and I'll bet he bets again the second week.

[Half Smoke]

.
I was thinking about the pre-season
how could they even make a line on those games___________?_____________I don't even believe the teams really care much about winning those games
the best players if they play only play part of the games
wouldn't the dogs have to have an edge since they're getting points__________?
not much interest in betting the pre-season and I don't recall every reading anything about it
I just tracked this year's pre-season and the dogs went 31-17
I'm well aware that doesn't prove anything - but still - pretty interesting

.

[accountinquestion]

You know, kewlJ, in whatever fictional LaLa land in which you reside, I understand paying this bill or that may mean something. In the United States, however, your credit rating is pretty much a full-scale analysis of your finances. Having said that, I'll bet my net worth that my credit score is higher than yours. LOL. Can't wait to hear the "card counter" pithy comeback to that challenge.

As far as trends go, have you ever actually read a couple issues of Playbook, now or from 25 years ago? Or picked up a Playbook magazine? Or read anything regarding Billy Walters? There have been programs running 24/7 for 20+ years analyzing every aspect of every sport.

You gotta realize that people with 100 times the money Shackleford has and significantly more math abilities and programming abilities have been applying themselves to beating sports betting for the last 40 years. And, for the most part, I've outperformed them in any actual tracking of ATS records. People have been doing what you're touting for decades, with more brains and resources devoted to the endeavor than anything you could possibly muster.

That's reality, dude. People can get real money down on sports betting, unlike patty cake blackjack betting. The best and the brightest, with serious financial resources, have been applying themselves to the task for a long, long time.

And I have to add this -- LOL. You would think, according to kewlJ, that people like Billy Walters would be recruiting Shackleford. Doesn't happen. Gee, I wonder why.

The people worth 100x Shackleford are not going to be playing tournaments where the time involved is high and the expectation is a few hundred. So I cant begin to comprehend how you know your standing relative to them.

[Half Smoke]

.
I was thinking about the pre-season
how could they even make a line on those games___________?_____________I don't even believe the teams really care much about winning those games
the best players if they play only play part of the games
wouldn't the dogs have to have an edge since they're getting points__________?
not much interest in betting the pre-season and I don't recall every reading anything about it
I just tracked this year's pre-season and the dogs went 31-17
I'm well aware that doesn't prove anything - but still - pretty interesting

.

using covers.com I went back and tracked just under 300 pre-season games
covers doesn't have this data for every year but I was able to get 6 seasons
I tracked the dogs going 170-119_________winning at 58.8%___________about a 12% r.o.i.

.

[kewlJ]

Rob Singer's school girl crush, Tom Brady, has a commercial for tortitos where he is a male flight attendant.

Seems most appropriate.

[MisterV]

The fact that you felt compelled to discuss it further makes it curiously interesting. Anonymous computer warriors like yourself, AQ, jbjb etc. always build themselves up because they expect no one will look into their suspect lives. This "I'm an AP and I must PROTECT myself" is simply a cover for pathetic backgrounds.

I am not an AP, Robert, as you well know.

I retired after a forty year law practice.

Any lawyer who isn't financially comfortable at the time they retire either gave it all to charity, blew it on booze, broads and coke, or simply wasn't good at the job.

Whether you believe me is or little importance: you asked, I answered.

[mickeycrimm]

You know, kewlJ, in whatever fictional LaLa land in which you reside, I understand paying this bill or that may mean something. In the United States, however, your credit rating is pretty much a full-scale analysis of your finances. Having said that, I'll bet my net worth that my credit score is higher than yours. LOL. Can't wait to hear the "card counter" pithy comeback to that challenge.

As far as trends go, have you ever actually read a couple issues of Playbook, now or from 25 years ago? Or picked up a Playbook magazine? Or read anything regarding Billy Walters? There have been programs running 24/7 for 20+ years analyzing every aspect of every sport.

You gotta realize that people with 100 times the money Shackleford has and significantly more math abilities and programming abilities have been applying themselves to beating sports betting for the last 40 years. And, for the most part, I've outperformed them in any actual tracking of ATS records. People have been doing what you're touting for decades, with more brains and resources devoted to the endeavor than anything you could possibly muster.

That's reality, dude. People can get real money down on sports betting, unlike patty cake blackjack betting. The best and the brightest, with serious financial resources, have been applying themselves to the task for a long, long time.

And I have to add this -- LOL. You would think, according to kewlJ, that people like Billy Walters would be recruiting Shackleford. Doesn't happen. Gee, I wonder why.

Financial Adviser and syndicated talk show host, Dave Ramsey, does not have a credit rating. He doesn’t buy anything on credit. Don’t even have credit cards (he uses debit cards).

I once heard him ridicule a guy that bragged he had an 830 credit rating. Ramsey doesn’t like paying interest, period.

Redietz, would you like to bet your net worth that you are more wealthy than Ramsey?