Professional Sportsbetting

[mickeycrimm]

redietz will not answer any real questions on sportsbetting. So far all he is doing is belittleing and attacking people. One has to wonder why. It brings into question both his ability and integrity.

I think this sportsbetting issue deserves it's own thread instead of being discussed in the GWAE thread. So I'm moving the sportsbetting stuff to this thread starting with the two GWAE podcasts. Las Vegas is heavily involved in this issue so I think this is the appropriate place and it will get a wider audience.

Frank B. on GWAE

https://www.spreaker.com/user/7418966/sbowl2023

[mickeycrimm]

Spanky on GWAE:

[mickeycrimm]

Frank B talked about how some pros have moved to other states after sportsbetting was legalized in so many other jurisdictions. I have a friend that goes to Colorado for football season. I wondered why he was doing that. Frank said there is a lot more betting opportunities in these new jurisdictions.

[Rob.Singer]

Can you imagine redietz being a GWAE guest and telling Dancer and Gimpy that math has no place in successful sports bettors lives?

I'm sure the Tennessee taxman feels exactly the same......

[redietz]

I'll be more than happy to guest on GWAE and explain why the phrase "Expected Value" is inappropriate for sports betting purposes. I'll also be more than happy to explain why handicappers with documented decades-long records and reputations among managers of sports books are more credible than cute anonymous nicknames. And I'll be amenable to pulling rank on the LVA sports betting luminaries, with the exception of Fezzik, who is one of the best contest players of all time, but who has run into some harsh realities in the hands-on gambling world. In fact, I can wax eloquent regarding how Fezzik fared helming a Las Vegas cartel, the consequences, and how his predecessors had fared.

I can also mention some of Billy Walters' tricks of the trade. And who were the best of the best in sports handicapping decade by decade in Las Vegas. Also, how I noticed Lefty Rosenthal when he visited the Stardust. And, years later, how I almost ruined a scene in the movie Casino.

Just some tidbits for the GWAE crowd. LOL.

And mickey, for the record, I'm up to $1188.38 in Loyalty Dollars at NorthBet. Use that math wizardry of yours and tell the folks what that means.

[mickeycrimm]

I'll be more than happy to guest on GWAE and explain why the phrase "Expected Value" is inappropriate for sports betting purposes. I'll also be more than happy to explain why handicappers with documented decades-long records and reputations among managers of sports books are more credible than cute anonymous nicknames. And I'll be amenable to pulling rank on the LVA sports betting luminaries, with the exception of Fezzik, who is one of the best contest players of all time, but who has run into some harsh realities in the hands-on gambling world. In fact, I can wax eloquent regarding how Fezzik fared helming a Las Vegas cartel, the consequences, and how his predecessors had fared.

I can also mention some of Billy Walters' tricks of the trade. And who were the best of the best in sports handicapping decade by decade in Las Vegas. Also, how I noticed Lefty Rosenthal when he visited the Stardust. And, years later, how I almost ruined a scene in the movie Casino.

Just some tidbits for the GWAE crowd. LOL.

And mickey, for the record, I'm up to $1188.38 in Loyalty Dollars at NorthBet. Use that math wizardry of yours and tell the folks what that means.

Just fired off an email to Bob and Richard. I copied and pasted your post here to show them what you can talk about. We'll see what happens.

[mickeycrimm]

I'll be more than happy to guest on GWAE and explain why the phrase "Expected Value" is inappropriate for sports betting purposes. I'll also be more than happy to explain why handicappers with documented decades-long records and reputations among managers of sports books are more credible than cute anonymous nicknames. And I'll be amenable to pulling rank on the LVA sports betting luminaries, with the exception of Fezzik, who is one of the best contest players of all time, but who has run into some harsh realities in the hands-on gambling world. In fact, I can wax eloquent regarding how Fezzik fared helming a Las Vegas cartel, the consequences, and how his predecessors had fared.

I can also mention some of Billy Walters' tricks of the trade. And who were the best of the best in sports handicapping decade by decade in Las Vegas. Also, how I noticed Lefty Rosenthal when he visited the Stardust. And, years later, how I almost ruined a scene in the movie Casino.

Just some tidbits for the GWAE crowd. LOL.

And mickey, for the record, I'm up to $1188.38 in Loyalty Dollars at NorthBet. Use that math wizardry of yours and tell the folks what that means.

Hell, I have one spot where a cumulative 40K wager will get me 1K freeplay.

How fast does that loyalty dollar meter run? Do you even know? Any machine pro worth his salt knows what percentage he gets in benefits. How about you?

So tell us, what's the meter speed on them loyalty dollars?

[mickeycrimm]

I'll be more than happy to guest on GWAE and explain why the phrase "Expected Value" is inappropriate for sports betting purposes. I'll also be more than happy to explain why handicappers with documented decades-long records and reputations among managers of sports books are more credible than cute anonymous nicknames.

No doubt your remark about "cute anonymous nicknames" was about Spanky. I'm beginning to understand now. You really are monumentally ignorant about what is going on in the sports betting world. Spanky has a far bigger name in sports betting than you have ever had. You are not even close.

David Hill from The Ringer has been doing articles and podcasts on gamblers for years. 3 years ago he wrote an article called "Requiem for a Sports Bettor." I'll hang the link at the bottom but here are a few paragraphs from the article:

"Spanky decided he’d confront those industry leaders head-on in April at the Betting on Sports America conference at the Meadowlands Exposition Center.

During a panel titled 'Pioneering Spirit,' the CEOs of a number of new operators, including Joe Asher, the CEO of William Hill’s U.S. operations, talked about their vision for the future of the industry in the United States. Jon Kaplowitz, the head of interactive for Penn National Gaming, which is partnered with William Hill, was asked about their risk management strategy. He joked that his strategy was, 'Joe [Asher] with a baseball bat running the sharps out of our casino.'

During the Q&A, Spanky takes to the microphone, and Asher immediately drops his head as if he knows what is coming. Spanky asks, 'Jon, you mentioned Joe has a baseball bat trying to kick out sharps from the casino. I myself have personally been kicked out of all of your sportsbooks, as well as several of my colleagues, for the action being quote-unquote too sharp. And I was wondering if there was a possibility that you guys were going to practice effective risk management and instead of kicking out customers, to welcome all customers and having people, if they win, they’re still able to bet in your sportsbooks.'

After some uncomfortable snickers from the audience, and an answer from Kaplowitz about how he has to manage between giving customers a great experience and making a profit, Asher grumpily responds. “This whole idea of people getting kicked out for winning is so overblown in the media and is such a distortion of reality,' he says. 'The stuff you read out there on Twitter or that makes its way into some press articles is just completely fanciful.'

The exchange was devoid of fireworks, but across the conference people who weren’t at that panel were gossiping about what they heard about the exchange. Later that evening, one conference attendee tells me he heard Spanky threatened to go after Asher with a baseball bat. When I tell him what Spanky actually said, the man seems a little disappointed.

But Spanky’s presence at the conference did seem to make an impact. A CEO and a number of executives from companies who had banned Spanky approached him and told him they’d like to talk to him about how they could work something out. And other gamblers were patting him on the back and thanking him for taking a stand against the greedy corporations. Long gone were the days of bettors grousing about his steam play, of calling him a bottom feeder. Spanky had become the sharp player’s shop steward; a gambling folk hero."

Until I brought him up you had no clue who Spanky was. But you want to tell us you know everything about the sportsbetting world? Dude, you are embarrassing yourself.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...ycafMqdH2zY1Ph

[accountinquestion]

The only thing Redietz impresses me with is his level of delusion.

Redietz won't answer but maybe someone else can. Why are contests so important? The EV per contest can't be that high even if you are a great handicapper.

If Redietz is such a great contest player why does he never speak of cleaning up when fantasy sports was booming with new blood?

Redietz you should get on GWAE. I honestly believe you could get on the show and then you'd be one more step closer to being famous.

[mickeycrimm]

They may let redietz on GWAE just to hear some history. But knowing the history does not make one a superior sports bettor. Nor does having 1100 loyalty bucks. They hand those loyalty bucks out to every sucker that comes down the turnpike.

PS: One of GWAE's advertisers is Unabated.com which delivers software that quantifies edges. It's owned by a couple of well known sportsbettors, Rufus Peabody and Capt. Jack Andrews.

So far we have Frank B on record saying he just handicaps numbers.

And we have Spanky on record saying if the consensus line is 16.5 but one book has it at 17.5 he'll take the 17.5 every time.

And he also said "if all the books have the line at 3 you have to be prepared to take the favorite at -2.5 or the dog at +3.5 if one book puts it up." That should tell you right there that Spanky is just handicapping numbers because he doesn't care which side he takes as long as it beats the closing line.

So Frank B and Spanky's methods are quite different that redietz.

[kewlJ]

These relentlous attacks by mickey crimm to discredit Redietz is about one thing and one thing only and that is that Redietz said Mickey was on the government "take" because he receives social security.

I don't think anyone agrees with that statement by Redeitz and it is small of Mickey to go at this like this in my opinion.

[mickeycrimm]

These relentlous attacks by mickey crimm to discredit Redietz is about one thing and one thing only and that is that Redietz said Mickey was on the government "take" because he receives social security.

I don't think anyone agrees with that statement by Redeitz and it is small of Mickey to go at this like this in my opinion.

Anyone with a brain knows that SS is a mandatory retirement system. The money does not come from the government. It comes from the trust fund that you payed into for 40 years. And you get payed according to what you payed in. Ditz knows all that. He thinks he can shame people. Do you think he won't claim his benefits? If you do I have some property east of Miami you might be interested in.

Redietz is the one doing the attacking, KJ. He's calling us all stupid, ignorant rubes on sportsbetting. He's told us that EV does not apply to sports betting. That it's all about opinion. Meanwhile there is no one else on the internet I can find that says the same thing. All I'm finding are guys that use software to run stats to see how to bet.

Have you heard redietz talk about software? How the fuck is he handicapping games if he doesn't use statistics?

I'm out to find the truth on this subject. How do pro bettors make their decisions? Redietz is not the last word on it. But do you notice he never gets specific. All generalizations. To paraphase ditz "there's a whole world out there" of sportsbettors. Let's see what their angle is.

Now he's already ran down Frank B and Spanky. Do you remember ditz saying "what book would be afraid of them?" I won't go into all the books these guys are limited to small bets or completely banned until later. But here's one out of many books that are afraid of Spanky:

[kewlJ]

I'm out to find the truth on this subject.

Really, mickey?!? That is what this is about....the truth?

Mickey, you are the biggest defender and supporter of a guy who claims he won by playing -EV games and then using using "special" even less optimal, even less EV plays to magically overcome the house edge.

As a matter of fact every single thing Rob Singer says and comes up with defies not only math, but reality, except of course the double up bug, which is a real claim by other players that he stole. And yet you defend and support him.

Singer has flat out lied about meeting with numerous people to prove such claims, including forum owner Dan Druff and yet you defend and support him.

Now all of the sudden, Mickey Crimm, is out to find the truth.

Again, mickey, this is about one thing and one thing only and that is that redietz made that stupid and erroneous statement that you were on the government take because you collect Social Security.

[accountinquestion]

I'm out to find the truth on this subject.

Really, mickey?!? That is what this is about....the truth?

Mickey, you are the biggest defender and supporter of a guy who claims he won by playing -EV games and then using using "special" even less optimal, even less EV plays to magically overcome the house edge.

As a matter of fact every single thing Rob Singer says and comes up with defies not only math, but reality, except of course the double up bug, which is a real claim by other players that he stole. And yet you defend and support him.

Singer has flat out lied about meeting with numerous people to prove such claims, including forum owner Dan Druff and yet you defend and support him.

Now all of the sudden, Mickey Crimm, is out to find the truth.

Again, mickey, this is about one thing and one thing only and that is that redietz made that stupid and erroneous statement that you were on the government take because you collect Social Security.

Just because Mickey happens to believe the double-up bug story that doesn't mean he "supports" Rob.

Where is Mr Strawman at?

[kewlJ]

Just because Mickey happens to believe the double-up bug story that doesn't mean he "supports" Rob.

THAT is only where it started. Mickey now defends and supports almost everything Singer says, including many things that mickey KNOWS are not true. I will give you the benefit of doubt in that maybe you don't read the other forum so don't know this.

And that is fine, if mickey no longer wants to be taken seriously on these forums and now just wants to troll, except when he wants to be serious, posting pictures of his trips. But don't feed us bullshit about how he is out to get to the truth. That ship has not only sailed but is half way across the ocean.

[mickeycrimm]

Some Spanky quotes:

"I'm not a professional handicapper. I'm a professional sports bettor."

"Just beating the closing line is not good enough. You have to beat the closing line by enough to overcome the vig."

"You don't want the highest EV possible. You want the lowest risk possible."

[accountinquestion]

What does Kewl see in Redietz that he is always trying to defend him? What could they have in common? Why doesn't Kewl see how condescending Redietz is and how he goes out of his way to double-down on it constantly? Why does Redietz bother posting in a forum where everyone else is a fraud? So many questions...

[kewlJ]

What does Kewl see in Redietz that he is always trying to defend him? What could they have in common? Why doesn't Kewl see how condescending Redietz is and how he goes out of his way to double-down on it constantly?

First, someone being condescending is not a reason to discredit them and call them a liar and that is what you guys are doing. It is a witch hunt, simply because you don't like the guy. At least you are honest about that.

Now if you were being honest, which you rarely are anymore, I don't know how you could possible say I always defend redietz.

I have said half dozen times that his comment about social security is wrong and ridiculous.
I Have come out against his stupid stance on anonymity of advantage players, probably a dozen times.
I have said numerous times that redietz is wrong on even this EV topic.

How is it you feel it ok to just say anything regardless that it is not true, just because you don't like someone. Be better than this dude.

[accountinquestion]

What does Kewl see in Redietz that he is always trying to defend him? What could they have in common? Why doesn't Kewl see how condescending Redietz is and how he goes out of his way to double-down on it constantly?

First, someone being condescending is not a reason to discredit them and call them a liar and that is what you guys are doing. It is a witch hunt, simply because you don't like the guy. At least you are honest about that.

Now if you were being honest, which you rarely are anymore, I don't know how you could possible say I always defend redietz.

I have said half dozen times that his comment about social security is wrong and ridiculous.
I Have come out against his stupid stance on anonymity of advantage players, probably a dozen times.
I have said numerous times that redietz is wrong on even this EV topic.

How is it you feel it ok to just say anything regardless that it is not true, just because you don't like someone. Be better than this dude.

You came to his aid in this thread out of nowhere. Yes, you don't eat up everything Redietz says but look at this thread. It is far from a first. Redietz deserves what he gets and if he doesn't it is from pure pity.

And BTW there is no sarcasm or joking in my post you quoted. Some tongue in cheek... but thats just because I'm letting others come up with their own answers.

[kewlJ]

You came to his aid in this thread out of nowhere. Yes, you don't eat up everything Redietz says but look at this thread. It is far from a first. Redietz deserves what he gets and if he doesn't it is from pure pity.

I came to his aid, if that is the term you want to use, because what mickey is doing is simply wrong. And this comment "deserves what he gets" is proof of that. This just is not ok.

The same thing has been happening with me for several years now, topped off by this seedvalue clown. Because you don't like someone, it is not ok, to make shit up to try to discredit them.

Now if you, mickey or anyone has some concerns or questions about something redietz has said or claimed, it is fair to question, even challenge him on those concerns. But if you, mickey or anyone else is being honest, that is NOT what this is. This is bullying someone you don't like and it is just ridiculous that is what these forums are and you supposedly grown men engage in.

Mickey in the past has stated that if someone comes after him, he will come back at them twice as hard. And that is ALL this is. Mickey feels slighted by this stupid, ridiculous WRONG comment redietz made about social security.