Professional Sportsbetting

[AxelWolf]

The only horse betting I have done has been the rare occasional tip or with a rare online ponies only bonus.

Many years ago at the Fiesta, they had a promotion where they were doubling payouts on something, I can't even remember what it was called, perhaps twinQ's(?) Anyways, it was huge +EV and could lock up free money betting on all the combinations. It didn't last long, perhaps a week. That's the extent of my horses.

Everyone I ever came across in the casinos who did machine AP and bet the horses were broke and broken.

[kewlJ]

Here is my horse racing story. Back in Philly, I frequented a bar a couple times a week starting on my days off, Thursday and Friday back when I worked before blackjack. This was not a gay bar, but a corner type sports bar. Some of the Philly sports players used to stop in on a Friday after a game. I developed a friendship with a core group of regulars that were all 15-20 years older than me.

So in 2004, there was a horse, Smarty Jones based from Phila Park, the Philly race track in the Kentucky derby. First Philly based horse, but there have since been others. So a group of 5 of us bar regulars and the owner went up to Philly Park Race track on derby day for a day of live racing and watching the derby on the screen. The track was packed. So one of the guys had this brilliant idea that we all throw, I forget what it was $100 or $120 into the pot and bet as many trifectas combinations as we could. With Derby fields at 16, 17 horses, there were often longshots involved and high trifecta prices.

So the rule was that everyone picked 6 horse they wanted in the mix and everyone picked one horse they did not want (a veto horse) and we would see how many combinations we could get. I forget how it worked but the veto horses were still in the mix, as long as someone else had picked him, but there would be far fewer combinations with him involved. Of course everyone had the local horse Smarty Jones as one of their picks. But Smarty Jones was my "veto horse". I had some reasons for this, it wasn't just to be contrary. No Pa horse had ever won the derby. No horse had won the derby after winning the prep races he had won like the Arkansas Derby instead of the normal prep races. The trainer went with the local jockey, Steward Elliot, instead of switching to one of the top national "big race" jockeys.

So needless to say, as we watched the derby on the screen, when the horses rounded the turn and Smarty Jones surged to the lead around the final turn and won going away, I was not very popular. We did not hit the trifecta. And every Friday night until I moved away my buddies never let me forget it. But it was good fun. I miss those days and those guys.

[tableplay]

Yes i am highly profitable at it. Enough that for many periods of time i stopped practicing law.now i am doing both as my clients are dying and probate work is very profitable.

This fact is not surprising - you can thank Pfizer and Moderna for the rise in your probate work IMHO.

[mickeycrimm]

Axel-that is a good and difficult question to answer. My primary handicapping tool in those days was the inside info we received from trainers or others at the particular colleges. Beyond that it was the normal things like matchups, home/ away, some degree of historicals, and just years of experience analyzing games. I was not that much into line movements as we had to publish early in the week.
I am not one to rely on stats that have no reasoning behind them. For example, mickey or smoke or someone has thrown out there some stat about dogs of 3 or less (or something like that). I need a reason for that stat. Otherwise to me it is just a statistical anomaly like heads coming up 70 out of 100 times. That being said, i probably made my biggest scores fading the big 10 in the bowl games and march madness. There is some degree of reason behind that—they are always over rated.

Knowledge and experience were the keys. There was no internet and widely known stats.. you had to make your own. I do agree it is completely different now which is why i stick to horses. Plus, instead of -105, i get much higher odds.

Smoke put up some Shack stats that showed NFL away dogs covered 54% over the last 30 years. I think that is significant and can't be called a trend.

All NFL away dogs? Or is there some criteria within a point spread?

Axel, this chart comes from the Wizard of Odds site. It's Shack's work. It looks like most of it is based on 2000+ games played. He gives the win/loss on various bets but also shows the ROI on the bets.

Betting All Away thru 3100 games showed a 53% win and 1.34% ROI.

Betting Away Underdogs thru 2100 games showed a 53.75% win and 2.57% ROI.

Betting All Hometeams, All Favorites, Home Favorites and Home Dogs were big losers.

[mickeycrimm]

Here's the stats on over/under and moneyline:

[Half Smoke]

.


doing nothing other than betting NFL away underdogs - an amateur would surely outperform many of those who call themselves pros

tweaking it as I have done, and instead betting only on away underdogs who get 4 points or fewer and the outperformance of so called pros is large

I've posted this before - anyway - I've tracked the last 4 regular seasons of the above and got 159-117 - 57.6% winners - pushes not considered - 10% r.o.i.

I will continue tracking every upcoming season and posting the seasonal and combined results

all of this can be verified by anybody who wants to do the work at covers.com




what's also very interesting - to me anyway - is that although the home fave is loved and over bet against the spread -

it is just the opposite on the money line - at least with extreme faves - usually at home - the underdog is over bet

that is because there is a favorite/longshot bias - bettors greatly prefer big payout to small payouts

this has been well documented in horse racing - not so much in other sports - but I believe it is a for sure thing - at least when it comes to extreme faves and dogs


.

[Half Smoke]

that is because there is a favorite/longshot bias - bettors greatly prefer big payout to small payouts

academics who have researched this in horse racing have called this phenomenon "Risk Love"


.

[AxelWolf]

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tweaking it as I have done, and instead betting only on away underdogs who get 4 points or fewer and the outperformance of so called pros is large

I've posted this before - anyway - I've tracked the last 4 regular seasons of the above and got 159-117 - 57.6% winners - pushes not considered - 10% r.o.i.


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Good stuff, good stuff. So on average, you'll get 69 opportunities per season. That's important to me because oftentimes the online bonuses only give you about 30 days to use your free bets.

[Don Perignom]

it is just the opposite on the money line - at least with extreme faves - usually at home - the underdog is over bet

that is because there is a favorite/longshot bias - bettors greatly prefer big payout to small payouts

I resemble that remark.

Most of my bets are + odds, because underdog bets earn greater reward points at some of the US-legal books. And some of the promos disallow deeply minus odds.

It makes sense that a +1000 is more popular than a -2000, for the same reason that Vegas locals drive to Primm to buy lottery tickets.

That would explain why the Super Bowl "no safety" would often be a good bet. I heard about that one from Wizard, although I assume redietz thought of it first.

[mickeycrimm]

This latest GWAE episode has Mr. Doppy on. He initially worked a lottery play. Then he moved to working sportsbook promotions. He's an advantage player not a handicapper. But he explains how even a novice sportsbettor could make money doing what he was doing. For the sports betting go to the 22:30 mark:

[Half Smoke]

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if a capper is sharp he's prolly going to be looking at the same lines as other sharps

at least some of the big books open up their lines at 12:45 a.m. - way, way before game time

the lines are very likely to be a lot looser then - but most won't get them due to laziness - they want to wake up at noon and get some coffee and then start thinking about their bets

I believe the lines available closest to game time are the tightest - that is 100% true in horse racing and although I can't prove it in sports betting - I believe it is undeniable

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[Treeshade]

That's what I mean, Boz. Every couple of years, someone comes out of the woodwork and claims they invented the wheel. It's hilarious. Like coming up with a way to attack these things required a PhD (which my late wife had two of, by the way). Every sports bettor with a brain attacked them.

The other comparable nonsense was when certain teasers were labeled "Wong teasers." And Wong's not even the guy's name, but I guess he was shooting for Asian intellectual stereotyping or something. Who the hell decided they were "Wong teasers?" Wong!?!

The teaser strategy pre-dated Wong by decades. If you read Larry Merchant's "National Football Lottery" -- circa 1972 -- it's clear he's emphasizing certain kinds of teasers as opposed to others. "Wong," in his infinite wisdom, basically outed the play and the consequences were that teaser odds changed for the worse.

Just as with Fezzik. Why even blather on about the frozen line, staggered in time thing? All you do is get every civilian to try it, which means more games will be made unavailable on the parlay cards late in the week. He did no one any favors except the books.

I feel badly that account and mickey crimm don't have the courage of their convictions. All I can do is make myself available to answer questions I'm unprepared for, and give them the opportunity to make an ass out of me on video. And I'll pay for account's room!

Boz, any suggestions? Should I throw in a hooker or something to sweeten the deal for them? Or maybe an ice cream cone for account?

FYI -- The Gangster Chronicles is an IHeartRadio series being helmed by George Anastasia, who is a journalist with absolutely impeccable credentials. I am honored to be involved at any level with the series.

So what ! knowledge is basically a commodity. It doesn’t matter what you know can you apply the knowledge in real time to make money. So many of you just talk shit and literally do nothing. Or do just enough to get by. No desire to be the best. No drive for excellence. That’s why I shit on all of you so much. It’s not that I don’t think some of you are sharp. It’s just I can’t stand people who are low functioning. Sports betting today is so easy and Boring with the free bets it’s about as fun as watching paint dry. If it’s about making the most money ithen certainly the guys breaking tos running the most servers and accounts are at the top. They are using the casinos own money to beat them at their own game. The best are NOT guys looking for investors lolololololol and handicapping or playing contest

[Treeshade]

Here is my horse racing story. Back in Philly, I frequented a bar a couple times a week starting on my days off, Thursday and Friday back when I worked before blackjack. This was not a gay bar, but a corner type sports bar. Some of the Philly sports players used to stop in on a Friday after a game. I developed a friendship with a core group of regulars that were all 15-20 years older than me.

So in 2004, there was a horse, Smarty Jones based from Phila Park, the Philly race track in the Kentucky derby. First Philly based horse, but there have since been others. So a group of 5 of us bar regulars and the owner went up to Philly Park Race track on derby day for a day of live racing and watching the derby on the screen. The track was packed. So one of the guys had this brilliant idea that we all throw, I forget what it was $100 or $120 into the pot and bet as many trifectas combinations as we could. With Derby fields at 16, 17 horses, there were often longshots involved and high trifecta prices.

So the rule was that everyone picked 6 horse they wanted in the mix and everyone picked one horse they did not want (a veto horse) and we would see how many combinations we could get. I forget how it worked but the veto horses were still in the mix, as long as someone else had picked him, but there would be far fewer combinations with him involved. Of course everyone had the local horse Smarty Jones as one of their picks. But Smarty Jones was my "veto horse". I had some reasons for this, it wasn't just to be contrary. No Pa horse had ever won the derby. No horse had won the derby after winning the prep races he had won like the Arkansas Derby instead of the normal prep races. The trainer went with the local jockey, Steward Elliot, instead of switching to one of the top national "big race" jockeys.

So needless to say, as we watched the derby on the screen, when the horses rounded the turn and Smarty Jones surged to the lead around the final turn and won going away, I was not very popular. We did not hit the trifecta. And every Friday night until I moved away my buddies never let me forget it. But it was good fun. I miss those days and those guys.

Word I got from state street said you got 86ed from parx trying to rub the shaft of smarty

[Half Smoke]

It’s not that I don’t think some of you are sharp. It’s just I can’t stand people who are low functioning. Sports betting today is so easy and Boring with the free bets it’s about as fun as watching paint dry. If it’s about making the most money ithen certainly the guys breaking tos running the most servers and accounts are at the top. They are using the casinos own money to beat them at their own game.

I agree with what you're saying but there is another aspect to it totally outside the monetary thing

can a capper beat the game without any promos or bonuses or other goodies such as boosts from the house___________?

it's a great challenge - it's not at all easy - and then if you can beat it what's the best r.o.i. you can achieve - think of the game of Chess - can you beat your r.o.i. from last season_______?

if you can beat the game where do you have the greatest impact_______? - a few bets with a relatively high r.o.i. - or many bets with a much smaller r.o.i._________________?

it's doable but hard in sports betting - much, much harder is horse racing -


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[mickeycrimm]

What is sportsbetting Expected Value?

https://sportshandle.com/expected-value/

[AxelWolf]

What is sportsbetting Expected Value?

https://sportshandle.com/expected-value/

It seems like this is from a handicapper's perspective with line shopping


Red was saying one needs a bunch of money in multiple accounts to target mathematically proven advantages I.E. a large bankroll that most people don't have.



"A bettor needs to win 52.38% of their bets just to break even." "the most profitable bettors win “only” around 55%-56% of bets."

How much would one need to be betting per game to make a living with handicapping only? That sounds like you need a significantly larger bankroll to fade the variance with the risk of actually going broke. Many of the other +EV non-handicapping methods have a higher player+EV percentage with way less variance.

Both can be scaled down to fit one's bankroll according to Kelly, but when doing so, a handicapper puts himself in a situation where he cannot make a living. Using Other +EV non-handicapping methods requires a much smaller bankroll with a higher earn.

I will admit IF you can consistently get 55-58 percent your higher-end potential is significantly better, especially if you have a bankroll that can fade getting in hundreds of thousands in action.

When does a handicapper know when he himself has been handicapped? How many years before he realizes something has changed and he no longer has an advantage for whatever reason?

[accountinquestion]

What is sportsbetting Expected Value?

https://sportshandle.com/expected-value/

It seems like this is from a handicapper's perspective with line shopping


Red was saying one needs a bunch of money in multiple accounts to target mathematically proven advantages I.E. a large bankroll that most people don't have.



"A bettor needs to win 52.38% of their bets just to break even." "the most profitable bettors win “only” around 55%-56% of bets."

How much would one need to be betting per game to make a living with handicapping only? That sounds like you need a significantly larger bankroll to fade the variance with the risk of actually going broke. Many of the other +EV non-handicapping methods have a higher player+EV percentage with way less variance.

Both can be scaled down to fit one's bankroll according to Kelly, but when doing so, a handicapper puts himself in a situation where he cannot make a living. Using Other +EV non-handicapping methods requires a much smaller bankroll with a higher earn.

I will admit IF you can consistently get 55-58 percent your higher-end potential is significantly better, especially if you have a bankroll that can fade getting in hundreds of thousands in action.

When does a handicapper know when he himself has been handicapped? How many years before he realizes something has changed and he no longer has an advantage for whatever reason?

EXCELLENT point. With the concept of EV you weigh the better bets vs betting on your hunches. Handicapping seems to be about other aspects of gambling that don't include maximizing money won.

[AxelWolf]

What is sportsbetting Expected Value?

https://sportshandle.com/expected-value/

It seems like this is from a handicapper's perspective with line shopping


Red was saying one needs a bunch of money in multiple accounts to target mathematically proven advantages I.E. a large bankroll that most people don't have.



"A bettor needs to win 52.38% of their bets just to break even." "the most profitable bettors win “only” around 55%-56% of bets."

How much would one need to be betting per game to make a living with handicapping only? That sounds like you need a significantly larger bankroll to fade the variance with the risk of actually going broke. Many of the other +EV non-handicapping methods have a higher player+EV percentage with way less variance.

Both can be scaled down to fit one's bankroll according to Kelly, but when doing so, a handicapper puts himself in a situation where he cannot make a living. Using Other +EV non-handicapping methods requires a much smaller bankroll with a higher earn.

I will admit IF you can consistently get 55-58 percent your higher-end potential is significantly better, especially if you have a bankroll that can fade getting in hundreds of thousands in action.

When does a handicapper know when he himself has been handicapped? How many years before he realizes something has changed and he no longer has an advantage for whatever reason?

EXCELLENT point. With the concept of EV you weigh the better bets vs betting on your hunches. Handicapping seems to be about other aspects of gambling that don't include maximizing money won.

Also, apparently, one needs years of experience at handicapping I'm not sure how one knows when they're good enough and how many years before one can earn a living.

[Half Smoke]

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EV in handicapping is not the same as EV in blackjack for example - in blackjack and probably machine play EV can be calculated very accurately

EV in handicapping is nothing other than a speculation

NOBODY can say for sure what the true odds are of the Astros beating the Pirates today

it's nothing but an opinion

a capper may brag that he got an r.oi. of 7% last year betting 250 hoops games and it may be public knowledge and it may be true

but in no way does that mean he's guaranteed to score again in the same way in the upcoming year - the game changes and the capper himself may have changed -

that doesn't mean that many cappers can't beat sports without promos or bonuses or boosts - it just means that it's not something you can place in a box and tie up very neatly





having said that - there is a CAW (computer assisted wagering) team crushing horse racing - see link

so, maybe some geeks with a very sophisticated program could come up with the true odds on a sporting event - I dunno - I'm not at all sure about that - an NFL game has maybe 30 players total out on the field - would seem really difficult to do - even for the best computer thing



https://www.ft.com/content/402955aa-...7-f79e7f19a617



the article has been put behind a paywall - costs $1.00 to read - here are some facts about this team:



accounted for 25% of all wagering at Gulfstream last year - bet $4.5 million in one day at Gulfstream

they may account for 20% of all horse racing wagering in the U.S.

they get a 10% rebate on their bets and are located in the tax haven island of Curacao in the Dutch Caribbean


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[mickeycrimm]

The horse races are live sports betting. Humans or Horses? What's the difference when betting? This guy, Bill Benter wrote a computer program that made him a billion dollars betting on horses. And horse racing, with the double digit juice, is far far harder to beat than human sports. Before horse racing Benter was a "blackjack AP." So much for AP's can't make it in sports betting. I've got something in common with this guy, I used to hang out at the Western too.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...se-racing-code