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Thread: Professional Sportsbetting

  1. #1981
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    I'm not even factoring in the go big or go home advantage where your rolling over would be greatly reduced and your edge would be higher.
    There are ways to direct the flow and make it less likely you'll be a winner at that joint thus more big offers to be negotiated.
    I'm with you on the first sentence, but clueless on the second.

    If I have $1000 at two different books, is there a way to selectively bust one while doubling up the other?

    I can't wait to hear the answer to this one. I'll PM my predictions as to who will say what, using which incorrect lingo.

  2. #1982
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I can't wait to hear the answer to this one. I'll PM my predictions as to who will say what, using which incorrect lingo.
    My PMs are down at the moment.

    I'm always interested in lingo. I tried searching a couple of AP-oriented glossaries, but no hits. I did discover, however, that the Elo ratings are not named after the Electric Light Orchestra.

  3. #1983
    My fave local lingo is account's "soft" lines. Maybe Viagra would help. I wrote up a summary, predicting which luminary would say what.

  4. #1984
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    My fave local lingo is account's "soft" lines. Maybe Viagra would help. I wrote up a summary, predicting which luminary would say what.

    So arrogant for someone so broke

    Net worth bet anytime old man.

    Not only are you broke I can tell by the things you have posted your weak ass mindset is just like most low functional people. I bet it would be hard to find more then 5 people you have helped become wealthy. Probably havenít helped anyone for that matter. No kids either right what a life man what a life keep telling us how great you are, but still have nothing but rat thoughts in that brain

  5. #1985
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    I'm not even factoring in the go big or go home advantage where your rolling over would be greatly reduced and your edge would be higher.
    There are ways to direct the flow and make it less likely you'll be a winner at that joint thus more big offers to be negotiated.
    I'm with you on the first sentence, but clueless on the second.

    If I have $1000 at two different books, is there a way to selectively bust one while doubling up the other?
    There's no 100% guaranteed way, however, you can take long shots on a particular account so it's more likely than not. A savvy bettor can find situations where he isn't giving up much vig, or he might even be in a +EV situation, however, that now takes time and effort. That's where I fall short when doing it, I'll only put in a small amount of effort looking for the perfect situation. Oftentimes, I just calculate everything assuming I'm gonna lose double vig when I'm in a situation looking to just extract the money. There are other ways of going about it and having 99% confidence the money will flow in a certain direction, but that gets complicated.

  6. #1986
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    There's no 100% guaranteed way, however, you can take long shots on a particular account so it's more likely than not.
    Tbh, I was hoping for a 100% guaranteed way, but maybe this tactic is more useful than I think it is.

    Is there any way I can use it to beat roulette?

  7. #1987
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    There's no 100% guaranteed way, however, you can take long shots on a particular account so it's more likely than not.
    Tbh, I was hoping for a 100% guaranteed way, but maybe this tactic is more useful than I think it is.

    Is there any way I can use it to beat roulette?
    I'm not sure if that's a serious question or not but unless you have something extra going on, it is impossible to gain an advantage on roulette straight up.

    With bonuses or promotions, one could beat roulette however they mostly have caught on to roulette, and either banned it or they only count it as 1%-10% of any wagering requirements rendering most deposit bonuses unbeatable occasionally you'll find something that makes roulette, +EV however that probably means other games are eligible as well that would be 3x-10x better to play.

    You could use roulette for flow direction via off-setting longshot bets at 2 different locations when available, however there's no way to guarantee you're longshots won't come in at the casino you don't want it to. There's a chance they catch on and screw you.

    The situations where you can guarantee it are rare.

  8. #1988
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    I'm not sure if that's a serious question or not
    Sorry, it was a stupid comment.

    The scenario reminded me of table degens martingaling their bets on the b&m American roulette tables. But I can definitely imagine the game being worth a look online especially with the possibility of single zero wheels and better rules.

  9. #1989
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    I'm not sure if that's a serious question or not
    Sorry, it was a stupid comment.

    The scenario reminded me of table degens martingaling their bets on the b&m American roulette tables. But I can definitely imagine the game being worth a look online especially with the possibility of single zero wheels and better rules.
    The first state-run casino bonus I did was allowed on roulette for full wagering credit, they just said no opposite betting. I did mostly VP but wanted to test the roulette and make sure it was full credit.

    There's definitely +EV Bonuses that can be played on roulette I see table games only bonuses frequently.

  10. #1990
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    Sorry, it was a stupid comment.


    Gosh, that second photo of Elvis looks like your avatar. Ha.
    Upping my game. Ha.


    Gambling will addict some of the people, some of the time, but, deludes all of the people, all of the time.
    ---> O, tell me the, tell me the list of "doped up" people out of left field who claimed to be a gambling messiah.


    No matter where you go, there you are!
    ---> O! Gee, turn the other way. You are more.


    My final, final anagram with gematria, https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...l=1#post171878

  11. #1991
    Originally Posted by 1Hit1der View Post
    Gosh, that second photo of Elvis looks like your avatar. Ha.
    First one looks like Axel's avatar.

    Name:  first looks like.png
Views: 169
Size:  134.2 KB

  12. #1992
    Yeah, you got me there. Ha.
    Upping my game. Ha.


    Gambling will addict some of the people, some of the time, but, deludes all of the people, all of the time.
    ---> O, tell me the, tell me the list of "doped up" people out of left field who claimed to be a gambling messiah.


    No matter where you go, there you are!
    ---> O! Gee, turn the other way. You are more.


    My final, final anagram with gematria, https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...l=1#post171878

  13. #1993
    Originally Posted by 1Hit1der View Post
    Yeah, you got me there. Ha.
    Your avatar is difficult. Best I can do:

    Name:  best i can do.png
Views: 173
Size:  195.5 KB

  14. #1994
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    [

    If I have $1000 at two different books, is there a way to selectively bust one while doubling up the other?

    I had this situation a while back. I even asked here if there was a way to do what you want to do. My scenario was that I had run up mid to high 4 figures playing some low limit blackjack at one online casino. Problem was this was a casino I had no confidence in because I had not successfully made any withdrawals at the time. I wanted to try to get that money into my other online casino/sportsbook account, where I had successfully had a couple withdrawals.

    I didn't get any real good answers on how to do that. I tried to do a version of what Axelwolf said making some bets that I felt strongly about at the sportsbook I wanted the money in, and offset them at the other. But I didn't get anywhere. Just sort of was grinding away. Eventually, I just went ahead and withdrew the money in segments and eventually got my money.
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  15. #1995
    Originally Posted by MDawg View Post
    The longer the UNKewl post, the more lies it contains.

    And of course, there will be some regurgitation of theory he pulled from somewhere or other blah blah blah as he tries to make it seem like he has actually played and not just read about it.
    I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  16. #1996
    Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post
    Originally Posted by 1Hit1der View Post
    Yeah, you got me there. Ha.
    Your avatar is difficult. Best I can do:

    Name:  best i can do.png
Views: 173
Size:  195.5 KB
    Not to be outdone, I had to resort to the first anagram solution that contained a V, C, and T.


    Originally Posted by Don Perignom...

    Originally Posted by 1Hit1der View Post
    Yeah, you got me there. Ha.
    Your avatar is difficult. Best I can do:
    ---> The Portrait Is Finished and I HaVe Failed to CapTure Your Beauty...

    https://anagram-solver.net/%20Origin...o?partial=true


    I'm not sure why the anagram solution above turned out like the last one with you, with the "Originally Posted by Don Perignom View Post" part not in the overall quote, but, it completed the pair. Perhaps, because you were a bit problematic in each instance. Ha.

    Originally posted by Don Perignom ...

    Originally Posted by 1Hit1der View Post
    Specific solid evidence of a nutty, if not total fraud, Crimm.
    Give me the shittiest take you have.
    ---> Sleights of Mind: What the Neuroscience of Magic Reveals about Our Everyday Deceptions.

    https://anagram-solver.net/%20Origin...e?partial=true


    https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...529#post171529
    Last edited by 1Hit1der; 01-24-2024 at 09:27 PM.
    Upping my game. Ha.


    Gambling will addict some of the people, some of the time, but, deludes all of the people, all of the time.
    ---> O, tell me the, tell me the list of "doped up" people out of left field who claimed to be a gambling messiah.


    No matter where you go, there you are!
    ---> O! Gee, turn the other way. You are more.


    My final, final anagram with gematria, https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...l=1#post171878

  17. #1997
    Captain Jack on Unabated talking about Super Bowl prop bets.

    https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas...=1000642842019

    Rufus Peabody will probably have a show on props on the Bet the Process podcast.

  18. #1998
    The Wizard of Odds just released his prediction for Super Bowl 58.

    His model says San Francisco should be favored by 3.4 Points. At the time of the article SF was favored by 1.5. He doesn't think the 1.9 point difference covers the -110 vig. So he won't bet that line. I just checked Bovada and Betonline and their lines are now at -2 -103 and -2.5 -109.

    For the O/U his model says 42.8 points. The line is at 47.5 on both Betonline and Bovada. Shack is betting the under at that number.

    I made a $50 bet on under 47.5 -105 at Bovada.

    You can read his Wizard of Odds Superbowl 58 article here:

    https://wizardofodds.com/newsletter/...super-bowl-58/

    And here he shows his handicapping model and the results for the past 7 years:

    https://wizardofodds.com/newsletter/february-03-2023/

    Shack's handicapping numbers are easily verifiable. But he has a disclaimer that he is not a professional handicapper.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 02-01-2024 at 06:22 AM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  19. #1999
    About 10 years ago, I won the Heritage Sports Race to the Super Bowl versus a couple thousand people. The contest had featured NFL no-spread picks and totals of primetime games. The prize was 25K in Super Bowl bets. Since I didn't really like the game, I used the wagers on prop bets. I went to Las Vegas for a few days, surveyed numbers, and between a dozen offshores and LV itself, I tried to middle or arbitrage everything. There were a couple of arbitrage opportunities, but just for lunch money. Most were obscure props with $500 limits. I shopped and shopped and shopped to set up middles shots. When the smoke cleared on dozens of bets, I middled just one -- longest punt. LOL. I met one of the old forum regulars (the one who did the Robocchio GIFs) at Westgate, and he gave me a video poker lesson or two touring downtown. Fun trip, but I nearly went blind trying to squint at literally thousands of props printed out. Most of the props with weaknesses had $500 (and occasionally even $300) limits, so it was a lot of work.

    What I remember most about that trip was that I posted here first, saying that I had won $25 in SB bets and could use some advice. Rob Singer immediately chimed in with what a desperate low roller I was. I had purposefully left the K off the "25." With the arbitrage and middles shots, I actually wound up betting close to 40K.

    Anyway, the following year, my better half won the Race to the Super Bowl. She only TIED for first, however, so she got roughly 6K in SB wagers. You don't see household back-to-backs like that too often. Then, due to her reputation, she got banned from playing their contests. They won't even allow her to play squares pools. Pretty funny. But I'm still allowed. I guess my rep must suck. Maybe I owe it to VCT. LOL.

    P.S. I finished 43rd in the contest this season. Couldn't get a total right to save my life for the first two months. I rallied late but was never really in contention.

  20. #2000
    Banned from contests is up there with you actually going on Druffs show.
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

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