Professional Sportsbetting

[mickeycrimm]

A few posts up you were saying how APs shouldn't be wasting their time using middles shooting as a way to work off bonuses. Now you're into it. LOL. I get a kick out of you. You think you discovered something? C'mon, man. This is all SOP. It is truly bizarre that you think you are brightest bulb in the universe.

Just because you're being a maroon, I'll not post what sports should be utilized when for optimal middles shooting. Blame yourself, mick. I suspect you'll be using the least efficient sport. Good luck with that.

Lunch next week will feature some debunking of the Walters how-to chapters -- what he has right, what he has wrong. Why the chapters' context is faulty, which is why he probably included them. He knew, of course. A little bit of math will be involved, which is fine since folks who taught college stats will be at the lunch. I'll post the location in case you can make it.

Have a good one.

Your nose is getting long there, big fella. I never said anyone shouldn't waste their time looking for positive middles. I said it is time consuming. But go ahead and make shit up at will. No one around here cares about your bullshit.

You lie again when you say I think I discovered something. Get a clue, dude. Sportsbetting been going on for decades and gillions of bettors. So I think I discovered something that no one else knew? Do you ever get tired of lying.

And once again, you tell another lie. You're a habitual. Only YOU are stupid enough to think you are the brightest bulb in the universe.

Quit making up lies and smearing people, strawman.

So you were going to write about football and basketball totals? No you weren't. You are lying again. You just can't make a truthful statement. I won't be using the least efficient sport because I don't sports bet. I don't work that much anymore, but when I do, I already have enough on my plate. Don't need the sportsbetting gig.

You said you werent' going to post here anymore. I'm disappointed you didn't keep your word, maroon.

[mickeycrimm]

Lunch next week will feature some debunking of the Walters how-to chapters -- what he has right, what he has wrong. Why the chapters' context is faulty, which is why he probably included them. He knew, of course. A little bit of math will be involved, which is fine since folks who taught college stats will be at the lunch. I'll post the location in case you can make it.Have a good one.

What did you use for the meeting? A 4-person table or a 6-person table. I can't find any press on the meeting. What's up with that? You said they would be there. Another lie?

Care to divulge the name(s) of those with, ahem, press credentials that were there?

So you are saying that a book that was released with much fanfare has deliberate false information on sports betting? Do you really think Walter's would set himself up for the criticism from all corners that would follow such a thing? There's no way something like that could be swept under the rug. Do you really think he wants his legacy to be that he lied in the book?

Let us know which reporters from your meeting run with this assuredly big story and which newspapers publish it. I'm sure the publisher wants to hear about it.

[kewlJ]

Here is a question for ya mickey, redietz, or anybody really: is there anybody out there that is making a living or strong supplemental income betting sports straight up? Or is the juice just too much to overcome long-term. Druff has and is doing well in NFL past couple years, but averall, he looks to be in the red and I don't think he is making any real money.

That would be not betting contests as redietz tells us about
No futures like redietz will claim at the end of a season and then hedge against this all-of-the-sudden futures wager.
No bonus whoring like I am doing at the moment and seems to be a lot of players doing.
No hawking their picks or service like some of thse guys on different gambling shows and podcasts do.

Are there people just wagering a handful of games each week that they like? Anybody still around that does that?

I guess if there are we probably wouldn't hear from them, because they have nothing to hawk or sell.

I do get a kick out of some of these guys on a gambling show or podcast that tell you last week they went 6-1 with a 2 team parlay. reminds me of those selling the tout cards outside the racetrack when I went with my grandfather as a kid. "yesterday I had 6 winners including the daily double".

By the way mickeycrimm said something above about trying to discover something new that no one else has discovered (not him doing that). Well, I am just trying to discover some things that are new to me. Things like lilredrooster shares at WoV backed by a decent amount of past data. Of course in the end, everything I am doing is really about the bonus whoring.

[jpfromla]

Lunch next week will feature some debunking of the Walters how-to chapters -- what he has right, what he has wrong. Why the chapters' context is faulty, which is why he probably included them. He knew, of course. A little bit of math will be involved, which is fine since folks who taught college stats will be at the lunch. I'll post the location in case you can make it.Have a good one.

What did you use for the meeting? A 4-person table or a 6-person table. I can't find any press on the meeting. What's up with that? You said they would be there. Another lie?

Care to divulge the name(s) of those with, ahem, press credentials that were there?

So you are saying that a book that was released with much fanfare has deliberate false information on sports betting? Do you really think Walter's would set himself up for the criticism from all corners that would follow such a thing? There's no way something like that could be swept under the rug. Do you really think he wants his legacy to be that he lied in the book?

Let us know which reporters from your meeting run with this assuredly big story and which newspapers publish it. I'm sure the publisher wants to hear about it.

The Italian Pizza Pub got a 4.7 Yelp with 31 reviews. How's the chix Parm sandwich?

[AxelWolf]

Here is a question for ya mickey, redietz, or anybody really: is there anybody out there that is making a living or strong supplemental income betting sports straight up? Or is the juice just too much to overcome long-term. Druff has and is doing well in NFL past couple years, but averall, he looks to be in the red and I don't think he is making any real money.

That would be not betting contests as redietz tells us about
No futures like redietz will claim at the end of a season and then hedge against this all-of-the-sudden futures wager.
No bonus whoring like I am doing at the moment and seems to be a lot of players doing.
No hawking their picks or service like some of thse guys on different gambling shows and podcasts do.

Are there people just wagering a handful of games each week that they like? Anybody still around that does that?

I guess if there are we probably wouldn't hear from them, because they have nothing to hawk or sell.

I do get a kick out of some of these guys on a gambling show or podcast that tell you last week they went 6-1 with a 2 team parlay. reminds me of those selling the tout cards outside the racetrack when I went with my grandfather as a kid. "yesterday I had 6 winners including the daily double".

By the way mickeycrimm said something above about trying to discover something new that no one else has discovered (not him doing that). Well, I am just trying to discover some things that are new to me. Things like lilredrooster shares at WoV backed by a decent amount of past data. Of course in the end, everything I am doing is really about the bonus whoring.

A good sport's bettor who uses everything +EV to his advantage and someone who bets large (and small) makes a shit ton per year. They definitely don't live in any podubk towns driving podubk cars and living in podubk houses. They probably spend half the year in exotic places living it up on the beach.

[AxelWolf]

Lunch next week will feature some debunking of the Walters how-to chapters -- what he has right, what he has wrong. Why the chapters' context is faulty, which is why he probably included them. He knew, of course. A little bit of math will be involved, which is fine since folks who taught college stats will be at the lunch. I'll post the location in case you can make it.Have a good one.

What did you use for the meeting? A 4-person table or a 6-person table. I can't find any press on the meeting. What's up with that? You said they would be there. Another lie?

Care to divulge the name(s) of those with, ahem, press credentials that were there?

So you are saying that a book that was released with much fanfare has deliberate false information on sports betting? Do you really think Walter's would set himself up for the criticism from all corners that would follow such a thing? There's no way something like that could be swept under the rug. Do you really think he wants his legacy to be that he lied in the book?

Let us know which reporters from your meeting run with this assuredly big story and which newspapers publish it. I'm sure the publisher wants to hear about it.

Mickey when/where did you apologize to
redietz?

[AxelWolf]

Lunch next week will feature some debunking of the Walters how-to chapters -- what he has right, what he has wrong. Why the chapters' context is faulty, which is why he probably included them. He knew, of course. A little bit of math will be involved, which is fine since folks who taught college stats will be at the lunch. I'll post the location in case you can make it.Have a good one.

What did you use for the meeting? A 4-person table or a 6-person table. I can't find any press on the meeting. What's up with that? You said they would be there. Another lie?

Care to divulge the name(s) of those with, ahem, press credentials that were there?

So you are saying that a book that was released with much fanfare has deliberate false information on sports betting? Do you really think Walter's would set himself up for the criticism from all corners that would follow such a thing? There's no way something like that could be swept under the rug. Do you really think he wants his legacy to be that he lied in the book?

Let us know which reporters from your meeting run with this assuredly big story and which newspapers publish it. I'm sure the publisher wants to hear about it.

Mickey when/where did you apologize to
redietz?

[MaxPen]

A good sport's bettor who uses everything +EV to his advantage and someone who bets large (and small) makes a shit ton per year. They definitely don't live in any podubk towns driving podubk cars and living in podubk houses. They probably spend half the year in exotic places living it up on the beach.

I don't know about all that but I would bet they pay their property tax..

[AxelWolf]

Here is a question for ya mickey, redietz, or anybody really: is there anybody out there that is making a living or strong supplemental income betting sports straight up? Or is the juice just too much to overcome long-term. Druff has and is doing well in NFL past couple years, but averall, he looks to be in the red and I don't think he is making any real money.

That would be not betting contests as redietz tells us about
No futures like redietz will claim at the end of a season and then hedge against this all-of-the-sudden futures wager.
No bonus whoring like I am doing at the moment and seems to be a lot of players doing.
No hawking their picks or service like some of thse guys on different gambling shows and podcasts do.

Are there people just wagering a handful of games each week that they like? Anybody still around that does that?

I guess if there are we probably wouldn't hear from them, because they have nothing to hawk or sell.

I do get a kick out of some of these guys on a gambling show or podcast that tell you last week they went 6-1 with a 2 team parlay. reminds me of those selling the tout cards outside the racetrack when I went with my grandfather as a kid. "yesterday I had 6 winners including the daily double".

By the way mickeycrimm said something above about trying to discover something new that no one else has discovered (not him doing that). Well, I am just trying to discover some things that are new to me. Things like lilredrooster shares at WoV backed by a decent amount of past data. Of course in the end, everything I am doing is really about the bonus whoring.

A good sport's bettor who uses everything +EV to his advantage and someone who bets large (and small) makes a shit ton per year. They definitely don't live in any podubk towns driving podubk cars and living in podubk houses. They probably spend half the year in exotic places living it up on the beach.

I don't know about all that but I would bet they pay their property tax..

Perhaps their property taxes are in the 100s of thousands.

[kewlJ]

A good sport's bettor who uses everything +EV to his advantage and someone who bets large (and small) makes a shit ton per year. [/QUOTE]

Do you personally know anyone or even of anyone that makes a living solely from sports betting? Not from the bonuses, or contests, just solely from playing a handful of games and winning enough to overcome the vig and make a decent living? Just wondering is this is still a thing?

[regnis]

Here is a question for ya mickey, redietz, or anybody really: is there anybody out there that is making a living or strong supplemental income betting sports straight up? Or is the juice just too much to overcome long-term. Druff has and is doing well in NFL past couple years, but averall, he looks to be in the red and I don't think he is making any real money.

That would be not betting contests as redietz tells us about
No futures like redietz will claim at the end of a season and then hedge against this all-of-the-sudden futures wager.
No bonus whoring like I am doing at the moment and seems to be a lot of players doing.
No hawking their picks or service like some of thse guys on different gambling shows and podcasts do.

Are there people just wagering a handful of games each week that they like? Anybody still around that does that?

I guess if there are we probably wouldn't hear from them, because they have nothing to hawk or sell.

I do get a kick out of some of these guys on a gambling show or podcast that tell you last week they went 6-1 with a 2 team parlay. reminds me of those selling the tout cards outside the racetrack when I went with my grandfather as a kid. "yesterday I had 6 winners including the daily double".

By the way mickeycrimm said something above about trying to discover something new that no one else has discovered (not him doing that). Well, I am just trying to discover some things that are new to me. Things like lilredrooster shares at WoV backed by a decent amount of past data. Of course in the end, everything I am doing is really about the bonus whoring.

Kewl-not to age myself but in 1980, my salary was 25k. I couldnt live on that even 50 years ago. I got involved in sports betting. There were no bonuses and whoring. It was strictly
handicapping. On short $ i was making 50-60 k. I then got seriously involved and worked for a handicapping service. We had resources all over the country. I got fired for refusing to give out both sides of a game.
I ultimately got out of sports the day that vice kicked down my door on a sunday right before kickoff before i could secure all my papers. Had to get a big criminal lawyer friend and refused to testify. They had wire tapped my bookie’s phone and mine.
So it could be done. I dont know if it can today. My mind bets suck but i dont put any effort in other than hockey.

[cyberbabble]

reditz,

All you have to do is give us a few college football picks each week. The season is only about half over. You have plenty of time to prove you can do it.

If you do well I might buy some picks next year.

[redietz]

There are both savants and programmers winning at college hoops. College football can be beaten.

There is technically no such thing as "the juice." There are various odds at various places at various times. Part of the book club discussion and Q&A yesterday involved guys who taught college math trying to get a handle on the overhead for doing what Walters did (runners, lawyers, experts, programmers). I explained that the 52.4% is not set in stone -- that you have -108's (Pinnacle, for example), that you have transient 105s and 105s if you negotiate in Las Vegas for larger amounts. It turns out that the person who headed the cartel at the same time as The Computer Group had been able to negotiate -103. When you broke it all down and averaged it out, for cartels the number was significantly below -110. So that alleged 52.4% sinks down into the 51 to 51.5% range or lower, and simply getting the best numbers at the best times makes profiting potentially possible.

Of course, some sports are more beatable than others, and the sports people bet most on are the least beatable. Such is the circle of life.

Regnis -- I had a pretty good book club meeting yesterday. The questions were much more sophisticated than I expected. But I guess when a bunch of professors and the occasional Harvard law degree show up because they read Walters' book, they aren't there to be idiots. There's a follow-up next week -- a lunch get together to discuss the book in a bit more detail. I did a formal intro for the meeting; I guess I'll post it at some point or publish it as a blog piece. I think most people were on the same page regarding Walters. The special guest knew Walters' hierarchy set-up. Lawyers were at the top FYI. They were considered not expendable. You should feel good about that. LOL.

I'm going to review the two how-to chapters with one of the guys who taught some probability. He made a boatload of notes and we only scratched the surface, so we'll do a deeper dive. The context of the chapters undermines their overall value (they are NFL-focused using long-term stats), but there are a couple of actual helpful thoughts in there -- you just have to squint real hard to notice them.

[AxelWolf]

A good sport's bettor who uses everything +EV to his advantage and someone who bets large (and small) makes a shit ton per year.

Do you personally know anyone or even of anyone that makes a living solely from sports betting? Not from the bonuses, or contests, just solely from playing a handful of games and winning enough to overcome the vig and make a decent living? Just wondering is this is still a thing?[/QUOTE] I don't know anyone who only handicaps
Everyone I have ever know who bets +EV sports on a decent level use any all all advantages such as bonuses, middling, stale lines arbitrage etc, they can possibly get. They will also make plays that have nothing to do with sports betting if it's a good enough opportunity.

[AxelWolf]

Perhaps someone can make money handicapping butI doubt you could make money paying a tout or service. Unless they charged so little and if thats the case how does that tout/service make any money? If you could beat sports consistently for years there's no reason you would want investors. Perhaps at the beginning to pump up your bankroll. Unless your investors were doing the work and putting the bets in for you.

[Half Smoke]

reditz,

All you have to do is give us a few college football picks each week. The season is only about half over. You have plenty of time to prove you can do it.

you have a better chance of witnessing a miracle than there is of that happening

.

[AxelWolf]

reditz,

All you have to do is give us a few college football picks each week. The season is only about half over. You have plenty of time to prove you can do it.

you have a better chance of witnessing a miracle than there is of that happening

.

He has been asked this before and he says that it's not fair to his investors.

[Half Smoke]

reditz,

All you have to do is give us a few college football picks each week. The season is only about half over. You have plenty of time to prove you can do it.

you have a better chance of witnessing a miracle than there is of that happening

.

He has been asked this before and he says that it's not fair to his investors.

nothing that he has ever posted here - or anywhere else that I've seen - has been even remotely close to being as valuable as Mike's tracking of NFL results -

and Mike isn't even a sports guy


https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/


kinna annoying watching a guy continually blow his own horn who has offered so little

I can't recall even one thing he posted that I would consider helpful in making a pick

in fairness - maybe there have been some helpful posts - but I somehow missed them


.

[mickeycrimm]

Lunch next week will feature some debunking of the Walters how-to chapters -- what he has right, what he has wrong. Why the chapters' context is faulty, which is why he probably included them. He knew, of course. A little bit of math will be involved, which is fine since folks who taught college stats will be at the lunch. I'll post the location in case you can make it.Have a good one.

What did you use for the meeting? A 4-person table or a 6-person table. I can't find any press on the meeting. What's up with that? You said they would be there. Another lie?

Care to divulge the name(s) of those with, ahem, press credentials that were there?

So you are saying that a book that was released with much fanfare has deliberate false information on sports betting? Do you really think Walter's would set himself up for the criticism from all corners that would follow such a thing? There's no way something like that could be swept under the rug. Do you really think he wants his legacy to be that he lied in the book?

Let us know which reporters from your meeting run with this assuredly big story and which newspapers publish it. I'm sure the publisher wants to hear about it.

Mickey when/where did you apologize to
redietz?

I didn't apologize to redietz for anything. I have no idea what I would apologize for.

[redietz]

you have a better chance of witnessing a miracle than there is of that happening

.

He has been asked this before and he says that it's not fair to his investors.

nothing that he has ever posted here - or anywhere else that I've seen - has been even remotely close to being as valuable as Mike's tracking of NFL results -

and Mike isn't even a sports guy


https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/


kinna annoying watching a guy continually blow his own horn who has offered so little

I can't recall even one thing he posted that I would consider helpful in making a pick

in fairness - maybe there have been some helpful posts - but I somehow missed them


.

You've gotta be kidding. There are literally dozens of people tracking all results 24/7 for all sports. There are hundreds of people, at a minimum, tracking all NFL results.

This has been going on for 30 years.

Have you never read a Playbook? It's been publishing for 30-some years. Jesus, man, it's one of the (if not THE) biggest selling combo college football/NFL preseason magazine published in this country. It's entirely historical ATS angles. The magazine itself usually lists the last five years of this and that, but if you access their online material, it goes back forever. They publish an online newsletter weekly.

It would not have occurred to me that simple tracking of some NFL angles would be so valuable to some. It's a little bit funny, the fact that people don't know this stuff. I guess Shackleford does, and he doesn't bother to mention Playbook or other ATS publications to his readers, which is even funnier. And his readers then think Shackleford is doing unique analyses.

Yeah, okay. You realize Billy Walters, toting $200 million for the last 30 years, could hire whoever he wanted? He hired dozens of programmers and experts, but Shackleford was not on that list.

If you do not know what I just wrote, then you are commenting on things you know nothing about. Why do that? Why declare things and opine when you know nothing?

If you don't know that historically the NFL is the toughest nut to crack in terms of profits and should be your last port in a gambling storm, well, you should attend a book club once in awhile.

This is what I find so absurd. People who do not know or grasp basic historical information go around commenting about things they know nothing about. Like AP Mickey -- spent post after post saying middles shooting to work off bonuses was a waste of time and blah, blah. Then he actually looked at it and had a hallelujah moment. I can't believe he didn't look at it before. Why do you think I was stunned that KewlJ didn't pivot (once he was up 25 games) to the middles shooting? I presumed this stuff was obvious and everybody had some kind of handle on it.

It's strange. People who count cards for a living, or exploit machines, don't know these things. It's like finding out that your auto mechanic doesn't know how to use a microwave.