Yeah, I was confused about this and even discussed it privately with KJ. I was certain I understood correctly, I believe I even confirmed with HalfSmoke previously, but I was going to re-re-confirm before I started betting it. I am wondering if KJ might be thinking of certain situations that cross key numbers. I know there's a +EV situation that deals with that.
Thanks for the correction, Half smoke as to away dogs +3.5, not home dogs. Looks like I could just go with every away team and still be positive (based on these results). Since I need volume, that might be the way for me to go right now.
Since redietz is in hiding (and kew is simply The Joke) here's a pick on college football today.
Take Colorado and the points (+21) vs. Oregon. Aside from all the Deion Sanders/Colorado hype, Oregon hasn't played any real team so far.
And Colorado HAS played anyone?
Colorado will probably cover in a higher scoring game, but theywont seriously challenge. And even if Oregon is way overrated and not nearly as good as people think, Colorado will not do well against the first real team with a defense that they play.
Don't fall for the hype, old fella
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
Just to rub it in, Robert ... 35-0 at the half.
What, Me Worry?
Care to tap out now at halftime Ron? The score 35-0 doesn't even tell the whole story. Total yards 378-21.
I suppose it is possible Colorado cover with a couple late Td' s against the 3rd string, but it will probably be 50-0 by then.
Colorado is not a serious top team. They will win some games against some weaker teams and there are some in Pac-12, but Colorado will just not fair well against any team with a decent defense. Colorado's offensive line is horrible.Even Mahomes would look horrible behind a line like that.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
And no, I didn't bet Oregon. I don't like to lay 21 points even if I think it will probably be lopsided. Backdoor covers with scores against a 3rd string defense can kill ya.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
Nobody is perfect, not even you.
I see TV is hyping next week's game between Colorado and USC as "the game of the year:" gotta think they scripted that ad before the UofO blow out.
What, Me Worry?
How are you doing playing through the rollover requirements Axelwolf?
I was 25 games over .500 after the first couple weeks, thanks to Half smokes, "first 2 weeks NFL underdog' play, Druff fast NFL start, betting college football unders the first week (new college rules) and even my own picks. But that is dropping steadily now. I am 13 games above .500 as we speak. I am just trying to get through my rollover requirements over .500, as close to as possible as the real +EV is the bonus. I am burning through my rollover requirements pretty quickly, almost 50% through. I thought it would take until Thanksgiveing, but it may be earlier than that.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
.
quote Kewlj:
"I was 25 games over .500 after the first couple weeks, thanks to Half smokes, "first 2 weeks NFL underdog' play,"
if you or anyone else has any interest I am posting some NCAA and NFL picks on blackjacktheforum.com under the user name "drunk" in the Sports Picks thread
I will post next on Saturday - yesterday was my first week posting and I went 5-2
the NCAA picks involve some handicapping but the NFL picks are simply road underdogs that got 4 points or fewer - an idea I tweaked from Mike Shackleford showing that all road underdogs won at 2.57% after he tracked over 2,000 games
glta
.
please don't feed the trolls
Thanks. I will check it out each week. I am already on that road dogs angle. As you know, I mistakenly thought it was home dogs at the start before you cleared it up.
Just one caveat Half Smoke. Try not to actually be drunk when you make these picks . Although that might work just as well.
Last edited by kewlJ; 10-04-2023 at 09:18 AM.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
I put in a ton of action over the weekend. Was in California for a few days attending the Eagles game and hitting a couple casinos on the way home yesterday, so I just got around to checking how I did. It wasn't good.
I had a 25 win cushion after 2 weeks of the season and that cushion is now down to 2 (meaning 2 games over .500). I am almost 65% through my rollover playthrough requirements, so I need to stick at around .500 for that last 35% to show the profit from the bonuses that I am after. (slightly under .500 would be ok). But based on my results of the last 2 weeks, I need to be a little more selective and not just be blindly putting through action.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
He still can't resist pretending that he ever leaves the sewers or enters casinos other than to ply his trade (after taking a shower at the shelter or nearest open drainpipe so that he'll have a better chance hustling).
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas
Dude, your 3rd grade trolling and attacks of myself and a number of other real AP's and real players makes you so much more credible. NOT!!!
Have you just given up now? You can't make yourself more credible, because most of what you say is nonsense that all real players instantly recognize, so you spend your time trolling (on multiple forums) and hijacking legitimate gambling discussions, as if that buys you any credibility.
When was the last time you actually posted anything useful or that might be beneficial to any other players? Was there even a last time?
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas
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