Professional Sportsbetting

[MaxPen]

didn't football always have an even number of games in a season up until recently when they went to 17 games?

No

I'm not even into sports.

Oh really? Do tell.

There's really nothing to tell. The only team sport I enjoy watching is hockey. Therefore I don't know rules or details about them.

[1Hit1der]

It's one of those mathematical oddities. With 8-4 record you would be 4 units up but had you lost two more games you would be even.

An 82-80 team appears to be two games above .500 but had they lost just one more game they would be .500.

Looking at things in a relative, opposed to an absolute, way, is how the two-dice, two-envelope, and other thus paradoxes get going. We intuitively end up with abandoning one, or the other, way, and, so, never with the complete resolution of either.

[mickeycrimm]

It's one of those mathematical oddities. With 8-4 record you would be 4 units up but had you lost two more games you would be even.

An 82-80 team appears to be two games above .500 but had they lost just one more game they would be .500.

Looking at things in a relative, opposed to an absolute, way, is how the two-dice, two-envelope, and other thus paradoxes get going. We intuitively end up with abandoning one, or the other, way, and, so, never with the complete resolution of either.

Yeah, a lot of times in comes down to what question are you asking. Which of the below statements are true?

An 8-4 team is 2 games above .500.

An 8-4 team would need to lose 4 straight games to be at .500.

The answer is both statements are true.

[mickeycrimm]

In his book, Billy Walters has a system for calculating the strength of his plays. It is a "star system" but really just another way of calculating EV. He has a chart called "The Relative Value Of Each Point, NFL." You'll find the chart below. This is the chart that shows the chances of exactly hitting the spread. which we've had on here earlier. His "star system" looks like this. The higher the percentage the more he bets.:

5.5% = .5 star
7% = 1 star
9% = 1.5 stars
11% = 2 stars
13% = 2.5 stars
15% = 3 stars

So if Walters had a power ratings differential of 2.5 and the line is -4 he has a 1.5 star bet. This is how he calculates it. There are two pertinent numbers between his power ratings differential, 2.5, and the -4 line, the numbers 3 and 4. If his team loses by 3 he wins the bet. If his team loses by 4 he pushes the bet.

So from the chart he takes the 8% that the 3 is worth and adds half the value of the 4, 1.5% to it. So at 9.5% its a 1.5 star bet.

Looks like calculating EV to me.

[mickeycrimm]

After his two master class chapters Walters has a chapter called War Stories. For the 2009 super bowl he had a ratings differential of 2.5 points in favor of Pittsburgh over Arizona. The line was Pittsburgh -6.5. For betting purposes it's huge. He has the numbers 3, 4, 5, and 6 covered. 8% for the 3, 3% for the 4, 3% for the 5, and 5% for the 6. It's 19%, a very big 3 star play.

He bets 850K on Arizona +4 at halftime and 1.5 million on Arizona +6.5 for the game.

I'm sure some of you remember this play. With 18 seconds left in the half the score is Pittsburgh 10, Arizona 7. Arizona has the ball on the Pittsburgh 1 yard line ready to score. So Billy has the first half locked up....except....

Kurt Warner threw an interception to James Harrison in the end zone who went 100 yards to score for Pittsburgh.

A quote from Billy "As the record-setting one-hundred-yard interception return for a touchdown unfolded on the TV screen in our Las Vegas home, Susan and I could not believe that a 243 pound linebacker was traversing the entire length of the field with my pretty money in his arms."

Pittsburgh won the game 28-24 so Billy won the game bet.

Here's a video of that play:

[mickeycrimm]

Good try, though, mickey. Let me know when you find Walters using the term "Expected Value" in the book.

Let me know when you find Walters using the term "Opinion" in the book.

[AxelWolf]

Good try, though, mickey. Let me know when you find Walters using the term "Expected Value" in the book.

Let me know when you find Walters using the term "Opinion" in the book.

There might be some handicappers who don't want to use the term EV when it comes to handicapping, but the term EV can absolutely be used properly when talking about Professional Sportsbetting.

I guess we need a new term for handicappers EEV.

[kewlJ]

So I have deposited money back into 2 of the 4 sportsbooks I used earlier this fall accepting their new bonus offers. BTW, I never let them run dry as redietz claims.

Total I deposited 10k to get bonus amounts of $7500 with a 9x rollover. (8 at one, 10 at the other)

Redietz advised me against this, saying they will shut me down and take the money after my first go round at bonus whoring earlier this football season. We will see.

[mickeycrimm]

I just thought of something about these betting syndicates using other people's accounts (pay per head) to bet and then sharing the profit. Do they work rollover money in those accounts? It seems to me that might be their modus operandi.

[redietz]

So I have deposited money back into 2 of the 4 sportsbooks I used earlier this fall accepting their new bonus offers. BTW, I never let them run dry as redietz claims.

Total I deposited 10k to get bonus amounts of $7500 with a 9x rollover. (8 at one, 10 at the other)

Redietz advised me against this, saying they will shut me down and take the money after my first go round at bonus whoring earlier this football season. We will see.

Actually, what I said was that after half a dozen go-rounds, they will begin to shut you down. And if you think you are flying under any radar, you are crazy. Unless, of course, you are using multiple accounts, in which case if they catch you, they have the option of freezing or claiming your funds.

You never said, in any post I read, that you intended to keep 10% or 20% or more in any accounts, which is what I usually recommend. You presented your withdrawals as total, against which I recommend.

So, basically, you wound up doing a version of what I recommended, but decided I was "wrong."

LOL.

I think "AP" is short for "Addicted 'Perfessional.'"

I'll be in LV the third week in December. If anyone wants to debate "EV" on camera, email me. If anyone wants to preserve their precious anonymity (gag me with a spoon), we can do audio only.

[mickeycrimm]

Unabated has a pretty good clinic on football handicapping contests. You'll learn a hell of a lot more from them than you will off small timer, Bob Dietz. Unabated puts the information right on to your computer screen in your house. Unlike Deitz, who insists you travel a thousand miles to get an answer from him that may or may not be accurate.

https://unabated.com/articles/season...-contests-2023