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Thread: Professional Sportsbetting

  1. #441
    Originally Posted by Seedvalue View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    So we have this thread over in the sports section started by redietz a couple of years ago on "do not bet parlays." Here's the link:

    https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...ot-Bet-Parlays

    I just found this 18 minute video of VSIN interviewing South Pointe sportsbook manager Chris Andrews. Andrews explains that his reason for banning Fezzik was he was always trying to get in more action on parlay cards that Andrews wanted.

    Andrews talked about Fezzik betting parlay cards, not parlays off the board. And he referred to "dead numbers." I'm not sure but I think it means numbers that don't move. The numbers on parlay cards don't move.

    I'm trying to guess what Fezzik was doing. In the books I'm familiar with the football parlay cards come out on Wednesday. I've been told this is so the numbers get hammered into place before the cards are printed. But it's 3 or 4 days to game time depending on college or NFL. Plenty of time for lines to move on the board. I think Fezzik is exploiting the line moves on the board. Similar to steam betting. If the line was -3 on Wednesday but moves to -4 a couple days later I think he takes the -3 on the parlay card. Something like that. Anyone else have an opinion?

    Here's the 18 minute video:


    Good Lord, man. What Fezzik's doing was being done 40 years ago. On this forum, I actually laid this out years ago.

    I detailed my issues with The Stardust manager at the time, who followed me from window to window to make sure the $50 parlay card limit was enforced regarding me. And I was just doing it to kill time because I had to hold my seat for two to three hours before Saturday kickoffs. There were crews who went Boyd to Boyd to max bet the cards with various lineups. I wasn't trying to clobber anyone; I was (as the guy with the bottles on his fingers says in The Warriors) just having a good time.

    I described all of this years ago on this very forum.

    You guys are wild. Why do you think, when I put down parlay betting, I carefully describe off-the-board parlay betting as the problem with the use of parlay calculators? And I make exception for parlay card, frozen number, time-staggered betting?

    Mickey, if you haven't been paying attention, it's really not my responsibility.

    This is why asking questions of somebody who knows what they're talking about tends to be a positive thing.

    And in case you haven't figured it out, choosing games that are staggered in time provides the maximum flexibility. You can hedge or middle shoot with impunity while knowing your flow chart situation.

    This is retro stuff. It was being hammered to the max 40 years ago. This is what I mean when I say there was an entire massive sports gambling culture that you folks really have no sense of, and that culture has been doing just about everything you describe for decades and decades. You just haven't been paying attention. You think it's some moderne AP shit. LOL. You're behind the times, not ahead, guys.

    God, and the talk of trends (blah, blah, 53.8% betting road dogs by Shackleford for such-and-such). After the fact trends are, well, people have been using programs to data mine trends for 30-some years. Programs were running 24/7 for every sport decades ago. The national newsletter I was in for years, PlayBook, was famous for highlighting trends.

    McCusker referred to handicappers who relied heavily on such things as "trendsvestites." He coined that phrase in the 80's.

    What annoys me most is that I told that Stardust parlay card story multiple times on this forum spread over years, and now it's being presented as evidence of some nouveau AP angle. I also said that as sports betting spread, alleged "APs" were going to try to claim magical expertise and new techniques. What's they're doing, however, is largely old hat, given some super-powers via transient promotions and bonuses. The stuff is old as the hills, and it was old school handicappers who originally exploited it.

    I’m in hickory NC then off to Bristol come learn something Fraudulent mob guy

    Just tell me where and when in Bristol. If it doesn't overlap with the XFL, I'll wander on up. If I autograph a book, do you want "To Seed" or "To Mr. Value?"

    I'm no mob guy. I've just been around long enough to have seen a few things. Always helpful to have stayed next to the Stardust during the Lefty Rosenthal days. I lived three months during football season at the Convention Center Lodge for two or three years, and also spent two seasons directly behind the Stardust at the massive Budget Suites, which you would have appreciated as half the residents were girls working the clubs on Industrial. The pool and the workout room were quite a sight.

  2. #442
    Good Lord, man! Ditz was doing that 40 years ago. The nerve of anyone to bring it up. Aw, fuck. Get a life, people.

    Ditz, you just don't get that some people around here are trying to learn something about sports betting. And you just want to shit all over it. Get over yourself.

    You thinking that I should have been "paying attention" to everything you wrote years ago is arrogance personified. Fuck you, bitch.

    Your statement here: "What annoys me most is that I told that Stardust parlay card story multiple times on this forum spread over years, and now it's being presented as evidence of some nouveau AP angle."

    "Nouveau" means new or modern. First, Ditz, no one hangs on your every word. I wasn't reading all the shit you have written all these years. But everyone stand up and pay attention when Ditz speaks.

    Ditz, I'll gladly pay you $1000 if you can find any words I wrote that said this dead numbers on parlay cards thing was some new AP angle. It's an angle I just discovered. I said nothing about it being some new angle and you know that. You misrepresented the whole thing. That makes you a fucking liar.

    I'll be waiting for you to post up them words and get the 1K. tick....tock....tick....tock....tick....tock....
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  3. #443
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I lived three months during football season at the Convention Center Lodge for two or three years, and also spent two seasons directly behind the Stardust at the massive Budget Suites, which you would have appreciated as half the residents were girls working the clubs on Industrial. The pool and the workout room were quite a sight.
    I lived at Budget Suites behind the Stardust too. What I liked about the spot was there was no neighborhood around it so no crazies around at night.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  4. #444
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Good Lord, man! Ditz was doing that 40 years ago. The nerve of anyone to bring it up. Aw, fuck. Get a life, people.

    Ditz, you just don't get that some people around here are trying to learn something about sports betting. And you just want to shit all over it. Get over yourself.

    You thinking that I should have been "paying attention" to everything you wrote years ago is arrogance personified. Fuck you, bitch.

    Your statement here: "What annoys me most is that I told that Stardust parlay card story multiple times on this forum spread over years, and now it's being presented as evidence of some nouveau AP angle."

    "Nouveau" means new or modern. First, Ditz, no one hangs on your every word. I wasn't reading all the shit you have written all these years. But everyone stand up and pay attention when Ditz speaks.

    Ditz, I'll gladly pay you $1000 if you can find any words I wrote that said this dead numbers on parlay cards thing was some new AP angle. It's an angle I just discovered. I said nothing about it being some new angle and you know that. You misrepresented the whole thing. That makes you a fucking liar.

    I'll be waiting for you to post up them words and get the 1K. tick....tock....tick....tock....tick....tock....

    See, the thing about the title of the thread, "Professional sportsbetting," is that if you're a professional sports bettor, you know everything I just posted, and you knew it decades ago.

    Now, if the title of the thread were, "Amateur sportsbetting" or "Amateur sports bettors discuss professional sportsbetting," then the content in the thread makes sense.

    Kind of like if I started a thread "Professional machine play" and then babbled about stuff from 40 years ago while wondering out loud why someone was doing something that was explained by the fact that everyone had been doing it for 40 years.

    So I humbly suggest, given the content of the thread and the posters, that the title be changed to "Amateur sportsbetting" or "Amateur sports bettors discuss professional sportsbetting."

    Have a good one.

  5. #445
    Can you imagine if I started a "Professional Machine Playing" thread and then asked a question about 40-year-old Piggy Banking like, "I wonder if Fezzik is waiting for the bank to fill up before putting his money in the machine?"

    I'd be laughed out of the AP club.

    Then imagine if mickeycrimm had spelled out exactly how to play Piggy Banking multiple times going back years on the forum, and I'm acting like it's all a mystery.

  6. #446
    The thread is about professional sportsbetting so has the right title whether your cunt ass likes it or not.

    I'm still waiting for you to post up those words I supposedly used to say dead numbers on parlay cards is a new angle. An easy 1K for you....tick....tock....tick....tock....
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  7. #447
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Can you imagine if I started a "Professional Machine Playing" thread and then asked a question about 40-year-old Piggy Banking like, "I wonder if Fezzik is waiting for the bank to fill up before putting his money in the machine?" Then imagine if mickeycrimm had spelled out exactly how to play Piggy Banking multiple times going back years on the forum, and I'm acting like it's all a mystery.
    It's not a mystery to you, huh?

    What was the breakeven number on the Piggy Bankin'?

    What was the average number of spins it took to break the bank?

    What was the average cost to spin off a play?

    Remember, it's not a mystery to you.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  8. #448
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Can you imagine if I started a "Professional Machine Playing" thread and then asked a question about 40-year-old Piggy Banking like, "I wonder if Fezzik is waiting for the bank to fill up before putting his money in the machine?"

    I'd be laughed out of the AP club.

    Then imagine if mickeycrimm had spelled out exactly how to play Piggy Banking multiple times going back years on the forum, and I'm acting like it's all a mystery.
    This is actually some really funny shit by Ditz. Because I remember standing there, green as a greenhorn gambler can be, watching two guys work a bank of Piggy Bankin' and wondering "how high do they let the bank get before playing." I wasn't born with the knowledge. I was an amateur. But I learned thru observance.

    I have 1700 followers on Twitter. I get DM's and emails all the time by amateurs trying to learn strategic machine play. I've never once said "Kid, you don't know jackshit" or "There's a whole world your ignorant ass knows nothing about" or "I was doing this shit when you were shitting yellow, kid." I treat the novices with respect because I remember once being a novice wanting to learn.

    Redietz main character flaw is he doesn't remember being a novice. If you post anything up about sports betting he comes with "you don't know jackshit" and "There's a whole worrrrrrrrrld you know nothing about" and "I was doing this shit 40 yearrrrrrrrrs ago." He has no respect for anyone that is what HE used to be, an amateur. To him, anyone trying to learn is a know nothing idiot. In disrespecting people like that he disrespects himself.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  9. #449
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Can you imagine if I started a "Professional Machine Playing" thread and then asked a question about 40-year-old Piggy Banking like, "I wonder if Fezzik is waiting for the bank to fill up before putting his money in the machine?"

    I'd be laughed out of the AP club.

    Then imagine if mickeycrimm had spelled out exactly how to play Piggy Banking multiple times going back years on the forum, and I'm acting like it's all a mystery.
    But just like in sports, BJ, slots, and other games those types of things may only seem like "old news"

    And those who think like that are oftentimes missing out on the new Piggy Banking machines they disregard. The old Piggy Banking machines were perhaps worth a few hundred a day on average so the old-school guys scoff at the new ones, meanwhile, the people keeping and advancing learning new techniques on old-school type machines make serious money.

    Guys are making exponentially more on well-known Plays such as sports and slots, than guys from the past did.

    Sure, oftentimes the few that get in on something from the start make a killing until the holes get plugged, but nowadays there are soo many more opportunities and soo many more casinos, it's significantly better IF you are motivated and know what you're doing.

    I wish I was 22 and started in 2015 rather than starting in the 90's.

  10. #450
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    I wish I was 22
    Don't we all! Actually age 22, was my second year of blackjack play in Ac and I made $9800 or $9600, I forget. It was my single lowest income year, BUT I would redo starting from that point. Edit: I don't know maybe not. I would love to be 22 again, but maybe not the struggling red chip card counter in AC part.

    Not to hijack mickey's thread, but can anyone recommend a good sportsbook for low limit ($50-$100) baseball wagers? I would like to get away from oddsmaker who I have used for a number of years, as I had some payout difficulties with them. (Eventually got my withdrawals but it took many weeks and there was a charge for each withdrawal)

    I am just looking for a creditable site that is U.S. friendly, with a good reputation, easy deposit and withdrawal. Bonus would be nice, but not priority. I don't use bitcoin, so not interested in the bitcoin sportsbooks.
    Last edited by kewlJ; 03-29-2023 at 11:55 PM.

  11. #451
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    I wish I was 22
    Don't we all! Actually age 22, was my second year of blackjack play in Ac and I made $9800 or $9600, I forget. It was my single lowest income year, BUT I would redo starting from that point. Edit: I don't know maybe not. I would love to be 22 again, but maybe not the struggling red chip card counter in AC part.

    Not to hijack mickey's thread, but can anyone recommend a good sportsbook for low limit ($50-$100) baseball wagers? I would like to get away from oddsmaker who I have used for a number of years, as I had some payout difficulties with them. (Eventually got my withdrawals but it took many weeks and there was a charge for each withdrawal)

    I am just looking for a creditable site that is U.S. friendly, with a good reputation, easy deposit and withdrawal. Bonus would be nice, but not priority. I don't use bitcoin, so not interested in the bitcoin sportsbooks.
    Obviously, we all wish we were younger, but that's not what I was getting at.

    I just think there have actually been more lucrative plays in the last 13 years than in the previous 13. It's hard to really say for sure. I'm just not motivated to put in 12 hours a day nowadays.

  12. #452
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    I wish I was 22
    Don't we all! Actually age 22, was my second year of blackjack play in Ac and I made $9800 or $9600, I forget. It was my single lowest income year, BUT I would redo starting from that point. Edit: I don't know maybe not. I would love to be 22 again, but maybe not the struggling red chip card counter in AC part.

    Not to hijack mickey's thread, but can anyone recommend a good sportsbook for low limit ($50-$100) baseball wagers? I would like to get away from oddsmaker who I have used for a number of years, as I had some payout difficulties with them. (Eventually got my withdrawals but it took many weeks and there was a charge for each withdrawal)

    I am just looking for a creditable site that is U.S. friendly, with a good reputation, easy deposit and withdrawal. Bonus would be nice, but not priority. I don't use bitcoin, so not interested in the bitcoin sportsbooks.
    Check your PM's, perhaps your brother delete them. I'm almost certain it was he I was communicating with now. At the time It didn't dawn on me until he asked something Im certain you would've known and I started thinking about it.

  13. #453
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    I don't use bitcoin, so not interested in the bitcoin sportsbooks.
    WHY!!

    That's retarded. You give up soo much value not using BTC, up to 50% on your buy-ins. You can get a 100% using cash or 150-200% using crypto.

    It's also way more convenient. Once you start using it, it's basically the same as using PayPal or something like that. You can avoid market fluctuations if that is a concern. You just trade your BTC for a stablecoin or convert the BTC into your cash wallet until needed.

  14. #454
    .



    interesting article on touts

    Five Star Sports Picks is claiming 70% win rate on the NFL and college football last season

    that's unheard of and the Post implies that they are fudging their numbers

    their rep refused the Post request to provide a list of their picks

    "99% of pick sellers are scam artists preying on the vulnerable" says Jason Scott who oversees oddsmaking at BetMGM

    the other link - Betstamp - offers a free account - you can follow the picks of various picksters




    https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...g-picks-touts/



    https://betstamp.app/


    .
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 03-30-2023 at 02:23 AM.
    please don't feed the trolls

  15. #455
    .


    I think Betstamp is legit
    the Post article implied they were legit
    you find featured users under when you click on your username - and then "Find Bettors" - it took me quite a while to find this
    they show quite a few net losers
    most of the winners have a small r.o.i.
    very few have a high r.o.i. close to or over 10%

    one guy - "bonanza bets" has an incredible 57.9% r.o.i. - he's 138-255 - he must be betting big dogs on the money line - that one is hard to believe -
    but the rest of their tracking is believable

    they track an interesting stat which I've never seen before which they call "CLV"
    closing line value - the price a bettor got relative to the closing price

    "bonanza bets" got great prices - which may help explain his ridiculous r.o.i. - maybe he was fudging on the lines he was getting


    .
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 03-30-2023 at 03:34 AM.
    please don't feed the trolls

  16. #456
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    .



    interesting article on touts

    Five Star Sports Picks is claiming 70% win rate on the NFL and college football last season

    that's unheard of and the Post implies that they are fudging their numbers

    their rep refused the Post request to provide a list of their picks

    "99% of pick sellers are scam artists preying on the vulnerable" says Jason Scott who oversees oddsmaking at BetMGM

    the other link - Betstamp - offers a free account - you can follow the picks of various picksters




    https://www.washingtonpost.com/sport...g-picks-touts/



    https://betstamp.app/


    .
    Who's the best pure legitimate handicapper with verified stats over years with thousands of picks with obtainable lines? What % is he running at? 54% 55%, 57 %?? with the benefit of the doubt, he got a 6.5 when everywhere was actually 7.

    Now you get your picks after he and all his buddies slammed all the good lines.

    Now pay for those picks/services= YOU'RE FUCKED!! GG. GB.

  17. #457
    This kind of discussion demonstrates how little handle the posters here have on what's been done in the past historically and by individuals, what's been achieved by whom, what's considered possible and probable, and how few people do what.

    There is an entire culture of sports betting with a long history of who did what and you are not part of it or even dipping your toes in it. You have no knowledge of it.

    So why act as if you know what you're talking about? It's not as if the "AP" culture presented on forums is some big, established culture with its own verified, documented history. The "AP" culture is very small compared to the sports betting culture. The "AP" culture has fewer verifiable facts, of course. With no third parties keeping actual tabs on people's claims. The "AP" presentation is all fairy tales and anonymous narratives

    As far as sports betting goes, why act as if you know what you're talking about? Because you "know" a handful of bettors? Because you know a little math?

  18. #458
    What a clown. Pity, put on ignore, and move on. The dude can't even pay a $500 tax bill but posts pictures of cars that aren't even his.

    No one else has ever talked about the "culture" of APs. Culture as it pertains to a subset of advantage gambling is a pure Redietz construct. More fantasyland bullshit.

    The bozo couldn't even beat Rob in a creative writing contest.
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

  19. #459
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    The bozo couldn't even beat Rob in a creative writing contest.
    Is that what this forum is to you and a few others? See who can tell the biggest lies? That guy is the winner? No wonder this forum is what it is and no wonder more and more of these guys are coming out of the woodwork.

  20. #460
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post

    You give up soo much value not using BTC, up to 50% on your buy-ins. You can get a 100% using cash or 150-200% using crypto.
    why would the books be so generous if you use crypto____?

    what do they get out of it______?

    just curious______________________doesn't that make it a lot harder for them to beat the player____________?


    .
    please don't feed the trolls

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