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Thread: Professional Sportsbetting

  1. #161
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Again, the main question is:

    Handicappers can do every blessed thing "APs" do and have been doing them for decades. Arbitrage? Check. Middles shooting? Check. Bonus exploitation? Check. Using programs to monitor line moves to facilitate arbitrage and middles shooting? Check. Plus, handicappers know the teams. They also know the public, which means they have some non-zero effectiveness anticipating line shifts before they happen. Thus, the question becomes: What do "APs" think that they do that handicappers can't?
    "What do AP's think they can do that handicappers can't?" I question the premise of this statement. For some reason redietz is implying that AP's think they are better at betting sports than professional handicappers. Why the hell would any AP think that?
    A big part of the issue I had with Redietz is his mocking people who consistently beat sports. He has claimed it is near possible. It isn't a "I don't believe". It is a "that is impossible - sure they may win for short term but no long term winners beat more than one sport". Such garbage. He just acts like he knows more about +EV sports betting than the APs on here and that has shown to not be the case repeatedly. If he'd just stuck with handicapping +stories and not felt a need to insult everyone due to his gross insecurity then I'd had little issue with him.

    He literally mocks terminology used by pro-sports bettors who are well known and have been going at it for decades. Redietz seriously thinks he is the jedi-master of sports betting but very very little evidence supporting that.

    So now inorder to save face he has made a ton of strawmen. No one ever said handicappers don't exploit various angles. It would be a stupid thing to say but now Redietz has made it into a strawman and no one ever made the claim to begin with.

    He still has never said what he does that is not "lunch money". Tournaments? Is he saying that the "up top" prizes on tourneys are so big? I still have no clue. It is just a lot of insulting due to his insecurity. Then he annoys the fuck out of every AP and they deservedly pile on him.
    I wander through the path of life. Wondering. Wondering what my next signature on VCT should be.

  2. #162
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Again, the main question is:

    Handicappers can do every blessed thing "APs" do and have been doing them for decades. Arbitrage? Check. Middles shooting? Check. Bonus exploitation? Check. Using programs to monitor line moves to facilitate arbitrage and middles shooting? Check. Plus, handicappers know the teams. They also know the public, which means they have some non-zero effectiveness anticipating line shifts before they happen. Thus, the question becomes: What do "APs" think that they do that handicappers can't?
    Yeah, you tell those strawmen! You're giving them a real ass-kicking in this debate, I tell you.

    What non-sports focused AP is claiming to do anything handicappers can't vis-a-vis sports betting? I certainly haven't, nor have I seen anyone else do so.

  3. #163
    The real tragedy here is the constant use of the word "strawman" or even "strawmen".

  4. #164
    The usually very reasonable Redietz is arguing with everybody, and nobody, all at once. What word would you prefer?

  5. #165
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    The greatest handicapper of all time. Never lost. Redietz, can you tell me where this scene was filmed?

    It's been a week since I put this video up. No answer from redietz. I thought for sure redietz would be able to tell us where this scene in the movie Casino was filmed. In the first few seconds of the video they are walking in the door. Just to their left half the name of this famous book appears. You can see "ROY'S" but the full name was LEROY'S.

    Leroy's was located behind the Pioneer Casino on Casino Center Blvd a half block off Fremont Street. The Golden Nugget was across the street.

    I don't know for sure but Leroy's may have been the last stand alone book in LV. This movie scene is of historical significance because it captures what the inside of Leroy's looked like in 1995.

    I was in Las Vegas when Casino was being filmed. I remember seeing them shooting some scenes. When the movie came out I recognized where many of the scenes were filmed. Even the scenes that were supposed to be in Chicago in the winter were filmed in Las Vegas. They used special effects to make it look like Chicago.

    Leroy's had satellite books all around the state. They were bought out by William Hill in 2012.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 03-02-2023 at 02:03 PM.
    "The greatest trick the devil ever pulled is convincing people that sports betting is a contest of who knows the most about sports." Plus EV Analytics

  6. #166
    .


    a type of book called a betting exchange has been legalized in New Jersey - it is called Prophet Sports Betting Exchange

    it is similar to parimutuel wagering

    players bet against each other - it's called peer to peer wagering - the house takes only 2% from the winning bets - much less than the 10% from the traditional books

    this means the vig is only about 1% - lower than the lowest HA in any casino game

    this may be the wave of the future - I'm not sure about that - but there is no reason to limit any player since he's betting directly against other players

    the traditional books are limiting and hassling winning players

    the downside is they must match wagers within the same state - not all over the country - so, in the beginning there may not be a great deal of liquidity and a player may not be able to get the bets he wants

    very interesting - to me anyway




    https://prophetbettingexchange.com/education/


    .
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

  7. #167
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Again, the main question is:

    Handicappers can do every blessed thing "APs" do and have been doing them for decades. Arbitrage? Check. Middles shooting? Check. Bonus exploitation? Check. Using programs to monitor line moves to facilitate arbitrage and middles shooting? Check. Plus, handicappers know the teams. They also know the public, which means they have some non-zero effectiveness anticipating line shifts before they happen. Thus, the question becomes: What do "APs" think that they do that handicappers can't?
    "What do AP's think they can do that handicappers can't?" I question the premise of this statement. For some reason redietz is implying that AP's think they are better at betting sports than professional handicappers. Why the hell would any AP think that?
    A big part of the issue I had with Redietz is his mocking people who consistently beat sports. He has claimed it is near possible. It isn't a "I don't believe". It is a "that is impossible - sure they may win for short term but no long term winners beat more than one sport". Such garbage. He just acts like he knows more about +EV sports betting than the APs on here and that has shown to not be the case repeatedly. If he'd just stuck with handicapping +stories and not felt a need to insult everyone due to his gross insecurity then I'd had little issue with him.

    He literally mocks terminology used by pro-sports bettors who are well known and have been going at it for decades. Redietz seriously thinks he is the jedi-master of sports betting but very very little evidence supporting that.

    So now inorder to save face he has made a ton of strawmen. No one ever said handicappers don't exploit various angles. It would be a stupid thing to say but now Redietz has made it into a strawman and no one ever made the claim to begin with.

    He still has never said what he does that is not "lunch money". Tournaments? Is he saying that the "up top" prizes on tourneys are so big? I still have no clue. It is just a lot of insulting due to his insecurity. Then he annoys the fuck out of every AP and they deservedly pile on him.
    This deserves at 2nd and 3rd read along with a big gold star. It's spot on and along the same lines as my own thoughts, you articulated it well.

  8. #168
    .


    Mike Shackleford tracked the results of about 2,100 NFL games - see link - and found that the away underdog won 53.75 % with a positive 2.57% return

    I tweaked that and have tracked it for 4 years now and posted it elsewhere - the NFL regular season - away underdogs who got 4 points or less - NO HANDICAPPING AT ALL - pushes not considered


    the results:


    the NFL regular season away underdogs who got 4 points or less for the last 4 seasons won to the tune of 159-117 - 57.6% winners


    anybody who wants to can go back over this data at covers.com to verify it





    https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/


    .
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 03-03-2023 at 03:34 AM.
    Of course what I'm saying is true. I saw it ON THE INTERNET.

  9. #169
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Again, the main question is:

    Handicappers can do every blessed thing "APs" do and have been doing them for decades. Arbitrage? Check. Middles shooting? Check. Bonus exploitation? Check. Using programs to monitor line moves to facilitate arbitrage and middles shooting? Check. Plus, handicappers know the teams. They also know the public, which means they have some non-zero effectiveness anticipating line shifts before they happen. Thus, the question becomes: What do "APs" think that they do that handicappers can't?

    Fuck for 90 minutes without breaks

  10. #170
    No posts since yesterday?

    Why are you people taking your foot off of this confused hillbilly's neck? He's certainly not gonna let Dancer and the Munch take him apart.

  11. #171
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    No posts since yesterday?

    Why are you people taking your foot off of this confused hillbilly's neck? He's certainly not gonna let Dancer and the Munch take him apart.
    Same reason I haven't trolled you in some time.. we all need our rest.
    I wander through the path of life. Wondering. Wondering what my next signature on VCT should be.

  12. #172
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    No posts since yesterday?

    Why are you people taking your foot off of this confused hillbilly's neck? He's certainly not gonna let Dancer and the Munch take him apart.
    Same reason I haven't trolled you in some time.. we all need our rest.
    I can handle and indeed, welcome the trolling or whatever it's called. He can't.

  13. #173
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    No posts since yesterday?

    Why are you people taking your foot off of this confused hillbilly's neck? He's certainly not gonna let Dancer and the Munch take him apart.
    Name:  gGhlXFC.jpg
Views: 103
Size:  60.0 KB

  14. #174
    Hey, red, are you going to Bet Bash this year? It's going to be at Circa and D this year. Spanky, you know, the guy with the "cute anonymous nickname" is hosting it. Roxy will be there too. Here's an article on last year's Bet Bash:

    https://www.888casino.com/blog/bet-bash-las-vegas

    And here's the ad for this year's event:

    https://betbash.co/
    "The greatest trick the devil ever pulled is convincing people that sports betting is a contest of who knows the most about sports." Plus EV Analytics

  15. #175
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Hey, red, are you going to Bet Bash this year? It's going to be at Circa and D this year. Spanky, you know, the guy with the "cute anonymous nickname" is hosting it. Roxy will be there too. Here's an article on last year's Bet Bash:

    https://www.888casino.com/blog/bet-bash-las-vegas

    And here's the ad for this year's event:

    https://betbash.co/

    Mickey, you didn't post this ironically, did you?

    Do you know how oxymoronic it is for people to charge $350 for a seminar where "striving amateurs" get "unparalleled opportunities to learn sharp-betting secrets from winners and insiders"? Holy hell, that's bad ad copy. You have to ask yourself, why would people speak at such a thing?

    C'mon, man. There have been seminars like this for both sports and race (more for race, actually) going back 50 years. Let me know if Billy Walters is attending.

    Attending this thing isn't a mark of savvy. And being on the speakers' list isn't exactly a great thing, either, depending on the topics you cover.

    Now Roxy (I love how people use the short informal version, like "Vegas,") is great, but I suspect I know a little more about "Roxy" than you do. And my better half knows a helluva lot more about Roxy and his personal history than you do. Luck of the draw -- some folks hang out in the same places and all that.

    Mickey -- if you think I should be attending this event, I have news for you. I should not. Seriously. Now if you think attending this is a mark of expertise, how about giving a paper at the National Conference on Gambling and Risk-Taking, and then fielding questions after the paper and at a cocktail party afterwards and then having the paper published in the proceedings? If you consider waxing eloquent at this to be a big deal, how about holding forth at an actual vetted conference?

    I can't believe you are asking if I am attending this. Jesus, man. Wake up and smell the coffee and all that. I have always avoided this kind of thing like the plague. What's funny is that I remember about 10 years ago, the person in charge of a 50K a game cartel in LV heard Person B ask me if I wanted to attend a session of something similar to this. After Person B left, the cartel manager asked me "Weren't you offended by that? Doesn't he know who you are?"
    Last edited by redietz; 03-04-2023 at 07:22 AM.

  16. #176
    And don't be shy, mickey. If you have the time, pass along your post and my reply to GWAE.

    I should probably pitch attending Nike football coaching clinics as a reasonable alternative to this event. I do attend some of those.

  17. #177
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Hey, red, are you going to Bet Bash this year? It's going to be at Circa and D this year. Spanky, you know, the guy with the "cute anonymous nickname" is hosting it. Roxy will be there too. Here's an article on last year's Bet Bash:

    https://www.888casino.com/blog/bet-bash-las-vegas

    And here's the ad for this year's event:

    https://betbash.co/

    Mickey, you didn't post this ironically, did you?

    Do you know how oxymoronic it is for people to charge $350 for a seminar where "striving amateurs" get "unparalleled opportunities to learn sharp-betting secrets from winners and insiders"? Holy hell, that's bad ad copy. You have to ask yourself, why would people speak at such a thing?

    C'mon, man. There have been seminars like this for both sports and race (more for race, actually) going back 50 years. Let me know if Billy Walters is attending.

    Attending this thing isn't a mark of savvy. And being on the speakers' list isn't exactly a great thing, either, depending on the topics you cover.

    Now Roxy (I love how people use the short informal version, like "Vegas,") is great, but I suspect I know a little more about "Roxy" than you do. And my better half knows a helluva lot more about Roxy and his personal history than you do. Luck of the draw -- some folks hang out in the same places and all that.

    Mickey -- if you think I should be attending this event, I have news for you. I should not. Seriously. Now if you think attending this is a mark of expertise, how about giving a paper at the National Conference on Gambling and Risk-Taking, and then fielding questions after the paper and at a cocktail party afterwards and then having the paper published in the proceedings? If you consider waxing eloquent at this to be a big deal, how about holding forth at an actual vetted conference?

    I can't believe you are asking if I am attending this. Jesus, man. Wake up and smell the coffee and all that. I have always avoided this kind of thing like the plague. What's funny is that I remember about 10 years ago, the person in charge of a 50K a game cartel in LV heard Person B ask me if I wanted to attend a session of something similar to this. After Person B left, the cartel manager asked me "Weren't you offended by that? Doesn't he know who you are?"
    Wow ! Awesome ! Managing to drop in a Billy Walters reference.

    Funny how Redietz has to fall back on attacking bet bash. $350 could be used to.. uhm.. pay one's property taxes. Why would he spend it on this?

    I think Mickey's point was more how clueless you are when you dogged on Spanky for being anonymous. Spanky getting out there far more than you.

    And You? You're hanging out in the dark corners of gambling forums being a grade-A weirdo.
    I wander through the path of life. Wondering. Wondering what my next signature on VCT should be.

  18. #178
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Hey, red, are you going to Bet Bash this year? It's going to be at Circa and D this year. Spanky, you know, the guy with the "cute anonymous nickname" is hosting it. Roxy will be there too. Here's an article on last year's Bet Bash:

    https://www.888casino.com/blog/bet-bash-las-vegas

    And here's the ad for this year's event:

    https://betbash.co/

    Mickey, you didn't post this ironically, did you?

    Do you know how oxymoronic it is for people to charge $350 for a seminar where "striving amateurs" get "unparalleled opportunities to learn sharp-betting secrets from winners and insiders"? Holy hell, that's bad ad copy. You have to ask yourself, why would people speak at such a thing?

    C'mon, man. There have been seminars like this for both sports and race (more for race, actually) going back 50 years. Let me know if Billy Walters is attending.

    Attending this thing isn't a mark of savvy. And being on the speakers' list isn't exactly a great thing, either, depending on the topics you cover.

    Now Roxy (I love how people use the short informal version, like "Vegas,") is great, but I suspect I know a little more about "Roxy" than you do. And my better half knows a helluva lot more about Roxy and his personal history than you do. Luck of the draw -- some folks hang out in the same places and all that.

    Mickey -- if you think I should be attending this event, I have news for you. I should not. Seriously. Now if you think attending this is a mark of expertise, how about giving a paper at the National Conference on Gambling and Risk-Taking, and then fielding questions after the paper and at a cocktail party afterwards and then having the paper published in the proceedings? If you consider waxing eloquent at this to be a big deal, how about holding forth at an actual vetted conference?

    I can't believe you are asking if I am attending this. Jesus, man. Wake up and smell the coffee and all that. I have always avoided this kind of thing like the plague. What's funny is that I remember about 10 years ago, the person in charge of a 50K a game cartel in LV heard Person B ask me if I wanted to attend a session of something similar to this. After Person B left, the cartel manager asked me "Weren't you offended by that? Doesn't he know who you are?"
    Wow ! Awesome ! Managing to drop in a Billy Walters reference.

    Funny how Redietz has to fall back on attacking bet bash. $350 could be used to.. uhm.. pay one's property taxes. Why would he spend it on this?

    I think Mickey's point was more how clueless you are when you dogged on Spanky for being anonymous. Spanky getting out there far more than you.

    And You? You're hanging out in the dark corners of gambling forums being a grade-A weirdo.


    Yeah, Spanky's a real Hall of Famer. Strikes so much fear into the hearts of bookmakers that he's hosting a sports betting seminar.

    As they say on ESPN, c'mon, man!

    And I'm actually a Spanky fan now that I saw his reaction to being limited. He sounds like us here in IntegritySports-ville.

    You know what we used to do to just as a way to be pains-in-the-ass? Just to be maroons? If we were in town for something like March Madness, we'd pick some Godforsaken longshot and one of us would go to a window and try to bet a couple hundred. Inevitably, the window person would have to say, "Key!" and then get a manager. In the meantime, the person at the window would berate the sports book, "Caesars' Palace!?! This is Caesars Palace and you need to check to take $300 on Belmont? What's the matter with you? Thirty years ago, they'd hand us a wheelbarrow to bet this!" Then the manager would come and limit the bet and the bettor would shake his head and comment some more.

    And then two minutes later, one of us would go to another window and try to make a similar bet on the same team. And berate them some more.

    Just to be asses. And to point out, over and over, that the proper response to trying to bet Belmont at 1000-1 isn't "Key!" but "Sir, how much do you want to bet? Do you need a wheelbarrow? A truck?"

    I could be wrong, but I think Spanky would be the kind of guy who would get a kick out of doing that with us..

  19. #179
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post


    Mickey, you didn't post this ironically, did you?

    Do you know how oxymoronic it is for people to charge $350 for a seminar where "striving amateurs" get "unparalleled opportunities to learn sharp-betting secrets from winners and insiders"? Holy hell, that's bad ad copy. You have to ask yourself, why would people speak at such a thing?

    C'mon, man. There have been seminars like this for both sports and race (more for race, actually) going back 50 years. Let me know if Billy Walters is attending.

    Attending this thing isn't a mark of savvy. And being on the speakers' list isn't exactly a great thing, either, depending on the topics you cover.

    Now Roxy (I love how people use the short informal version, like "Vegas,") is great, but I suspect I know a little more about "Roxy" than you do. And my better half knows a helluva lot more about Roxy and his personal history than you do. Luck of the draw -- some folks hang out in the same places and all that.

    Mickey -- if you think I should be attending this event, I have news for you. I should not. Seriously. Now if you think attending this is a mark of expertise, how about giving a paper at the National Conference on Gambling and Risk-Taking, and then fielding questions after the paper and at a cocktail party afterwards and then having the paper published in the proceedings? If you consider waxing eloquent at this to be a big deal, how about holding forth at an actual vetted conference?

    I can't believe you are asking if I am attending this. Jesus, man. Wake up and smell the coffee and all that. I have always avoided this kind of thing like the plague. What's funny is that I remember about 10 years ago, the person in charge of a 50K a game cartel in LV heard Person B ask me if I wanted to attend a session of something similar to this. After Person B left, the cartel manager asked me "Weren't you offended by that? Doesn't he know who you are?"
    Wow ! Awesome ! Managing to drop in a Billy Walters reference.

    Funny how Redietz has to fall back on attacking bet bash. $350 could be used to.. uhm.. pay one's property taxes. Why would he spend it on this?

    I think Mickey's point was more how clueless you are when you dogged on Spanky for being anonymous. Spanky getting out there far more than you.

    And You? You're hanging out in the dark corners of gambling forums being a grade-A weirdo.


    Yeah, Spanky's a real Hall of Famer. Strikes so much fear into the hearts of bookmakers that he's hosting a sports betting seminar.

    As they say on ESPN, c'mon, man!

    And I'm actually a Spanky fan now that I saw his reaction to being limited. He sounds like us here in IntegritySports-ville.

    You know what we used to do to just as a way to be pains-in-the-ass? Just to be maroons? If we were in town for something like March Madness, we'd pick some Godforsaken longshot and one of us would go to a window and try to bet a couple hundred. Inevitably, the window person would have to say, "Key!" and then get a manager. In the meantime, the person at the window would berate the sports book, "Caesars' Palace!?! This is Caesars Palace and you need to check to take $300 on Belmont? What's the matter with you? Thirty years ago, they'd hand us a wheelbarrow to bet this!" Then the manager would come and limit the bet and the bettor would shake his head and comment some more.

    And then two minutes later, one of us would go to another window and try to make a similar bet on the same team. And berate them some more.

    Just to be asses. And to point out, over and over, that the proper response to trying to bet Belmont at 1000-1 isn't "Key!" but "Sir, how much do you want to bet? Do you need a wheelbarrow? A truck?"

    I could be wrong, but I think Spanky would be the kind of guy who would get a kick out of doing that with us..
    I would get a kick out of watching you guys bend over and get pegged with a strap on while you watch Kewj baby bro bounce on his lap. Thatís seems about what you do

  20. #180
    Originally Posted by Seedvalue View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post

    Wow ! Awesome ! Managing to drop in a Billy Walters reference.

    Funny how Redietz has to fall back on attacking bet bash. $350 could be used to.. uhm.. pay one's property taxes. Why would he spend it on this?

    I think Mickey's point was more how clueless you are when you dogged on Spanky for being anonymous. Spanky getting out there far more than you.

    And You? You're hanging out in the dark corners of gambling forums being a grade-A weirdo.


    Yeah, Spanky's a real Hall of Famer. Strikes so much fear into the hearts of bookmakers that he's hosting a sports betting seminar.

    As they say on ESPN, c'mon, man!

    And I'm actually a Spanky fan now that I saw his reaction to being limited. He sounds like us here in IntegritySports-ville.

    You know what we used to do to just as a way to be pains-in-the-ass? Just to be maroons? If we were in town for something like March Madness, we'd pick some Godforsaken longshot and one of us would go to a window and try to bet a couple hundred. Inevitably, the window person would have to say, "Key!" and then get a manager. In the meantime, the person at the window would berate the sports book, "Caesars' Palace!?! This is Caesars Palace and you need to check to take $300 on Belmont? What's the matter with you? Thirty years ago, they'd hand us a wheelbarrow to bet this!" Then the manager would come and limit the bet and the bettor would shake his head and comment some more.

    And then two minutes later, one of us would go to another window and try to make a similar bet on the same team. And berate them some more.

    Just to be asses. And to point out, over and over, that the proper response to trying to bet Belmont at 1000-1 isn't "Key!" but "Sir, how much do you want to bet? Do you need a wheelbarrow? A truck?"

    I could be wrong, but I think Spanky would be the kind of guy who would get a kick out of doing that with us..
    I would get a kick out of watching you guys bend over and get pegged with a strap on while you watch Kewj baby bro bounce on his lap. Thatís seems about what you do

    No, Seed, what we do is things like lay -124 with Seattle on the ML in the XFL, which I reported on this forum as soon as I did it on 2/27. Now check out the ML.

    You know, it's funny. The four things I reported on this forum in the last six months and recommended people do -- well, the football futures, depending on when you hedged, either won, lost, or washed a unit or so. Everything else, the bulk baseball betting last summer (+7 1/2 to 8 1/2 units depending on line), the bulk road favorite NBA recommendations for a few days, or this XFL ML, all solid profits with no sweating involved. Did anyone notice? Of course not. You have idiot trolls populating this place. And that doesn't include my recommendations for the WagerBacks at NorthBet, which by the way likely got me banned from WagerBacks at Northbet.

    And what recommendations lost? Well, none, really. How about that?

    No, don't thank me. We weirdos like to give away money. It's what we handicappers do.

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