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Thread: Professional Sportsbetting

  1. #1021
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    HEDGING IS THE DEVIL!!
    And, brute force is the God, in terms of a theory of everything, which is the flip side of finesse as gain by small wins/losses, in terms of optimization (by randomization).

    As evidenced by your numerals, today ...


    monet
    monet is offline
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    7,091 ------------------> 7,091 = {7000 + [3^2 * antilog(0^0)] + 1} ---> 731, or 137, and, 7,091 = 1013*7 ---> 1/137, or 1/731.


    225 = 15^2 ---> 152 ---> 1/153
    Last edited by Gottlob1; 09-17-2023 at 01:38 PM.
    Garnabby + OppsIdidItAgain + ThomasClines (or TomasHClines) + The Grim Reaper + LMR + OneHitWonder + Bill Yung + 1HitWonder ---> GOTTLOB1 = Praise to God!

    Blog at https://garnabby.blogspot.com/2023/08/blog-post.html

  2. #1022
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Is in-game betting considered a reasonable hedge for traditional betting ?
    Example: You place a moneyline bet for an NFL game. Your team is losing as the first half approaches the end, so you place an in-game moneyline bet for the other team prior to the start of the 2nd half such that the amount wagered for the in-game bet offsets the loss on the traditional pre-game bet if your team should lose. I'm thinking this could be a tool for avoiding a large loss by taking a smaller loss via the in-game insurance hedge.
    HEDGING IS THE DEVIL!!

    My girlfriend, who was in charge of a high stakes sports betting LV cartel, says "Hedging is for wienies!"

    I hedge a lot. The older I get, the more I've hedged. It's a sign of weakness, old age, and paranoia. Sometimes, as in UMass at halftime yesterday, I hedge because I am literally going blind watching the ugliness and stupidity of a game and cannot stomach the fact that I have the team I have. I wasted half a bet on a hedge yesterday because watching Eastern Mich/UMass was mind numbing. The solution, of course, is don't watch the unwatchable.
    You haven't yet realized that as soon as you claim "my girlfriend" (), "my friend", "my cousin" etc. etc. etc. "used to be", "currently is", or "knows the person in charge there" etc. etc. etc......it's seen as complete bullshit??

    You and kew were made for each other. Right down to the loafers without socks.

  3. #1023
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by monet View Post

    HEDGING IS THE DEVIL!!

    My girlfriend, who was in charge of a high stakes sports betting LV cartel, says "Hedging is for wienies!"

    I hedge a lot. The older I get, the more I've hedged. It's a sign of weakness, old age, and paranoia. Sometimes, as in UMass at halftime yesterday, I hedge because I am literally going blind watching the ugliness and stupidity of a game and cannot stomach the fact that I have the team I have. I wasted half a bet on a hedge yesterday because watching Eastern Mich/UMass was mind numbing. The solution, of course, is don't watch the unwatchable.
    You haven't yet realized that as soon as you claim "my girlfriend" (), "my friend", "my cousin" etc. etc. etc. "used to be", "currently is", or "knows the person in charge there" etc. etc. etc......it's seen as complete bullshit??

    You and kew were made for each other. Right down to the loafers without socks.



    LOL. Right.

    If you find any photos of me not wearing socks, I'll buy you a Newell. I always wear socks. It's from viewing Gentlemen's Gazette videos.

    If you could actually disprove anything I've said, it would be a first.

    It's funny you look askance about someone running a high stakes sports betting cartel in LV. The cartel was composed of a certain family of your folks.

  4. #1024
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post


    My girlfriend, who was in charge of a high stakes sports betting LV cartel, says "Hedging is for wienies!"

    I hedge a lot. The older I get, the more I've hedged. It's a sign of weakness, old age, and paranoia. Sometimes, as in UMass at halftime yesterday, I hedge because I am literally going blind watching the ugliness and stupidity of a game and cannot stomach the fact that I have the team I have. I wasted half a bet on a hedge yesterday because watching Eastern Mich/UMass was mind numbing. The solution, of course, is don't watch the unwatchable.
    You haven't yet realized that as soon as you claim "my girlfriend" (), "my friend", "my cousin" etc. etc. etc. "used to be", "currently is", or "knows the person in charge there" etc. etc. etc......it's seen as complete bullshit??

    You and kew were made for each other. Right down to the loafers without socks.



    LOL. Right.

    If you find any photos of me not wearing socks, I'll buy you a Newell. I always wear socks. It's from viewing Gentlemen's Gazette videos.

    If you could actually disprove anything I've said, it would be a first.

    It's funny you look askance about someone running a high stakes sports betting cartel in LV. The cartel was composed of a certain family of your folks.
    Which rub and tug was she working in.
    "I'm surprised you don't know that. Stunned is a bettor word." Bob "That's Over The Line" Dietz

  5. #1025
    That was over the line and inappropriate, mickey crimm. I must formally withdraw that posted offer to fly you to the book club meeting here, and I must formally demand that you apologize.

    If you don't apologize, I will stop participating here immediately. You need to learn some respect for people who have accomplished more than you gambling and who have earned their expertise. And I'm not talking about me.

  6. #1026
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    If you don't apologize, I will stop participating here immediately.
    Is that a legit promise, or a tewlj promise?

  7. #1027
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    That was over the line and inappropriate, mickey crimm. I must formally withdraw that posted offer to fly you to the book club meeting here, and I must formally demand that you apologize.

    If you don't apologize, I will stop participating here immediately. You need to learn some respect for people who have accomplished more than you gambling and who have earned their expertise. And I'm not talking about me.
    Which would you say is more over the line?

    Insulting someone that you don't even know exists?

    Or threatening to kill another member of the forum?

    Don't let the door hit you where the dog should have bit you.
    "I'm surprised you don't know that. Stunned is a bettor word." Bob "That's Over The Line" Dietz

  8. #1028
    Originally Posted by DGenBen View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Originally Posted by monet View Post

    HEDGING IS THE DEVIL!!
    True, but I am going to hell anyway.

    If you are Iíve heard that hand baskets are the best way to travel there.

    Hand baskets are not very common these days though so I wonder if anyone is planning a better mode of getting there for these modern times?

    Maybe in a 0 emissions EV or a gender neutral bicycle.
    Two worthy responses here from tableplay and DGenBen.
    Well Done, Fellas.
    My dad used the hell in a handbasket saying all the time.
    Good Memories.

  9. #1029
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Originally Posted by tableplay View Post
    Is in-game betting considered a reasonable hedge for traditional betting ?
    Example: You place a moneyline bet for an NFL game. Your team is losing as the first half approaches the end, so you place an in-game moneyline bet for the other team prior to the start of the 2nd half such that the amount wagered for the in-game bet offsets the loss on the traditional pre-game bet if your team should lose. I'm thinking this could be a tool for avoiding a large loss by taking a smaller loss via the in-game insurance hedge.
    HEDGING IS THE DEVIL!!

    My girlfriend, who was in charge of a high stakes sports betting LV cartel, says "Hedging is for wienies!"

    I hedge a lot. The older I get, the more I've hedged. It's a sign of weakness, old age, and paranoia. Sometimes, as in UMass at halftime yesterday, I hedge because I am literally going blind watching the ugliness and stupidity of a game and cannot stomach the fact that I have the team I have. I wasted half a bet on a hedge yesterday because watching Eastern Mich/UMass was mind numbing. The solution, of course, is don't watch the unwatchable.
    I am a firm believer in making the bets and going to sleep right before game time.
    Sometimes I watch as you all know because I will share my experience with you live and in person.
    But the go to sleep right before game time is by far the best strategy.
    Make sure you sleep through the entire game.
    And never hedge.
    Middling is ok, that's different.
    Inside Information is where the real money is at.
    Or crazy promotions which are harder to come by these days.

  10. #1030
    And yours, of course. Ha.


    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Two worthy responses here from tableplay and DGenBen.
    Well Done, Fellas.
    My dad used the hell in a handbasket saying all the time.
    Good Memories.
    ---> Hatemonger: Stephen Miller, Donald Trump, and the White Nationalist Agenda.

    https://anagram-solver.net/Two%20wor....?partial=true


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    Basket case, Trump, gearing up for another bout of lunacy.


    Gottlob1 Gottlob1 is offline
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    228 ----------------> 228 = 114*(1 + 1) ---> 114_411
    Last edited by Gottlob1; 09-18-2023 at 02:37 AM.
    Garnabby + OppsIdidItAgain + ThomasClines (or TomasHClines) + The Grim Reaper + LMR + OneHitWonder + Bill Yung + 1HitWonder ---> GOTTLOB1 = Praise to God!

    Blog at https://garnabby.blogspot.com/2023/08/blog-post.html

  11. #1031
    Originally Posted by monet View Post
    Middling is ok, that's different.
    I'd imagine that in-game betting makes this method more common than it used to be before in-game betting was offered (for example a conventional pre-game bet w/ spread, followed by an appropriately sized in-game bet with different spread for the other team).

  12. #1032
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    That was over the line and inappropriate, mickey crimm. I must formally withdraw that posted offer to fly you to the book club meeting here, and I must formally demand that you apologize.

    If you don't apologize, I will stop participating here immediately. You need to learn some respect for people who have accomplished more than you gambling and who have earned their expertise. And I'm not talking about me.
    Serious question: Has anyone who’s said they are not going to participate in this forum anymore ever actually stopped participating?

  13. #1033
    Originally Posted by DGenBen View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    That was over the line and inappropriate, mickey crimm. I must formally withdraw that posted offer to fly you to the book club meeting here, and I must formally demand that you apologize.

    If you don't apologize, I will stop participating here immediately. You need to learn some respect for people who have accomplished more than you gambling and who have earned their expertise. And I'm not talking about me.
    Serious question: Has anyone who’s said they are not going to participate in this forum anymore ever actually stopped participating?
    No AFAIK but Tasha put in a very respectable four months or something like that.

  14. #1034
    Lots of minor members silently split, without per se saying so, say, after calling the place a urinal or whatever.

    I recall that Slingshot, a regular, spoke, on the end, of a gardening forum where people treated each other in a proper way. His tenth last post was https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...829#post126829 . His last post, two and a half months later, was https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...865#post129865 .

    And, of course, LarryS, who wrote that the police advised him to stop posting, given that LarryS thought that persons online did damage to his car.

    As for Tasha, she held out until Dan gestured that he would reinstall her full posting rights.


    P.S. Regardless, it's my final forum, ever! Ha. I gradually began to see the pointlessness of even the professional forums. Not really proving anything.
    Last edited by Gottlob1; 09-18-2023 at 08:33 AM.
    Garnabby + OppsIdidItAgain + ThomasClines (or TomasHClines) + The Grim Reaper + LMR + OneHitWonder + Bill Yung + 1HitWonder ---> GOTTLOB1 = Praise to God!

    Blog at https://garnabby.blogspot.com/2023/08/blog-post.html

  15. #1035
    Originally Posted by Gottlob1 View Post
    Lots of minor members silently split, without per se saying so, say, after calling the place a urinal or whatever.
    .
    This is a great analogy about modern America. No one wants to stick around to clean the goddam urinal anymore. They have no pride.

    Cowards.
    VCT - the finest of all sites with only the finest gamblers one will ever encounter. Book it.

  16. #1036
    Two interesting outcomes to football games over the weekend that I was involved in. One I benefited from and won, one I lost.

    1). Western Michigan +28 vs Iowa. Iowa led 34-10when they got the ball back with 1 minute left. I was expecting and certainly hoping they would take a knee for 2 plays as 99.9% of teams would have done. Instead they threw 3 straight passes to score a touchdown with 33 seconds remaining and cover. I lost.

    2). La Rams +7.5 vs 49ers. 49ers kicked a field goal to go up 10 with 2 minutes left. Rams got the ball back with 1.56 remaining, needing a field goal and touch down to win the game, but either score would win my bet. Most teams needing 2 scores like this will drive the field as quickly as possible and if they haven't scored a TD, will kick the field goal with 40 seconds or so left, giving themselves time to recover an onsides kick and throw a couple hail Mary's to try to tie the game.

    The Rams drove the field using up the entire clock. They got to the 15 yard line with 4 seconds remaining. With time for one play I (and announcers) suspected they would just try to score the touchdown. To my surprise they brought out the field goal unit and kicked a field goal on the last play to cut the score to 30-23 making my +7.5 a winner.

    Both these outcomes seemed rather unusual and seemed like there was intent to cover spreads (at least from where I was sitting). There was a possible reason for Rams kicking the field goal as score differential in head to head match up is a tie breaker, if the two teams ended up tied in the division, but that tie breaker is quite a ways down on the tie breaker list.

    Anyway just a couple outcomes that make betting football interesting.

  17. #1037
    And for those that are doing some volume betting to play through bonus rollover requirements as I am doing, and I know some others like Axelwolf are doing, if you are using some of the methods described here to pick your plays, you are off to a good start.

    Halfsmoke described a system where betting underdog with points for the first two weeks of NFL has been a winner dating back a number of years now. To date this year 19-11 with 2 games remaining.

    Dan Druff is off to another quick NFL start @ 6-1 (although I missed one of his plays so I am 5-1).

    Last week I played 22 college games playing the under based on the running clock rule change and went 14-8. I intended to play that same angle this week, but was out late Friday night and didn't get my bets in, so I skipped it. Not sure how it went. I had figured this was good for 2-3 weeks until books realized the effect was a little more than first thought. Undecided if I will go for one more week at this angle.

    38-20 for just these 3 angles which is a good start. Of course the +EV is from the bonus money, and you hope to get through the rollover close to even, so this start is just a pleasant extra.

    Since several of these angles were only for first couple of weeks, now need to figure a new way to make picks to hopefully continue to at least break over while I work through the rollover. Hopefully Druff stays hot. Axelwolf, how are you doing since it seems you are pretty much doing the same thing?

  18. #1038
    By the way, not all angles are winning. I have also played an angle betting the over in baseball games with an over/under of 7.5. I believe this is also a halfsmoke angle that has shown to be profitable over several years. While I have done it over the last 2 weeks, this angle is only 4-7 in a small sample size.

    But again, the goal is to get some high volume of wagers in while coming close to breaking even, so EV from the bonuses kick in and it has been a good September so far.

  19. #1039
    UNKewlJ done a little studying up on sports betting, so that he may pretend to be involved with that, since his blackjack fable blew up.

    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    I don't believe any part of your backroom story and I'm skeptical about 75% of everything else.
    I tell you itís wonderful to be here, man. I donít give a damn who wins or loses. Itís just wonderful to be here with you people.

    MDawg Adventures carry on at: https://www.truepassage.com/forums/f.../46-IPlayVegas

  20. #1040
    Mdog, are you really THIS insecure, that you need to comment and lie about everything I post and share? I mean really...just grow the fuck up. Just continue to tell your little 'story' and stop obsessing about me.

    Not that it matters, but nothing about my blackjack play has blown up. I continue to make a living from advantage play, mostly blackjack. Nothing you say or lie about changes that.

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