You know nothing about NBA handicapping. You know nothing about the two teams involved. You see these lines for a game.
Would you be inclined to make a bet?
If so which bet would you make?
Caesars is the 2.5 line. The other books are Bet365, Fan Duel, BetMGM, Points Bet, Bet Rivers.
Last edited by mickeycrimm; 02-24-2024 at 01:14 PM.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
The proper answer is that you should try to middle it. The other questions mickey asked, if you're smart, have no obvious answers. To even begin to address mickey's questions, you need to know (1) who made the Caesars' bet(s) or skipped Caesars as a bet and (2) the relative volume of money bet at all of the sports books mentioned, in other words, how much is anchoring the lines. You also need to know (3) the time of day and (4) the time each book opened or will open. And that's just the beginning. You also need to know, in terms of injury updates, does Caesars generally beat the others to the punch or does it lag?
These are obvious questions. And then you get to the meta-questions. And you know what, I'm not getting paid for this, so ship me a sawbuck if you want the meta-questions. LOL.
You guys are a tribute to the line about a little knowledge (very little) being a dangerous thing.
Is this a trick question?Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I would quickly bet the favorite at Caesars, then a lesser amount on the dog at another book where I'm funded (preferably one of the +4.5 -110 options). I avoided registering at Points Bet because it reminds me of peanut butter.
What would you do?
That's the joke.
The correct spelling wouldn't be funny.
Yes, a trick question. You don't need to know all that shit redietz listed to middle it.Originally Posted by Don PerignomIs this a trick question?Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
I would quickly bet the favorite at Caesars, then a lesser amount on the dog at another book where I'm funded (preferably one of the +4.5 -110 options). I avoided registering at Points Bet because it reminds me of peanut butter.
What would you do?
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
NOT professional by any means, but I am nearing the end of my second round of sports-betting bonus whoring. The first round, this fall with football was okay. Started off real strong with a couple amazing weeks, thanks to some specific angles but then faded to finish below .500. The bonus amounts still made it a nice profit.
This round is a little smaller amounts involved. I started out running just about .500 for the final weeks of football, but when I got into basketball, especially college, I have done fantastic. Red, says college basketball is nearly impossible to win at, so I am assuming I have just been lucky. been playing two angles that I read about that have worked out nicely.
1) is top 10 teams playing on the road against an unranked opponent. Bet the home unranked opponent on the money line. My record on these games is almost 45% hit rate and at odds that average probably close to +200 (haven't added it up).
Angle 2, is half time unders. I am not blindly betting the unders, I am looking at PACE numbers for each team, but you can usually find a few games each day that the over/under looks high. Even an over under of 130 can be high for some of these games. And by betting the half under instead of the game, you cut out those games that are semi-close at the end with all the fouling and 15 points scored in the final minute. Betting the half, teams will hold for the final shot with under 30 seconds left. 1 shot in the final half minute as opposed to 8 possession's and 5 fouls at the end of a game.
I probably should add I didn't read about and start betting this unranked home ML angle until we well into the season....Into the conference part of the season. I think if you did this with those 'cupcake" top 10 teams vs sisters of the blind type games in November, you would get crushed.
Last edited by kewlJ; 02-24-2024 at 03:25 PM.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
I wish you guys would occasionally paraphrase me at least in the ballpark. Or quote me. Not make stuff up.Originally Posted by kewlJNOT professional by any means, but I am nearing the end of my second round of sports-betting bonus whoring. The first round, this fall with football was okay. Started off real strong with a couple amazing weeks, thanks to some specific angles but then faded to finish below .500. The bonus amounts still made it a nice profit.
This round is a little smaller amounts involved. I started out running just about .500 for the final weeks of football, but when I got into basketball, especially college, I have done fantastic. Red, says college basketball is nearly impossible to win at, so I am assuming I have just been lucky. been playing two angles that I read about that have worked out nicely.
1) is top 10 teams playing on the road against an unranked opponent. Bet the home unranked opponent on the money line. My record on these games is almost 45% hit rate and at odds that average probably close to +200 (haven't added it up).
Angle 2, is half time unders. I am not blindly betting the unders, I am looking at PACE numbers for each team, but you can usually find a few games each day that the over/under looks high. Even an over under of 130 can be high for some of these games. And by betting the half under instead of the game, you cut out those games that are semi-close at the end with all the fouling and 15 points scored in the final minute. Betting the half, teams will hold for the final shot with under 30 seconds left. 1 shot in the final half minute as opposed to 8 possession's and 5 fouls at the end of a game.
I probably should add I didn't read about and start betting this unranked home ML angle until we well into the season....Into the conference part of the season. I think if you did this with those 'cupcake" top 10 teams vs sisters of the blind type games in November, you would get crushed.
I have never said college hoops is nearly impossible to win at. In fact, I've said pretty much the opposite. I already gave the example of the Chinese programmers who killed it for two years. I gave that example multiple times. I've said college hoops is the most beatable sport...for the savants. By the end of the season, the college hoops numbers are dialed in, but it takes months to get to that end of the season. And even then, there are some select opportunities with value accrued.
I don't know if it's that people don't read or if it's that they like making stuff up. Since I'm a real person, not some anonymous handle, it is annoying as hell when somebody just nonchalantly says something that is so far off base and supposed to be my opinion.
Red, if I remembered and misquoted your comment on college basketball wagering I apologize. What is the big deal.Originally Posted by redietz
For God sakes, stop with this anonymous handle crusade. Players, AP and other reason, HAVE to post anonymous for obvious reasons concerning the casinos we play against. And of late, for reasons of trolls/haters trying to dox and harm us. If you with what you do, don't have that need good for you, but are you really blind to as why some of us do?
Most AP's know the others on these forums. If not, friends or have actually met, you know who they are and know information about them. I am quite sure someone like Maxpen knows exactly who I am and it is not the trolling nonsense he spouts. And likewise, I know information about many on this forum, that I would never do anything with but keep to myself.
So no one is really anonymous on these forums. I don't know why you still with this crusade or agenda. Give it up dude.
Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".
https://open.spotify.com/episode/1mH...7898b57fc149bb
Billy Walters on Joe Rogan.
Would love to hear Redietz's opinion. lol
It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"
Originally Posted by kewlJRed, if I remembered and misquoted your comment on college basketball wagering I apologize. What is the big deal.Originally Posted by redietz
For God sakes, stop with this anonymous handle crusade. Players, AP and other reason, HAVE to post anonymous for obvious reasons concerning the casinos we play against. And of late, for reasons of trolls/haters trying to dox and harm us. If you with what you do, don't have that need good for you, but are you really blind to as why some of us do?
Most AP's know the others on these forums. If not, friends or have actually met, you know who they are and know information about them. I am quite sure someone like Maxpen knows exactly who I am and it is not the trolling nonsense he spouts. And likewise, I know information about many on this forum, that I would never do anything with but keep to myself.
So no one is really anonymous on these forums. I don't know why you still with this crusade or agenda. Give it up dude.
So the kewlJ argument is nobody is really anonymous, but they maintain anonymity because then KAYOS will never figure out who they are.
Makes perfect sense.
Originally Posted by accountinquestion
If you think Billy Walters is detailing how he's actually done things in his book or on Joe Rogan, God bless you, as we say in the South.
Sports betting is the hot area of gambling, so yes it's possible to make money without being competent.Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
It was the same during the poker boom. But the big money was racked up by the skilled players.
Lol you make up implications that have 0 basis on anything. Billy could say everything he does at this point. Outside of interesting stories none of it would be ground breaking at this point. Lol.Originally Posted by redietzOriginally Posted by accountinquestion
If you think Billy Walters is detailing how he's actually done things in his book or on Joe Rogan, God bless you, as we say in the South.
See people, what we got here is another way for rwdiwtz to frame himself as being smarter than others on here when it is clear as day even Singer is smarter. He wants to suggest Billy is one of the few on his level.
Redietz you ol clown just give up.
It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"
Once again, redietz is on record calling Billy Walters a liar and fraud. Druff this should be one of your lines of questioning.Originally Posted by redietzOriginally Posted by accountinquestion
If you think Billy Walters is detailing how he's actually done things in his book or on Joe Rogan, God bless you, as we say in the South.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
At the 9:40 mark Walters said he worked with at least 50 handicappers over the years and everyone of them got to the point they couldn't win. If redietz worked for Walters then redietz would have been one of them that couldn't win. Perhaps redietz could expound on this bit of information.Originally Posted by accountinquestion
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
Below is a link to an interview of Capt. Jack Andrews and Gina Fiore. Here is a quote of Jack you can find at the 19:30 mark:
"There's multiple ways to be a sharp sports bettor. The two terms we use are Top/Down and Bottom/Up."
Jack goes on to explain that Top/Down is using a sharp source like Pinnacle then finding and betting lines in the other books that are off from the Pinnacle/sharp line. I've heard this same thing repeated by several noted sports bettors.
"More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ
Originally Posted by mickeycrimmAt the 9:40 mark Walters said he worked with at least 50 handicappers over the years and everyone of them got to the point they couldn't win. If redietz worked for Walters then redietz would have been one of them that couldn't win. Perhaps redietz could expound on this bit of information.Originally Posted by accountinquestion
Oh, I'd love to. LOL. More importantly, all geniuses can figure out why the dudes couldn't win, what the actual definition of "win" is, and what is Mr. Walters trying to accomplish by reporting this, be it correct or incorrect.
Mickey should have attended the Johnson City Men's Book Club meeting regarding Gambler (I offered him an airline ticket). Much of this was discussed, including all manner of details that wouldn't make it onto Joe Rogan.
When you can no longer win handicapping you become a tout. With "integrity" of course. Then you go back to bumfuck Tennessee to live in your parents basement until they croak and you inherit the house. Bonus bucks if you can bury Senior in the backyard and continue to receive his pension.Originally Posted by mickeycrimmAt the 9:40 mark Walters said he worked with at least 50 handicappers over the years and everyone of them got to the point they couldn't win. If redietz worked for Walters then redietz would have been one of them that couldn't win. Perhaps redietz could expound on this bit of information.Originally Posted by accountinquestion
FraudJ's word is worth less than the prop cash in Singer's safe...RIP
+1 on this regarding pokerOriginally Posted by Don PerignomSports betting is the hot area of gambling, so yes it's possible to make money without being competent.Originally Posted by mickeycrimm
It was the same during the poker boom. But the big money was racked up by the skilled players.
I will add that first mover advantage is huge in all area’s of gambling, and business.
In poker it was all fixed limit then sit n goes we’re very profitable at the beginning.
Fixed limit full ring
6 max limit
Sit n goes
No limit full ring
No limit 6 max
Heads up NL
Mixed games
Short stacking NL
Zoom poker
Deep stack 250 bb tables on stars
Was the order I played eventually moving to only casino advantage Play as the advantages I was able figure out we’re far greater then poker. The money leveraging team play was way better, and it’s just more fun beating a casino then it is some poor dengen fish at poker.
In every new game online I was One of the people who always jumped in to learn. First mover advantage
Regarding casino sports betting specifically bonus arbitrage it was far better some years ago.
In reds case he seems to be some guy who found an edge back in the day never adapted, and how is regulated to telling outdated stories while he waits to inherit his father’s home.
Did you read the book ? I did not because I’m some world class sports better like you CLAIM to be. No because if you are a professional gambler you should at least make an attempt to read anything by guys who are successful. Being curious and committed to a life of learning is the actual key to succeed.Originally Posted by redietzOriginally Posted by accountinquestion
If you think Billy Walters is detailing how he's actually done things in his book or on Joe Rogan, God bless you, as we say in the South.
Mickey is one example of this. He continues to read and acquire knowledge in all gambling disciplines. In doing so over the years he’s become proficient in multiple things he can exploit to earn.
You seem to be stuck in the 80s when you ran a book for the mob and made money regardless.
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