Professional Sportsbetting

[Treeshade]

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1mH...7898b57fc149bb

Billy Walters on Joe Rogan.

Would love to hear Redietz's opinion. lol

If you think Billy Walters is detailing how he's actually done things in his book or on Joe Rogan, God bless you, as we say in the South.

Did you read the book ? I did not because I’m some world class sports better like you CLAIM to be. No because if you are a professional gambler you should at least make an attempt to read anything by guys who are successful. Being curious and committed to a life of learning is the actual key to succeed.

Mickey is one example of this. He continues to read and acquire knowledge in all gambling disciplines. In doing so over the years he’s become proficient in multiple things he can exploit to earn.

You seem to be stuck in the 80s when you ran a book for the mob and made money regardless.

Mick I wonder

Do you actually know the craps play on a particular machine? The one you have been on the record about as being illegal?

Did you know of the biased version of one particular electronic baccarat machine ?

Do you know there is a roulette game currently on the Floor in multiple casinos that is not random ?

Did you know of a particular slot machine the one with the bags and the sponge bob character hovering in the middle that was completely broken worth 30k plus per install depending on bet denomination? It’s Since been removed or updated.


Did you know IGT had a graphic glitch in certain games that reveal a prize or bonus before selecting and or playing for it ?

My point is there is so much information out here that if you don’t at least dedicate some time to research you are missing out:

The thing I admire about walters is the amount of time and money he spent just on research alone. That is one trait all successful gamblers seem to have. They continue to refine their craft and learn

[Don Perignom]

Regarding casino sports betting specifically bonus arbitrage it was far better some years ago.

As I recall, online gambling was good for US players until late 2006, then remained good a few more years for internationals.

I was so occupied with poker and casino that I never properly researched sports. The Bonus Whores forum did not add a sports section until mid to late 2005:



And you can see they lumped it in with casinos.

Here's a snapshot of bonus offers at then-reputable sportsbooks:

https://web.archive.org/web/20051013...s/default.aspx



Typical rollover was between 3 and 5x, which I believe normally applied to the deposit. So if you deposited $1000 on a 4x and received a $250 cash bonus, your rollover was $4000. I'm not sure how the free play bonuses functioned.

Lower rated books may have had more generous terms.

[mickeycrimm]

If you think Billy Walters is detailing how he's actually done things in his book or on Joe Rogan, God bless you, as we say in the South.

Did you read the book ? I did not because I’m some world class sports better like you CLAIM to be. No because if you are a professional gambler you should at least make an attempt to read anything by guys who are successful. Being curious and committed to a life of learning is the actual key to succeed.

Mickey is one example of this. He continues to read and acquire knowledge in all gambling disciplines. In doing so over the years he’s become proficient in multiple things he can exploit to earn.

You seem to be stuck in the 80s when you ran a book for the mob and made money regardless.

Mick I wonder

Do you actually know the craps play on a particular machine? The one you have been on the record about as being illegal?

Did you know of the biased version of one particular electronic baccarat machine ?

Do you know there is a roulette game currently on the Floor in multiple casinos that is not random ?

Did you know of a particular slot machine the one with the bags and the sponge bob character hovering in the middle that was completely broken worth 30k plus per install depending on bet denomination? It’s Since been removed or updated.


Did you know IGT had a graphic glitch in certain games that reveal a prize or bonus before selecting and or playing for it ?

My point is there is so much information out here that if you don’t at least dedicate some time to research you are missing out:

The thing I admire about walters is the amount of time and money he spent just on research alone. That is one trait all successful gamblers seem to have. They continue to refine their craft and learn

I don't remember calling a craps play illegal you'll have to jog my memory on that one.

I usually don't find out about a lot of this stuff until it's over.

The bag game you are talking about I only seen one machine and they quickly took it out before I could analyze it. I learned later from a friend in Oklahoma that the game was advantage at install until certain things were hit. He and a partner discovered it in OK then traveled around playing them off. They eventually figured out they were being followed from casino to casino and then got backroomed. But they weren't doing anything illegal so nothing came of it. I was like fuck me running I should have jumped on that game right away.

[mickeycrimm]

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1mH...7898b57fc149bb

Billy Walters on Joe Rogan.

Would love to hear Redietz's opinion. lol

If you think Billy Walters is detailing how he's actually done things in his book or on Joe Rogan, God bless you, as we say in the South.

Do you have any questions for Billy Walters? Well, you're in luck. You can ask redietz right here. He knows Walter's thoughts and opinions on everything.

[mickeycrimm]

[QUOTE=mickeycrimm;173938]

https://open.spotify.com/episode/1mH...7898b57fc149bb

Billy Walters on Joe Rogan.

Would love to hear Redietz's opinion. lol

If you think Billy Walters is detailing how he's actually done things in his book or on Joe Rogan, God bless you, as we say in the South.

Does anyone have any questions for Billy Walters? Well, you're in luck. You can ask redietz right here. He knows Walter's thoughts and opinions on everything.

Ditz, you really need to quit selling Walter's short.

[mickeycrimm]

@chinamaniac
Maniac Chronicles Vol. 6


➕➖Simple Sports Math Models for Knuckleheads➗��

Part 1 -> USE LOGIC --->>> Keep It Simple

I am going to describe to you how I did my bulk of the work myself and that was by using simple logic and simple math and skipped over the paralysis by analysis. I am fully aware that there are many ways to win at sports betting.

One can partner up with some of the best provided you network right, or use a top down method if you want to do the work yourself which is also a skill that takes time to develop.

You can also build automated models yourself if you know how to do such a thing but I think when most public bettors and even some pros hear about stuff like this they get lost.

I have taken many shots in the dark at things that seemed to make sense to me and some work and some do not. I am not going to go into extreme detail on some things but will try to paint a picture as clear as possible that can show you how using basic math concepts with a pen and paper have produced ripe fruit for me.

I had no set plan for life but I loved sports and gambling. Through some of those years I was an agent for a bookie and I have touched on this before. This guy offered "Action Point" ( Points Bets/ Lightning Bets) wagers. Points Betting is a specific bet type where the amount you win or lose is based on the number of points by which your bet wins or loses. There is usually a cap or max to how many units can be won or lost.

He didn't charge juice on these for the first couple of years which was an edge in itself. I found an angle to beat these using prior performance and betting on overs. This was very simply the first edge I had.

So basically to beat these things all you needed to do was bet just about any College Football Top 10 team or ANY TEAM for that matter who was favored by double digits. For Instance if you bet USC @ home when they were favored by 27 they might not cover but when they do not cover its usually by a TD or less. When they do cover they might cover by 3+ tds.

Back in the early 2000s this was a licence to print money and this bookie lost 500k booking these to people I know. Overs also worked with the same concept as some games would go into double and triple overtime and with no cap on the amount of points you could win you could print.

Part 5-> Using Math to Beat Sports

This is the one that most people shy away from as they either do not know how math works or they think it is going to be complicated. The first thing you should do when applying math to any sports betting situation is STOP SAYING " I THINK THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN OR I THINK THIS MIGHT HAPPEN" . Every losing sports bettor I know does this and every talk show host does this and most of them are losing bettors too.

The first thing you need to do is get in there and break down the math and then if you have any opinions or facts that may be valid can change the outlook of what you are betting.

@haralabob
is probably the greatest NBA bettor of all time and I believe one of the earliest edges he found was simply betting on 2nd half OVERS in the NBA (1h UNDERS TOO?) .

I believe this was his edge

1st Half Total = 100
2nd Half Total = 100 <---- Think of how many fouls happen at the end of games + overtimes. No further analysis needs to be run. This is just WAY WAY OFF and horribly mispriced.

You may not find stuff that is this good in 2024 but with a zillion markets and new props popping up every day there are multiple edges to be had if you can find them first and you do not need to be a computer wizard to figure these things out.

If you do figure something like this out you can then afford to hire or work with those computer wizards who can do things that you cannot!


Part 6 - Modeling Mispriced Player Props + Various Other Stuff

I started modeling player props by hand and basically was doing simple math to correct the bookies mistakes.
They list something like this (these are rough numbers for examples)

Rough Example 1 - USC Ju Ju Smith Schuster 7.5 catches for the 1st or 2nd game of the season.

I look at his results for the prior game and prior year and I see he went UNDER in 11 out of 14 games. So if I had bet this UNDER 13 times I am winning @ a 78.57 % clip.

By default I am not going to say " I think X Y or Z might happen". I trust the math and I bet the under and adjust later if I continue losing on something like this.

I probably won @ a 70 % clip over a decent sample the first month or 2 I did this and eventually I "tailed off" and was sitting at around 63 %.

Why such a drop to 63%? I learned to stop betting OVERS vs Nick Saban and Dabbos defenses and my win rate increased.

In the end as lines become more efficient it is more about becoming a Jedi on looking at small samples of data and being able to "predict '' what is going to happen or what is not going to happen.

After a while it became a science. Run the math and find specific #s I am looking for. Find outliers that can either help or hurt the bet in game logs but in the end trust the math and save 90 % of the subjective bullshit you hear all of the talking heads blabbing about.

Rough Example 2- Lebron Triple Double 6 in 80 games which is 13.3 to 1 but the books were only making you lay 2-1 <--- Autobet , I remember getting Giannis at like 3-1 on the NO when he barely sniffed triple doubles.

Rough Example 3 - Pat Mahomes 349.5 Pass Yds vs 49s in the SuperBowl in 2019 13-4 to the UNDER for 76.47 %

Part 7- The China Prop Scale

I honestly have no idea what my true win rate is. I just keep betting but I would guess it is somewhere around that 63% and that is over a massive sample. Again tracking all of this stuff is just another time consuming thing that I don't care to do as long as I keep winning.

Here is an example of a scale I have adopted to price game props in football and whether I determine them to be bettable.

If you are winning NORTH of 60 % and again I will just toss 63 % out there if we place 100 bets @ $100 a pop we are winning $6300 and losing $4440 @ -120 on the losers. This means the variance is extremely low and I would be winning $1860 on every 100 bets I make. I am comfortable with that..... I don't enjoy losing or suffering through long stretches of losing....

So if I am going to price a -1300 NO SAFETY in the Super Bowl I will start here and compare the edge to a typical player prop edge.

2023 there were 7 safeties. 272 games played amongst all teams 265 wins and 7 losses ( can track back more years for more data also)

1000 divided by 272 = 3.676 x 265 wins we are winning 97.42 % of the time out of every 100 times we run this and losing 2.58 % of the time

97.42 x $100 = +9742
2.58 x -1300 = -3354
Profit = $6388

Math doesn't lie ( unless I fucked this up, please correct me and tell me how dumb I am) so this is a great bet provided you trust this data is correct.

You can add in different stuff like past years data or certain team statistics to make this a stronger number but for the most part running the math like this will get you where you need to be on a lot of props and it is not that complicated.

Part 8 -> Keep Your Ears Open and Summary

Always keep your ears open when listening to these betting podcasts as well. I came across some info listening to a podcast once and while this info may sound trivial to others ( I won't mention what it was) it gave me a hunch.

I took the hunch and applied it to Golf Matchup Betting. Over a few hundred samples I was easily clearing NORTH of 60 % winners.

The first time I met @RufusPeabody
a year ago I ran it by him to see what he thought and while it was so simplistic he agreed that it would probably profit long term betting it the way I was.

I fired it up while betting Super Bowl props in a legal state not that far back for the hell of it and what do you know I went 3-0 ( have not bet since).

There are many ways to skin a cat and my way is just one of them and I enjoy originating and finding mistakes in the market.

I am fully aware there are other ways to win and the market is NOT AS EASY now ( and I win other ways as well) and it gets harder every day in certain ways.

But for me, this is the baseline of how I priced and found mispriced stuff for years.

[tableplay]

[Garnabby]

I didn't watch the video, but, my first thought, when I see stories like that is, Bill Benter. Ha.

[Half Smoke]

@chinamaniac
Maniac Chronicles Vol. 6


➕➖Simple Sports Math Models for Knuckleheads➗��

Part 1 -> USE LOGIC --->>> Keep It Simple

I am going to describe to you how I did my bulk of the work myself and that was by using simple logic and simple math and skipped over the paralysis by analysis. I am fully aware that there are many ways to win at sports betting.

One can partner up with some of the best provided you network right, or use a top down method if you want to do the work yourself which is also a skill that takes time to develop.

You can also build automated models yourself if you know how to do such a thing but I think when most public bettors and even some pros hear about stuff like this they get lost.

I have taken many shots in the dark at things that seemed to make sense to me and some work and some do not. I am not going to go into extreme detail on some things but will try to paint a picture as clear as possible that can show you how using basic math concepts with a pen and paper have produced ripe fruit for me.

I had no set plan for life but I loved sports and gambling. Through some of those years I was an agent for a bookie and I have touched on this before. This guy offered "Action Point" ( Points Bets/ Lightning Bets) wagers. Points Betting is a specific bet type where the amount you win or lose is based on the number of points by which your bet wins or loses. There is usually a cap or max to how many units can be won or lost.

He didn't charge juice on these for the first couple of years which was an edge in itself. I found an angle to beat these using prior performance and betting on overs. This was very simply the first edge I had.

So basically to beat these things all you needed to do was bet just about any College Football Top 10 team or ANY TEAM for that matter who was favored by double digits. For Instance if you bet USC @ home when they were favored by 27 they might not cover but when they do not cover its usually by a TD or less. When they do cover they might cover by 3+ tds.

Back in the early 2000s this was a licence to print money and this bookie lost 500k booking these to people I know. Overs also worked with the same concept as some games would go into double and triple overtime and with no cap on the amount of points you could win you could print.

Part 5-> Using Math to Beat Sports

This is the one that most people shy away from as they either do not know how math works or they think it is going to be complicated. The first thing you should do when applying math to any sports betting situation is STOP SAYING " I THINK THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN OR I THINK THIS MIGHT HAPPEN" . Every losing sports bettor I know does this and every talk show host does this and most of them are losing bettors too.

The first thing you need to do is get in there and break down the math and then if you have any opinions or facts that may be valid can change the outlook of what you are betting.

@haralabob
is probably the greatest NBA bettor of all time and I believe one of the earliest edges he found was simply betting on 2nd half OVERS in the NBA (1h UNDERS TOO?) .

I believe this was his edge

1st Half Total = 100
2nd Half Total = 100 <---- Think of how many fouls happen at the end of games + overtimes. No further analysis needs to be run. This is just WAY WAY OFF and horribly mispriced.

You may not find stuff that is this good in 2024 but with a zillion markets and new props popping up every day there are multiple edges to be had if you can find them first and you do not need to be a computer wizard to figure these things out.

If you do figure something like this out you can then afford to hire or work with those computer wizards who can do things that you cannot!


Part 6 - Modeling Mispriced Player Props + Various Other Stuff

I started modeling player props by hand and basically was doing simple math to correct the bookies mistakes.
They list something like this (these are rough numbers for examples)

Rough Example 1 - USC Ju Ju Smith Schuster 7.5 catches for the 1st or 2nd game of the season.

I look at his results for the prior game and prior year and I see he went UNDER in 11 out of 14 games. So if I had bet this UNDER 13 times I am winning @ a 78.57 % clip.

By default I am not going to say " I think X Y or Z might happen". I trust the math and I bet the under and adjust later if I continue losing on something like this.

I probably won @ a 70 % clip over a decent sample the first month or 2 I did this and eventually I "tailed off" and was sitting at around 63 %.

Why such a drop to 63%? I learned to stop betting OVERS vs Nick Saban and Dabbos defenses and my win rate increased.

In the end as lines become more efficient it is more about becoming a Jedi on looking at small samples of data and being able to "predict '' what is going to happen or what is not going to happen.

After a while it became a science. Run the math and find specific #s I am looking for. Find outliers that can either help or hurt the bet in game logs but in the end trust the math and save 90 % of the subjective bullshit you hear all of the talking heads blabbing about.

Rough Example 2- Lebron Triple Double 6 in 80 games which is 13.3 to 1 but the books were only making you lay 2-1 <--- Autobet , I remember getting Giannis at like 3-1 on the NO when he barely sniffed triple doubles.

Rough Example 3 - Pat Mahomes 349.5 Pass Yds vs 49s in the SuperBowl in 2019 13-4 to the UNDER for 76.47 %

Part 7- The China Prop Scale

I honestly have no idea what my true win rate is. I just keep betting but I would guess it is somewhere around that 63% and that is over a massive sample. Again tracking all of this stuff is just another time consuming thing that I don't care to do as long as I keep winning.

Here is an example of a scale I have adopted to price game props in football and whether I determine them to be bettable.

If you are winning NORTH of 60 % and again I will just toss 63 % out there if we place 100 bets @ $100 a pop we are winning $6300 and losing $4440 @ -120 on the losers. This means the variance is extremely low and I would be winning $1860 on every 100 bets I make. I am comfortable with that..... I don't enjoy losing or suffering through long stretches of losing....

So if I am going to price a -1300 NO SAFETY in the Super Bowl I will start here and compare the edge to a typical player prop edge.

2023 there were 7 safeties. 272 games played amongst all teams 265 wins and 7 losses ( can track back more years for more data also)

1000 divided by 272 = 3.676 x 265 wins we are winning 97.42 % of the time out of every 100 times we run this and losing 2.58 % of the time

97.42 x $100 = +9742
2.58 x -1300 = -3354
Profit = $6388

Math doesn't lie ( unless I fucked this up, please correct me and tell me how dumb I am) so this is a great bet provided you trust this data is correct.

You can add in different stuff like past years data or certain team statistics to make this a stronger number but for the most part running the math like this will get you where you need to be on a lot of props and it is not that complicated.

Part 8 -> Keep Your Ears Open and Summary

Always keep your ears open when listening to these betting podcasts as well. I came across some info listening to a podcast once and while this info may sound trivial to others ( I won't mention what it was) it gave me a hunch.

I took the hunch and applied it to Golf Matchup Betting. Over a few hundred samples I was easily clearing NORTH of 60 % winners.

The first time I met @RufusPeabody
a year ago I ran it by him to see what he thought and while it was so simplistic he agreed that it would probably profit long term betting it the way I was.

I fired it up while betting Super Bowl props in a legal state not that far back for the hell of it and what do you know I went 3-0 ( have not bet since).

There are many ways to skin a cat and my way is just one of them and I enjoy originating and finding mistakes in the market.

I am fully aware there are other ways to win and the market is NOT AS EASY now ( and I win other ways as well) and it gets harder every day in certain ways.

But for me, this is the baseline of how I priced and found mispriced stuff for years.

great post from Mickey

just about anybody willing to do the small amount of work required can do this
it is necessary to look at the less popular bets in which mispricing by the books is much more likely than just betting ats or on the moneyline
the possible downside is that there may not be a lot of these types of bets to be found
Mickey would have to answer that - my own sports betting although profitable by a tiny amount was not that sharp

a person following this kind of strategy must also have the discipline to only make advantageous bets or it's useless

and Bill Benter is for real as Mickey has indicated -



.

[MDawg]

No one seems capable of keeping to his vow to stay 'way from VCT.

It is the gutter to which all the weak willed return!

I will no longer post here

Not me, I am out. Not wasting another second on this!

Why not just stay here, versus mouthing nonsensical vows to quit that you are helpless to keep.

[Half Smoke]

.

the "will there be a safety in the Super Bowl" is all but sure to bring out the longshot lovers making the NO a great bet

just like the 25/1 shot at the racetrack - those making those types of bets in the long run will pay much more in vig than the average vig

Mickey might comment on this but I believe that as a general rule (not every time of course) - the longer the shot - the worse the bet

which of course means that some bets that pay much less than even money can be great bets

[kewlJ]

No one seems capable of keeping to his vow to stay 'way from VCT.

It is the gutter to which all the weak willed return!

I will no longer post here

Not me, I am out. Not wasting another second on this!

Why not just stay here, versus mouthing nonsensical vows to quit that you are helpless to keep.

Shut the fuck up you narcistic asshole! Do you need to hijack every thread with your incessant trolling?

I am doing some advantage play sport betting for the last 7 months and I want to read everything mickeycrimm, half smoke, and even redietz (when he is not promoting some contest results from 14 years ago) has to say. I want to read and follow Dan Druff's picks as well as Half Smoke, who you have all but driven way from this forum.

You, Mdawg don't do or have an interest in sports betting, so just shut the fuck up and keep your trolling shit to your many other troll threads.

We don't need yet another forum where you continually tell everyone how great you are with no one that really knows, allowed to say a word. You already have a forum like that, that you own or are associated with and a second that wizard has allowed you to take over. Are you not going to be happy until you have destroyed every gambling related forum?

[MDawg]

The above post is a classic example of an UNKewlJ typical lying post:

1. Provides no evidence - other than sometimes mentioning that, "the math works" or "the math doesn't work."

2. Repeats the same things over and over - "manually rephrase the same old nervous essays over and over."

3. Tries to shoe horn his now worn smooth fable about being a multi year blackjack player into the topic. "I've been a professional player for X years and made X million dollars already blah blah blah so I know how it works."

3. Includes some kind of rant about MDawg / Singer / etc.

4. Misstates most of what he even references. Frequently contradicts himself.

5. Refers to unknown never will be seen APs or other experts who know him, will vouch for whatever it is he is claiming, or work with him.

6. Tries to distill any opposition to whatever it is he claims to "trolling" and "a witch hunt." – “poor poor KJ always the victim.” *

* 7. (Optional) Mentions that he doesn't really care what people think about him and that no one need prove anything.

[MDawg]

AxelWolf negates UNKewlJ sports betting:

I do find it hard to believe that a guy who's admittedly only given minimal action gets 21k in bonuses with only a 4.7 x rollover. No need to tell me you get better deals when negotiating with your account manager, I bet I told you that in the first place.

I have seen upwards of 20k+ losses and they are unwilling to give even 1k in deposit bonuses with less than a 10x rollover. Yet you, a small bettor managed to get 21k in bonuses with an average of 4.7 x wagering requirements. That's mostly unheard of today on any of the top 20 offshore joints. Obviously a complete big gambling degenerate might get something special.

[accountinquestion]

No one seems capable of keeping to his vow to stay 'way from VCT.

It is the gutter to which all the weak willed return!

Not me, I am out. Not wasting another second on this!

Why not just stay here, versus mouthing nonsensical vows to quit that you are helpless to keep.

Shut the fuck up you narcistic asshole! Do you need to hijack every thread with your incessant trolling?

I am doing some advantage play sport betting for the last 7 months and I want to read everything mickeycrimm, half smoke, and even redietz (when he is not promoting some contest results from 14 years ago) has to say. I want to read and follow Dan Druff's picks as well as Half Smoke, who you have all but driven way from this forum.

You, Mdawg don't do or have an interest in sports betting, so just shut the fuck up and keep your trolling shit to your many other troll threads.

We don't need yet another forum where you continually tell everyone how great you are with no one that really knows, allowed to say a word. You already have a forum like that, that you own or are associated with and a second that wizard has allowed you to take over. Are you not going to be happy until you have destroyed every gambling related forum?

Mdawg isn't destroying this forum anymore than you. Each of you is unique and contributes. This board keeps everyone in line. No one gets too out of line. Thats why we had to cut down on your bsing Kewl. You got by with it at other forums. In much the same way Mdawg doesn't bother to post all his fantstic gambling stories. Just too much for this forum. We're a tighter family unit who looks after each other.

[MDawg]

You gotta figure if you try out different versions of the same story enough ways and times, via PM to this person, different version via PM to that person, and then keep posting different versions in public, eventually you might hit on some version that half way makes sense. If you forget about all the failed tries along the way....

Tries to shoe horn his now worn smooth fable....

The UNKewl one was a liar, and like most liars, he was constantly changing his stories, altering time and personnel from one telling to the next. One time he would tell a story about someone, next time he would switch the story around to give himself the lead. He would sit in the casino coffee shop over coffee and pound cake, talking at random about his experiences, posting constantly on internet forums, plotting ways to take down all those he is envious of, never actually entering the casino, afraid like a nervous poodle to even play.

Essentially a natural selection of lies that is worn smooth towards eventually making sense.

[Rob.Singer]

A family of aliens from Uranus just moved in down the street last week. At the neighborhood cul de sac welcoming party they happen to ask me where the best place was to read about +EV gambling on the internet. I recommended VCT of course.

After a few days of reading history here, the aliens were really smitten with kew and his stories. They believe almost everything he's said. They especially enjoyed the $100k jackpot on freeplay, and because they are blackjack players, that shufflemaster story was very enticing to them.

These aliens truly do think kew is the Man About Town for LV. They don't understand the concept of him being gay, because, as they repeated multiple times, there are only two genders across the entire universe, and as such, you cannot fit a square peg in a round hole. Even THEY get it.

But these aliens were mostly interested in kew's professional blackjack-playing prowess....especially because he wins every year. They are hungry for some of that action. So I did as they asked and PM'd kew to see if he would host these aliens--at least until they get their webbed feet on the ground.

Kew declined. So I went back and offered him $65, a new self-lubricating surfboard, 2 nights at Delano on me, and a 2-week course on how to use his own dignity as a driver to tell the truth on forums, rather than being forever known as a pathological liar.

Kew accepted! They meet up next week at MGM, where those execs kew is best friends with are providing him with $250 in freeplay.

He's da man!

[kewlJ]

A family of aliens from Uranus just moved in down the street last week. At the neighborhood cul de sac welcoming party they happen to ask me where the best place was to read about +EV gambling on the internet. I recommended VCT of course.

There is a term for players like Rob, that don't understand expected value and what it means to play +EV. That term is losing players or gamblers, sometimes called degenerate losing gamblers. They talk about "special plays", and progression wagering, and play a lot of "pretend" taking pictures in RV's and houses that don't belong to them. And when the story ends they are 75 years old, living in their daughter's house.

[MDawg]

Guess who said this UNKewlJ?

He's pretty much a pathological liar you can't believe anything he says. But also probably a sociopath and they have no guilt no shame no embarrassment. They simply make up lies to cover the other lies.

Could it be perhaps that well known AP you used to think is on your side?

But it was so well said I decided to just adopt it for myself.

How about this one UNKewlJ? What well known AP said this:

I thought that was common knowledge about Kewlj being a male prostitute.

[cyberbabble]

Alan Boston is an entertaining old school handicapper. He kept hand written notebooks about the teams and made a power rating that he used to project a point spread. Computers, databases, sports analytics, etc. made his techniques outdated in the late 2000s. It's possible that the lines became more efficient and his stuff didn't work.

He worked for Billy Walters for 15 years starting in the early 1990s. Walters was paying him $12,000 per pick for college football if he didn't give them to anybody else. Boston did college football and basketball.

He has some college basketball this season on Twitter, Alan Boston/bostonred88. It's almost too late for this year but might be good to follow next year.