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Thread: Professional Sportsbetting

  1. #41
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    It appears that handicappers have long detested steam chasers like Frank B and Spanky that snipe the numbers. They call them bottomfeeders and leeches. Why would that be?

    Well, it looks like plain and simple HUBRIS to me. The fundamental analysis that the handicapper does....takes a lot of work. But the guys sniping numbers are making money with very little work. I can see why redietz would be jealous.

    Red, tell us about the good old days when you were hobnobbing with Bob Martin and Vic Salerno.

    OMG -- "steam chasers!" There you go -- file that with "sharps" and "soft numbers" and you have a triumvirate of jargon every blue-blooded American AP can proudly wear into the sports book.

    I don't call anyone a bottom-feeder, man. I'm sure Joe Lupo considered me a real flounder back in my youth.

    Mickey -- this whole "making money with very little work" is hogwash. It's fantasy trash. It's a story people tell themselves to help them sleep at night.

    "Sniping numbers?" LOL. You have to anticipate where numbers will move before you do any sniping. This assumption that numbers moves in all sports are advantageous a significant portion of the time is more fantasy. Now that Covid-based line moves are history, that stuff is of marginal value UNLESS YOU CAN ANTICIPATE THE MOVES.

    Dan's been using those kinds of angles for the NBA and college hoops. It has not been pretty. And did you check the NFL playoffs' "soft numbers?"

    Mickey, here's the thing. You are embarrassing yourself. And frankly, I'm embarrassing myself by spelling this stuff out to you. It's like I'm picking on special ed kids on this forum. You have a group of APs who are telling the world they win at sports betting. But there's no handicapping records. There's no day-to-day listing of "sniping numbers." There's just the AP narratives.

    Now it's possible to have stellar handicapping records and to lose betting sports. Some people lack sport-specific discipline or just go to hell when the going gets tough. But do you really think people without solid handicapping records win betting sports because they exploit "soft numbers?" You're living in fantasyland, just making unverifiable claims about what people have done and can do.

    I'll state it again -- Billy Walters had access to every expert in virtually every sport, he negotiated reduced vig, he had programmers out the ass, certainly better mathematicians than Mr. Shackleford, and even he had long losing stretches where he took good beatings. Yet your story is that the hard-scrabble APs betting 2G a game somehow use "AP" techniques to exploit "soft numbers" and consistently beat the sports books.

    If that's your preference in beliefs, God bless you and good luck with it.
    Last edited by redietz; 02-21-2023 at 06:45 PM.

  2. #42
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I'll be more than happy to guest on GWAE and explain why the phrase "Expected Value" is inappropriate for sports betting purposes. I'll also be more than happy to explain why handicappers with documented decades-long records and reputations among managers of sports books are more credible than cute anonymous nicknames.
    No doubt your remark about "cute anonymous nicknames" was about Spanky. I'm beginning to understand now. You really are monumentally ignorant about what is going on in the sports betting world. Spanky has a far bigger name in sports betting than you have ever had. You are not even close.

    David Hill from The Ringer has been doing articles and podcasts on gamblers for years. 3 years ago he wrote an article called "Requiem for a Sports Bettor." I'll hang the link at the bottom but here are a few paragraphs from the article:

    "Spanky decided he’d confront those industry leaders head-on in April at the Betting on Sports America conference at the Meadowlands Exposition Center.

    During a panel titled 'Pioneering Spirit,' the CEOs of a number of new operators, including Joe Asher, the CEO of William Hill’s U.S. operations, talked about their vision for the future of the industry in the United States. Jon Kaplowitz, the head of interactive for Penn National Gaming, which is partnered with William Hill, was asked about their risk management strategy. He joked that his strategy was, 'Joe [Asher] with a baseball bat running the sharps out of our casino.'

    During the Q&A, Spanky takes to the microphone, and Asher immediately drops his head as if he knows what is coming. Spanky asks, 'Jon, you mentioned Joe has a baseball bat trying to kick out sharps from the casino. I myself have personally been kicked out of all of your sportsbooks, as well as several of my colleagues, for the action being quote-unquote too sharp. And I was wondering if there was a possibility that you guys were going to practice effective risk management and instead of kicking out customers, to welcome all customers and having people, if they win, they’re still able to bet in your sportsbooks.'

    After some uncomfortable snickers from the audience, and an answer from Kaplowitz about how he has to manage between giving customers a great experience and making a profit, Asher grumpily responds. “This whole idea of people getting kicked out for winning is so overblown in the media and is such a distortion of reality,' he says. 'The stuff you read out there on Twitter or that makes its way into some press articles is just completely fanciful.'

    The exchange was devoid of fireworks, but across the conference people who weren’t at that panel were gossiping about what they heard about the exchange. Later that evening, one conference attendee tells me he heard Spanky threatened to go after Asher with a baseball bat. When I tell him what Spanky actually said, the man seems a little disappointed.

    But Spanky’s presence at the conference did seem to make an impact. A CEO and a number of executives from companies who had banned Spanky approached him and told him they’d like to talk to him about how they could work something out. And other gamblers were patting him on the back and thanking him for taking a stand against the greedy corporations. Long gone were the days of bettors grousing about his steam play, of calling him a bottom feeder. Spanky had become the sharp player’s shop steward; a gambling folk hero."

    Until I brought him up you had no clue who Spanky was. But you want to tell us you know everything about the sportsbetting world? Dude, you are embarrassing yourself.

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...ycafMqdH2zY1Ph
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 02-21-2023 at 07:06 PM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  3. #43
    Yeah, here's the bizarro part of mickey crimm's argument. He thinks that the "APs" are out there exploiting "soft numbers" and "chasing steam" -- without much handicapping (handicapping being hard work and all). And these "APs" are winning lifetime.

    Meanwhile, the handicappers who have documented records stretching back decades somehow are incapable of "chasing steam" and exploiting "soft numbers" because....well, because why? We're retarded? We haven't the experience? Because those concepts and strategies are things we haven't considered or followed for 10 or 20 or 30 years?

    So the argument is basically that 2K a game "APs" have skill, knowledge, and experience that the poor handicappers simply don't have.

    Yeah, we handicappers all be dumbasses. Case closed.

  4. #44
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    "Sniping numbers?" LOL. You have to anticipate where numbers will move before you do any sniping. This assumption that numbers moves in all sports are advantageous a significant portion of the time is more fantasy....that stuff is of marginal value UNLESS YOU CAN ANTICIPATE THE MOVES.
    I'll be damn. You and Spanky agree on something. Because that's exactly what he said in the article. He anticipates the line moves.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  5. #45
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Yeah, here's the bizarro part of mickey crimm's argument. He thinks that the "APs" are out there exploiting "soft numbers" and "chasing steam" -- without much handicapping (handicapping being hard work and all). And these "APs" are winning lifetime.

    Meanwhile, the handicappers who have documented records stretching back decades somehow are incapable of "chasing steam" and exploiting "soft numbers" because....well, because why? We're retarded? We haven't the experience? Because those concepts and strategies are things we haven't considered or followed for 10 or 20 or 30 years?

    So the argument is basically that 2K a game "APs" have skill, knowledge, and experience that the poor handicappers simply don't have.

    Yeah, we handicappers all be dumbasses. Case closed.
    LOL at ditz clutching at strawmen. He has to make up bullshit I didn't say to make an argument.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  6. #46
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    It appears that handicappers have long detested steam chasers like Frank B and Spanky that snipe the numbers. They call them bottomfeeders and leeches. Why would that be?

    Well, it looks like plain and simple HUBRIS to me. The fundamental analysis that the handicapper does....takes a lot of work. But the guys sniping numbers are making money with very little work. I can see why redietz would be jealous.

    Red, tell us about the good old days when you were hobnobbing with Bob Martin and Vic Salerno.

    OMG -- "steam chasers!" There you go -- file that with "sharps" and "soft numbers" and you have a triumvirate of jargon every blue-blooded American AP can proudly wear into the sports book.

    I don't call anyone a bottom-feeder, man. I'm sure Joe Lupo considered me a real flounder back in my youth.

    Mickey -- this whole "making money with very little work" is hogwash. It's fantasy trash. It's a story people tell themselves to help them sleep at night.

    "Sniping numbers?" LOL. You have to anticipate where numbers will move before you do any sniping. This assumption that numbers moves in all sports are advantageous a significant portion of the time is more fantasy. Now that Covid-based line moves are history, that stuff is of marginal value UNLESS YOU CAN ANTICIPATE THE MOVES.

    Dan's been using those kinds of angles for the NBA and college hoops. It has not been pretty. And did you check the NFL playoffs' "soft numbers?"

    Mickey, here's the thing. You are embarrassing yourself. And frankly, I'm embarrassing myself by spelling this stuff out to you. It's like I'm picking on special ed kids on this forum. You have a group of APs who are telling the world they win at sports betting. But there's no handicapping records. There's no day-to-day listing of "sniping numbers." There's just the AP narratives.

    Now it's possible to have stellar handicapping records and to lose betting sports. Some people lack sport-specific discipline or just go to hell when the going gets tough. But do you really think people without solid handicapping records win betting sports because they exploit "soft numbers?" You're living in fantasyland, just making unverifiable claims about what people have done and can do.

    I'll state it again -- Billy Walters had access to every expert in virtually every sport, he negotiated reduced vig, he had programmers out the ass, certainly better mathematicians than Mr. Shackleford, and even he had long losing stretches where he took good beatings. Yet your story is that the hard-scrabble APs betting 2G a game somehow use "AP" techniques to exploit "soft numbers" and consistently beat the sports books.

    If that's your preference in beliefs, God bless you and good luck with it.
    I doubt Walters ever had a mathematician as strong as Shackleford. You need to go over and take a look at the Wizard of Odds site. There has never been and never will be anything like it.

    I didn't say he was a great gambler. But as a mathematician Shackleford will run circles around anyone you or Walters ever knew.

    You are just showing more of your ignorance.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 02-21-2023 at 07:38 PM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  7. #47
    Redietz wrote:

    "Well, obviously, of course not. If you're asking that question, you should probably take up baccarat. It's a dumb question.

    For civilians, however, it's a reasonable question (I suppose), so I will address it in some blog entries. I have some decent stories -- in one, I'm a horse's ass (nothing new), in another I'm stupid (relative rare when it comes to sports gambling), and in another I don't get banned, just limited to $1.75 or thereabouts on futures.

    Rather than waste these stories here, I'll post them for a general audience on my blog.

    Mickey makes the classic, kind-of-silly error in his posts regarding this. Sports books limiting somebody is not analogous to them fearing or respecting the bettor. That's obviously not the case 99% of the time they limit somebody. I'm stunned that mickey tried to make that analogy for a relatively small wager by Spanky.

    As I've laid out in the past, sometimes limits vary by your card status and the tier-level that book assigns to a particular game. As CET did for years (I haven't made a substantial CET wager in a couple years, so not certain that's the current formula). Sometimes books limit you because they're gutless maroons.

    I wish I had videotaped last August when I went to the Hard Rock sports book and tried to bet a future. I tried to get down $250. You know how much they took from me? Guess again.

    They took a sawbuck.

    Does that mean they fear and respect me? LOL. Of course not. It was my first wager there. They don't know me from Adam. They're just tight, gutless maroons."

    ----------------------------------------------------------

    According to the Ringer article, at one point Gadoon "Spanky" Kryollos, was down to just five books in the entire world he could make a bet in his own name.

    And also according to David Hill, the author of the article and a witness, Spanky pointed out to Joe Asher, CEO of William Hill at a public Q & A , that he had been banned from all WH books in New Jersey because his action was to sharp. And asked that he be allowed to continue to bet.

    Vic Salerno former owner of Leroy's Book, pointed out that he and other books used to allow the sharp bettors and used them to set the line. But these European books that have taken over US betting seem have a different tact. They limit and get rid of all winning gamblers, period. From what I've read, if you get 20K winner on WH, you are gone, period. No exceptions.

    Guys like Spanky refer to them not as bookmakers but dressmakers.

    redietz, it's not me you are arguing with. I'm just repeating what sportsbettors have said and written. I''m just comparing what you say to what they say. At least we have you talking a little more. Your argument is with them, not me. But you can continue to make it about me if it makes you feel better.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 02-22-2023 at 08:18 AM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  8. #48
    Here's a 1 hour Q & A with sports bettor Gadoon "Spanky" Kryollos

    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  9. #49
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  10. #50
    Redietz, I have a response from Bob Dancer. I had sent him what you wrote about appearing on GWAE. I didn't change a word. I copied and pasted it. He's concerned about whether you intend to trash sports bettors who have previously appeared on the show. If you don't intend to do that then he will clear it with Richard.

    If it's a go then I'll put you in email contact with Bob. I've been on the show 3 times so I know the drill. He will ask you for a list of things to talk about, and he may have some suggestions of his own, so he can formulate the questions. When the list of topics is agreed upon they will do the interview.

    I also told him you appear to be a world class handicapper with a rich history in sportsbetting. So do us all a favor and don't trash us lowlife VCT AP's either.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  11. #51
    Redietz, I assured Bob and Richard you would be a gentleman on the show. They've given the greenlight. At this point I don't know how they want to make contact with you. But I contact them at gamblingwithanedge@gmail.com. or rwmunchkin@gmail.com.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  12. #52
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    It appears that handicappers have long detested steam chasers like Frank B and Spanky that snipe the numbers. They call them bottomfeeders and leeches. Why would that be?

    Well, it looks like plain and simple HUBRIS to me. The fundamental analysis that the handicapper does....takes a lot of work. But the guys sniping numbers are making money with very little work. I can see why redietz would be jealous.

    Red, tell us about the good old days when you were hobnobbing with Bob Martin and Vic Salerno.

    OMG -- "steam chasers!" There you go -- file that with "sharps" and "soft numbers" and you have a triumvirate of jargon every blue-blooded American AP can proudly wear into the sports book.

    I don't call anyone a bottom-feeder, man. I'm sure Joe Lupo considered me a real flounder back in my youth.

    Mickey -- this whole "making money with very little work" is hogwash. It's fantasy trash. It's a story people tell themselves to help them sleep at night.

    "Sniping numbers?" LOL. You have to anticipate where numbers will move before you do any sniping. This assumption that numbers moves in all sports are advantageous a significant portion of the time is more fantasy. Now that Covid-based line moves are history, that stuff is of marginal value UNLESS YOU CAN ANTICIPATE THE MOVES.

    Dan's been using those kinds of angles for the NBA and college hoops. It has not been pretty. And did you check the NFL playoffs' "soft numbers?"

    Mickey, here's the thing. You are embarrassing yourself. And frankly, I'm embarrassing myself by spelling this stuff out to you. It's like I'm picking on special ed kids on this forum. You have a group of APs who are telling the world they win at sports betting. But there's no handicapping records. There's no day-to-day listing of "sniping numbers." There's just the AP narratives.

    Now it's possible to have stellar handicapping records and to lose betting sports. Some people lack sport-specific discipline or just go to hell when the going gets tough. But do you really think people without solid handicapping records win betting sports because they exploit "soft numbers?" You're living in fantasyland, just making unverifiable claims about what people have done and can do.

    I'll state it again -- Billy Walters had access to every expert in virtually every sport, he negotiated reduced vig, he had programmers out the ass, certainly better mathematicians than Mr. Shackleford, and even he had long losing stretches where he took good beatings. Yet your story is that the hard-scrabble APs betting 2G a game somehow use "AP" techniques to exploit "soft numbers" and consistently beat the sports books.

    If that's your preference in beliefs, God bless you and good luck with it.
    I doubt Walters ever had a mathematician as strong as Shackleford. You need to go over and take a look at the Wizard of Odds site. There has never been and never will be anything like it.

    I didn't say he was a great gambler. But as a mathematician Shackleford will run circles around anyone you or Walters ever knew.

    You are just showing more of your ignorance.
    Rusty is a little wannabe Manboy Dicktator, awkward as a doofus, with no people skills, but you can't take away his expertise in math !

  13. #53
    When Bob expressed his concerns of redietz attacking others on the show this is what I told him:

    "I'm sure Dietz will be a gentleman on the show. He gets salty on VCT but so do the rest of us. He takes his share of abuse. If you want to get called every name in the book then join VCT. It's no holds barred. It's a forum of trolls that just happen to be AP's. But we are nice guys everywhere else. LOL

    I've been reading Dietz for years. My take is he is a world class handicapper that specializes in college football. He also works the NFL handicapping contests. He has a remarkable record going back decades. He is also highly knowledgeable on the history of sportsbooks and sportsbettors."

    They immediately gave the greenlight. They want him on the show.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  14. #54
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    When Bob expressed his concerns of redietz attacking others on the show this is what I told him:

    "I'm sure Dietz will be a gentleman on the show. He gets salty on VCT but so do the rest of us. He takes his share of abuse. If you want to get called every name in the book then join VCT. It's no holds barred. It's a forum of trolls that just happen to be AP's. But we are nice guys everywhere else. LOL

    I've been reading Dietz for years. My take is he is a world class handicapper that specializes in college football. He also works the NFL handicapping contests. He has a remarkable record going back decades. He is also highly knowledgeable on the history of sportsbooks and sportsbettors."

    They immediately gave the greenlight. They want him on the show.
    It's a show I would listen to--even though I just came off a 65% NFL ATS stint! If he can convince those two guys that successful sports bettors aren't AP''s who utilize available math tools, then he truly is world-class.

    I hope red can refrain from saying he posts on VCT "in order to become more well-known". Dancer knows what a poop-palace this place is.

  15. #55
    abcnews.go.com
    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...jrqQrDHvn6vPL6[/QUOTE]

    This from the article in the above link:

    "Ed Malinowski, sportsbook director for The Stratosphere, divides wise-guy action into two categories: handicappers who bet their opinions, AND ADVANTAGE PLAYERS WHO might place arbitrage bets on both sides of games and TARGET OFF-MARKET LINES AND ODDS.

    'The advantage players are the ones who are just scalping prices and TAKING ADVANTAGE OF WEAK NUMBERS,' Malinowski said. "Those are more of the undesirable-type players we don't want in here."
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 02-23-2023 at 11:45 AM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  16. #56
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Redietz, I have a response from Bob Dancer. I had sent him what you wrote about appearing on GWAE. I didn't change a word. I copied and pasted it. He's concerned about whether you intend to trash sports bettors who have previously appeared on the show. If you don't intend to do that then he will clear it with Richard.

    If it's a go then I'll put you in email contact with Bob. I've been on the show 3 times so I know the drill. He will ask you for a list of things to talk about, and he may have some suggestions of his own, so he can formulate the questions. When the list of topics is agreed upon they will do the interview.

    I also told him you appear to be a world class handicapper with a rich history in sportsbetting. So do us all a favor and don't trash us lowlife VCT AP's either.

    It would be a go with the caveat that I would like to do "in studio" in Las Vegas in person. That way I get to meet the principals involved. I prefer doing these things in person when possible.

    I have to get to LV a couple of times in the next four months or so anyway because I'm likely going to do a tour guide thing for a documentary filmmaker who is strictly an East Coast mob expert, but who is unfamiliar with details of Las Vegas. So hopefully I can dovetail the two. If not, I'll do the tour-guide thing later. I'd be doing Mafia Tour 101 while my better half could give the graduate course.

    I'm not going to badmouth the LVA crew. They have some legitimacy. Fezzik is, arguably, the best NFL contest player ever, but the whole contest thing underscores that, as in poker, there are contest guys and betting guys.

  17. #57
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    This from the article in the above link:

    "Ed Malinowski, sportsbook director for The Stratosphere, divides wise-guy action into two categories: handicappers who bet their opinions, AND ADVANTAGE PLAYERS WHO might place arbitrage bets on both sides of games and TARGET OFF-MARKET LINES AND ODDS.

    'The advantage players are the ones who are just scalping prices and taking advantage of weak numbers,' Malinowski said. "Those are more of the undesirable-type players we don't want in here."[/QUOTE]


    Mickey, sometimes you just don't get it. There are no whiz-bang handicappers who aren't also arbitrage savants. I mentioned Larry Fletcher many times as the only gambler I ever knew who I believed never had a losing year. He was arbitraging numbers with programs before there was Windows. But he was also plugged into and partnered with the best classic handicappers. In the case of college football, he used Mike Lee and myself, and probably a handful of others.

    One of my alleged strengths was (pre-Covid numbers moves) that I could anticipate college line moves. I'd be correct about moves 70% of the time or more. That ability to read the public is incredibly valuable because it allows you to pre-bet things on speculation without waiting for money to create "soft numbers."

    There is also an absolutely crucial element to trying to middle wagers that prevents people from data mining you and picking up on what you do. It's obvious if you think about it. But I'll save the explication for the show.

    This whole "numbers moving" thing. Why do you think I'm exclusively (and have been for a dozen years or more) hands-on with money rather than "selling picks," as Argentino keeps blabbing. Nobody shops 'til they drop like me. It's the whole reason I badmouth Shackleford and his goddamn stupid "parlay calculator" spiel. If you bet off the board parlays, you are not getting optimal numbers for each game. Unless you are betting promotional angles or souped-up parlay odds, betting off the board parlays is fundamentally wrong.

    LOL. If I can find it, Dancer can read chunks of the old Mendelson "package."
    Last edited by redietz; 02-23-2023 at 11:43 AM.

  18. #58
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Redietz, I have a response from Bob Dancer. I had sent him what you wrote about appearing on GWAE. I didn't change a word. I copied and pasted it. He's concerned about whether you intend to trash sports bettors who have previously appeared on the show. If you don't intend to do that then he will clear it with Richard.

    If it's a go then I'll put you in email contact with Bob. I've been on the show 3 times so I know the drill. He will ask you for a list of things to talk about, and he may have some suggestions of his own, so he can formulate the questions. When the list of topics is agreed upon they will do the interview.

    I also told him you appear to be a world class handicapper with a rich history in sportsbetting. So do us all a favor and don't trash us lowlife VCT AP's either.

    It would be a go with the caveat that I would like to do "in studio" in Las Vegas in person. That way I get to meet the principals involved. I prefer doing these things in person when possible.

    I have to get to LV a couple of times in the next four months or so anyway because I'm likely going to do a tour guide thing for a documentary filmmaker who is strictly an East Coast mob expert, but who is unfamiliar with details of Las Vegas. So hopefully I can dovetail the two. If not, I'll do the tour-guide thing later. I'd be doing Mafia Tour 101 while my better half could give the graduate course.

    I'm not going to badmouth the LVA crew. They have some legitimacy. Fezzik is, arguably, the best NFL contest player ever, but the whole contest thing underscores that, as in poker, there are contest guys and betting guys.
    Indeed.

  19. #59
    From adversaries to Mickey becoming Redietz' publicity and appearance agent, perhaps we can all find a way to get along here, after all. JK

  20. #60
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    This from the article in the above link:

    "Ed Malinowski, sportsbook director for The Stratosphere, divides wise-guy action into two categories: handicappers who bet their opinions, AND ADVANTAGE PLAYERS WHO might place arbitrage bets on both sides of games and TARGET OFF-MARKET LINES AND ODDS.

    'The advantage players are the ones who are just scalping prices and taking advantage of weak numbers,' Malinowski said. "Those are more of the undesirable-type players we don't want in here."

    Mickey, sometimes you just don't get it. There are no whiz-bang handicappers who aren't also arbitrage savants. I mentioned Larry Fletcher many times as the only gambler I ever knew who I believed never had a losing year. He was arbitraging numbers with programs before there was Windows. But he was also plugged into and partnered with the best classic handicappers. In the case of college football, he used Mike Lee and myself, and probably a handful of others.

    One of my alleged strengths was (pre-Covid numbers moves) that I could anticipate college line moves. I'd be correct about moves 70% of the time or more. That ability to read the public is incredibly valuable because it allows you to pre-bet things on speculation without waiting for money to create "soft numbers."

    There is also an absolutely crucial element to trying to middle wagers that prevents people from data mining you and picking up on what you do. It's obvious if you think about it. But I'll save the explication for the show.

    This whole "numbers moving" thing. Why do you think I'm exclusively (and have been for a dozen years or more) hands-on with money rather than "selling picks," as Argentino keeps blabbing. Nobody shops 'til they drop like me. It's the whole reason I badmouth Shackleford and his goddamn stupid "parlay calculator" spiel. If you bet off the board parlays, you are not getting optimal numbers for each game. Unless you are betting promotional angles or souped-up parlay odds, betting off the board parlays is fundamentally wrong.

    LOL. If I can find it, Dancer can read chunks of the old Mendelson "package."[/QUOTE]

    The arbitraging HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH MY POINT.

    This was my point:

    "Advantage players who target off-market lines and odds" and "take advantage of weak numbers" was my point. Those are direct quotes from Malinowski. This is what you say can't be done for profit. It's what you belittle AP's for. Yet Malinowski doesn't want the business of these "advantage players," he called them. "AP" is short for advantage player. We're the guys YOU BELITTLE but Malinowski DOESN'T WANT OUR BUSINESS.
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 02-23-2023 at 12:15 PM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

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