Professional Sportsbetting

[monet]

Why would anyone share proprietary information? It would be beyond idiotic to do that.

One of the issues with competing in public contests is that people will run your plays through every algorithm imaginable to discover what it is you are doing and what subsets at which you are most effective. You will be data mined up, down, and sideways. This has been going on since the "70's, when a wealthy person would subscribe to dozens of handicapping services, then re-sell those picks as a "Consensus Service" that enabled clients to pick and choose whose plays they wanted. In the meantime, the Consensus Service owner would data mine all of the plays, including checking correlations between services for effectiveness.

When Billy Walters assembled roundtables of experts in individual sports (late 1990's and onward), he would have access to individual savants and data mine their plays while basically setting them up to compete with each other, while (of course) doing his best to not have them working with each other without his oversight.

Why would anyone who actually wins tell you how they are actually winning? Are sports handicappers supposed to be mentally challenged as opposed to most "APs?"

It's such a bizarre request, Axelwolf. What the hell are you thinking? Or do you believe people are just brain dead in general? I mean, can you imagine someone publicly asking you to lay out the specifics of what you are doing? LOL. What would your response be?

Why would they give away their picks?

Maybe they are successful people who can win at sports betting without it being important to them or even any sort of significant income. Maybe it is more for funnsies.

The beyond idiotic portion comes from not understanding this. The person who can't understand this simple concept is the mentally challenged one.

I lol at this idea people reverse engineering contest picks. If they're running these picks under every algorithm available I'd have to wonder why they don't just use that on the ACTUAL games. You'd find far better correlations than trying to reverse engineer someone's picks without even knowing what stats they use. Doubtful you'd have anywhere near enough data but I won't bother asking why because I know the answer.

<crickets>

See. this is what I mean about people not knowing what they're talking about. As in not knowing what they are talking about AT ALL.

Obviously, genius, people HAVE BEEN data mining actual results for decades. Pull up a Playbook magazine from 1990. I mean, holy hell, do some research or work or something. Learn to read. Holy fucking christ. You've had multi-millionaires running every imaginable data mining program on results forever. And not just from the good old USA. Half the Playbook staff was running these programs for 30 years.

If you don't know this, why would you even comment at all? It's doofus city with you and sports betting.

Jesus, you are out of your depth. It's okay to be out of your depth. But you don't acknowledge you're out of your depth. It is truly un-fucking-believable what you don't know.

lul... Doofus City... well you finally understand who accountinquestion is or at least you finally posted about it!
I'm not onboard nor do I condone your use of Holy F--- C Word... not nice, not nice at all.
Thou Shalt Not Take the Lord's Name in Vain and you did it twice in this post.
Pray for forgiveness!

[accountinquestion]

Why would anyone share proprietary information? It would be beyond idiotic to do that.

One of the issues with competing in public contests is that people will run your plays through every algorithm imaginable to discover what it is you are doing and what subsets at which you are most effective. You will be data mined up, down, and sideways. This has been going on since the "70's, when a wealthy person would subscribe to dozens of handicapping services, then re-sell those picks as a "Consensus Service" that enabled clients to pick and choose whose plays they wanted. In the meantime, the Consensus Service owner would data mine all of the plays, including checking correlations between services for effectiveness.

When Billy Walters assembled roundtables of experts in individual sports (late 1990's and onward), he would have access to individual savants and data mine their plays while basically setting them up to compete with each other, while (of course) doing his best to not have them working with each other without his oversight.

Why would anyone who actually wins tell you how they are actually winning? Are sports handicappers supposed to be mentally challenged as opposed to most "APs?"

It's such a bizarre request, Axelwolf. What the hell are you thinking? Or do you believe people are just brain dead in general? I mean, can you imagine someone publicly asking you to lay out the specifics of what you are doing? LOL. What would your response be?

Why would they give away their picks?

Maybe they are successful people who can win at sports betting without it being important to them or even any sort of significant income. Maybe it is more for funnsies.

The beyond idiotic portion comes from not understanding this. The person who can't understand this simple concept is the mentally challenged one.

I lol at this idea people reverse engineering contest picks. If they're running these picks under every algorithm available I'd have to wonder why they don't just use that on the ACTUAL games. You'd find far better correlations than trying to reverse engineer someone's picks without even knowing what stats they use. Doubtful you'd have anywhere near enough data but I won't bother asking why because I know the answer.

<crickets>

See. this is what I mean about people not knowing what they're talking about. As in not knowing what they are talking about AT ALL.

Obviously, genius, people HAVE BEEN data mining actual results for decades. Pull up a Playbook magazine from 1990. I mean, holy hell, do some research or work or something. Learn to read. Holy fucking christ. You've had multi-millionaires running every imaginable data mining program on results forever. And not just from the good old USA. Half the Playbook staff was running these programs for 30 years.

If you don't know this, why would you even comment at all? It's doofus city with you and sports betting.

Jesus, you are out of your depth. It's okay to be out of your depth. But you don't acknowledge you're out of your depth.

You are using data mining to cover many different things. Yes, everyone knows others piggyback off other's plays.

I can tell you a person who does this really successfully. Goes around LV, plays in homesgames and such, finds people who will be beards, offer beard services to known sharps and also uses their plays. I wouldn't really call that "data-mining" but you do.

Your whole theory is that Dan is not an AP (which is why people assumed he was stupid). I am near positive he is an AP of sorts. Your whole point was people assume he is stupid because he "is not an AP". That was fundamentally flawed.

And why would I comment? Because I once wrote some very advanced software that *ACTUALLY* data-mined a rather large set of data. It was based around gambling but I have no interest in discussing it.

And of course you didn't answer my question.. lol.. hide behind the insults thinking that is going to work on anyone with an IQ above 100.

Anyway, at least Kewl respects you. Good job. <wink>

[accountinquestion]

Why would they give away their picks?

Maybe they are successful people who can win at sports betting without it being important to them or even any sort of significant income. Maybe it is more for funnsies.

The beyond idiotic portion comes from not understanding this. The person who can't understand this simple concept is the mentally challenged one.

I lol at this idea people reverse engineering contest picks. If they're running these picks under every algorithm available I'd have to wonder why they don't just use that on the ACTUAL games. You'd find far better correlations than trying to reverse engineer someone's picks without even knowing what stats they use. Doubtful you'd have anywhere near enough data but I won't bother asking why because I know the answer.

<crickets>

See. this is what I mean about people not knowing what they're talking about. As in not knowing what they are talking about AT ALL.

Obviously, genius, people HAVE BEEN data mining actual results for decades. Pull up a Playbook magazine from 1990. I mean, holy hell, do some research or work or something. Learn to read. Holy fucking christ. You've had multi-millionaires running every imaginable data mining program on results forever. And not just from the good old USA. Half the Playbook staff was running these programs for 30 years.

If you don't know this, why would you even comment at all? It's doofus city with you and sports betting.

Jesus, you are out of your depth. It's okay to be out of your depth. But you don't acknowledge you're out of your depth. It is truly un-fucking-believable what you don't know.

lul... Doofus City... well you finally understand who accountinquestion is or at least you finally posted about it!
I'm not onboard nor do I condone your use of Holy F--- C Word... not nice, not nice at all.
Thou Shalt Not Take the Lord's Name in Vain and you did it twice in this post.
Pray for forgiveness!

Have you figured out how to calculate the probability of 2 coin-flips both landing on a known outcome?

[Dan Druff]

I think you have done and are doing very well Druff. Especially for a stated recreational type bettor. I have been fortunate enough to piggyback on probably 2/3's of your picks.

just a couple of my thoughts:

Pro Basketball is incredibly hard to pick sides with points. Sometimes there is a ton of points scored in the last 4 minutes, of a game that mean nothing as far as who wins, but does flip the point wager. Like a team favored by 8 or 9, winning by 15-16 at the 3 or 4 minute mark and wins by 6. betting with the spreads is just too difficult. I think you can do a little something with point totals, but even that can get hairy with a ton of points scored at the end of the game that means nothing. One thing I have has some success with is betting the total for one team. Like a lakers over 114. That kind of trend seems to hold true to form a little more.

And while you do fairly well in baseball, Dan Druff, I have always thought you put too much emphasis on the starting pitchers, both betting with a hot pitcher and fading a pitcher that is struggling. Starting pitchers just don't pitch deep anymore. 5, 6 innings at most. There is a lot that happens in the later innings. I am sure you consider each teams bullpen strengths and weaknesses, but in this day and age, that might be as important as the starting pitchers. If you are going to put so much emphasis on starting pitchers, both backing and fading, you might want to consider the 5 inning lines more than you do.

Again, I have had some success playing just one teams total run amounts for both games and 5 inning lines. A little better with the games. Like the Texas Rangers. I will take the Rangers over 4.5, even over 5, every chance I get. They average over 6 runs a game. That kind of thing.

But again, you are doing great. And I appreciate your picks.

I go with first 5 inning bets sometimes, when I think the outcome of the bet will be more related to the first 5 than the entire game.

Today I actually had a tough choice whether to go first-5 with the under on Texas/Houston. There were good arguments for both sides of this. One problem with first-5 is that you pay more juice. Not only are there no low-juice sites for first 5, the basic line has a 20-cent spread rather than 10-cent. Books are afraid to offer first-5 at a 10-cent line, fearing the sharps can beat that too easily. I feel like a ploppy paying 20c juice, which is why I don't usually do first 5, but in some cases it's warranted, especially on dog picks where 20c juice isn't as bad.

Bullpens do matter, but that's already cooked into the basic game line. I do use bullpen strength as a factor when deciding NOT to do first-5, such as a team with a good 8th/9th reliever combo where the starter is only likely to go 5-6 innings. In those spots, paying the first 5 juice is definitely a mistake.

[Dan Druff]

I'm not going to share my NFL strategy just yet. We will see if it works again in 2023-24. I am willing to concede that I possibly just got really lucky.

Well, I did get really lucky. There's no way to post a 54-32-2, +25.89 units record without a lot of luck in your favor. But can I win again this upcoming season, albeit at a lesser clip? We will have to see.

I posted portions of the baseball betting strategy because I decided to open up a bit and share that. The main point I was trying to raise is that it's easier these days to access useful betting info, given the explosion of daily fantasy sports. With so many people doing the work to analyze advanced metrics, especially of starting pitchers, you can get this stuff quickly, whereas in the past it would be a tremendous time and effort commitment.

I used to struggle in baseball after June 1, because I mostly relied upon incorrectly lined underdogs. Those tend to be gone by June 1, and most of the dog lines set tend to be a lot sharper, especially in the era of tanking and rebuilding. Now I have enough data to where I can remain competitive after June 1, and even before that, I am less reliant upon dog games.

[redietz]

Why would they give away their picks?

Maybe they are successful people who can win at sports betting without it being important to them or even any sort of significant income. Maybe it is more for funnsies.

The beyond idiotic portion comes from not understanding this. The person who can't understand this simple concept is the mentally challenged one.

I lol at this idea people reverse engineering contest picks. If they're running these picks under every algorithm available I'd have to wonder why they don't just use that on the ACTUAL games. You'd find far better correlations than trying to reverse engineer someone's picks without even knowing what stats they use. Doubtful you'd have anywhere near enough data but I won't bother asking why because I know the answer.

<crickets>

See. this is what I mean about people not knowing what they're talking about. As in not knowing what they are talking about AT ALL.

Obviously, genius, people HAVE BEEN data mining actual results for decades. Pull up a Playbook magazine from 1990. I mean, holy hell, do some research or work or something. Learn to read. Holy fucking christ. You've had multi-millionaires running every imaginable data mining program on results forever. And not just from the good old USA. Half the Playbook staff was running these programs for 30 years.

If you don't know this, why would you even comment at all? It's doofus city with you and sports betting.

Jesus, you are out of your depth. It's okay to be out of your depth. But you don't acknowledge you're out of your depth.

You are using data mining to cover many different things. Yes, everyone knows others piggyback off other's plays.

I can tell you a person who does this really successfully. Goes around LV, plays in homesgames and such, finds people who will be beards, offer beard services to known sharps and also uses their plays. I wouldn't really call that "data-mining" but you do.

Your whole theory is that Dan is not an AP (which is why people assumed he was stupid). I am near positive he is an AP of sorts. Your whole point was people assume he is stupid because he "is not an AP". That was fundamentally flawed.

And why would I comment? Because I once wrote some very advanced software that *ACTUALLY* data-mined a rather large set of data. It was based around gambling but I have no interest in discussing it.

And of course you didn't answer my question.. lol.. hide behind the insults thinking that is going to work on anyone with an IQ above 100.

Anyway, at least Kewl respects you. Good job. <wink>

Yeah, go and find where I said one bad thing about Dan's handicapping. If you can't, you're a flat-out liar. There's an intelligence and a patience behind what Dan is doing. For some sports, notably post-Covid NBA and hoops, it's not working as well because it just wasn't going to. Covid was a unique point in time and created opportunities and angles that are not going to be there now.

But go ahead and find a couple of quotes where I said something, anything, negative about the way Dan is doing things. Good luck with that. If you don't, you're a liar.

Secondly, the Playbook staff has been data mining all results for all sports for 30 years. It's clear you haven't read a single damn Playbook annual in the last 30 years or you would realize this.

Third, the guy I'm sitting with in the Retro Road Trip Thread (a Boeing VP) would program circles around you, as would Mark Lawrence, Jr. at Playbook.

[accountinquestion]

See. this is what I mean about people not knowing what they're talking about. As in not knowing what they are talking about AT ALL.

Obviously, genius, people HAVE BEEN data mining actual results for decades. Pull up a Playbook magazine from 1990. I mean, holy hell, do some research or work or something. Learn to read. Holy fucking christ. You've had multi-millionaires running every imaginable data mining program on results forever. And not just from the good old USA. Half the Playbook staff was running these programs for 30 years.

If you don't know this, why would you even comment at all? It's doofus city with you and sports betting.

Jesus, you are out of your depth. It's okay to be out of your depth. But you don't acknowledge you're out of your depth.

You are using data mining to cover many different things. Yes, everyone knows others piggyback off other's plays.

I can tell you a person who does this really successfully. Goes around LV, plays in homesgames and such, finds people who will be beards, offer beard services to known sharps and also uses their plays. I wouldn't really call that "data-mining" but you do.

Your whole theory is that Dan is not an AP (which is why people assumed he was stupid). I am near positive he is an AP of sorts. Your whole point was people assume he is stupid because he "is not an AP". That was fundamentally flawed.

And why would I comment? Because I once wrote some very advanced software that *ACTUALLY* data-mined a rather large set of data. It was based around gambling but I have no interest in discussing it.

And of course you didn't answer my question.. lol.. hide behind the insults thinking that is going to work on anyone with an IQ above 100.

Anyway, at least Kewl respects you. Good job. <wink>

Yeah, go and find where I said one bad thing about Dan's handicapping. If you can't, you're a flat-out liar. There's an intelligence and a patience behind what Dan is doing. For some sports, notably post-Covid NBA and hoops, it's not working as well because it just wasn't going to. Covid was a unique point in time and created opportunities and angles that are not going to be there now.

But go ahead and find a couple of quotes where I said something, anything, negative about the way Dan is doing things. Good luck with that. If you don't, you're a liar.

Secondly, the Playbook staff has been data mining all results for all sports for 30 years. It's clear you haven't read a single damn Playbook annual in the last 30 years or you would realize this.

Third, the guy I'm sitting with in the Retro Road Trip Thread (a Boeing VP) would program circles around you, as would Mark Lawrence, Jr. at Playbook.

Shit for brains I reread what I said a few times and nowhere did I imply you said something bad about Druff's handicapping. Your brains are so shit I can't even follow your thought process.

Someone asked Druff about his methodology. THen you said how stupid it is for thinking Druff should give away his prized secrets. You said people must think Druff is stupid because he is not an AP. Rubbish. The mental gymnastics you go through to keep up your identity are so insane you can't follow your own arguments.

Secondly, it seems you don't know what "data-mining" means when used by someone who actually does that stuff. It needs a large set of data. Contest results are not a large set of data. I would be very surprised if many data-scientists would call whatever they did as "data-mining" but perhaps?

You are right about me not reading Playboy. I just looked at the pictures.

I asked you why would anyone data-mine picks to determine what stats were used when they could just use the stats and actual results of the game to determine which stats are best. Of course silence like I said.

Always trying to demonstrate how smart you are by talking about your smart friends/departed wife/whatever.
Always avoiding answering when called out on your cluelessness.


You are good at finding angles to work in some anti-AP mumbo-jumbo and that seems to about the extent of any angle you can come up with.

Good stuff. Maybe the ex Boeing VP loves to hear all your old gangster stories.

Maybe you should ask him for a $500 loan so you're not homeless.

[AxelWolf]

T

I am looking forward to NFL season, as I had a tremendous record last year, some of which was luck, but I'm hoping was at least somewhat indicative that I knew what I was doing.

" knew what you were doing "

That's what I'm wondering, what is it that you are doing? What factors and criteria are going into your picks? Why do you think you have +EV. Can you walk us thought your process. What tools ans stats you use what things you are looking for etc.

Why would anyone share proprietary information? It would be beyond idiotic to do that.

One of the issues with competing in public contests is that people will run your plays through every algorithm imaginable to discover what it is you are doing and what subsets at which you are most effective. You will be data mined up, down, and sideways. This has been going on since the "70's, when a wealthy person would subscribe to dozens of handicapping services, then re-sell those picks as a "Consensus Service" that enabled clients to pick and choose whose plays they wanted. In the meantime, the Consensus Service owner would data mine all of the plays, including checking correlations between services for effectiveness.

When Billy Walters assembled roundtables of experts in individual sports (late 1990's and onward), he would have access to individual savants and data mine their plays while basically setting them up to compete with each other, while (of course) doing his best to not have them working with each other without his oversight.

Why would anyone who actually wins tell you how they are actually winning? Are sports handicappers supposed to be mentally challenged as opposed to most "APs?"

It's such a bizarre request, Axelwolf. What the hell are you thinking? Or do you believe people are just brain dead in general? I mean, can you imagine someone publicly asking you to lay out the specifics of what you are doing? LOL. What would your response be?

Evidently, the theory is that anyone not an "AP" is dumb as a rock.

I didn't know you were talking to me. I asked some legitimate questions, and to put it politely (you didn't), you basically said you were ignoring me /not answering questions or whatever.
Whatever the case, hopefully, you changed your mind.

What's bizarre is you think it's a bizarre question.
There are lots of sports handicappers that give out that type of information, some shout it from the rooftops, even when you don't want it. I have asked multiple pro sports bettors what, why, and how they gain an advantage and I think only 1 has ever balked. Guess what guys won't tell you how they are "winning"? ◄Guys who aren't actually winning(Guys like MDawg).

Obviously, someone doing something special like a promotion, bonus, unusual venue, outlier sport, or situation isn't going to give that information out and I probably wouldn't even ask publicly. That goes for any Advantage Play situation. But this is general handicapping, just like general BJ or VP. Advantage Players will give you the what, why, how, and what tools they gain an advantage, and even show the math. They might not tell you exactly where or about a particular promotion/ bonus, something unusual, some outlier machine, or a situation.



If Dan wanted to be secretive and proprietary, he wouldn't be giving out all his picks in the first place, unless of course, he wanted to get into the dirty world of selling picks, touting, and or some sports betting service con(Dan The Sportsman Druff). What's the difference between telling people your formula and giving out all your picks? If it's preservation he's concerned about, IMO when it comes to sports, it's much worse giving out your picks V.S. a formula because some people are not willing to put the time and effort in using that +EV(for argument's sake, call it +EV) information, but there are absolutely people who would be willing to take those +EV free picks and run with it.

I don't think people here really care about Billy Walters in regards to sports betting. None here are going to be like Billy Walters, he was an anomaly. People certainly might want to follow an average Jew +EV sports bettor.

Given Walters history, I'm confident I wouldn't want to be like him.


It looks like even Dan doesn't seem to think it's a bizarre request as it seems like he's willing to enlighten us once he confirms to himself he has an advantage.

[Half Smoke]

T

I am looking forward to NFL season, as I had a tremendous record last year, some of which was luck, but I'm hoping was at least somewhat indicative that I knew what I was doing.

" knew what you were doing "

That's what I'm wondering, what is it that you are doing? What factors and criteria are going into your picks? Why do you think you have +EV. Can you walk us thought your process. What tools ans stats you use what things you are looking for etc.

sounds like your looking for exactitudes

it's all about speculation - you think you're the King of the World for a few weeks and then you get knocked on your ass

things change fast and you haven't realized the change fast enough

doesn't mean you can't be a winner and have an edge - it just means you can't really be sure what your performance will be from year to year

we're very lucky to have Dan publicly posting his picks here - he's very sharp - I would speculate a 90% chance he will be profitable picking the NFL next season - couldn't say how profitable

.

[AxelWolf]

T

I am looking forward to NFL season, as I had a tremendous record last year, some of which was luck, but I'm hoping was at least somewhat indicative that I knew what I was doing.

" knew what you were doing "

That's what I'm wondering, what is it that you are doing? What factors and criteria are going into your picks? Why do you think you have +EV. Can you walk us thought your process. What tools ans stats you use what things you are looking for etc.

sounds like your looking for exactitudes

it's all about speculation - you think you're the King of the World for a few weeks and then you get knocked on your ass

things change fast and you haven't realized the change fast enough

doesn't mean you can't be a winner and have an edge - it just means you can't really be sure what your performance will be from year to year

we're very lucky to have Dan publicly posting his picks here - he's very sharp - I would speculate a 90% chance he will be profitable picking the NFL next season - couldn't say how profitable

.

No, I am looking for math and logic a reason why there's an advantage. I know when it comes to handicapping sports it's not like BJ, VP etc. where you can get calculate an exact edge but there needs to be some logic and math behind it.

If there's an edge to be had, I have no doubt Dan is the type of person who can find it. I truly hope he does have an edge, even if just a small one. A guaranteed small edge in sports where someone is doing all the work for you(especially NFL) is Huge to me.

Dan is the type of guy that will be upfront about it. He isn't taking a cut, offering a service, touting, recruiting investors, "buy me a coffee" link or anything like that. ◄◄Respect Because of that and who Dan is, I would be willing to bet his picks without reservations. Of course, I'll be sure I'm getting something extra to be assured I have an advantage either way.


I'm not impressed with someone's killer winning season, It's meaningless, someone could flip coins with Vig and have that happen. I have seen it all before, and as you said, they get knocked on their ass. That's the reason I asked my question I want to hear the logic/math/reason behind the method.

I understand why a tout/sports betting service/would be all pussy wet fawning over Dan after an NFL season like his last season. They live for a wet dream season like that, that's how they set the hook and make their money. They will forever use that anomaly as bait for the rest of their lives.

Perhaps this season I will use Dan's picks on 3 or 4 accounts using promotions etc and then give Dan access to those accounts at the end of the season to confirm the results. Meh, probably not since that sounds like a hassle. Also, if I get involved with something else I'll be skipping weeks.

[Half Smoke]

No, I am looking for math and logic a reason why there's an advantage.

there's logic - but it's speculative logic

2 different great cappers could easily (and often do ) pick on opposite sides of the same game

there's no mathematical calculation that can insure profitability in the short run or the long run

if there was such a thing it would be well known - and the books would know it too - and would adjust their lines accordingly

.

[mickeycrimm]

Yeah, go and find where I said one bad thing about Dan's handicapping. If you can't, you're a flat-out liar. There's an intelligence and a patience behind what Dan is doing. For some sports, notably post-Covid NBA and hoops, it's not working as well because it just wasn't going to. Covid was a unique point in time and created opportunities and angles that are not going to be there now.

But go ahead and find a couple of quotes where I said something, anything, negative about the way Dan is doing things. Good luck with that. If you don't, you're a liar.

Secondly, the Playbook staff has been data mining all results for all sports for 30 years. It's clear you haven't read a single damn Playbook annual in the last 30 years or you would realize this.

Third, the guy I'm sitting with in the Retro Road Trip Thread (a Boeing VP) would program circles around you, as would Mark Lawrence, Jr. at Playbook.

You've been very gracious about Druff's handicapping abilities. That begs the question of why you've been so caustic about other handicapper's that have been featured in this thread, like Spanky, Krack, Capt. Jack, Rufus Peabody, plusEVnalytics. You maligned and belittled them at every opportunity. Why do you not take the same approach with Druff? Do you have a hands off policy when it comes to Druff? Are you kissing Druff's ass?

[Dan Druff]

I didn't mean to become the topic of this thread.

I post my picks because I want everyone to see how my journey into spread/moneyline sports handicapping is going. I am not good at props, but will sometimes bet other people's stuff. Those I don't bother posting here, since they're not my picks. Props are where the real money is at, but it's hard to get action on some of them, and there's also a lot of variance.

[AxelWolf]

I didn't mean to become the topic of this thread.

I post my picks because I want everyone to see how my journey into spread/moneyline sports handicapping is going. I am not good at props, but will sometimes bet other people's stuff. Those I don't bother posting here, since they're not my picks. Props are where the real money is at, but it's hard to get action on some of them, and there's also a lot of variance.

Bull Fucking shit Dan, Collage Football is where it's at. Why are you Jewing us?

[Half Smoke]

.
re NFL betting

I believe that a great deal of unpredictability means that the public pick - the fave - ats - will overall do poorly over a number of games

and strong predictability means that the public pick - the fave - ats - will do well over a number of games

to test out my theory I used NFL historical data - see link - and looked at the first 2 weeks of every NFL season for the past 10 years

I believe that in the first 2 weeks of the NFL season there is much unpredictability - new players on each team as well as some key players are now a year older and other things also

the faves did not have a winning record in even one single first 2 week period over the last 10 years

the faves won 140 games and the dogs won 183 games ats - pushes were not considered

in the first 2 weeks of the last 10 years the underdogs won 56.6% of the games ats which translates into a r.o.i. of about 8% for anyone who bet on all of the underdogs during that period

8% is far from spectacular but it's a fairly healthy margin

then I looked at weeks 13 and 14 of the last 10 years believing that the abilities of the teams would by then be well known and that there would be strong predictability

for the last 10 years in weeks 13 and 14 the favorite won 164 games and lost 139 - the fave won 54% of their games ats

this is doing no handicapping at all - other then speculating about the lack or presence of predictability

I tend to believe that blindly betting on faves during any period is not a good idea - but blindly betting on dogs during the first 2 weeks of the season is likely to be profitable



https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-game-odds/

[AxelWolf]

.
re NFL betting

I believe that a great deal of unpredictability means that the public pick - the fave - ats - will overall do poorly over a number of games

and strong predictability means that the public pick - the fave - ats - will do well over a number of games

to test out my theory I used NFL historical data - see link - and looked at the first 2 weeks of every NFL season for the past 10 years

I believe that in the first 2 weeks of the NFL season there is much unpredictability - new players on each team as well as some key players are now a year older and other things also

the faves did not have a winning record in even one single first 2 week period over the last 10 years

the faves won 140 games and the dogs won 183 games ats - pushes were not considered

in the first 2 weeks of the last 10 years the underdogs won 56.6% of the games ats which translates into a r.o.i. of about 8% for anyone who bet on all of the underdogs during that period

8% is far from spectacular but it's a fairly healthy margin

then I looked at weeks 13 and 14 of the last 10 years believing that the abilities of the teams would by then be well known and that there would be strong predictability

for the last 10 years in weeks 13 and 14 the favorite won 164 games and lost 139 - the fave won 54% of their games ats

this is doing no handicapping at all - other then speculating about the lack or presence of predictability

I tend to believe that blindly betting on faves during any period is not a good idea - but blindly betting on dogs during the first 2 weeks of the season is likely to be profitable



https://www.sportsoddshistory.com/nfl-game-odds/

Good stuff, good stuff.

What about pre-season, any stats on pre-season?

[Half Smoke]

Good stuff, good stuff.

What about pre-season, any stats on pre-season?

thanks - I thought about that too - I would think much unpredictability - the link has pre-season - I'm lucky to have found that great link - great info - maybe I will look at that one day when I have some energy

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[Half Smoke]

Good stuff, good stuff.

What about pre-season, any stats on pre-season?

too late to edit my above post - the main link does not have pre-season

but I found a different one that has 2 years of data

underdogs went 52-44 - 54% wins - a bet on all of these pre-season dogs would have realized a r.o.i. of 3.36%

what is also very interesting - although it's not a large sample size is this:

underdogs of 3.5 to 5 points covered 60% of the time

underdogs of 5.5 + points covered 68% of the time

when I have more energy I'm going to go back with the other link and look at the dogs of 5 points or more in the first 2 weeks of the last 10 seasons



https://www.numberfire.com/nfl/news/...d-total-trends


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[Half Smoke]

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just looked at 20 years of the big dogs_____ 5 + points and greater for the 1st week of the season

wasn't an improvement over all dogs

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[accountinquestion]

I was curious about this and I am staying near casinos until end of August. So I look at Draftkings and they don't seem to take bets on preseason? I don't get this. They have bets up for regular season. What am I missing?