Professional Sportsbetting

[Rob.Singer]

Well, good to know I don't analyze statistics. LOL. Mickey, you are parading your ignorance. Not the first time. You know absolutely nothing about me, and you refuse to take what I say at face value.

I have reported here, many times, that Mr. Walters assembled roundtables of experts and tried to extract "power ratings" from each of them. Why power ratings? Well, the answer is obvious. God almighty, mickey, have some brains. Seriously, if I die tomorrow, I would feel badly that you didn't actually learn anything from me. He also tried to keep the experts separate from each other. Gee, I wonder why.

I'm pretty sure I posted on here that one of my first conversations with one of Mr. Walters' lap dogs had to do with him wanting to buy my power ratings or pay me to formalize everything I do into power ratings. We had a conversation. I think I shocked the dude. He assumed, because I was 40-something at the time, that I had been doing this for fewer years than he had. He was way wrong.

As I was saying, it's good I don't analyze statistics. Now if mickey actually asked anyone who knew me or worked with me if I analyzed statistics, well, it would be a pretty funny discussion. I used to be able to do a parlor trick. Sunday LA Times -- all the college stats in column form listed game by game. Give me roughly two hours with it. I would then hand the paper over and, with no notes, tell people to quiz me. Not rain man stuff, but relatively precise ballpark accuracy (as within 10-15 yards each category of stat for every team).

I can't do that anymore, but I'm not exactly stat-averse.

Account, there is an established sports betting world that is many times larger than all the alleged AP bullshit historically combined. More people, more history, more expertise, and actual fact-based histories. Real people, not anonymous whack jobs alleging they know this and that without "reading carefully and thoroughly."

I was offered a small spot in a movie last night. No kidding. I was modest and said they didn't have to do that; I was just glad to help. But account, tell you what, if you want me to take a spot in a gangster-related film, I'll do so just for you. Right now, I'm just a consultant, but if you want me to pop up in the movie, so be it.

We can start a separate thread. My role would be shot in LV because the middle third of the film takes place in LV. Let me know if you want me to accept the role. I await your expert decision.

And account, for the gazillionth time, being monitored is not a "tournament." It's your actual plays for a season. Those McCusker Report pages in the Retro Road Trip thread are not a "tournament." They are annual results for top public handicappers published in book form.

Mickey, here's another great idea. Before declaring things about me sans evidence, why don't you track down people who worked with me? Ask them and report here. Not that hard. Freshman journalism stuff. Honestly, if you sit down with the Wise Guys, or Fezzik for that matter, or possibly Anthony Curtis (I assume he knows me), or Marc Lawrence, or Phil Steele, and say that "Bob Dietz doesn't use statistics," you'll be laughed out of Dodge.

You just can't make this shit up. LOL! Fucking Ditz! He went on and on about how you can't get anywhere using statistics. Told us we're dumasses if we try. I already knew Walters was using computer programs but waited until the book came out to confirm it because I knew the move ditz would pull "You don't know jackshit!"

So when I post up what Walters does, here comes ditz with the "I use statistics all the time, don't you know that? I can quote stats off the top of my head" routine. LOL! Fricking dunce. To late, ditz. You already made your bed when you said stats are worthless. So quit lying about it.

And stop with the nonsense of your pea brain beating Walter's computers. You're embarrassing yourself.

Oh, and tracking people down to ask about you? I tracked down Bob Dancer and Richard Munchkin. They said they don't think you are qualified for a podcast on gambling.

So better try your luck in the movies. You got no shot in sports betting.

Mickey, you're lying though your teeth, and what's worse, you know it, or you would have plucked direct quotes demonstrating me saying that I "don't use statistics." Go ahead and shop every blessed one of my 6000 posts. You won't even find anything close.

Cumulative statistics are of limited value in college football due to the disparities of the teams and the limited schedules. Everyone knows that. They are, however, still required knowledge. Used incorrectly, they can be self-sabotaging. But that's why they pay me the big money.

By the way, Dancer and Munchkin (and the LVA in general) are not exactly ground zero for sports betting expertise. I love Dancer and Munchkin. I will shoot them an email and quote you. We'll see what Munch has to say. I suggest you do the same.

Rock bottom.

No wonder your w......oh nevermind. You'll just jump in your spaceship and land over at Dan's again, while he's wearing headphones designed to drown out the red noise.

[mickeycrimm]

GWAE had on at least a couple dozen noted sports bettors over the years. Ditz didn't make the cut. I gave him a good endorsement but he couldn't make it past the vetting process. That made me look like shit.

Go ahead and contact GWAE, Ditz. But remember, I already know what they said. They said they would not have you on. That says it all.

[redietz]

GWAE had on at least a couple dozen noted sports bettors over the years. Ditz didn't make the cut. I gave him a good endorsement but he couldn't make it past the vetting process. That made me look like shit.

Go ahead and contact GWAE, Ditz. But remember, I already know what they said. They said they would not have you on. That says it all.

LOL. Yeah, that makes sense, mickey. I made the Billy Walters cut but not GWAE. I guess the guy who was the "Tipsters or Gypsters" college football profit #1 three out of the final five years couldn't make the cut.

Still waiting on those direct quotes regarding my use of stats. Don't be shy. One would think, with 8000 of my posts, you'd find one decent quote. Maybe not. Good luck with that.

You do seem to have an aversion to actually quoting people. All paraphrasing and taking mickey's word for it. Good gig if people actually buy it. You should run for Prez.

[AxelWolf]

GWAE had on at least a couple dozen noted sports bettors over the years. Ditz didn't make the cut. I gave him a good endorsement but he couldn't make it past the vetting process. That made me look like shit.

Go ahead and contact GWAE, Ditz. But remember, I already know what they said. They said they would not have you on. That says it all.

LOL. Yeah, that makes sense, mickey. I made the Billy Walters cut but not GWAE. I guess the guy who was the "Tipsters or Gypsters" college football profit #1 three out of the final five years couldn't make the cut.

Still waiting on those direct quotes regarding my use of stats. Don't be shy. One would think, with 8000 of my posts, you'd find one decent quote. Maybe not. Good luck with that.

You do seem to have an aversion to actually quoting people. All paraphrasing and taking mickey's word for it. Good gig if people actually buy it. You should run for Prez.

I can ask Anthony Curtis whatever. I don't really know what question I should ask.

[accountinquestion]

GWAE had on at least a couple dozen noted sports bettors over the years. Ditz didn't make the cut. I gave him a good endorsement but he couldn't make it past the vetting process. That made me look like shit.

Go ahead and contact GWAE, Ditz. But remember, I already know what they said. They said they would not have you on. That says it all.

LOL. Yeah, that makes sense, mickey. I made the Billy Walters cut but not GWAE. I guess the guy who was the "Tipsters or Gypsters" college football profit #1 three out of the final five years couldn't make the cut.

Still waiting on those direct quotes regarding my use of stats. Don't be shy. One would think, with 8000 of my posts, you'd find one decent quote. Maybe not. Good luck with that.

You do seem to have an aversion to actually quoting people. All paraphrasing and taking mickey's word for it. Good gig if people actually buy it. You should run for Prez.

Where does Stanford recommend ivermectin? Seems a fair question given your demands of others.

[tableplay]

Go ahead and contact GWAE, Ditz. But remember, I already know what they said. They said they would not have you on. That says it all.

Mickey, it looks like Richard has a new podcast with a loose format which he hosts by himself. So far he has made 6 episodes. Here's the first one. Please disregard this post if you were already aware of this.

[AxelWolf]

Go ahead and contact GWAE, Ditz. But remember, I already know what they said. They said they would not have you on. That says it all.

Mickey, it looks like Richard has a new podcast with a loose format which he hosts by himself. So far he has made 6 episodes. Here's the first one. Please disregard this post if you were already aware of this.

An interview would be meaningless as far as getting to the bottom of anything.
Those podcasts are not dedicated to getting to the bottom of things. They are not meant to ask hardball questions, out B.S. or do any significant research on someone's claims.

[tableplay]

Go ahead and contact GWAE, Ditz. But remember, I already know what they said. They said they would not have you on. That says it all.

Mickey, it looks like Richard has a new podcast with a loose format which he hosts by himself. So far he has made 6 episodes. Here's the first one. Please disregard this post if you were already aware of this.

An interview would be meaningless as far as getting to the bottom of anything.
Those podcasts are not dedicated to getting to the bottom of things. They are not meant to ask hardball questions, out B.S. or do any significant research on someone's claims.

Yes that's right. The purpose of my post was to inform Mickey that Richard has a new podcast. As a former top guest of Richard's and Bob's defunct GWAE, I thought it would of interest to Mickey.

[AxelWolf]

I'm interested in any and all legitimate(backed up with statistics/math) +EV Sports Betting situations. Mainly for bonus churning. Perhaps some handicapped situations actually seem logical.

HalfSmoke perhaps a revising of Away Dogs.

[Half Smoke]

I'm interested in any and all legitimate(backed up with statistics/math) +EV Sports Betting situations. Mainly for bonus churning. Perhaps some handicapped situations actually seem logical.

HalfSmoke perhaps a revising of Away Dogs.

I thought maybe you missed this post so I linked it - the one at 11:57

this is the best I've ever come up with by far - almost 400 games were tracked

still, I can't be 100% sure it's not just an anomaly - you never can with sports betting -

I'm not going to post these games - they're easy to find at covers.com and lots of other places - not much work at all to find them -



https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...299#post159299


.

[Half Smoke]

.

Dan was fabulous last year with his NFL picks going 54-32-2 +25.89 units

that's the best I've ever seen anyone do with that many picks - he did way, way better than the top guy at the WOV contest

if I was a betting man - which I'm not anymore - I would be willing to bet that he'll be profitable on the upcoming season


.

[mickeycrimm]

Go ahead and contact GWAE, Ditz. But remember, I already know what they said. They said they would not have you on. That says it all.

Mickey, it looks like Richard has a new podcast with a loose format which he hosts by himself. So far he has made 6 episodes. Here's the first one. Please disregard this post if you were already aware of this.

Thanks, Tableplay. I'll give them a listen.

[mickeycrimm]

I have reported here, many times, that Mr. Walters assembled roundtables of experts and tried to extract "power ratings" from each of them. Why power ratings? Well, the answer is obvious. God almighty, mickey, have some brains. Seriously, if I die tomorrow, I would feel badly that you didn't actually learn anything from me. He also tried to keep the experts separate from each other. Gee, I wonder why.

Walter's separated the experts from each other by sitting them down at a round table? A stroke of genius! You're right, ditz. I haven't been using my brain. I should've thought of sitting them down at a roundtable to hide them for each other. You sure are smart, ditz.

[AxelWolf]

I have reported here, many times, that Mr. Walters assembled roundtables of experts and tried to extract "power ratings" from each of them. Why power ratings? Well, the answer is obvious. God almighty, mickey, have some brains. Seriously, if I die tomorrow, I would feel badly that you didn't actually learn anything from me. He also tried to keep the experts separate from each other. Gee, I wonder why.

Walter's separated the experts from each other by sitting them down at a round table? A stroke of genius! You're right, ditz. I haven't been using my brain. I should've thought of sitting them down at a roundtable to hide them for each other. You sure are smart, ditz.

Can someone explain a sports power rating, how it's determined, and how that equates to profitability? Elo I understand, well I understand that a 2100 Elo will mop the floor with an 1800 Elo religiously.

[Half Smoke]

Good stuff, good stuff.

What about pre-season, any stats on pre-season?

but I found a different one that has 2 years of data

underdogs went 52-44 - 54% wins - a bet on all of these pre-season dogs would have realized a r.o.i. of 3.36%

this year I tracked pre-season dogs as going 27-21


I think it's a pretty fair statement to make that as far as the pre-season goes - the betting public really doesn't have a clue

I don't even think they know what % of the game the teams will play their starters - and as far as predicting the performance of the 2nd string - no chance at all to do that effectively - forget about it

and that is obviously not the case for later during the season


there were some amusing results:


week 1 Carolina was favored by 3 points over the Jets - they lost 27-0

the 49ers were favored by 4 over the Raiders - they lost 34-7

in week 2 the Texans were favored by 2 over the Marlins - they lost 28-3__________________(-:\

.

[AxelWolf]

Good stuff, good stuff.

What about pre-season, any stats on pre-season?

but I found a different one that has 2 years of data

underdogs went 52-44 - 54% wins - a bet on all of these pre-season dogs would have realized a r.o.i. of 3.36%

this year I tracked pre-season dogs as going 27-21


there were some amusing results:


week 1 Carolina was favored by 3 points over the Jets - they lost 27-0

the 49ers were favored by 4 over the Raiders - they lost 34-7

in week 2 the Texans were favored by 2 over the Marlins - they lost 28-3__________________(-:\

.

I was thinking about doing that method for preseason *facepalm

I loaded up some sports accounts for 110%-150%+ bonuses(+ because they give you some other crap too) I just needed to get some action in. I said fuck it and just bet a bunch of overs for a few hundred each(I'm limited on pre-season games at one place) I think I went 1 and 7 or something like that, one returned my money for some reason LOL. I got it all back and then some on MMA. I enjoyed that because my wife enjoys watching MMA UFC and even some Boxing. She will watch football with some interest but doesn't enjoy watching an entire game. She did get into XFL a little.

I then just took all the NFL dogs and a few overs. I haven't checked to see my results yet. I'm waiting for them to up my limits and decide what I want to do. I might try to get some B&M arbs off with bigger bets and lock up some profits. I just suck at looking for and finding that stuff. I do know someone who is very good at that.

[AxelWolf]

P.S. I broke down and got ESPN+ With the Disney + and Hulu package. I got sick of dealing with crackstream and buffstream to watch certain things not on cable.

[Half Smoke]

but I found a different one that has 2 years of data

underdogs went 52-44 - 54% wins - a bet on all of these pre-season dogs would have realized a r.o.i. of 3.36%

this year I tracked pre-season dogs as going 27-21


there were some amusing results:


week 1 Carolina was favored by 3 points over the Jets - they lost 27-0

the 49ers were favored by 4 over the Raiders - they lost 34-7

in week 2 the Texans were favored by 2 over the Marlins - they lost 28-3__________________(-:\

.

I was thinking about doing that method for preseason *facepalm

I loaded up some sports accounts for 110%-150%+ bonuses(+ because they give you some other crap too) I just needed to get some action in. I said fuck it and just bet a bunch of overs for a few hundred each(I'm limited on pre-season games at one place) I think I went 1 and 7 or something like that, one returned my money for some reason LOL. I got it all back and then some on MMA. I enjoyed that because my wife enjoys watching MMA UFC and even some Boxing. She will watch football with some interest but doesn't enjoy watching an entire game. She did get into XFL a little.

I then just took all the NFL dogs and a few overs. I haven't checked to see my results yet. I'm waiting for them to up my limits and decide what I want to do. I might try to get some B&M arbs off with bigger bets and lock up some profits. I just suck at looking for and finding that stuff. I do know someone who is very good at that.

still a chance for the first 2 weeks betting on the dogs thing - if it crashes it will be the first time in 11 years - iirc one year was a push - which means losing the vig



from my post last year:


"the faves did not have a winning record in even one single first 2 week period over the last 10 years

the faves won 140 games and the dogs won 183 games ats - pushes were not considered

in the first 2 weeks of the last 10 years the underdogs won 56.6% of the games ats which translates into a r.o.i. of about 8% for anyone who bet on all of the underdogs during that period"

[AxelWolf]

this year I tracked pre-season dogs as going 27-21


there were some amusing results:


week 1 Carolina was favored by 3 points over the Jets - they lost 27-0

the 49ers were favored by 4 over the Raiders - they lost 34-7

in week 2 the Texans were favored by 2 over the Marlins - they lost 28-3__________________(-:\

.

I was thinking about doing that method for preseason *facepalm

I loaded up some sports accounts for 110%-150%+ bonuses(+ because they give you some other crap too) I just needed to get some action in. I said fuck it and just bet a bunch of overs for a few hundred each(I'm limited on pre-season games at one place) I think I went 1 and 7 or something like that, one returned my money for some reason LOL. I got it all back and then some on MMA. I enjoyed that because my wife enjoys watching MMA UFC and even some Boxing. She will watch football with some interest but doesn't enjoy watching an entire game. She did get into XFL a little.

I then just took all the NFL dogs and a few overs. I haven't checked to see my results yet. I'm waiting for them to up my limits and decide what I want to do. I might try to get some B&M arbs off with bigger bets and lock up some profits. I just suck at looking for and finding that stuff. I do know someone who is very good at that.

still a chance for the first 2 weeks betting on the dogs thing - if it crashes it will be the first time in 11 years - iirc one year was a push - which means losing the vig



from my post last year:


"the faves did not have a winning record in even one single first 2 week period over the last 10 years

the faves won 140 games and the dogs won 183 games ats - pushes were not considered

in the first 2 weeks of the last 10 years the underdogs won 56.6% of the games ats which translates into a r.o.i. of about 8% for anyone who bet on all of the underdogs during that period"

Facepalm, I didn't realize pre-season dogs were so strong. It's probably been noted(by you?) but I forgot.

A push is good for me since it counts as action, I believe. I need to find out for sure that will come in handy in certain sports I believe, not really something I thought about until someone recently mentioned it.

[mickeycrimm]

redietz,

Colorado +20.5 against TCU this saturday

Who do you like?