Professional Sportsbetting

[redietz]

redietz,

Colorado +20.5 against TCU this saturday

Who do you like?

Impossible to play. TCU was stripped on offense and was likely overrated last year. This year's QB, however, was originally supposed to start all games until dinged, when Duggan, the previous two-year starter, regained his job. Colorado is completely revamped in terms of personnel, which is a plus (I guess), but really -- importing SWAC players is more mirage than boon. The TCU defense should shut them down, which leads to trying to anticipate when the substitutes come in...for both teams. There is a (strong) possibility TCU blasts their first three opponents by pinball scores. In fact, there is a chance they rampage through everybody until the @Texas Tech.

The great unknown is the rule changes, which -- due to the clock running -- are allegedly going to hack six to seven plays apiece off each team. Number one -- that's a lot of missing plays. Two -- those are formal estimates. My own reviewing of the process opening week strongly suggests more plays will be missing than formally projected.

So with all of these monster lines this week -- very, very tough to figure the effects of surgically removing all of these plays. I have my own suspicions about which brackets of spreads will be affected the most, but no sense sharing them with someone (and a general VCT audience) that's been demonstrating such little professional respect.

What tells you all you need to know about this VCT crew is that I win an NFL contest versus 1300 other people, which frankly nobody on here did last year, and which nobody here likely did ever, and I did not get a single kudo, which is unbelievable. I made many positive statements regarding Rob and Todd's handicapping last year. I win a contest versus 1300 people, and not one positive comment regarding it. Just nonsense about "tournaments mean nothing." It's pretty funny to have a bunch of anonymous bullshitters playing at being "APs," and somebody does the nigh impossible and gets zero acknowledgement. Very funny and so apropos VCT.

Hint: if you're not up on the rule changes and effects, take the college season off, because you do not know what you are doing.

Summary -- and the reason I share this is I'm not betting the game -- if you put a gun to my head, I take TCU. I think Colorado's offensive line is probably overmatched. They are going to have a hard time. The key question will be an inexperienced TCU offensive line against a jumbled together front seven on defense for Colorado. Unknown what that will look like. Always hard to lay 20 opening week with a brand new offensive line. Some pundits are famously predicting TCU to hang a "half a hundred" on Colorado. Personally, I think it more likely that they shut Colorado down and have the QB running for his life all day, but if TCU goes bang-bang-bang first three or four possessions, yeah, the game could get out of hand and pinball-ish.

I have to make forced choice decisions on this game for the Northbet contest anyway, so people will see who I took after the fact. Likely TCU, even though they are not nearly as good as last year's squad, which was not as good as they appeared. And I'm a TCU proponent, as they are the team I had at 100-1 when Cam Newton versus Oregon screwed their undefeated TCU asses out of a playoff game many moons ago.

I will probably be doing a podcast summarizing a game or two each week, sometimes before the game, sometimes regarding games after they've been played. It's more of a coaches' perspective than a handicapping show. Check YouTube in October to see if anything pops. Whether I do it depends partly on the SAG strike, as people who are off have downtime, which I will beg, hire, and steal to do the proposed show since I have never done my own podcast.

Have a good season. And yes, Rob, that includes you. I always root for the player.

[Treeshade]

redietz,

Colorado +20.5 against TCU this saturday

Who do you like?

Impossible to play. TCU was stripped on offense and was likely overrated last year. This year's QB, however, was originally supposed to start all games until dinged, when Duggan, the previous two-year starter, regained his job. Colorado is completely revamped in terms of personnel, which is a plus (I guess), but really -- importing SWAC players is more mirage than boon. The TCU defense should shut them down, which leads to trying to anticipate when the substitutes come in...for both teams. There is a (strong) possibility TCU blasts their first three opponents by pinball scores. In fact, there is a chance they rampage through everybody until the @Texas Tech.

The great unknown is the rule changes, which -- due to the clock running -- are allegedly going to hack six to seven plays apiece off each team. Number one -- that's a lot of missing plays. Two -- those are formal estimates. My own reviewing of the process opening week strongly suggests more plays will be missing than formally projected.

So with all of these monster lines this week -- very, very tough to figure the effects of surgically removing all of these plays. I have my own suspicions about which brackets of spreads will be affected the most, but no sense sharing them with someone (and a general VCT audience) that's been demonstrating such little professional respect.

What tells you all you need to know about this VCT crew is that I win an NFL contest versus 1300 other people, which frankly nobody on here did last year, and which nobody here likely did ever, and I did not get a single kudo, which is unbelievable. I made many positive statements regarding Rob and Todd's handicapping last year. I win a contest versus 1300 people, and not one positive comment regarding it. Just nonsense about "tournaments mean nothing." It's pretty funny to have a bunch of anonymous bullshitters playing at being "APs," and somebody does the nigh impossible and gets zero acknowledgement. Very funny and so apropos VCT.

Hint: if you're not up on the rule changes and effects, take the college season off, because you do not know what you are doing.

Summary -- and the reason I share this is I'm not betting the game -- if you put a gun to my head, I take TCU. I think Colorado's offensive line is probably overmatched. They are going to have a hard time. The key question will be an inexperienced TCU offensive line against a jumbled together front seven on defense for Colorado. Unknown what that will look like. Always hard to lay 20 opening week with a brand new offensive line. Some pundits are famously predicting TCU to hang a "half a hundred" on Colorado. Personally, I think it more likely that they shut Colorado down and have the QB running for his life all day, but if TCU goes bang-bang-bang first three or four possessions, yeah, the game could get out of hand and pinball-ish.

I have to make forced choice decisions on this game for the Northbet contest anyway, so people will see who I took after the fact. Likely TCU, even though they are not nearly as good as last year's squad, which was not as good as they appeared. And I'm a TCU proponent, as they are the team I had at 100-1 when Cam Newton versus Oregon screwed their undefeated TCU asses out of a playoff game many moons ago.

I will probably be doing a podcast summarizing a game or two each week, sometimes before the game, sometimes regarding games after they've been played. It's more of a coaches' perspective than a handicapping show. Check YouTube in October to see if anything pops. Whether I do it depends partly on the SAG strike, as people who are off have downtime, which I will beg, hire, and steal to do the proposed show since I have never done my own podcast.

Have a good season. And yes, Rob, that includes you. I always root for the player.

Did Jerry Sandusky teach you ball ? Not balls like the young dick and balls he liked football ?

[regnis]

redietz,

Colorado +20.5 against TCU this saturday

Who do you like?

Impossible to play. TCU was stripped on offense and was likely overrated last year. This year's QB, however, was originally supposed to start all games until dinged, when Duggan, the previous two-year starter, regained his job. Colorado is completely revamped in terms of personnel, which is a plus (I guess), but really -- importing SWAC players is more mirage than boon. The TCU defense should shut them down, which leads to trying to anticipate when the substitutes come in...for both teams. There is a (strong) possibility TCU blasts their first three opponents by pinball scores. In fact, there is a chance they rampage through everybody until the @Texas Tech.

The great unknown is the rule changes, which -- due to the clock running -- are allegedly going to hack six to seven plays apiece off each team. Number one -- that's a lot of missing plays. Two -- those are formal estimates. My own reviewing of the process opening week strongly suggests more plays will be missing than formally projected.

So with all of these monster lines this week -- very, very tough to figure the effects of surgically removing all of these plays. I have my own suspicions about which brackets of spreads will be affected the most, but no sense sharing them with someone (and a general VCT audience) that's been demonstrating such little professional respect.

What tells you all you need to know about this VCT crew is that I win an NFL contest versus 1300 other people, which frankly nobody on here did last year, and which nobody here likely did ever, and I did not get a single kudo, which is unbelievable. I made many positive statements regarding Rob and Todd's handicapping last year. I win a contest versus 1300 people, and not one positive comment regarding it. Just nonsense about "tournaments mean nothing." It's pretty funny to have a bunch of anonymous bullshitters playing at being "APs," and somebody does the nigh impossible and gets zero acknowledgement. Very funny and so apropos VCT.

Hint: if you're not up on the rule changes and effects, take the college season off, because you do not know what you are doing.

Summary -- and the reason I share this is I'm not betting the game -- if you put a gun to my head, I take TCU. I think Colorado's offensive line is probably overmatched. They are going to have a hard time. The key question will be an inexperienced TCU offensive line against a jumbled together front seven on defense for Colorado. Unknown what that will look like. Always hard to lay 20 opening week with a brand new offensive line. Some pundits are famously predicting TCU to hang a "half a hundred" on Colorado. Personally, I think it more likely that they shut Colorado down and have the QB running for his life all day, but if TCU goes bang-bang-bang first three or four possessions, yeah, the game could get out of hand and pinball-ish.

I have to make forced choice decisions on this game for the Northbet contest anyway, so people will see who I took after the fact. Likely TCU, even though they are not nearly as good as last year's squad, which was not as good as they appeared. And I'm a TCU proponent, as they are the team I had at 100-1 when Cam Newton versus Oregon screwed their undefeated TCU asses out of a playoff game many moons ago.

I will probably be doing a podcast summarizing a game or two each week, sometimes before the game, sometimes regarding games after they've been played. It's more of a coaches' perspective than a handicapping show. Check YouTube in October to see if anything pops. Whether I do it depends partly on the SAG strike, as people who are off have downtime, which I will beg, hire, and steal to do the proposed show since I have never done my own podcast.

Have a good season. And yes, Rob, that includes you. I always root for the player.

Redietz-I was actually going to PM you to get your thoughts on the fewer plays and the inability to constantly have the clock stop in that last couple of minutes when attempting to catch up. I assume the bookmakers have adjusted the totals accordingly and one shouldn't rush to bet the unders. Have they??

P.S.--Opening day at Kentucky Downs. Wish me luck. I know I can never duplicate that one year but there are always possibilities for big scores there.

[redietz]

redietz,

Colorado +20.5 against TCU this saturday

Who do you like?

Impossible to play. TCU was stripped on offense and was likely overrated last year. This year's QB, however, was originally supposed to start all games until dinged, when Duggan, the previous two-year starter, regained his job. Colorado is completely revamped in terms of personnel, which is a plus (I guess), but really -- importing SWAC players is more mirage than boon. The TCU defense should shut them down, which leads to trying to anticipate when the substitutes come in...for both teams. There is a (strong) possibility TCU blasts their first three opponents by pinball scores. In fact, there is a chance they rampage through everybody until the @Texas Tech.

The great unknown is the rule changes, which -- due to the clock running -- are allegedly going to hack six to seven plays apiece off each team. Number one -- that's a lot of missing plays. Two -- those are formal estimates. My own reviewing of the process opening week strongly suggests more plays will be missing than formally projected.

So with all of these monster lines this week -- very, very tough to figure the effects of surgically removing all of these plays. I have my own suspicions about which brackets of spreads will be affected the most, but no sense sharing them with someone (and a general VCT audience) that's been demonstrating such little professional respect.

What tells you all you need to know about this VCT crew is that I win an NFL contest versus 1300 other people, which frankly nobody on here did last year, and which nobody here likely did ever, and I did not get a single kudo, which is unbelievable. I made many positive statements regarding Rob and Todd's handicapping last year. I win a contest versus 1300 people, and not one positive comment regarding it. Just nonsense about "tournaments mean nothing." It's pretty funny to have a bunch of anonymous bullshitters playing at being "APs," and somebody does the nigh impossible and gets zero acknowledgement. Very funny and so apropos VCT.

Hint: if you're not up on the rule changes and effects, take the college season off, because you do not know what you are doing.

Summary -- and the reason I share this is I'm not betting the game -- if you put a gun to my head, I take TCU. I think Colorado's offensive line is probably overmatched. They are going to have a hard time. The key question will be an inexperienced TCU offensive line against a jumbled together front seven on defense for Colorado. Unknown what that will look like. Always hard to lay 20 opening week with a brand new offensive line. Some pundits are famously predicting TCU to hang a "half a hundred" on Colorado. Personally, I think it more likely that they shut Colorado down and have the QB running for his life all day, but if TCU goes bang-bang-bang first three or four possessions, yeah, the game could get out of hand and pinball-ish.

I have to make forced choice decisions on this game for the Northbet contest anyway, so people will see who I took after the fact. Likely TCU, even though they are not nearly as good as last year's squad, which was not as good as they appeared. And I'm a TCU proponent, as they are the team I had at 100-1 when Cam Newton versus Oregon screwed their undefeated TCU asses out of a playoff game many moons ago.

I will probably be doing a podcast summarizing a game or two each week, sometimes before the game, sometimes regarding games after they've been played. It's more of a coaches' perspective than a handicapping show. Check YouTube in October to see if anything pops. Whether I do it depends partly on the SAG strike, as people who are off have downtime, which I will beg, hire, and steal to do the proposed show since I have never done my own podcast.

Have a good season. And yes, Rob, that includes you. I always root for the player.

Redietz-I was actually going to PM you to get your thoughts on the fewer plays and the inability to constantly have the clock stop in that last couple of minutes when attempting to catch up. I assume the bookmakers have adjusted the totals accordingly and one shouldn't rush to bet the unders. Have they??

P.S.--Opening day at Kentucky Downs. Wish me luck. I know I can never duplicate that one year but there are always possibilities for big scores there.

Good luck at Kentucky Downs, regnis. God, you killed it that season. Unbelievable.

The totals are all adjusted fully, in my opinion, but the adjustments also take into account some statistical realities from last season that create interesting wrinkles. If I get a chance, I'll PM you tonight regarding the stat consequences I see regarding 2022 numbers. People really need to have their heads on straight to understand the potential ramifications.

People did not rush to bet Unders. In fact, some of the Week One games had their totals bet Up because, frankly, the numbers were so damned low given the matchups (like UMass versus NMState, bet Up at least two full points from opening).

Will PM tonight or early tomorrow with my statistical thoughts.

[mickeycrimm]

redietz, is the rules committee off on this estimate:

The NCAA Football Rules Committee projects that the new rule will trim seven or eight plays from the average of about 180 per game in 2022. An eight-play reduction over a 12-game season would save 96 potential injury exposures per team, and there would be over 100 fewer exposures for teams that advance to the playoff.

[redietz]

redietz, is the rules committee off on this estimate:

The NCAA Football Rules Committee projects that the new rule will trim seven or eight plays from the average of about 180 per game in 2022. An eight-play reduction over a 12-game season would save 96 potential injury exposures per team, and there would be over 100 fewer exposures for teams that advance to the playoff.

Some broadcasts have already examined the likely plays per game, and their estimates do not match the committee's estimates. I suggest you ask CBSSN and Fox. They've already discussed number of plays on air.

[mickeycrimm]

What tells you all you need to know about this VCT crew is that I win an NFL contest versus 1300 other people, which frankly nobody on here did last year, and which nobody here likely did ever, and I did not get a single kudo, which is unbelievable. I made many positive statements regarding Rob and Todd's handicapping last year. I win a contest versus 1300 people, and not one positive comment regarding it. Just nonsense about "tournaments mean nothing." It's pretty funny to have a bunch of anonymous bullshitters playing at being "APs," and somebody does the nigh impossible and gets zero acknowledgement. Very funny and so apropos VCT.

Your reputation is you are an insufferable prick. Who in the hell wants to show some respect to an insufferable prick? Here you are demanding respect while dishing out a ton of disrespect at the same time. Every post you make you are belittling and berating someone.

Here's the scoop, ditz. AP's have more gambling knowledge than you sports bettors. We can run circles around your ignorant asses. You obviously have an inferiority complex about it so you lash out at us.

I got the Walters book. In the 80's he was using a computer program designed by Michael Kent that picked 60% winners against the spread. No handicappers involved. Just that fucking computer program. Do you know any handicappers that can do 60%? The Computer Group were not handicappers, neither was Walters. They were just betting what the computer told them to bet. That's what an AP would do. Rather than use that computer, a pencil and paper handicapper like you would rather beat your head against the wall trying to get 55% winners.

Respect is as respect gets. You want some respect? Then show some respect.

[redietz]

What tells you all you need to know about this VCT crew is that I win an NFL contest versus 1300 other people, which frankly nobody on here did last year, and which nobody here likely did ever, and I did not get a single kudo, which is unbelievable. I made many positive statements regarding Rob and Todd's handicapping last year. I win a contest versus 1300 people, and not one positive comment regarding it. Just nonsense about "tournaments mean nothing." It's pretty funny to have a bunch of anonymous bullshitters playing at being "APs," and somebody does the nigh impossible and gets zero acknowledgement. Very funny and so apropos VCT.

Your reputation is you are an insufferable prick. Who in the hell wants to show some respect to an insufferable prick? Here you are demanding respect while dishing out a ton of disrespect at the same time. Every post you make you are belittling and berating someone.

Here's the scoop, ditz. AP's have more gambling knowledge than you sports bettors. We can run circles around your ignorant asses. You obviously have an inferiority complex about it so you lash out at us.

I got the Walters book. In the 80's he was using a computer program designed by Michael Kent that picked 60% winners against the spread. No handicappers involved. Just that fucking computer program. Do you know any handicappers that can do 60%? The Computer Group were not handicappers, neither was Walters. They were just betting what the computer told them to bet. That's what an AP would do. Rather than use that computer, a pencil and paper handicapper like you would rather beat your head against the wall trying to get 55% winners.

Respect is as respect gets. You want some respect? Then show some respect.

LOL. You are so utterly out of your depth. And you are surprisingly dishonest.

I've already been asked to helm a book club discussion of the book, mickey. You're invited to join us. Last Friday of October or November here in Johnson City. Have not pinned down the month, but likely October. Let me know if you want to make a guest appearance. I have some air miles, but I don't want to blow too many hauling your ass from Montana to here, so let me know. I'll see how bad they'd dent me. Might be filmed. I'll let you know that, too. Lighting in the venue isn't the best, so may save the filming for another time.

And you are getting increasingly dishonest. Do I know any handicappers that can do 60%? Again -- LOL. For how long, mickey? For as long as the Computer Group did it? Well, yes I do know a few blokes who pulled that off for specific sports for, what was it, two and half years? You forget, man, I was there when Walters and The Computer Group were doing this. While they were having a helluva two-and-a-half-year run, so was I. Not as good as theirs, but pretty damned good. We were clearly overlapping mightily in college football. And yes, my years were published in "Tipsters or Gypsters?"

You are so dishonest. Do I know any handicappers that hit 60%? First of all, you have only Mr. Walters' word that it was 60% and for how long in that book. He wasn't exactly monitored by outside parties. But, truth to tell, I believe they did manage that...for between two and three years.

And then what, mickey? Why do you think he began recruiting handicappers? Why would a whiz bang 60% computer program user transition to hiring roundtables of handicappers?

Let me know what the AA air miles are to get here. Hell, I'll check it myself. Probably too brutal, but I'll check.

[mickeycrimm]

LOL. You are so utterly out of your depth. And you are surprisingly dishonest.

I've already been asked to helm a book club discussion of the book, mickey. You're invited to join us. Last Friday of October or November here in Johnson City. Have not pinned down the month, but likely October. Let me know if you want to make a guest appearance. I have some air miles, but I don't want to blow too many hauling your ass from Montana to here, so let me know. I'll see how bad they'd dent me. Might be filmed. I'll let you know that, too. Lighting in the venue isn't the best, so may save the filming for another time.

And you are getting increasingly dishonest. Do I know any handicappers that can do 60%? Again -- LOL. For how long, mickey? For as long as the Computer Group did it? Well, yes I do know a few blokes who pulled that off for specific sports for, what was it, two and half years? You forget, man, I was there when Walters and The Computer Group were doing this. While they were having a helluva two-and-a-half-year run, so was I. Not as good as theirs, but pretty damned good. We were clearly overlapping mightily in college football. And yes, my years were published in "Tipsters or Gypsters?"

You are so dishonest. Do I know any handicappers that hit 60%? First of all, you have only Mr. Walters' word that it was 60% and for how long in that book. He wasn't exactly monitored by outside parties. But, truth to tell, I believe they did manage that...for between two and three years.

And then what, mickey? Why do you think he began recruiting handicappers? Why would a whiz bang 60% computer program user transition to hiring roundtables of handicappers?

Let me know what the AA air miles are to get here. Hell, I'll check it myself. Probably too brutal, but I'll check.

LOL! I would insult your intelligence but it's obvious you don't have any at all. And you are a born liar.

If I wanted to go to Johnson Shitty I would take a private jet. But do you really think I would voluntarily put myself in the presence of someone that threatened to kill me? If you do you are stupider that I thought. Like mega stupid.

Quit telling lies and over rating your handicapping skills. No one believes you. Your embarrassing yourself. AP's can run circles around you.

Walters has one of your characteristics, dropping names. I'm only a third of the way thru it but he's dropping a lot of names. So on what page will I find his take on that great sports handicapper, Bob Dietz? Hurry and tell me the page and I'll skip ahead to it.

[redietz]

LOL. You are so utterly out of your depth. And you are surprisingly dishonest.

I've already been asked to helm a book club discussion of the book, mickey. You're invited to join us. Last Friday of October or November here in Johnson City. Have not pinned down the month, but likely October. Let me know if you want to make a guest appearance. I have some air miles, but I don't want to blow too many hauling your ass from Montana to here, so let me know. I'll see how bad they'd dent me. Might be filmed. I'll let you know that, too. Lighting in the venue isn't the best, so may save the filming for another time.

And you are getting increasingly dishonest. Do I know any handicappers that can do 60%? Again -- LOL. For how long, mickey? For as long as the Computer Group did it? Well, yes I do know a few blokes who pulled that off for specific sports for, what was it, two and half years? You forget, man, I was there when Walters and The Computer Group were doing this. While they were having a helluva two-and-a-half-year run, so was I. Not as good as theirs, but pretty damned good. We were clearly overlapping mightily in college football. And yes, my years were published in "Tipsters or Gypsters?"

You are so dishonest. Do I know any handicappers that hit 60%? First of all, you have only Mr. Walters' word that it was 60% and for how long in that book. He wasn't exactly monitored by outside parties. But, truth to tell, I believe they did manage that...for between two and three years.

And then what, mickey? Why do you think he began recruiting handicappers? Why would a whiz bang 60% computer program user transition to hiring roundtables of handicappers?

Let me know what the AA air miles are to get here. Hell, I'll check it myself. Probably too brutal, but I'll check.

LOL! I would insult your intelligence but it's obvious you don't have any at all. And you are a born liar.

If I wanted to go to Johnson Shitty I would take a private jet. But do you really think I would voluntarily put myself in the presence of someone that threatened to kill me? If you do you are stupider that I thought. Like mega stupid.

Quit telling lies and over rating your handicapping skills. No one believes you. Your embarrassing yourself. AP's can run circles around you.

Walters has one of your characteristics, dropping names. I'm only a third of the way thru it but he's dropping a lot of names. So on what page will I find his take on that great sports handicapper, Bob Dietz? Hurry and tell me the page and I'll skip ahead to it.

Great news. Although it's too many miles for me to get you directly to TRI from Billings, I can get you to Atlanta or Charlotte. The flights I can afford miles-wise go through Seattle. Now if you have the funds to fly directly to TRI, please do. My miles are limited, so I'd appreciate that. But if you are short on funds to help you expose me as overrated and lacking in gambling knowledge, don't worry. I will use my air miles to help you out.

If you can handle renting a car for a couple of days, it's a short trip up to Johnson City from ATL or CLT. Or I can have a friend of mine drive to Atlanta or Charlotte to bring you to JC.

I'll pin down the date of the book club meeting and post it here. I'm looking forward to you telling the folks I don't know what I'm talking about. It should be pretty entertaining for all concerned.

Now don't punk out on me, mickey. The likely date is October 27, but that hasn't been finalized. I was looking at flying you in on Wednesday and out Saturday. The meeting will be in the big lounge room in back of the Italian Pub. It has tables and a stage and plenty of seating.

You'll probably like JC -- it's a throwback conservative town, probably 85% Republican. Nice scenery. It's a test market for restaurants, so we have way more fast food and casual dining places than you would expect in a city of 70,000. And the way it's laid out, it feels like a city half its size.

Looking forward to your AP critiques of my book club commentary! I'm just the facilitator and Q&A guy. Others will hold forth with their opinions and research. I'm sure your expertise will be appreciated!

[tableplay]

I got the Walters book. In the 80's he was using a computer program designed by Michael Kent that picked 60% winners against the spread. No handicappers involved. Just that fucking computer program.

Same deal with Bill Benter. He became a billionaire using statistical models to predict horse racing outcomes.

[accountinquestion]

What tells you all you need to know about this VCT crew is that I win an NFL contest versus 1300 other people, which frankly nobody on here did last year, and which nobody here likely did ever, and I did not get a single kudo, which is unbelievable. I made many positive statements regarding Rob and Todd's handicapping last year. I win a contest versus 1300 people, and not one positive comment regarding it. Just nonsense about "tournaments mean nothing." It's pretty funny to have a bunch of anonymous bullshitters playing at being "APs," and somebody does the nigh impossible and gets zero acknowledgement. Very funny and so apropos VCT.

Your reputation is you are an insufferable prick. Who in the hell wants to show some respect to an insufferable prick? Here you are demanding respect while dishing out a ton of disrespect at the same time. Every post you make you are belittling and berating someone.

Here's the scoop, ditz. AP's have more gambling knowledge than you sports bettors. We can run circles around your ignorant asses. You obviously have an inferiority complex about it so you lash out at us.

I got the Walters book. In the 80's he was using a computer program designed by Michael Kent that picked 60% winners against the spread. No handicappers involved. Just that fucking computer program. Do you know any handicappers that can do 60%? The Computer Group were not handicappers, neither was Walters. They were just betting what the computer told them to bet. That's what an AP would do. Rather than use that computer, a pencil and paper handicapper like you would rather beat your head against the wall trying to get 55% winners.

Respect is as respect gets. You want some respect? Then show some respect.

He is completely deluded at his relevance. He seems particularly bitter about this lack of kudos. Did he change the day he didn't receive the kudos for the tournament? Wow. poor fella really upset. He really wants acknowledgment. Too funny. The rest of the guys don't give a shit and the real APs almost never brag.

The thing he doesn't get is people here just don't care. No one probably even spends time on fantasy leagues just because the hourly and they get enough gambling.

1 in 1300 but if redietz is as good as he says then 1 in 600. Who the fuck here cares about a 1 in 600 longshot. Redietz doesn't get anything.

If only there was beatingsportscoinflippingcontestgreatestever.com Wait.. now maybe that is a new business idea.

[mickeycrimm]

LOL. You are so utterly out of your depth. And you are surprisingly dishonest.

I've already been asked to helm a book club discussion of the book, mickey. You're invited to join us. Last Friday of October or November here in Johnson City. Have not pinned down the month, but likely October. Let me know if you want to make a guest appearance. I have some air miles, but I don't want to blow too many hauling your ass from Montana to here, so let me know. I'll see how bad they'd dent me. Might be filmed. I'll let you know that, too. Lighting in the venue isn't the best, so may save the filming for another time.

And you are getting increasingly dishonest. Do I know any handicappers that can do 60%? Again -- LOL. For how long, mickey? For as long as the Computer Group did it? Well, yes I do know a few blokes who pulled that off for specific sports for, what was it, two and half years? You forget, man, I was there when Walters and The Computer Group were doing this. While they were having a helluva two-and-a-half-year run, so was I. Not as good as theirs, but pretty damned good. We were clearly overlapping mightily in college football. And yes, my years were published in "Tipsters or Gypsters?"

You are so dishonest. Do I know any handicappers that hit 60%? First of all, you have only Mr. Walters' word that it was 60% and for how long in that book. He wasn't exactly monitored by outside parties. But, truth to tell, I believe they did manage that...for between two and three years.

And then what, mickey? Why do you think he began recruiting handicappers? Why would a whiz bang 60% computer program user transition to hiring roundtables of handicappers?

Let me know what the AA air miles are to get here. Hell, I'll check it myself. Probably too brutal, but I'll check.

LOL! I would insult your intelligence but it's obvious you don't have any at all. And you are a born liar.

If I wanted to go to Johnson Shitty I would take a private jet. But do you really think I would voluntarily put myself in the presence of someone that threatened to kill me? If you do you are stupider that I thought. Like mega stupid.

Quit telling lies and over rating your handicapping skills. No one believes you. Your embarrassing yourself. AP's can run circles around you.

Walters has one of your characteristics, dropping names. I'm only a third of the way thru it but he's dropping a lot of names. So on what page will I find his take on that great sports handicapper, Bob Dietz? Hurry and tell me the page and I'll skip ahead to it.

Great news. Although it's too many miles for me to get you directly to TRI from Billings, I can get you to Atlanta or Charlotte. The flights I can afford miles-wise go through Seattle. Now if you have the funds to fly directly to TRI, please do. My miles are limited, so I'd appreciate that. But if you are short on funds to help you expose me as overrated and lacking in gambling knowledge, don't worry. I will use my air miles to help you out.

If you can handle renting a car for a couple of days, it's a short trip up to Johnson City from ATL or CLT. Or I can have a friend of mine drive to Atlanta or Charlotte to bring you to JC.

I'll pin down the date of the book club meeting and post it here. I'm looking forward to you telling the folks I don't know what I'm talking about. It should be pretty entertaining for all concerned.

Now don't punk out on me, mickey. The likely date is October 27, but that hasn't been finalized. I was looking at flying you in on Wednesday and out Saturday. The meeting will be in the big lounge room in back of the Italian Pub. It has tables and a stage and plenty of seating.

You'll probably like JC -- it's a throwback conservative town, probably 85% Republican. Nice scenery. It's a test market for restaurants, so we have way more fast food and casual dining places than you would expect in a city of 70,000. And the way it's laid out, it feels like a city half its size.

Looking forward to your AP critiques of my book club commentary! I'm just the facilitator and Q&A guy. Others will hold forth with their opinions and research. I'm sure your expertise will be appreciated!

I'll charter a private jet. I normally charge 30K for a public appearance fee. But since you have threatened the lives of myself and others and have shown spurts of irrational behavior in the past I will require a top notch security detail to and from Johnson Shitty. So a $75,000 public appearance fee will suffice. Let me know when you have the money escrowed with Druff.

[accountinquestion]

Summary -- and the reason I share this is I'm not betting the game -- if you put a gun to my head, I take TCU. I think Colorado's offensive line is probably overmatched. They are going to have a hard time. The key question will be an inexperienced TCU offensive line against a jumbled together front seven on defense for Colorado. Unknown what that will look like. Always hard to lay 20 opening week with a brand new offensive line. Some pundits are famously predicting TCU to hang a "half a hundred" on Colorado. Personally, I think it more likely that they shut Colorado down and have the QB running for his life all day, but if TCU goes bang-bang-bang first three or four possessions, yeah, the game could get out of hand and pinball-ish.

See how Redietz looks at the betting aspect shows you he isn't a serious bettor. "If you put a gun to my head". He should be giving spreads. Which side you bet depend on the line. That concept is out of his world.

I believe the guy is a true expert at college football (or nfl.) and he might even be good at picking sides against a spread. He does not however seem to have any clue about cash money betting.

He'll take TCU !!! TCU is like a 15 to 1 favorite. LMAO. GEE REDIETZ GENIUS PICK.

YOU CAN'T MAKE THIS SHIT UP. WOW.

YOU PEOPLE WOW

[accountinquestion]

And you are getting increasingly dishonest. Do I know any handicappers that can do 60%? Again -- LOL. For how long, mickey? For as long as the Computer Group did it? Well, yes I do know a few blokes who pulled that off for specific sports for, what was it, two and half years? You forget, man, I was there when Walters and The Computer Group were doing this. While they were having a helluva two-and-a-half-year run, so was I. Not as good as theirs, but pretty damned good. We were clearly overlapping mightily in college football. And yes, my years were published in "Tipsters or Gypsters?"

He never considers the fact that the lines were softer/weaker back then. These concepts go straight over Redietz's head. 60% then is not the 60% of today. No way but Redietz doesn't understand that. He attributes it to variance. And clearly variance matters. doh.

You are so dishonest. Do I know any handicappers that hit 60%? First of all, you have only Mr. Walters' word that it was 60% and for how long in that book. He wasn't exactly monitored by outside parties. But, truth to tell, I believe they did manage that...for between two and three years.

So you know that you overlapped with Walters? How would you know that? because there are literally 2 sides and you'd overlap 50% flipping coins? LMAO He wasn't monitored but you knew his bets. I mean sure it is possible. It isn't much of a whopper but makes me go hmmm. You were his beard and placing your own bets? How'd you know what he bet?

P.S. where does Stanford recommend Ivertmectin. This is Kewl's surfboard bro.

[Half Smoke]

.

I just took another look at Shack's tracking of NFL betting - see link
and he tracked over 3,000 games
he shows all way winning 53.10% with a postive r.o.i. of 1.36%
and all home winning just 46.90% with a negative r.o.i. of 10.28%

that's a really huge difference - kinna astonishing that a bettor would prolly likely win doing nothing other than betting all away - although a very small amount -

if this continues to hold up it means that the home teams are way, way over bet - and that does seem to make sense - ploppies believing that the home advantage is greater than it actually is

.
https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/

[mickeycrimm]

Billy Walters gave some key stats in his book.

How often does the favorite win by the exact number of points it was favored:

1 = 3%
2 = 3%
3 = 8%
4 = 3%
5 = 3%
6 = 5%
7 = 6%
8 = 3%
9 = 2%
10 = 4%
11 = 2%
12= 2%
13 = 2%
14 = 5%
15 = 2%
16 = 3%
17 = 3%
18 = 3%

[Half Smoke]

.
he shows all away winning 53.10% with a postive r.o.i. of 1.36%
and all home winning just 46.90% with a negative r.o.i. of 10.28%

kinna astonishing that a bettor would prolly likely win doing nothing other than betting all away

too late to edit
the post as stated was inaccurate
should have included "against the spread"
I hate when I make errors like that - but I do

.

[Rob.Singer]

redietz,

Colorado +20.5 against TCU this saturday

Who do you like?

Impossible to play. TCU was stripped on offense and was likely overrated last year. This year's QB, however, was originally supposed to start all games until dinged, when Duggan, the previous two-year starter, regained his job. Colorado is completely revamped in terms of personnel, which is a plus (I guess), but really -- importing SWAC players is more mirage than boon. The TCU defense should shut them down, which leads to trying to anticipate when the substitutes come in...for both teams. There is a (strong) possibility TCU blasts their first three opponents by pinball scores. In fact, there is a chance they rampage through everybody until the @Texas Tech.

The great unknown is the rule changes, which -- due to the clock running -- are allegedly going to hack six to seven plays apiece off each team. Number one -- that's a lot of missing plays. Two -- those are formal estimates. My own reviewing of the process opening week strongly suggests more plays will be missing than formally projected.

So with all of these monster lines this week -- very, very tough to figure the effects of surgically removing all of these plays. I have my own suspicions about which brackets of spreads will be affected the most, but no sense sharing them with someone (and a general VCT audience) that's been demonstrating such little professional respect.

What tells you all you need to know about this VCT crew is that I win an NFL contest versus 1300 other people, which frankly nobody on here did last year, and which nobody here likely did ever, and I did not get a single kudo, which is unbelievable. I made many positive statements regarding Rob and Todd's handicapping last year. I win a contest versus 1300 people, and not one positive comment regarding it. Just nonsense about "tournaments mean nothing." It's pretty funny to have a bunch of anonymous bullshitters playing at being "APs," and somebody does the nigh impossible and gets zero acknowledgement. Very funny and so apropos VCT.

Hint: if you're not up on the rule changes and effects, take the college season off, because you do not know what you are doing.

Summary -- and the reason I share this is I'm not betting the game -- if you put a gun to my head, I take TCU. I think Colorado's offensive line is probably overmatched. They are going to have a hard time. The key question will be an inexperienced TCU offensive line against a jumbled together front seven on defense for Colorado. Unknown what that will look like. Always hard to lay 20 opening week with a brand new offensive line. Some pundits are famously predicting TCU to hang a "half a hundred" on Colorado. Personally, I think it more likely that they shut Colorado down and have the QB running for his life all day, but if TCU goes bang-bang-bang first three or four possessions, yeah, the game could get out of hand and pinball-ish.

I have to make forced choice decisions on this game for the Northbet contest anyway, so people will see who I took after the fact. Likely TCU, even though they are not nearly as good as last year's squad, which was not as good as they appeared. And I'm a TCU proponent, as they are the team I had at 100-1 when Cam Newton versus Oregon screwed their undefeated TCU asses out of a playoff game many moons ago.

I will probably be doing a podcast summarizing a game or two each week, sometimes before the game, sometimes regarding games after they've been played. It's more of a coaches' perspective than a handicapping show. Check YouTube in October to see if anything pops. Whether I do it depends partly on the SAG strike, as people who are off have downtime, which I will beg, hire, and steal to do the proposed show since I have never done my own podcast.

Have a good season. And yes, Rob, that includes you. I always root for the player.

Based on what I saw today, your analysis on the Colorado-TCU game was MILES away from what went down. Never bet against the coaching ability of Prime Time.

(The lowly GT guy had this one right.)

[redietz]

redietz,

Colorado +20.5 against TCU this saturday

Who do you like?

Impossible to play. TCU was stripped on offense and was likely overrated last year. This year's QB, however, was originally supposed to start all games until dinged, when Duggan, the previous two-year starter, regained his job. Colorado is completely revamped in terms of personnel, which is a plus (I guess), but really -- importing SWAC players is more mirage than boon. The TCU defense should shut them down, which leads to trying to anticipate when the substitutes come in...for both teams. There is a (strong) possibility TCU blasts their first three opponents by pinball scores. In fact, there is a chance they rampage through everybody until the @Texas Tech.

The great unknown is the rule changes, which -- due to the clock running -- are allegedly going to hack six to seven plays apiece off each team. Number one -- that's a lot of missing plays. Two -- those are formal estimates. My own reviewing of the process opening week strongly suggests more plays will be missing than formally projected.

So with all of these monster lines this week -- very, very tough to figure the effects of surgically removing all of these plays. I have my own suspicions about which brackets of spreads will be affected the most, but no sense sharing them with someone (and a general VCT audience) that's been demonstrating such little professional respect.

What tells you all you need to know about this VCT crew is that I win an NFL contest versus 1300 other people, which frankly nobody on here did last year, and which nobody here likely did ever, and I did not get a single kudo, which is unbelievable. I made many positive statements regarding Rob and Todd's handicapping last year. I win a contest versus 1300 people, and not one positive comment regarding it. Just nonsense about "tournaments mean nothing." It's pretty funny to have a bunch of anonymous bullshitters playing at being "APs," and somebody does the nigh impossible and gets zero acknowledgement. Very funny and so apropos VCT.

Hint: if you're not up on the rule changes and effects, take the college season off, because you do not know what you are doing.

Summary -- and the reason I share this is I'm not betting the game -- if you put a gun to my head, I take TCU. I think Colorado's offensive line is probably overmatched. They are going to have a hard time. The key question will be an inexperienced TCU offensive line against a jumbled together front seven on defense for Colorado. Unknown what that will look like. Always hard to lay 20 opening week with a brand new offensive line. Some pundits are famously predicting TCU to hang a "half a hundred" on Colorado. Personally, I think it more likely that they shut Colorado down and have the QB running for his life all day, but if TCU goes bang-bang-bang first three or four possessions, yeah, the game could get out of hand and pinball-ish.

I have to make forced choice decisions on this game for the Northbet contest anyway, so people will see who I took after the fact. Likely TCU, even though they are not nearly as good as last year's squad, which was not as good as they appeared. And I'm a TCU proponent, as they are the team I had at 100-1 when Cam Newton versus Oregon screwed their undefeated TCU asses out of a playoff game many moons ago.

I will probably be doing a podcast summarizing a game or two each week, sometimes before the game, sometimes regarding games after they've been played. It's more of a coaches' perspective than a handicapping show. Check YouTube in October to see if anything pops. Whether I do it depends partly on the SAG strike, as people who are off have downtime, which I will beg, hire, and steal to do the proposed show since I have never done my own podcast.

Have a good season. And yes, Rob, that includes you. I always root for the player.

Based on what I saw today, your analysis on the Colorado-TCU game was MILES away from what went down. Never bet against the coaching ability of Prime Time.

(The lowly GT guy had this one right.)

But don't ask me how I actually did betting, Rob. LOL.

I had seen Sanders play three or four games over his QB career. He was FABULOUS yesterday. Spectacular. He was damned near perfect, and they won by three. Too many safeties trying to play linebacker and too many linebackers trying to play safety on TCU. Football coaches will know what I mean.

I even like the way Sanders takes sacks. He makes quick decisions to get the hell down and not make a hero play, and he is aware when they are about to get to him every time.

Best game of the day. Best game I've seen in a while. Wyoming beating Texas Tech in the nightcap was something special, too. Did not think they could play from two scores down, but they did. Tremendous coaching.

I lost a miracle game yesterday. Had Army teased. I have not seen a service academy flat-out blow a game like that in decades. Cost me a lot of cash. I had Army -1 1/2 teased to Open and they were up 13-3 with ULM at their own 40 with five minutes left. Brutal loss. May make my all-time top 10 loss list.

BetOnline does a little promo ATS contest opening week. Not much money involved, but they pay the top 500 something out of what I assume are 10K or more entrants. I'm sitting tied for 51st after Day One. You have to force-choice all games and totals the rest of the schedule. I cannot believe I picked Under 40 for NW/Rutgers. I can still change it, but man, I have a hard time seeing these teams scoring against each other. But 40 in a college game? How many 40s do you ever see?