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Thread: Professional Sportsbetting

  1. #921
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post

    Impossible to play. TCU was stripped on offense and was likely overrated last year. This year's QB, however, was originally supposed to start all games until dinged, when Duggan, the previous two-year starter, regained his job. Colorado is completely revamped in terms of personnel, which is a plus (I guess), but really -- importing SWAC players is more mirage than boon. The TCU defense should shut them down, which leads to trying to anticipate when the substitutes come in...for both teams. There is a (strong) possibility TCU blasts their first three opponents by pinball scores. In fact, there is a chance they rampage through everybody until the @Texas Tech.

    The great unknown is the rule changes, which -- due to the clock running -- are allegedly going to hack six to seven plays apiece off each team. Number one -- that's a lot of missing plays. Two -- those are formal estimates. My own reviewing of the process opening week strongly suggests more plays will be missing than formally projected.

    So with all of these monster lines this week -- very, very tough to figure the effects of surgically removing all of these plays. I have my own suspicions about which brackets of spreads will be affected the most, but no sense sharing them with someone (and a general VCT audience) that's been demonstrating such little professional respect.

    What tells you all you need to know about this VCT crew is that I win an NFL contest versus 1300 other people, which frankly nobody on here did last year, and which nobody here likely did ever, and I did not get a single kudo, which is unbelievable. I made many positive statements regarding Rob and Todd's handicapping last year. I win a contest versus 1300 people, and not one positive comment regarding it. Just nonsense about "tournaments mean nothing." It's pretty funny to have a bunch of anonymous bullshitters playing at being "APs," and somebody does the nigh impossible and gets zero acknowledgement. Very funny and so apropos VCT.

    Hint: if you're not up on the rule changes and effects, take the college season off, because you do not know what you are doing.

    Summary -- and the reason I share this is I'm not betting the game -- if you put a gun to my head, I take TCU. I think Colorado's offensive line is probably overmatched. They are going to have a hard time. The key question will be an inexperienced TCU offensive line against a jumbled together front seven on defense for Colorado. Unknown what that will look like. Always hard to lay 20 opening week with a brand new offensive line. Some pundits are famously predicting TCU to hang a "half a hundred" on Colorado. Personally, I think it more likely that they shut Colorado down and have the QB running for his life all day, but if TCU goes bang-bang-bang first three or four possessions, yeah, the game could get out of hand and pinball-ish.

    I have to make forced choice decisions on this game for the Northbet contest anyway, so people will see who I took after the fact. Likely TCU, even though they are not nearly as good as last year's squad, which was not as good as they appeared. And I'm a TCU proponent, as they are the team I had at 100-1 when Cam Newton versus Oregon screwed their undefeated TCU asses out of a playoff game many moons ago.

    I will probably be doing a podcast summarizing a game or two each week, sometimes before the game, sometimes regarding games after they've been played. It's more of a coaches' perspective than a handicapping show. Check YouTube in October to see if anything pops. Whether I do it depends partly on the SAG strike, as people who are off have downtime, which I will beg, hire, and steal to do the proposed show since I have never done my own podcast.

    Have a good season. And yes, Rob, that includes you. I always root for the player.
    Based on what I saw today, your analysis on the Colorado-TCU game was MILES away from what went down. Never bet against the coaching ability of Prime Time.

    (The lowly GT guy had this one right.)

    But don't ask me how I actually did betting, Rob. LOL.

    I had seen Sanders play three or four games over his QB career. He was FABULOUS yesterday. Spectacular. He was damned near perfect, and they won by three. Too many safeties trying to play linebacker and too many linebackers trying to play safety on TCU. Football coaches will know what I mean.

    I even like the way Sanders takes sacks. He makes quick decisions to get the hell down and not make a hero play, and he is aware when they are about to get to him every time.

    Best game of the day. Best game I've seen in a while. Wyoming beating Texas Tech in the nightcap was something special, too. Did not think they could play from two scores down, but they did. Tremendous coaching.

    I lost a miracle game yesterday. Had Army teased. I have not seen a service academy flat-out blow a game like that in decades. Cost me a lot of cash. I had Army -1 1/2 teased to Open and they were up 13-3 with ULM at their own 40 with five minutes left. Brutal loss. May make my all-time top 10 loss list.

    BetOnline does a little promo ATS contest opening week. Not much money involved, but they pay the top 500 something out of what I assume are 10K or more entrants. I'm sitting tied for 51st after Day One. You have to force-choice all games and totals the rest of the schedule. I cannot believe I picked Under 40 for NW/Rutgers. I can still change it, but man, I have a hard time seeing these teams scoring against each other. But 40 in a college game? How many 40s do you ever see?
    Did you load up on this promotion?

    Don’t forget, you can still pump up your bankroll for the start of the College Football season, and add up to $1,000 of house money.



    Enter promo code BLITZ23

  2. #922
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post

    Based on what I saw today, your analysis on the Colorado-TCU game was MILES away from what went down. Never bet against the coaching ability of Prime Time.

    (The lowly GT guy had this one right.)

    But don't ask me how I actually did betting, Rob. LOL.

    I had seen Sanders play three or four games over his QB career. He was FABULOUS yesterday. Spectacular. He was damned near perfect, and they won by three. Too many safeties trying to play linebacker and too many linebackers trying to play safety on TCU. Football coaches will know what I mean.

    I even like the way Sanders takes sacks. He makes quick decisions to get the hell down and not make a hero play, and he is aware when they are about to get to him every time.

    Best game of the day. Best game I've seen in a while. Wyoming beating Texas Tech in the nightcap was something special, too. Did not think they could play from two scores down, but they did. Tremendous coaching.

    I lost a miracle game yesterday. Had Army teased. I have not seen a service academy flat-out blow a game like that in decades. Cost me a lot of cash. I had Army -1 1/2 teased to Open and they were up 13-3 with ULM at their own 40 with five minutes left. Brutal loss. May make my all-time top 10 loss list.

    BetOnline does a little promo ATS contest opening week. Not much money involved, but they pay the top 500 something out of what I assume are 10K or more entrants. I'm sitting tied for 51st after Day One. You have to force-choice all games and totals the rest of the schedule. I cannot believe I picked Under 40 for NW/Rutgers. I can still change it, but man, I have a hard time seeing these teams scoring against each other. But 40 in a college game? How many 40s do you ever see?
    Did you load up on this promotion?

    Don’t forget, you can still pump up your bankroll for the start of the College Football season, and add up to $1,000 of house money.



    Enter promo code BLITZ23
    Thanks, Axel. I saw the promotion. In fact, I have the schedule/promotion brochure right here. They're doing a free Mega-Contest. I think it's five NFL games per week ATS. You can't beat free. Looks decent. They pay a hundred spots and first is 10K. If you go 5-0 in a given week, you split $8300 with whoever else went 5-0. Unfortunately, that weekly prize split will be about twenty bucks.

    As long as it doesn't interfere with your serious processes, I guess it's fine to waste the five minutes a week to do it.

  3. #923
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post


    But don't ask me how I actually did betting, Rob. LOL.

    I had seen Sanders play three or four games over his QB career. He was FABULOUS yesterday. Spectacular. He was damned near perfect, and they won by three. Too many safeties trying to play linebacker and too many linebackers trying to play safety on TCU. Football coaches will know what I mean.

    I even like the way Sanders takes sacks. He makes quick decisions to get the hell down and not make a hero play, and he is aware when they are about to get to him every time.

    Best game of the day. Best game I've seen in a while. Wyoming beating Texas Tech in the nightcap was something special, too. Did not think they could play from two scores down, but they did. Tremendous coaching.

    I lost a miracle game yesterday. Had Army teased. I have not seen a service academy flat-out blow a game like that in decades. Cost me a lot of cash. I had Army -1 1/2 teased to Open and they were up 13-3 with ULM at their own 40 with five minutes left. Brutal loss. May make my all-time top 10 loss list.

    BetOnline does a little promo ATS contest opening week. Not much money involved, but they pay the top 500 something out of what I assume are 10K or more entrants. I'm sitting tied for 51st after Day One. You have to force-choice all games and totals the rest of the schedule. I cannot believe I picked Under 40 for NW/Rutgers. I can still change it, but man, I have a hard time seeing these teams scoring against each other. But 40 in a college game? How many 40s do you ever see?
    Did you load up on this promotion?

    Don’t forget, you can still pump up your bankroll for the start of the College Football season, and add up to $1,000 of house money.



    Enter promo code BLITZ23
    Thanks, Axel. I saw the promotion. In fact, I have the schedule/promotion brochure right here. They're doing a free Mega-Contest. I think it's five NFL games per week ATS. You can't beat free. Looks decent. They pay a hundred spots and first is 10K. If you go 5-0 in a given week, you split $8300 with whoever else went 5-0. Unfortunately, that weekly prize split will be about twenty bucks.

    As long as it doesn't interfere with your serious processes, I guess it's fine to waste the five minutes a week to do it.
    I don't know why it would interfere. If you have the ability to beat college football it's a free 1k doing the bonus. If one has the time, is into sports betting, and can simply break even, they can make a shiton. Seriously, what's the total EV of that contest? I can't imagine it's worth 1k in value.

    I don't even understand why someone with the ability to beat college football would mess around with low -EV tournaments. Perhaps for fun, I get that, but I certainly wouldn't give up thousands in EV just for fun if it's related to something I do anyway. That's like saying there's a 2 to 1 blackjack promo going on where I can bet $500 2 on spot. Or I can go play a blackjack tournament with an EV of $300 and one choses that.

  4. #924
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    .

    I just took another look at Shack's tracking of NFL betting - see link
    and he tracked over 3,000 games
    he shows all way winning 53.10% with a postive r.o.i. of 1.36%
    and all home winning just 46.90% with a negative r.o.i. of 10.28%

    that's a really huge difference - kinna astonishing that a bettor would prolly likely win doing nothing other than betting all away - although a very small amount -

    if this continues to hold up it means that the home teams are way, way over bet - and that does seem to make sense - ploppies believing that the home advantage is greater than it actually is

    .
    https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
    Interesting. I assume this is based on -110 and the points. Where are the lines calculated at?
    Is this based off the closing line?

  5. #925
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Did you load up on this promotion?

    Don’t forget, you can still pump up your bankroll for the start of the College Football season, and add up to $1,000 of house money.



    Enter promo code BLITZ23
    Thanks, Axel. I saw the promotion. In fact, I have the schedule/promotion brochure right here. They're doing a free Mega-Contest. I think it's five NFL games per week ATS. You can't beat free. Looks decent. They pay a hundred spots and first is 10K. If you go 5-0 in a given week, you split $8300 with whoever else went 5-0. Unfortunately, that weekly prize split will be about twenty bucks.

    As long as it doesn't interfere with your serious processes, I guess it's fine to waste the five minutes a week to do it.
    I don't know why it would interfere. If you have the ability to beat college football it's a free 1k doing the bonus. If one has the time, is into sports betting, and can simply break even, they can make a shiton. Seriously, what's the total EV of that contest? I can't imagine it's worth 1k in value.

    I don't even understand why someone with the ability to beat college football would mess around with low -EV tournaments. Perhaps for fun, I get that, but I certainly wouldn't give up thousands in EV just for fun if it's related to something I do anyway. That's like saying there's a 2 to 1 blackjack promo going on where I can bet $500 2 on spot. Or I can go play a blackjack tournament with an EV of $300 and one choses that.
    I have no idea what you're talking about here. Nothing wrong with picking up the bonus. It's not a "shit-ton" unless you're using multiple names and family members and all that, and frankly -- if an offshore discovers you're doing that -- they will just keep your money and thumb their nose at you. So I don't do any of that multiple nonsense.

    You have odd sensibilities and interpretations of things. The reason I say "if it doesn't bother your processes" is because if you are a serious NFL handicapper and bettor (I really don't consider myself to be), then any distraction is a bad one. And contests can create bad habits. For example, an obvious one, most NFL ATS contests want you to pick five games a week ATS. That's a stupid arbitrary figure that has no bearing on the real gambling world. It can be a distraction to look at a schedule and in the back of your mind try to find five games. It's silly. And contests sometimes have deadlines that are not kickoff deadlines, so that's another distraction. If you are betting serious money, you don't need the distraction of small (or large) contests.

    I would refer you to Fezzik about contest versus real world issues. Ask him if he was a "Groupie."

    This bonus whoring stuff, nothing wrong with it, but sports books are within their rights to shut you down. And offshores, if you read the fine print, will keep your money on top of that if you pull stunts.

    Nothing wrong with picking up $500 here and $3500 there (I'm doing it this season at two places), but it's not a "shit ton."

  6. #926
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post

    Thanks, Axel. I saw the promotion. In fact, I have the schedule/promotion brochure right here. They're doing a free Mega-Contest. I think it's five NFL games per week ATS. You can't beat free. Looks decent. They pay a hundred spots and first is 10K. If you go 5-0 in a given week, you split $8300 with whoever else went 5-0. Unfortunately, that weekly prize split will be about twenty bucks.

    As long as it doesn't interfere with your serious processes, I guess it's fine to waste the five minutes a week to do it.
    I don't know why it would interfere. If you have the ability to beat college football it's a free 1k doing the bonus. If one has the time, is into sports betting, and can simply break even, they can make a shiton. Seriously, what's the total EV of that contest? I can't imagine it's worth 1k in value.

    I don't even understand why someone with the ability to beat college football would mess around with low -EV tournaments. Perhaps for fun, I get that, but I certainly wouldn't give up thousands in EV just for fun if it's related to something I do anyway. That's like saying there's a 2 to 1 blackjack promo going on where I can bet $500 2 on spot. Or I can go play a blackjack tournament with an EV of $300 and one choses that.
    I have no idea what you're talking about here. Nothing wrong with picking up the bonus. It's not a "shit-ton" unless you're using multiple names and family members and all that, and frankly -- if an offshore discovers you're doing that -- they will just keep your money and thumb their nose at you. So I don't do any of that multiple nonsense.

    You have odd sensibilities and interpretations of things. The reason I say "if it doesn't bother your processes" is because if you are a serious NFL handicapper and bettor (I really don't consider myself to be), then any distraction is a bad one. And contests can create bad habits. For example, an obvious one, most NFL ATS contests want you to pick five games a week ATS. That's a stupid arbitrary figure that has no bearing on the real gambling world. It can be a distraction to look at a schedule and in the back of your mind try to find five games. It's silly. And contests sometimes have deadlines that are not kickoff deadlines, so that's another distraction. If you are betting serious money, you don't need the distraction of small (or large) contests.

    I would refer you to Fezzik about contest versus real world issues. Ask him if he was a "Groupie."

    This bonus whoring stuff, nothing wrong with it, but sports books are within their rights to shut you down. And offshores, if you read the fine print, will keep your money on top of that if you pull stunts.

    Nothing wrong with picking up $500 here and $3500 there (I'm doing it this season at two places), but it's not a "shit ton."
    I don't disagree when you said multi-accounting can lead to bad things.
    If done correctly you should not get caught.

    Regardless, even without using OPA, I maintain that if one has the time, is into sports betting, and can simply break even, they can make a shiton.

    They will offer cash bonuses(meaning no betting restrictions) of 50% for 10's thousands at one place alone. IIRC 1k max bets and a 12x roll.
    Others offer thousands in 100% bonuses semi-frequently and there are multiple different places online. That's just the offshore places.

    It's certainly possible someone who wins consistently will get cut off and possibly get their accounts shut down. However, there are plenty of ways to mask that.

    Even just using bonus boosts and various small promotions for smaller bets on regulated books one could make 10's of thousands a year, just messing around. Obviously, you have to be in a state that has regulated sports betting.

  7. #927
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by Half Smoke View Post
    .

    I just took another look at Shack's tracking of NFL betting - see link
    and he tracked over 3,000 games
    he shows all way winning 53.10% with a postive r.o.i. of 1.36%
    and all home winning just 46.90% with a negative r.o.i. of 10.28%

    that's a really huge difference - kinna astonishing that a bettor would prolly likely win doing nothing other than betting all away - although a very small amount -

    if this continues to hold up it means that the home teams are way, way over bet - and that does seem to make sense - ploppies believing that the home advantage is greater than it actually is

    .
    https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/
    Interesting. I assume this is based on -110 and the points. Where are the lines calculated at?
    Is this based off the closing line?
    yes, it is based on -110 and the points

    as far as where and how he got that line - you would have to PM him to get the answer to that

    I am assuming it's a fair line - when I do stuff like this I use the line quoted by covers.com after the game is over which is I believe the most common line - I like covers.com - think they're the best at this kinna stuff

    if you go to this link for the lines and click on "line history" they will show you the lines of 4 different books and you can choose the best one for your bet


    https://www.covers.com/sports/nfl/matchups

    .
    Last edited by Half Smoke; 09-04-2023 at 02:34 AM.
    please don't feed the trolls

  8. #928
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I have no idea what you're talking about here. Nothing wrong with picking up the bonus. It's not a "shit-ton" unless you're using multiple names and family members and all that, and frankly -- if an offshore discovers you're doing that -- they will just keep your money and thumb their nose at you. So I don't do any of that multiple nonsense.

    You have odd sensibilities and interpretations of things. The reason I say "if it doesn't bother your processes" is because if you are a serious NFL handicapper and bettor (I really don't consider myself to be), then any distraction is a bad one. And contests can create bad habits. For example, an obvious one, most NFL ATS contests want you to pick five games a week ATS. That's a stupid arbitrary figure that has no bearing on the real gambling world. It can be a distraction to look at a schedule and in the back of your mind try to find five games. It's silly. And contests sometimes have deadlines that are not kickoff deadlines, so that's another distraction. If you are betting serious money, you don't need the distraction of small (or large) contests.

    I would refer you to Fezzik about contest versus real world issues. Ask him if he was a "Groupie."

    This bonus whoring stuff, nothing wrong with it, but sports books are within their rights to shut you down. And offshores, if you read the fine print, will keep your money on top of that if you pull stunts.

    Nothing wrong with picking up $500 here and $3500 there (I'm doing it this season at two places), but it's not a "shit ton."
    I wonder if you had this same view of beards back when you were hanging out with all these gangsters and billy waters? You realize it is logically the same thing but one is for live sports betting and one is for online?

    To me it reads like an admission you're not smart enough to not be caught. It is smart to realize that and not go lose your $$$. Kudos.

    But most importantly I wanted to point out something here. Redietz complains about it taking up too much mental time to pick specifically 5 games. If he understood EV he could apply it here to make a simple criteria and not fret over the 5. But EV is a concept he ridicules even though he admits to not being a "serious NFL bettor".

    He also seems to be admitting contests are not for serious bettors and an amateur thing. (which incidentally is the field he is playing against that he so readily brags about)

    So tell us why it would be acceptable morally and ethically for Billy Waters to use a beard but if APs bet under other accounts it is all at once some great immoral unethical thing? Please tell us. Not another <crickets> moment I hope.

    All in all this post shows a decent amount of progress for Redietz. Keep it up.
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

  9. #929
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I have no idea what you're talking about here. Nothing wrong with picking up the bonus. It's not a "shit-ton" unless you're using multiple names and family members and all that, and frankly -- if an offshore discovers you're doing that -- they will just keep your money and thumb their nose at you. So I don't do any of that multiple nonsense.

    You have odd sensibilities and interpretations of things. The reason I say "if it doesn't bother your processes" is because if you are a serious NFL handicapper and bettor (I really don't consider myself to be), then any distraction is a bad one. And contests can create bad habits. For example, an obvious one, most NFL ATS contests want you to pick five games a week ATS. That's a stupid arbitrary figure that has no bearing on the real gambling world. It can be a distraction to look at a schedule and in the back of your mind try to find five games. It's silly. And contests sometimes have deadlines that are not kickoff deadlines, so that's another distraction. If you are betting serious money, you don't need the distraction of small (or large) contests.

    I would refer you to Fezzik about contest versus real world issues. Ask him if he was a "Groupie."

    This bonus whoring stuff, nothing wrong with it, but sports books are within their rights to shut you down. And offshores, if you read the fine print, will keep your money on top of that if you pull stunts.

    Nothing wrong with picking up $500 here and $3500 there (I'm doing it this season at two places), but it's not a "shit ton."
    I wonder if you had this same view of beards back when you were hanging out with all these gangsters and billy waters? You realize it is logically the same thing but one is for live sports betting and one is for online?

    To me it reads like an admission you're not smart enough to not be caught. It is smart to realize that and not go lose your $$$. Kudos.

    But most importantly I wanted to point out something here. Redietz complains about it taking up too much mental time to pick specifically 5 games. If he understood EV he could apply it here to make a simple criteria and not fret over the 5. But EV is a concept he ridicules even though he admits to not being a "serious NFL bettor".

    He also seems to be admitting contests are not for serious bettors and an amateur thing. (which incidentally is the field he is playing against that he so readily brags about)

    So tell us why it would be acceptable morally and ethically for Billy Waters to use a beard but if APs bet under other accounts it is all at once some great immoral unethical thing? Please tell us. Not another <crickets> moment I hope.

    All in all this post shows a decent amount of progress for Redietz. Keep it up.

    Well, one thing about account -- it ain't hard to point out when he doesn't know what he's talking about. Per usual.

    First of all, the use of beards in Las Vegas was only recently made formally "not acceptable." So the bulk of Mr. Walters' wagering using beards was done long before there were any formal casino and Gaming Commission rules against it.

    Second, and more important, use of beards for the purposes of accruing bonuses deprives the people in whose names you are operating of the full value of the bonuses that are rightfully theirs. So you are sponging off other people and infringing on their ability to financially benefit from what is their right. If you are simply collecting bonuses for them and giving them those bonuses, then I salute you. I like Robin Hoods.

    Third, employing beards, and paying those beards to make wagers for you that you have arrived at via your own skills or expertise, benefits the beards because it pays them (in Mr. Walters' case, pays them well). They would also not have access to the plays they are making except for the fact that they are beards. Mr. Walters is actually benefitting them in multiple ways. He isn't infringing on their ability to make money, and he isn't siphoning off any bonuses.

    Fourth, for most of the time Mr. Walters was operating, the beards did not have to identify themselves to the sports books. It's not like they needed to give them players' cards most of the time. Technically, much of the time they were operating anonymously. Now I say "anonymously" because the ticket writers and managers knew who they were and who they were working for, but they didn't have to show ID or anything like that each time they wagered. Many of the runners wore enormous fanny pack type things and were visibly carrying.

    Use of beards, in summary, for betting for Mr. Walters, benefitted the beards.

    Use of beards for bonus whoring, as suggested by Axel and other alleged "APs," benefits the alleged "APs." In my opinion, it's both sleazy and exploitative, since the beards could make more money without the "APs."

    The amazing thing to me is that account knows absolutely nothing about sports betting, the history of sports betting, beards, runners, or in general what he's talking about. But he seems intent on spreading his ignorance at every opportunity.

    Anybody in sports betting knew everything I just wrote and knew it off the top of their heads. I can't seriously take time to address every idiot comment account makes. It's a waste of time.

    I would love to know if he actually believes he knows what he's talking about.

    To get a sense of what being a runner for Mr. Walters was about, I suggest a really bad (but gestalt-accurate) movie called The Runner, starring Courtney Cox and John Goodman. Goodman makes a fine Billy Walters. The movie's not Academy Award material, but it does give the sense of what kinds of pressures professional bettors in LV find themselves immersed in. I was there 100 days a year for more than 20 years, surrounded by and part of this.
    Last edited by redietz; 09-04-2023 at 09:35 AM.

  10. #930
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I have no idea what you're talking about here. Nothing wrong with picking up the bonus. It's not a "shit-ton" unless you're using multiple names and family members and all that, and frankly -- if an offshore discovers you're doing that -- they will just keep your money and thumb their nose at you. So I don't do any of that multiple nonsense.

    You have odd sensibilities and interpretations of things. The reason I say "if it doesn't bother your processes" is because if you are a serious NFL handicapper and bettor (I really don't consider myself to be), then any distraction is a bad one. And contests can create bad habits. For example, an obvious one, most NFL ATS contests want you to pick five games a week ATS. That's a stupid arbitrary figure that has no bearing on the real gambling world. It can be a distraction to look at a schedule and in the back of your mind try to find five games. It's silly. And contests sometimes have deadlines that are not kickoff deadlines, so that's another distraction. If you are betting serious money, you don't need the distraction of small (or large) contests.

    I would refer you to Fezzik about contest versus real world issues. Ask him if he was a "Groupie."

    This bonus whoring stuff, nothing wrong with it, but sports books are within their rights to shut you down. And offshores, if you read the fine print, will keep your money on top of that if you pull stunts.

    Nothing wrong with picking up $500 here and $3500 there (I'm doing it this season at two places), but it's not a "shit ton."
    I wonder if you had this same view of beards back when you were hanging out with all these gangsters and billy waters? You realize it is logically the same thing but one is for live sports betting and one is for online?

    To me it reads like an admission you're not smart enough to not be caught. It is smart to realize that and not go lose your $$$. Kudos.

    But most importantly I wanted to point out something here. Redietz complains about it taking up too much mental time to pick specifically 5 games. If he understood EV he could apply it here to make a simple criteria and not fret over the 5. But EV is a concept he ridicules even though he admits to not being a "serious NFL bettor".

    He also seems to be admitting contests are not for serious bettors and an amateur thing. (which incidentally is the field he is playing against that he so readily brags about)

    So tell us why it would be acceptable morally and ethically for Billy Waters to use a beard but if APs bet under other accounts it is all at once some great immoral unethical thing? Please tell us. Not another <crickets> moment I hope.

    All in all this post shows a decent amount of progress for Redietz. Keep it up.

    Well, one thing about account -- it ain't hard to point out when he doesn't know what he's talking about. Per usual.

    First of all, the use of beards in Las Vegas was only recently made formally "not acceptable." So the bulk of Mr. Walters' wagering using beards was done long before there were any formal casino and Gaming Commission rules against it.

    Second, and more important, use of beards for the purposes of accruing bonuses deprives the people in whose names you are operating of the full value of the bonuses that are rightfully theirs. So you are sponging off other people and infringing on their ability to financially benefit from what is their right. If you are simply collecting bonuses for them and giving them those bonuses, then I salute you. I like Robin Hoods.

    Third, employing beards, and paying those beards to make wagers for you that you have arrived at via your own skills or expertise, benefits the beards because it pays them (in Mr. Walters' case, pays them well). They would also not have access to the plays they are making except for the fact that they are beards. Mr. Walters is actually benefitting them in multiple ways. He isn't infringing on their ability to make money, and he isn't siphoning off any bonuses.

    Fourth, for most of the time Mr. Walters was operating, the beards did not have to identify themselves to the sports books. It's not like they needed to give them players' cards most of the time. Technically, much of the time they were operating anonymously. Now I say "anonymously" because the ticket writers and managers knew who they were and who they were working for, but they didn't have to show ID or anything like that each time they wagered. Many of the runners wore enormous fanny pack type things and were visibly carrying.

    Use of beards, in summary, for betting for Mr. Walters, benefitted the beards.

    Use of beards for bonus whoring, as suggested by Axel and other alleged "APs," benefits the alleged "APs." In my opinion, it's both sleazy and exploitative, since the beards could make more money without the "APs."

    The amazing thing to me is that account knows absolutely nothing about sports betting, the history of sports betting, beards, runners, or in general what he's talking about. But he seems intent on spreading his ignorance at every opportunity.

    Anybody in sports betting knew everything I just wrote and knew it off the top of their heads. I can't seriously take time to address every idiot comment account makes. It's a waste of time.

    I would love to know if he actually believes he knows what he's talking about.

    To get a sense of what being a runner for Mr. Walters was about, I suggest a really bad (but gestalt-accurate) movie called The Runner, starring Courtney Cox and John Goodman. Goodman makes a fine Billy Walters. The movie's not Academy Award material, but it does give the sense of what kinds of pressures professional bettors in LV find themselves immersed in. I was there 100 days a year for more than 20 years, surrounded by and part of this.
    It is great how you can't point out what I am wrong about but you can proclaim how I don't know what i'm talking about.

    The only thing that I don't really know is whether beards were limited back then.

    The fact of the matter is beards were often used to circumvent betting limits imposed by the book. Now with computers it is done via a different mechanism.

    Funny how Redietz now claims it isn't acceptable. Mr I knew gangsters scared of breaking a few rules. lmao. No wonder he thinks gangsters are cool. Clownworld.

    No one is being deprives of bonuses if they're never using them. EVEN then it in no way implies they aren't paid. doh. Yet somehow Redietz knows they're not paid while knowing very little about that hustle.

    Somehow old school beards were all legitimate because "they were carrying"..<scratches head> wait WHAT?!? clowny clown clown.

    I believe I know what I'm talking about, yes. You never ever demonstrate otherwise outside of the chest-beating proclamations of an incredibly insecure person

    The weirdest low to middling IQ thing that Rediests insists on stating is how everyone who beards for bettors online would somehow find their way to being a profitable sports bettor. It is such a stupid-ass thing to say. Dumb as fuck. Literally.

    Not only that I have heard of a bettor who is a very serious guy talk about how he does it. It isn't near as different from Redietz discussed. This guy is a additional layer of middleman in the scheme but it is the same ol same ol. He gets bettors by going around home games in LV and elsewhere. Hammers books. Basically operates both sides. This person has survived LV for 10+ years. I don't personally like the man but I have no doubt he is isn't very successful at what he does. I've only played with him in HL rooms in LV though. No chance Redietz and his low limit NL tournament bullshit would ever meet people like that in the wild (so to speak). Living on old memories that might very well be kewl style. Thats his style. lololol
    Last edited by accountinquestion; 09-04-2023 at 10:14 AM.
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

  11. #931
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post

    I wonder if you had this same view of beards back when you were hanging out with all these gangsters and billy waters? You realize it is logically the same thing but one is for live sports betting and one is for online?

    To me it reads like an admission you're not smart enough to not be caught. It is smart to realize that and not go lose your $$$. Kudos.

    But most importantly I wanted to point out something here. Redietz complains about it taking up too much mental time to pick specifically 5 games. If he understood EV he could apply it here to make a simple criteria and not fret over the 5. But EV is a concept he ridicules even though he admits to not being a "serious NFL bettor".

    He also seems to be admitting contests are not for serious bettors and an amateur thing. (which incidentally is the field he is playing against that he so readily brags about)

    So tell us why it would be acceptable morally and ethically for Billy Waters to use a beard but if APs bet under other accounts it is all at once some great immoral unethical thing? Please tell us. Not another <crickets> moment I hope.

    All in all this post shows a decent amount of progress for Redietz. Keep it up.

    Well, one thing about account -- it ain't hard to point out when he doesn't know what he's talking about. Per usual.

    First of all, the use of beards in Las Vegas was only recently made formally "not acceptable." So the bulk of Mr. Walters' wagering using beards was done long before there were any formal casino and Gaming Commission rules against it.

    Second, and more important, use of beards for the purposes of accruing bonuses deprives the people in whose names you are operating of the full value of the bonuses that are rightfully theirs. So you are sponging off other people and infringing on their ability to financially benefit from what is their right. If you are simply collecting bonuses for them and giving them those bonuses, then I salute you. I like Robin Hoods.

    Third, employing beards, and paying those beards to make wagers for you that you have arrived at via your own skills or expertise, benefits the beards because it pays them (in Mr. Walters' case, pays them well). They would also not have access to the plays they are making except for the fact that they are beards. Mr. Walters is actually benefitting them in multiple ways. He isn't infringing on their ability to make money, and he isn't siphoning off any bonuses.

    Fourth, for most of the time Mr. Walters was operating, the beards did not have to identify themselves to the sports books. It's not like they needed to give them players' cards most of the time. Technically, much of the time they were operating anonymously. Now I say "anonymously" because the ticket writers and managers knew who they were and who they were working for, but they didn't have to show ID or anything like that each time they wagered. Many of the runners wore enormous fanny pack type things and were visibly carrying.

    Use of beards, in summary, for betting for Mr. Walters, benefitted the beards.

    Use of beards for bonus whoring, as suggested by Axel and other alleged "APs," benefits the alleged "APs." In my opinion, it's both sleazy and exploitative, since the beards could make more money without the "APs."

    The amazing thing to me is that account knows absolutely nothing about sports betting, the history of sports betting, beards, runners, or in general what he's talking about. But he seems intent on spreading his ignorance at every opportunity.

    Anybody in sports betting knew everything I just wrote and knew it off the top of their heads. I can't seriously take time to address every idiot comment account makes. It's a waste of time.

    I would love to know if he actually believes he knows what he's talking about.

    To get a sense of what being a runner for Mr. Walters was about, I suggest a really bad (but gestalt-accurate) movie called The Runner, starring Courtney Cox and John Goodman. Goodman makes a fine Billy Walters. The movie's not Academy Award material, but it does give the sense of what kinds of pressures professional bettors in LV find themselves immersed in. I was there 100 days a year for more than 20 years, surrounded by and part of this.
    It is great how you can't point out what I am wrong about but you can proclaim how I don't know what i'm talking about.

    The only thing that I don't really know is whether beards were limited back then.

    The fact of the matter is beards were often used to circumvent betting limits imposed by the book. Now with computers it is done via a different mechanism.

    Funny how Redietz now claims it isn't acceptable. Mr I knew gangsters scared of breaking a few rules. lmao. No wonder he thinks gangsters are cool. Clownworld.

    No one is being deprives of bonuses if they're never using them. EVEN then it in no way implies they aren't paid. doh. Yet somehow Redietz knows they're not paid while knowing very little about that hustle.

    Somehow old school beards were all legitimate because "they were carrying"..<scratches head> wait WHAT?!? clowny clown clown.

    I believe I know what I'm talking about, yes. You never ever demonstrate otherwise outside of the chest-beating proclamations of an incredibly insecure person

    The weirdest low to middling IQ thing that Rediests insists on stating is how everyone who beards for bettors online would somehow find their way to being a profitable sports bettor. It is such a stupid-ass thing to say. Dumb as fuck. Literally.

    Not only that I have heard of a bettor who is a very serious guy talk about how he does it. It isn't near as different from Redietz discussed. This guy is a additional layer of middleman in the scheme but it is the same ol same ol. He gets bettors by going around home games in LV and elsewhere. Hammers books. Basically operates both sides. This person has survived LV for 10+ years. I don't personally like the man but I have no doubt he is isn't very successful at what he does. I've only played with him in HL rooms in LV though. No chance Redietz and his low limit NL tournament bullshit would ever meet people like that in the wild (so to speak). Living on old memories that might very well be kewl style. Thats his style. lololol

    "No one is being deprived of bonuses if they're never using them."

    What sleazy scamming nonsense. Has it ever occurred to you to explain to them how to do it? What are they -- deaf, dumb, and blind?

    Like nobody wants free money. Or is smart enough to do grade school betting to process the bonuses.

    All hail the "APs." They're just taking money nobody else wants or is smart enough to roll over.

    Disturbing sleazy nonsense.

  12. #932
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post


    Well, one thing about account -- it ain't hard to point out when he doesn't know what he's talking about. Per usual.

    First of all, the use of beards in Las Vegas was only recently made formally "not acceptable." So the bulk of Mr. Walters' wagering using beards was done long before there were any formal casino and Gaming Commission rules against it.

    Second, and more important, use of beards for the purposes of accruing bonuses deprives the people in whose names you are operating of the full value of the bonuses that are rightfully theirs. So you are sponging off other people and infringing on their ability to financially benefit from what is their right. If you are simply collecting bonuses for them and giving them those bonuses, then I salute you. I like Robin Hoods.

    Third, employing beards, and paying those beards to make wagers for you that you have arrived at via your own skills or expertise, benefits the beards because it pays them (in Mr. Walters' case, pays them well). They would also not have access to the plays they are making except for the fact that they are beards. Mr. Walters is actually benefitting them in multiple ways. He isn't infringing on their ability to make money, and he isn't siphoning off any bonuses.

    Fourth, for most of the time Mr. Walters was operating, the beards did not have to identify themselves to the sports books. It's not like they needed to give them players' cards most of the time. Technically, much of the time they were operating anonymously. Now I say "anonymously" because the ticket writers and managers knew who they were and who they were working for, but they didn't have to show ID or anything like that each time they wagered. Many of the runners wore enormous fanny pack type things and were visibly carrying.

    Use of beards, in summary, for betting for Mr. Walters, benefitted the beards.

    Use of beards for bonus whoring, as suggested by Axel and other alleged "APs," benefits the alleged "APs." In my opinion, it's both sleazy and exploitative, since the beards could make more money without the "APs."

    The amazing thing to me is that account knows absolutely nothing about sports betting, the history of sports betting, beards, runners, or in general what he's talking about. But he seems intent on spreading his ignorance at every opportunity.

    Anybody in sports betting knew everything I just wrote and knew it off the top of their heads. I can't seriously take time to address every idiot comment account makes. It's a waste of time.

    I would love to know if he actually believes he knows what he's talking about.

    To get a sense of what being a runner for Mr. Walters was about, I suggest a really bad (but gestalt-accurate) movie called The Runner, starring Courtney Cox and John Goodman. Goodman makes a fine Billy Walters. The movie's not Academy Award material, but it does give the sense of what kinds of pressures professional bettors in LV find themselves immersed in. I was there 100 days a year for more than 20 years, surrounded by and part of this.
    It is great how you can't point out what I am wrong about but you can proclaim how I don't know what i'm talking about.

    The only thing that I don't really know is whether beards were limited back then.

    The fact of the matter is beards were often used to circumvent betting limits imposed by the book. Now with computers it is done via a different mechanism.

    Funny how Redietz now claims it isn't acceptable. Mr I knew gangsters scared of breaking a few rules. lmao. No wonder he thinks gangsters are cool. Clownworld.

    No one is being deprives of bonuses if they're never using them. EVEN then it in no way implies they aren't paid. doh. Yet somehow Redietz knows they're not paid while knowing very little about that hustle.

    Somehow old school beards were all legitimate because "they were carrying"..<scratches head> wait WHAT?!? clowny clown clown.

    I believe I know what I'm talking about, yes. You never ever demonstrate otherwise outside of the chest-beating proclamations of an incredibly insecure person

    The weirdest low to middling IQ thing that Rediests insists on stating is how everyone who beards for bettors online would somehow find their way to being a profitable sports bettor. It is such a stupid-ass thing to say. Dumb as fuck. Literally.

    Not only that I have heard of a bettor who is a very serious guy talk about how he does it. It isn't near as different from Redietz discussed. This guy is a additional layer of middleman in the scheme but it is the same ol same ol. He gets bettors by going around home games in LV and elsewhere. Hammers books. Basically operates both sides. This person has survived LV for 10+ years. I don't personally like the man but I have no doubt he is isn't very successful at what he does. I've only played with him in HL rooms in LV though. No chance Redietz and his low limit NL tournament bullshit would ever meet people like that in the wild (so to speak). Living on old memories that might very well be kewl style. Thats his style. lololol

    "No one is being deprived of bonuses if they're never using them."

    What sleazy scamming nonsense. Has it ever occurred to you to explain to them how to do it? What are they -- deaf, dumb, and blind?

    Like nobody wants free money. Or is smart enough to do grade school betting to process the bonuses.

    All hail the "APs." They're just taking money nobody else wants or is smart enough to roll over.

    Disturbing sleazy nonsense.
    "Sleazy". I'd love to aee you try to explain how people investing in you vs teaching them is morally different. You've clearly never tried to teach non-gamblers gambling. You seem to not even consider the time involved for likely failure. There is also little incentive. Goddam you're one insecure dumbass.

    What if they have no interest in learning like the vast majority of people?. Man you are stupid. Literally a moron.

    I see why you can't pay 500 Tax bill. Too busy teaching people how to handicap and win $$.

    "Scammer" lolol projection.
    It is official. Redietz will never be on Dan Druff's podcast. "too much integrity"

  13. #933
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by accountinquestion View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    I have no idea what you're talking about here. Nothing wrong with picking up the bonus. It's not a "shit-ton" unless you're using multiple names and family members and all that, and frankly -- if an offshore discovers you're doing that -- they will just keep your money and thumb their nose at you. So I don't do any of that multiple nonsense.

    You have odd sensibilities and interpretations of things. The reason I say "if it doesn't bother your processes" is because if you are a serious NFL handicapper and bettor (I really don't consider myself to be), then any distraction is a bad one. And contests can create bad habits. For example, an obvious one, most NFL ATS contests want you to pick five games a week ATS. That's a stupid arbitrary figure that has no bearing on the real gambling world. It can be a distraction to look at a schedule and in the back of your mind try to find five games. It's silly. And contests sometimes have deadlines that are not kickoff deadlines, so that's another distraction. If you are betting serious money, you don't need the distraction of small (or large) contests.

    I would refer you to Fezzik about contest versus real world issues. Ask him if he was a "Groupie."

    This bonus whoring stuff, nothing wrong with it, but sports books are within their rights to shut you down. And offshores, if you read the fine print, will keep your money on top of that if you pull stunts.

    Nothing wrong with picking up $500 here and $3500 there (I'm doing it this season at two places), but it's not a "shit ton."
    I wonder if you had this same view of beards back when you were hanging out with all these gangsters and billy waters? You realize it is logically the same thing but one is for live sports betting and one is for online?

    To me it reads like an admission you're not smart enough to not be caught. It is smart to realize that and not go lose your $$$. Kudos.

    But most importantly I wanted to point out something here. Redietz complains about it taking up too much mental time to pick specifically 5 games. If he understood EV he could apply it here to make a simple criteria and not fret over the 5. But EV is a concept he ridicules even though he admits to not being a "serious NFL bettor".

    He also seems to be admitting contests are not for serious bettors and an amateur thing. (which incidentally is the field he is playing against that he so readily brags about)

    So tell us why it would be acceptable morally and ethically for Billy Waters to use a beard but if APs bet under other accounts it is all at once some great immoral unethical thing? Please tell us. Not another <crickets> moment I hope.

    All in all this post shows a decent amount of progress for Redietz. Keep it up.



    First of all, the use of beards in Las Vegas was only recently made formally "not acceptable." So the bulk of Mr. Walters' wagering using beards was done long before there were any formal casino and Gaming Commission rules against it.
    I'm certainly no expert but I don't believe this is accurate. From my understanding, it was illegal going back to at least the early 90's. Walters was using runners up until 2007 give or take 5 years?

    Either way, I'm surprised you didn't mention this, but I believe there are various ways to legally incorporate as a business and or have people on a percentage, thus making sports bet running legal. He was probably set up as a sports business before he even considered the legalities of runners.

  14. #934
    Believe it or not there are people in this world who have neither the funds nor the inclination to spend thousands of dollars on longshot parlays.

  15. #935
    Originally Posted by smurgerburger View Post
    Believe it or not there are people in this world who have neither the funds nor the inclination to spend thousands of dollars on longshot parlays.
    You don't need longshot parlays to get some good value out of bonuses. But yeah, some people don't like any risk.
    Even if you tell them that they could lock up money hedging off they just aren't interested.

  16. #936
    Came across an interesting line that’s a preview to an article Per Jack Andrews of Unabated about pick ‘em contests: “the biggest misnomer in these contests is they are a test of your handicapping ability. They’re not.”

    Cue the condescending post from red man.

  17. #937
    Originally Posted by mcap View Post
    Came across an interesting line that’s a preview to an article Per Jack Andrews of Unabated about pick ‘em contests: “the biggest misnomer in these contests is they are a test of your handicapping ability. They’re not.”

    Cue the condescending post from red man.
    Ouch, that should have come with a trigger warning.

  18. #938
    Originally Posted by mcap View Post
    Came across an interesting line that’s a preview to an article Per Jack Andrews of Unabated about pick ‘em contests: “the biggest misnomer in these contests is they are a test of your handicapping ability. They’re not.”

    Cue the condescending post from red man.
    Gamblers, whichever, and as a whole, are sleazy. They constantly "shit" on each other, and themselves. Just look at the thus forums. Even the passive aggressive stuff at the Wizard's. A "contest of contests" (in each other's head), with nothing to truly build on. Ha.
    Last edited by Gottlob1; 09-05-2023 at 09:21 AM.
    Garnabby + OppsIdidItAgain + ThomasClines (or TomasHClines) + The Grim Reaper + LMR + OneHitWonder + Bill Yung + 1HitWonder ---> GOTTLOB1 = Praise to God!

    Blog at https://garnabby.blogspot.com/2023/08/blog-post.html

  19. #939
    Originally Posted by Gottlob1 View Post
    Gamblers, whichever, and as a whole, are sleazy. They constantly "shit" on each other, and themselves. Just look at the thus forums. Even the passive aggressive stuff at the Wizard's. A "contest of contests" (in each other's head), with nothing to truly build on. Ha.
    The characteristics you describe are commonly found across social media, not just related to gambling.

    The anonymity and freedom from repercussions allows us to shed civility for aggression.

    It's in our nature, eh?
    What, Me Worry?

  20. #940
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Even if you tell them that they could lock up money hedging off they just aren't interested.
    All the motivated people are friends or relatives of Dietz.

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