Professional Sportsbetting

[mickeycrimm]

Related to Billy Walters.... "armed with records detailing how the gambling operation was set up legitimately through a limited liability corporation. The move surprised and impressed authorities, as did the fact that a former Vegas detective was overseeing the group's security arm. "They had one of the biggest law firms in the city set up their entire corporation and their books," says Brian Rutledge, Clark County's chief deputy district attorney. "It was scrupulously set up to be in compliance with all the gaming regulations. They were better set up legally than your average business, let's put it that way."

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...versial-bettor

This is right out of the Billy Walters book. Had to screenshot it to post it up:

[Gottlob1]

Why do you even post on gambling forums?

---> Anonymous does not forgive.

https://anagram-solver.net/%20Why%20...s?partial=true


Interesting in the sense that Bill's last two posts were about that very question along with mention of Anonymous.

https://vegascasinotalk.com/forum/sh...ll=1#post77796

In specific, I guess, to watch people try to get something for nothing.

At first, it was fun to try the impossible gambling systems math, but, later, to watch the AP crap spiral out of control. I mean, the Wizard's only note of the Burning Man baloney was a "stomach bug" from using porta-potties no longer maintained, and, later, a bus ride out.

Now, Crimm pretending to give a shit about Walters. A profound waste of time.

[AxelWolf]

Related to Billy Walters.... "armed with records detailing how the gambling operation was set up legitimately through a limited liability corporation. The move surprised and impressed authorities, as did the fact that a former Vegas detective was overseeing the group's security arm. "They had one of the biggest law firms in the city set up their entire corporation and their books," says Brian Rutledge, Clark County's chief deputy district attorney. "It was scrupulously set up to be in compliance with all the gaming regulations. They were better set up legally than your average business, let's put it that way."

https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...versial-bettor

This is right out of the Billy Walters book. Had to screenshot it to post it up:

Thanks MC. It's always good when someone accuses you of not knowing something and they state supposed facts when you know those facts are not correct. I'm not an expert on sports betting, gambling law's or guys like Billy Walter's. But sometimes you know what you know.

[AxelWolf]

So far I have 4,000 down on the first week using Halfsmokes all dog's first 2 weeks of the NFL season method. I'm using all 100% bonuses(that's my average 50% - 150%) I ran out of funds with bonuses on my offshore accounts due to some larger hedge bets I have been making in B&M Casinos. I have good reasons to hedge.

I'll probably jam some more money in with bonuses and toss it at the method above. I don't want to go balls to the wall slamming this big with bonuses, because bonuses come with wagering requirements. In order to maximize the value you need to find value bets and that's time-consuming. There's value regardless doing it half-assed, however, I feel guilty giving up so much value doing it that way. It just doesn't make sense to get $200-$400 in value on something that has $1,000-$2,000 in value.

Added another 3k to the method above. Unfortunately, I have a hedge bet on tonight's game. I got -6 on KC and it went off at -4. I really want KC to cover. As part of the method I have more on the Lions but still rather KC win.

[Rob.Singer]

So far I have 4,000 down on the first week using Halfsmokes all dog's first 2 weeks of the NFL season method. I'm using all 100% bonuses(that's my average 50% - 150%) I ran out of funds with bonuses on my offshore accounts due to some larger hedge bets I have been making in B&M Casinos. I have good reasons to hedge.

I'll probably jam some more money in with bonuses and toss it at the method above. I don't want to go balls to the wall slamming this big with bonuses, because bonuses come with wagering requirements. In order to maximize the value you need to find value bets and that's time-consuming. There's value regardless doing it half-assed, however, I feel guilty giving up so much value doing it that way. It just doesn't make sense to get $200-$400 in value on something that has $1,000-$2,000 in value.

Added another 3k to the method above. Unfortunately, I have a hedge bet on tonight's game. I got -6 on KC and it went off at -4. I really want KC to cover. As part of the method I have more on the Lions but still rather KC win.

Tough game. Did you check with redietz before making these bets?

[AxelWolf]

So far I have 4,000 down on the first week using Halfsmokes all dog's first 2 weeks of the NFL season method. I'm using all 100% bonuses(that's my average 50% - 150%) I ran out of funds with bonuses on my offshore accounts due to some larger hedge bets I have been making in B&M Casinos. I have good reasons to hedge.

I'll probably jam some more money in with bonuses and toss it at the method above. I don't want to go balls to the wall slamming this big with bonuses, because bonuses come with wagering requirements. In order to maximize the value you need to find value bets and that's time-consuming. There's value regardless doing it half-assed, however, I feel guilty giving up so much value doing it that way. It just doesn't make sense to get $200-$400 in value on something that has $1,000-$2,000 in value.

Added another 3k to the method above. Unfortunately, I have a hedge bet on tonight's game. I got -6 on KC and it went off at -4. I really want KC to cover. As part of the method I have more on the Lions but still rather KC win.

Tough game. Did you check with redietz before making these bets?

I bet both sides on tonight's game(hedge bet) I wanted KC because that would've drained my online account while casing in at a B&M casino, I had a slight chance to break even on one side and win the other side. This would've eliminated Wager requirements and made me eligible for more bonus money ASAP(100% on 1k+ plus a $500-1k free bet with a 10x roll.) I actually had more bet on the Dog since it falls under the above system. I didn't check with Red because no handicapping necessary. I have a fair amount of faith in the historical data presented to me and the logic behind it. If it's just an anomaly in the data with no real logic behind it... no harm no foul, since I have built in value using the bonuses. Since I won my bets online, Ill just roll that money into the above-mentioned strategy. Click bet, click bet, click bet.....FFS outo piolet clicking and I bet 2 favorites. Pain in the ass to get them to cancel bets.

[Dan Druff]

I had Detroit moneyline. But I waited to bet them until I could confirm Kelce would be out.

Barely made it.

[Mission146]

Everyone should know that the DraftKings promotion I wrote about seems to have returned:

https://wizardofodds.com/online-gamb...-nfl-promotion

Basically, this promotion states that if your MoneyLine team leads by 10+, at any point, your bet pays whether or not they win the game.

Last year, I did a study fully analyzing the previous five NFL seasons as if this could be bet every single game.

I haven't (and probably won't) do the same for last year's season, but the cliff notes from five years of data were that ALL UNDERDOGS would result in $78,501.71 in total profits over all five years and an expected profit of 24.23% of all monies bet. 2017 was the worst year both for return +$10,177.63 and profit percentage, 15.9%.

Favorites were also slightly profitable, but only showed gains to the tune of 1.65% over the five years and actually lost money anyway, in 2017.

This promotion was offered for two or three weeks last year. It is possible to lose on this promotion as this changes the result (over the five years sampled) only 5.32% of the time for favorites (who suck anyway) and 7.95% of the time for underdogs.

For example, if you picked 15 games this way, all underdogs, then you are only expected to see 1.1925 losses change to wins. As a result, it isn't anything near out of the question to go one or a few weeks in a row without this happening at all. Still, the EV is unquestionably good.

(Druff, don't get upset, but I'm copying this verbatim and finding an applicable PFA thread; there's no reason to paraphrase it, imo.)

[redietz]

I had Detroit moneyline. But I waited to bet them until I could confirm Kelce would be out.

Barely made it.

I am officially tied for last in TopBet's NFL Picks no-spread contest after last night. Northbet, however, changed to a scaled system where you get more points for taking moneyline underdogs to win outright, so I did. Therefore I am now tied for first. LOL. Last and first.

I didn't bet the game. Invested $50 in fantasy. Had Bell on my roster because Kelce was out. Made a grand total of $10 profit. I did not have Montgomery. You had to have both Montgomery and Bell to have a shot at real money. Did not take a genius to do that, so I messed up. Taking a backup tight end to score was a no-brainer with Kelce out, but taking the second of the backup tight ends required a little thought.

[AxelWolf]

I had Detroit moneyline. But I waited to bet them until I could confirm Kelce would be out.

Barely made it.

I am officially tied for last in TopBet's NFL Picks no-spread contest after last night. Northbet, however, changed to a scaled system where you get more points for taking moneyline underdogs to win outright, so I did. Therefore I am now tied for first. LOL. Last and first.

I didn't bet the game. Invested $50 in fantasy. Had Bell on my roster because Kelce was out. Made a grand total of $10 profit. I did not have Montgomery. You had to have both Montgomery and Bell to have a shot at real money. Did not take a genius to do that, so I messed up. Taking a backup tight end to score was a no-brainer with Kelce out, but taking the second of the backup tight ends required a little thought.

I have avoided TopBet because last time I looked into them they allowed crypto deposits but not cashouts.

"Can I withdraw through Bitcoin?
We are looking into supporting full Bitcoin payout functionality in the near future."

I don't know if that's changed since but it's still on their website. I find it odd they accept Crypto but don't pay out in Crypto. How do you yourself get your funds in and out? Obviously, there's the old-fashioned way with checks and wire transfers but I prefer Crypto. They seem to have a 150% up to 2500

[Rob.Singer]

I had Detroit moneyline. But I waited to bet them until I could confirm Kelce would be out.

Barely made it.

I didn't bet this game but my pick was Detroit ATS. Made the most sense. New KC receivers, Lions were hot the 2nd half of last year and they got noticeably better with the draft, Goff is closing in on the record for consecutive passes w/o an int., Kelce absent, and all the pressure was on the Chiefs as Champs.

What lost the game was Toney's KEY drops. Mahomes was much better than his stats indicated. But he now realizes that great QB's need to go the extra mile to highly motivate the other guys to step up when the #1 receiver is out. He inexplicably failed to do that, regardless of how much time he had.

[mickeycrimm]

The LLCs are recent (and have mostly failed miserably), so no -- the LLCs being legal do not overlap most of Mr. Walters' use of runners. Most runners were paid cash wages. Substantial cash wages. The LLCs are about a decade old.

Axelwolf, I'm surprised you don't know this. Stunned is a better word....really, if you don't know this stuff off the top of your head, you are sadly underinformed.

I'm stunned. Stunned, I tell you! Stunned that redietz made such a bigtime blunder."

So, Mr. "I know it all and you know nothing." How are you going to spin, er, explain the difference between your statement above and Billy Walters statement below?

[redietz]

The LLCs are recent (and have mostly failed miserably), so no -- the LLCs being legal do not overlap most of Mr. Walters' use of runners. Most runners were paid cash wages. Substantial cash wages. The LLCs are about a decade old.

Axelwolf, I'm surprised you don't know this. Stunned is a better word....really, if you don't know this stuff off the top of your head, you are sadly underinformed.

I'm stunned. Stunned, I tell you! Stunned that redietz made such a bigtime blunder."

So, Mr. "I know it all and you know nothing." How are you going to spin, er, explain the difference between your statement above and Billy Walters statement below?

That's why I said "most." You seem to think that Mr. Walters was the only person employing runners in Las Vegas. Guess again. Do you really think that Mr. Walters invented "running?" Sorry, dude.

I'm sure Mr. Walters employed every angle and opportunity at his disposal. Me personally, I've been a proprietor, a partner, head of a corporation, a professional gambler, whatever filing saved the most money.

The point of Mr. Walters' writing that in the book (and of course I have the book right here) was to sort of brag that he did things differently than the other gamblers employing runners. He was bragging on his inventiveness and business savvy.

There have always been "runners," mickey. Mr. Walters didn't invent them.

Mickey, demonstrating the usual "AP" expertise and historical knowledge.

[mickeycrimm]

The LLCs are recent (and have mostly failed miserably), so no -- the LLCs being legal do not overlap most of Mr. Walters' use of runners. Most runners were paid cash wages. Substantial cash wages. The LLCs are about a decade old.

Axelwolf, I'm surprised you don't know this. Stunned is a better word....really, if you don't know this stuff off the top of your head, you are sadly underinformed.

I'm stunned. Stunned, I tell you! Stunned that redietz made such a bigtime blunder."

So, Mr. "I know it all and you know nothing." How are you going to spin, er, explain the difference between your statement above and Billy Walters statement below?

That's why I said "most." You seem to think that Mr. Walters was the only person employing runners in Las Vegas. Guess again. Do you really think that Mr. Walters invented "running?" Sorry, dude.

I'm sure Mr. Walters employed every angle and opportunity at his disposal. Me personally, I've been a proprietor, a partner, head of a corporation, a professional gambler, whatever filing saved the most money.

The point of Mr. Walters' writing that in the book (and of course I have the book right here) was to sort of brag that he did things differently than the other gamblers employing runners. He was bragging on his inventiveness and business savvy.

There have always been "runners," mickey. Mr. Walters didn't invent them.

Mickey, demonstrating the usual "AP" expertise and historical knowledge.

LOL Ditz, your dog ain't hunting. You're in the no spin zone. Mr. "I got more routes than United Airlines." You made an ass clown of yourself. You should have read the book before you made up the bullshit. Please, don't bore me with the deflections. You're embarrassing yourself. Are you always an idiot or just when I'm around?

[AxelWolf]

The LLCs are recent (and have mostly failed miserably), so no -- the LLCs being legal do not overlap most of Mr. Walters' use of runners. Most runners were paid cash wages. Substantial cash wages. The LLCs are about a decade old.

Axelwolf, I'm surprised you don't know this. Stunned is a better word....really, if you don't know this stuff off the top of your head, you are sadly underinformed.

I'm stunned. Stunned, I tell you! Stunned that redietz made such a bigtime blunder."

So, Mr. "I know it all and you know nothing." How are you going to spin, er, explain the difference between your statement above and Billy Walters statement below?

That's why I said "most." You seem to think that Mr. Walters was the only person employing runners in Las Vegas. Guess again. Do you really think that Mr. Walters invented "running?" Sorry, dude.

I'm sure Mr. Walters employed every angle and opportunity at his disposal. Me personally, I've been a proprietor, a partner, head of a corporation, a professional gambler, whatever filing saved the most money.

The point of Mr. Walters' writing that in the book (and of course I have the book right here) was to sort of brag that he did things differently than the other gamblers employing runners. He was bragging on his inventiveness and business savvy.

There have always been "runners," mickey. Mr. Walters didn't invent them.

Mickey, demonstrating the usual "AP" expertise and historical knowledge.

Why do you think MC believes BW invented running? I highly doubt he believed that to be the case. I heard about runners long before I ever heard of Billy Walters. I can assume most people had never heard of Walters in the 90's. I'm sure MC has known about runners before knowing of BW.

[mickeycrimm]

I'm stunned. Stunned, I tell you! Stunned that redietz made such a bigtime blunder."

So, Mr. "I know it all and you know nothing." How are you going to spin, er, explain the difference between your statement above and Billy Walters statement below?

That's why I said "most." You seem to think that Mr. Walters was the only person employing runners in Las Vegas. Guess again. Do you really think that Mr. Walters invented "running?" Sorry, dude.

I'm sure Mr. Walters employed every angle and opportunity at his disposal. Me personally, I've been a proprietor, a partner, head of a corporation, a professional gambler, whatever filing saved the most money.

The point of Mr. Walters' writing that in the book (and of course I have the book right here) was to sort of brag that he did things differently than the other gamblers employing runners. He was bragging on his inventiveness and business savvy.

There have always been "runners," mickey. Mr. Walters didn't invent them.

Mickey, demonstrating the usual "AP" expertise and historical knowledge.

Why do you think MC believes BW invented running? I highly doubt he believed that to be the case. I heard about runners long before I ever heard of Billy Walters. I can assume most people had never heard of Walters in the 90's. I'm sure MC has known about runners before knowing of BW.

It's stupid to say I thought Walters invented runners. Ditz is just deflecting with bullshit. I knew about runners long before I knew about Billy Walters. It was 2011 I first heard about Walters when he appeared on 60 minutes. I had read The Smart Money which was about Walters but Konik gave no clue as to his identity. Redietz is just deflecting with irrelevant bullshit because he got caught not knowing the real story but acting like he knew all about it. He said the LLC's only been around for 10 years. Walters states in the book that he was doing it in 1997. That's like 27 years.

[accountinquestion]

It is idiotic. As if runners are some concept that takes savvy. Layers of stupid.

[AxelWolf]

That's why I said "most." You seem to think that Mr. Walters was the only person employing runners in Las Vegas. Guess again. Do you really think that Mr. Walters invented "running?" Sorry, dude.

I'm sure Mr. Walters employed every angle and opportunity at his disposal. Me personally, I've been a proprietor, a partner, head of a corporation, a professional gambler, whatever filing saved the most money.

The point of Mr. Walters' writing that in the book (and of course I have the book right here) was to sort of brag that he did things differently than the other gamblers employing runners. He was bragging on his inventiveness and business savvy.

There have always been "runners," mickey. Mr. Walters didn't invent them.

Mickey, demonstrating the usual "AP" expertise and historical knowledge.

Why do you think MC believes BW invented running? I highly doubt he believed that to be the case. I heard about runners long before I ever heard of Billy Walters. I can assume most people had never heard of Walters in the 90's. I'm sure MC has known about runners before knowing of BW.

It's stupid to say I thought Walters invented runners. Ditz is just deflecting with bullshit. I knew about runners long before I knew about Billy Walters. It was 2011 I first heard about Walters when he appeared on 60 minutes. I had read The Smart Money which was about Walters but Konik gave no clue as to his identity. Redietz is just deflecting with irrelevant bullshit because he got caught not knowing the real story but acting like he knew all about it. He said the LLC's only been around for 10 years. Walters states in the book that he was doing it in 1997. That's like 27 years.

Yeah, there was a little chatter about him here and there in the early 2000s but it wasn't too much and the scale wasn't realized by most.
it's hard to relate to the situation because almost no one else has a chance to do those types of things on that scale. I kind of like to live in the reality of what's possible for average to above-average AP, not the top .1%

I also prefer the FEDs not going after me and going to prison and having to be pardoned.

[MDawg]

Where's mcap? This thread and a good many others have nothing to do with Vegas, or with anyone who resides or claims to reside in Vegas.

[accountinquestion]

questions about bonus grinding.

With my questions I am assuming that straight betting without bonuses does not have the EV to make it worth it without being the next level of serious. So I am going to narrow my questions to bonus rolling over via offshore sites.
Maybe Axel can reply to this. He seems to be our expert resident pro sports-bettor.

1) Is SBR still the place to go to find out if books operate honestly?
2) Do bonuses mostly appear during football season? (Is bonus grinding a thing year around for a person moderately motivated)
3) How often are people limited on offshore books? Is the concept of cover plays (or whatever they're called) a thing?

My rant on limting .. vv

IMO it seems it is either limiting or making lines really sharp as there is no in between. What these goofball bettors on twitter seem to believe is that books shouldn't be allowed to limit. Which is very self-serving and doesn't really answer how books would not just lose to too many beards. If books could enforce one person per bettor then sure no lmiting seems reasonable but that isn't happening.

If Redietz wants to give his feedback it would be welcome. Maybe we can figure out the EV of sports-picking tournaments vs bonus grinding.

No offense to Redietz but I'm really not interested in handicapping because I'm not a sports nerd. I just glaze over when presented with analysis/opinions. It is like any sort of nerdom. If you're not into that world then it is just boring as fuck.