Professional Sportsbetting

[Dan Druff]

This thread is turning into complete shit. I might have to edit it later.

[Dan Druff]

Anyway, I finally lost in the NFL. My dream of being the first person in the world to post 100 or so picks and go 100-0 has been shattered.

New England let me down. The sad thing is that I almost skipped it. I looked at that the whole week but there were elements I didn't like about it. Just couldn't do it.

Then I saw that Vegas was getting a bunch of money on Miami yet still moving the line to entice more Miami betting. And the sharps seemed to love New England. So I did it. And I lost.

I won my other two NFL bets that day, so I'm still 6-1, but it hurts.

Also that same day I got stung by a last-minute baseball beat. You'd think having a 3-1 8th inning lead, a 3-2 9th inning lead with 2 out and nobody on, and a 4-3 10th inning lead with 2 out, you'd win. Somehow I lost that one.

[kewlJ]

Can you post in the SB thread how many dogs and points came in this week? Total for both weeks? There were a few that 1/2 point line shopping made a difference.

I hedged a game and got +7/12 early and -6, I pushed one and won the other. I didn't hedge for that reason, it just happened to work out.

I posted those numbers yesterday in the SB thread. (but of course the thread was hijacked immediately by Mdog). With the conclusion of week 2 last night it was 20-12. 10-6 both weeks.

Just curious, was the game that you middled with 7.5 points and 6 points, the SF/La Rams game? That game had a rather suspicious ending IMO. But it worked out for me.

[kewlJ]

Axelwolf, I am sure I am doing the same thing you are doing right now, although you are surely doing so at a higher level. I got 21k in bonus money, So I am just trying to play through the rollover requirements at as close to even as I can, eating away as little of that bonus money as possible. Finishing ahead would be even better.

I figured it would take me 3 months to get through the rollover requirements. After 2 weeks of NFL and 3 weeks of college football I am about 25% through and 18 games above even at this point, mostly due to Half Smokes first two weeks underdog with points play and Druffs 6-1 start. I am even a little ahead on my own picks somehow.

But Half smokes first 2 weeks play is now done, so I will be relying on Druffs picks and an array or +3.5, +7.5 underdog picks, especially the NFL home +3.5 plays. I even make the plays that are just +3 or +7 just because I need the volume.

This is my first time doing this at this volume so if I can end up ahead 20 grand, or even 18 grand, for the football season betting and watching many games I would be watching anyway (because I love football), that will be a nice little extra income for me.

[MDawg]

No one believes anything you have to say, so that you keep spouting make believe as if you are in reality doing much more than squatting homeless, is further proof of your mental illness.



AccountInQuestion had the honesty to state that he's taking a mood stabilizer. Why don't you admit to us how schizophrenia and manic depression run in your broken home UNKewlJ?

[MisterV]

Typical Dawg shit from this guy.

Accusing KJ of being schizophrenic and manic depressive.

Fact is, KJ has had his number for years and this dawg feels compelled to discredit KJ, hoping to then gain credibility.

SS, DD.

[AxelWolf]

Can you post in the SB thread how many dogs and points came in this week? Total for both weeks? There were a few that 1/2 point line shopping made a difference.

I hedged a game and got +7/12 early and -6, I pushed one and won the other. I didn't hedge for that reason, it just happened to work out.

I posted those numbers yesterday in the SB thread. (but of course the thread was hijacked immediately by Mdog). With the conclusion of week 2 last night it was 20-12. 10-6 both weeks.

Just curious, was the game that you middled with 7.5 points and 6 points, the SF/La Rams game? That game had a rather suspicious ending IMO. But it worked out for me.

I believe it was the Thursday night game. I bet early and got a +7.5 online, then hedged off at a casino on a -6, I believe it landed on 6. I have so many different accounts going with different bonuses, free bets, boosts, and using various different "+EV" methods it's hard to keep track. I can't even keep up with getting bets in. 20-12 with no pushes? I have no doubt I got a few bad lines(I can't shop much because I'm stuck betting on specific sites) and probably didn't get 20 out of 12. However, I did make some non-method picks and went 11 for 11 the first week. I posted a link.

[AxelWolf]

I have one account where they gave me 1k in free-play bets with a 3x rollover. Using the first 2-week dog system, I ended up $+3,080, $480 of which was won on MMA.

[MDawg]

V, you have demonstrated an extremely poor ability to read people but still - if you can't tell that UNKewlJ is mentally ill, then you really have no read on people to speak of, at all.

[MisterV]

Whatever, Dawg.

He may have some issues but to call him schizophrenic AND bipolar depressed is beyond your ability to diagnose.

Bottom line: I find his posts of value.

Heck, I even enjoy some of your posts here: maybe I should remove the block I have on you at WoV?

[MDawg]

The way he looks at things is not normal. The way he lies and then cannot bring himself to admit it is not normal. The way he makes voluminous posts one day then cries off in despair declaring he will never return (but does return) is not normal.

He's clearly manic at time, clearly depressed at others.

All the askew mood shifting thinking of his, is at a minimum schizoaffective disorder of a bipolar type. We should ask him if diagnoses of mental illness have run in his family, if he's honest he will tell us. Oh but then, he's not. Honest. Is he?

[MisterV]

As you describe it, he may suffer from frequent mood swings, but isn't that part of life?

I was under the impression that the mood swings last longer and are profound with bipolar folks, e.g. in a deep funk for days or weeks?

As for schizophrenia: I see nothing to support it.

He could of course be lying but I'm pretty sure he's not clinically insane.

[Gottlob1]

Some researchers believe schizoaffective disorder is a more severe variant of schizophrenia. Although a person with schizoaffective disorder also has a mood disorder that needs to be evaluated and addressed, the treatments are the same for both conditions.

Schizophrenia Spectrum Disorders

The spectrum of psychotic disorders includes schizophrenia, schizoaffective disorder, delusional disorder, schizotypal personality disorder, schizophreniform disorder, brief psychotic disorder, as well as psychosis associated with substance use or medical conditions.

As far as I know, the most common trait of schizophrenics is the urge to avoid others. The reason that they rarely show up even at the online forums. Nor are they overly opinionated. Most schizophrenics will lie about it, so, why would they put themselves out there, to begin? Moreover, with today's medications, most of them thus blend in nicely with the remainder of us. Hold decent jobs, get married, and all the rest of it. Many completely recover quickly, if treated soon enough, after the first psychotic break.

Yes, under various medications, say, for anxiety, people become highly suggestible, candidates for hypnosis, but it's just not likely what's going on in KJ's case.

[AxelWolf]

Axelwolf, I am sure I am doing the same thing you are doing right now, although you are surely doing so at a higher level. I got 21k in bonus money, So I am just trying to play through the rollover requirements at as close to even as I can, eating away as little of that bonus money as possible. Finishing ahead would be even better.

I figured it would take me 3 months to get through the rollover requirements. After 2 weeks of NFL and 3 weeks of college football I am about 25% through and 18 games above even at this point, mostly due to Half Smokes first two weeks underdog with points play and Druffs 6-1 start. I am even a little ahead on my own picks somehow.

But Half smokes first 2 weeks play is now done, so I will be relying on Druffs picks and an array or +3.5, +7.5 underdog picks, especially the NFL home +3.5 plays. I even make the plays that are just +3 or +7 just because I need the volume.

This is my first time doing this at this volume so if I can end up ahead 20 grand, or even 18 grand, for the football season betting and watching many games I would be watching anyway (because I love football), that will be a nice little extra income for me.

21k in sports bonus money this year so far. I haven't taken the time to add it all up, but I doubt my sports bonus money since the start of the NFL season is more than 15k. I wouldn't want to be stuck with that much time and effort rolling over. I would hazard to guess I have significantly fewer wagering requirements, a higher bonus % and larger betting limits than you. I negotiated better terms based on my slot/vp play, and I brought them a big depositor/bettor.
Additionally, I targeted places where I previously hedged off and my accounts were significantly in the red.

But you certainly got more bonus money, however, I don't envy you because....

Assuming you got the average WRs, the average betting limits, it's going to be hard to find over 250k in value bets. I guess a go big or go home strategy would be a fair strategy, but it doesn't sound like that's what you've been doing. I hope to be done with my wagering one way or another within a short period of time and will re-up at some point.

[kewlJ]

Axelwolf, I am sure I am doing the same thing you are doing right now, although you are surely doing so at a higher level. I got 21k in bonus money, So I am just trying to play through the rollover requirements at as close to even as I can, eating away as little of that bonus money as possible. Finishing ahead would be even better.

I figured it would take me 3 months to get through the rollover requirements. After 2 weeks of NFL and 3 weeks of college football I am about 25% through and 18 games above even at this point, mostly due to Half Smokes first two weeks underdog with points play and Druffs 6-1 start. I am even a little ahead on my own picks somehow.

But Half smokes first 2 weeks play is now done, so I will be relying on Druffs picks and an array or +3.5, +7.5 underdog picks, especially the NFL home +3.5 plays. I even make the plays that are just +3 or +7 just because I need the volume.

This is my first time doing this at this volume so if I can end up ahead 20 grand, or even 18 grand, for the football season betting and watching many games I would be watching anyway (because I love football), that will be a nice little extra income for me.

21k in sports bonus money this year so far. I haven't taken the time to add it all up, but I doubt my sports bonus money since the start of the NFL season is more than 15k. I wouldn't want to be stuck with that much time and effort rolling over. I would hazard to guess I have significantly fewer wagering requirements, a higher bonus % and larger betting limits than you. I negotiated better terms based on my slot/vp play, and I brought them a big depositor/bettor.
Additionally, I targeted places where I previously hedged off and my accounts were significantly in the red.

But you certainly got more bonus money, however, I don't envy you because....

Assuming you got the average WRs, the average betting limits, it's going to be hard to find over 250k in value bets. I guess a go big or go home strategy would be a fair strategy, but it doesn't sound like that's what you've been doing.

I am a newbie at this. I didn't even know you could negotiate better terms. 21k is the total bonuses for multiple accounts. I do have a large volume of wagers to get through, but am 22% there already. I also make all my wagers on Friday evenings @ 5% vig instead of 10%. That should help. I have looked at numbers from past years regarding the +3, +3.5, +7, +7.5 wagers and as long as results are ballpark with the 5% vig I think I should do ok. And I am off to a good start up 18 bets thanks to Half Smokes, first two weeks underdog play and Druff fast start.

It is actually kind of fun at least for the moment. Only negative for me is I play blackjack on weekend nights and then watch football all day Saturday and Sunday. i need mondays just to catch up on some rest. I wish it was past years when most of my blackjack play was during the week.

[AxelWolf]

Axelwolf, I am sure I am doing the same thing you are doing right now, although you are surely doing so at a higher level. I got 21k in bonus money, So I am just trying to play through the rollover requirements at as close to even as I can, eating away as little of that bonus money as possible. Finishing ahead would be even better.

I figured it would take me 3 months to get through the rollover requirements. After 2 weeks of NFL and 3 weeks of college football I am about 25% through and 18 games above even at this point, mostly due to Half Smokes first two weeks underdog with points play and Druffs 6-1 start. I am even a little ahead on my own picks somehow.

But Half smokes first 2 weeks play is now done, so I will be relying on Druffs picks and an array or +3.5, +7.5 underdog picks, especially the NFL home +3.5 plays. I even make the plays that are just +3 or +7 just because I need the volume.

This is my first time doing this at this volume so if I can end up ahead 20 grand, or even 18 grand, for the football season betting and watching many games I would be watching anyway (because I love football), that will be a nice little extra income for me.

21k in sports bonus money this year so far. I haven't taken the time to add it all up, but I doubt my sports bonus money since the start of the NFL season is more than 15k. I wouldn't want to be stuck with that much time and effort rolling over. I would hazard to guess I have significantly fewer wagering requirements, a higher bonus % and larger betting limits than you. I negotiated better terms based on my slot/vp play, and I brought them a big depositor/bettor.
Additionally, I targeted places where I previously hedged off and my accounts were significantly in the red.

But you certainly got more bonus money, however, I don't envy you because....

Assuming you got the average WRs, the average betting limits, it's going to be hard to find over 250k in value bets. I guess a go big or go home strategy would be a fair strategy, but it doesn't sound like that's what you've been doing.

I am a newbie at this. I didn't even know you could negotiate better terms. 21k is the total bonuses for multiple accounts. I do have a large volume of wagers to get through, but am 22% there already. I also make all my wagers on Friday evenings @ 5% vig instead of 10%. That should help. I have looked at numbers from past years regarding the +3, +3.5, +7, +7.5 wagers and as long as results are ballpark with the 5% vig I think I should do ok. And I am off to a good start up 18 bets thanks to Half Smokes, first two weeks underdog play and Druff fast start.

It is actually kind of fun at least for the moment. Only negative for me is I play blackjack on weekend nights and then watch football all day Saturday and Sunday. i need mondays just to catch up on some rest. I wish it was past years when most of my blackjack play was during the week.

Who online has 5% vig, perhaps I missed that? Are you sure those bets count towards wagering requirements?

[kewlJ]

Who online has 5% vig, perhaps I missed that? Are you sure those bets count towards wagering requirements?

YouWager. Yes it counts. I think the 5% vig is 9pm Friday our time to 6am Saturday morning.

With betting NFL on friday nights, you risk a key player being declared out on saturday and the line moving. But I am not really handicapping the games anyway, just betting numbers so that doesn't really matter I guess.

[AxelWolf]

Who online has 5% vig, perhaps I missed that? Are you sure those bets count towards wagering requirements?

YouWager. Yes it counts. I think the 5% vig is 9pm Friday our time to 6am Saturday morning.

With betting NFL on friday nights, you risk a key player being declared out on saturday and the line moving. But I am not really handicapping the games anyway, just betting numbers so that doesn't really matter I guess.

I have an account there, but it's dormant. IIRC their max is a 1k bonus at 50% (yuck)

or 100% max $300 with a 12-15 x roll. FYI be very careful if you're using a "friends" account there. Same bets or offsetting bets could be detected and whenever it comes time to cash out there could be problems.

[Half Smoke]

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quote - AxelWolf:


"so I will be relying on +3.5, +7.5 underdog picks, especially the NFL HOME +3.5 plays. "


in Mike's tracking it was the AWAY underdog, not the home underdog that showed an edge - see link

all underdogs did not show an edge - all away showed a small edge

in my personal tracking away underdogs who got 4 points or less showed a larger edge



looks like Dan is the KING of Nfl cappers -



https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/nfl/


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[Half Smoke]

.

re the above post - the home underdog actually shows a large loss in the tracking - greater than the book's take

too many bettors think that the home dog is a great bet and push the line away from it being a good bet

.