Professional Sportsbetting

[mickeycrimm]

Passing this along from REDietz:

Here's a brilliant idea. Actually READ a book before commenting on it. Here's an idea not quite so brilliant -- thumb through and skim a book before commenting on it. But no -- too much work for a classic "AP" dude.

AxelWolf modus operandi -- read nothing, mention somebody else who read a book, have some pithy comments, and be completely wrong. Honestly, Axel, how do you manage to put your pants on?

What is the point of you posting? You just invent things out of thin air. You're more wrong about the Walters book than MDawg has been about anything. MDawg's tales can't really be stone cold disproven. Your Gambler comments are just flat-out wrong.

If you're going to opine about a book, at least read the fucking thing. Jesus Christ.

The thing about AWolf is he can't really read. Not well anyway. So he half reads and skims and then shoots from the hip, usually getting it wrong. It's laughable how off he is sometimes, and at WOV many laugh at him openly and shake their heads as they realize it's another conversation where AWolf is on a completely different page, Lost in Space.

Redietz had to turn to outrageous name calling because he couldn't out argue axel on the facts. Ditz thinks that ridicule will somehow win the argument for him. But all it does is expose him as a loser.

[AxelWolf]

Passing this along from REDietz:

Here's a brilliant idea. Actually READ a book before commenting on it. Here's an idea not quite so brilliant -- thumb through and skim a book before commenting on it. But no -- too much work for a classic "AP" dude.

AxelWolf modus operandi -- read nothing, mention somebody else who read a book, have some pithy comments, and be completely wrong. Honestly, Axel, how do you manage to put your pants on?

What is the point of you posting? You just invent things out of thin air. You're more wrong about the Walters book than MDawg has been about anything. MDawg's tales can't really be stone cold disproven. Your Gambler comments are just flat-out wrong.

If you're going to opine about a book, at least read the fucking thing. Jesus Christ.

The thing about AWolf is he can't really read. Not well anyway. So he half reads and skims and then shoots from the hip, usually getting it wrong. It's laughable how off he is sometimes, and at WOV many laugh at him openly and shake their heads as they realize it's another conversation where AWolf is on a completely different page, Lost in Space.

Redietz had to turn to outrageous name calling because he couldn't out argue axel on the facts. Ditz thinks that ridicule will somehow win the argument for him. But all it does is expose him as a loser.

My modus operandi regarding the sports discussion has been voicing my opinion that you don't need to have years of experience and learn handicapping in order to make money in sports betting, I know for a fact that you need to know nothing about a particular Sport and you can still profit. I too would like to learn various different ways to make +EV sports bets.
Things such as halfsmoke's improvement on what Mike pointed out.

I'm no guru when it comes to sports betting. Overall I have done well either on my own pics(Heck, I showed proof I went 11 for 11 in the first two weeks, obviously that's meaningless, but of course when used with bonuses, it's certainly nice), or using others and various proven methods. I know what I know and I know what I don't know, I'm completely willing to admit that. I'm always open to learning, and I'm never stubborn or set in my own ways unless I'm 100% confident that's the correct way. I might not be great at sports betting or finding all these middles, soft/stale lines, correlated bets, and knowing the math behind all of that. For the most part, I know when something isn't right, or when something is, I can listen to someone for a few minutes and tell you if they're full of shit or not regarding +EV sports betting. And again, I say for the most part, it's not a perfect science, but that's obvious.

I have asked Redietz some good questions, sometimes tough ones related to his services, that he never responded to, quite a few if I remember correctly.

Red has/had the opportunity to add or teach us something we don't know or don't understand. I'm not sure why and when this all started, but he seems to have gone down a path declaring handicappers are better than/superior to Advantage Players interested in taking advantage of various angles in sports. We get this sense from him that Advantage Players should stay in their own lane as if we have nothing to contribute because we don't have 30 years of betting experience. It's as if he has become an anti-AP filling Mendelson's role.

He chastised Mike for making a parlay betting calculator as if it was a sin to do so. It's mind-boggling, I don't understand why creating any calculation tool is reprehensible.

He's chastised us for using common terms commonly used by other professional sports bettors. Some of those terms even his go-to guy(Billy Walters) uses himself.

Red can waste this time dueling with everyone on the forums and have that be his legacy or he can send out an olive branch and actually contribute some of his knowledge.

No, I haven't read Billy Walters's book. I have listened to and read some of his interviews. The more I read and the more I hear the more I like, this might be one of the rare times that I actually read a gambling book.

[AxelWolf]

Passing this along from REDietz:

Here's a brilliant idea. Actually READ a book before commenting on it. Here's an idea not quite so brilliant -- thumb through and skim a book before commenting on it. But no -- too much work for a classic "AP" dude.

AxelWolf modus operandi -- read nothing, mention somebody else who read a book, have some pithy comments, and be completely wrong. Honestly, Axel, how do you manage to put your pants on?

What is the point of you posting? You just invent things out of thin air. You're more wrong about the Walters book than MDawg has been about anything. MDawg's tales can't really be stone cold disproven. Your Gambler comments are just flat-out wrong.

If you're going to opine about a book, at least read the fucking thing. Jesus Christ.

The thing about AWolf is he can't really read. Not well anyway. So he half reads and skims and then shoots from the hip, usually getting it wrong. It's laughable how off he is sometimes, and at WOV many laugh at him openly and shake their heads as they realize it's another conversation where AWolf is on a completely different page, Lost in Space.

I can read just fine, I choose to skim often because most of the stuff you and some other say is this complete unhelpful bullshit and nonsense.

Again, I will ask, and I will wait for an answer, and I will repeat the question. MDawg, other than Mike getting paid to referee your one small session where you pilfered free money from DarkOz. Give us some examples and legitimate references of people you have actually helped make any money or where you have given valuable information that people could actually use in a real-world situation.

I can feel proud and confident knowing that... I have, I can, and will actually add real monetary value and information to "the community"/ various members of the forums. I've helped people with plays, I have given people plays, I've invested in people, I've given information so people can make money, I've given people jobs, I have connected people with other people so they could make money, I have loaned people money when they needed it the most, and much more. What have you done, what have you added?

Listen, it's fun to argue and spar with you while pointing out that I think you're full of shit. I'm certain the picture you paint, the stories you tell, and the persona you want us to believe this complete bunk. I don't know exactly what you have going on, but I guarantee you it's not what you want us to believe, especially when it comes to all your winning and claims of riches... they are complete BS. I think you're a joke, I take nothing you say seriously. Obviously, I'm an idiot for wasting time and engaging with people like you and EvenBob. But hey, most of us all have stupid shit we like to do, this just happens to be one of mine.

[accountinquestion]

Hard to not take shots at Redietz. He begs for it.

Presumably he is looking for investors at this book club thing. Maybe he just wants recognition. It is clear that either one would be motivation for him. Those gambling naive rubes at the book club might pony up a few contest buyins. But TBH getting investors for small tournament entries isn't a good look.

I played a high-limit game .. (green chip at least.. ) There were 3 serious bettors. They all talked about how hard it was to get money down. Typically if they can find a loser with a history then that is very valuable. They talked of knowing of a bookie named 'bubba' and they'd fly in to pickup/drop off cash around Arkansas. That is not Redietz's world.

Redietz literally ridicules the fact that people get limited for being too sharp. Is he really that naive?

The most telling of it all though? The fact that he seems to look for investors and never a beard.

His reason for using his name? For a movie deal or somesuch? Can you imagine? You can't win enough gambling. You're past retirement age. Yet there you are, trying to get a movie deal. It really just smacks of desperation.

I agree about reading Billy's book but if you confront Redietz about anything he just goes to crickets mode. He is so shameless.

Axel - I don't think Redietz has any knowledge to contribute. He can talk a good game about football. I truly believe he is an expert in that area but i don't know if that expertise ever translated into being a winning cash betting sports bettor. Nah, all contests. Just like how really really good poker players often won't touch tournaments. They play cash games only. Tournaments are a waste of time. Redietz is that tournament guy for life.

[AxelWolf]

Hard to not take shots at Redietz. He begs for it.

Presumably he is looking for investors at this book club thing. Maybe he just wants recognition. It is clear that either one would be motivation for him. Those gambling naive rubes at the book club might pony up a few contest buyins. But TBH getting investors for small tournament entries isn't a good look.

I played a high-limit game .. (green chip at least.. ) There were 3 serious bettors. They all talked about how hard it was to get money down. Typically if they can find a loser with a history then that is very valuable. They talked of knowing of a bookie named 'bubba' and they'd fly in to pickup/drop off cash around Arkansas. That is not Redietz's world.

Redietz literally ridicules the fact that people get limited for being too sharp. Is he really that naive?

The most telling of it all though? The fact that he seems to look for investors and never a beard.

His reason for using his name? For a movie deal or somesuch? Can you imagine? You can't win enough gambling. You're past retirement age. Yet there you are, trying to get a movie deal. It really just smacks of desperation.

I agree about reading Billy's book but if you confront Redietz about anything he just goes to crickets mode. He is so shameless.

Axel - I don't think Redietz has any knowledge to contribute. He can talk a good game about football. I truly believe he is an expert in that area but i don't know if that expertise ever translated into being a winning cash betting sports bettor. Nah, all contests. Just like how really really good poker players often won't touch tournaments. They play cash games only. Tournaments are a waste of time. Redietz is that tournament guy for life.

One of the more interesting things that he has talked about was predictive line movement. I do believe there's some good value in that. I believe I've asked about this. I would love to see some specific numbers relative to the value. How often does this situation come up? What and how do you determine which way the line's going to move? Sure, I see some obvious situations but I also assume that the bookmakers also calculate part of this when they are making the lines. I would also assume that there are lots of other people doing the same thing. How does that affect a smaller sport better? What happens if the line doesn't move your way, that's what I'm just to fade the action do they attempt to lay off? What's the overall percentage on average that one is making for these types of bats?

Billy Walters talks of edges upwards of 20%. I guess I have to get the book to find out which games and which situations were giving them those types of advantages. In that interview just now posted he did mention a few good situations to look for I think it also had to do with the NFL road dogs.

And no, I'm not asking forever for every intimate detail and all the secrets, I'm just talking about in general.

[mickeycrimm]

One of the more interesting things that he has talked about was predictive line movement. I do believe there's some good value in that. I believe I've asked about this. I would love to see some specific numbers relative to the value. How often does this situation come up? What and how do you determine which way the line's going to move? Sure, I see some obvious situations but I also assume that the bookmakers also calculate part of this when they are making the lines. I would also assume that there are lots of other people doing the same thing. How does that affect a smaller sport better? What happens if the line doesn't move your way, that's what I'm just to fade the action do they attempt to lay off? What's the overall percentage on average that one is making for these types of bats?

Billy Walters talks of edges upwards of 20%. I guess I have to get the book to find out which games and which situations were giving them those types of advantages. In that interview just now posted he did mention a few good situations to look for I think it also had to do with the NFL road dogs.

And no, I'm not asking forever for every intimate detail and all the secrets, I'm just talking about in general.

I think those predictive line movements are for sharpsters. My guess is if a wiseguy knows a line should be -6 but the opening line is -8 then they jump on the favorite. And they have a good idea that more sharp money is going to come in on the favorite which will move the line upward. If it goes up to 8 they have a middle opportunity.

On covers.com you can watch line movement all thru the week. There has already been some line movement on next weekend's games.

That Buffalo/Cincinnatti game last night had opened at -2.5. By Friday it was down to -1.5 but by game time had gone back up to -2.5.

here's the link where you can see the opening lines and where the lines are currently at:

https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/odds

[mickeycrimm]

Pretty good Fezzik interview:

[kewlJ]

In watching the NFL games today, I saw commercial with Kurt Warner advertising one of the online sportsbooks, where Warner said that in 44% of games, the winning team was trailing at some point in the 4th quarter. This is an astonishing stat. Of course we would need to know what kind of sample size he is using for this stat. A couple weeks? This season? several seasons? I also need to see and hear the commercial again to be sure I heard it right.....44%.

If this is true and legit over time, some in game wagering , betting teams behind @ + odds should turn +EV, No? You could tweak it further by not betting the teams behind by several scores, that are less likely to comeback and win. This should get the percentage up even higher than 44%.

Edit: I guess complicating this would be that a significant number if games have lead changes in 4th quarter, so both teams would have been trailing at some point in the quarter. Yeah, that would be a major factor, so probably not as good an angle as It sounds. but worth looking in to a bit.

[cyberbabble]

Circles Off (Fezzik interview above) is a good podcast with some interesting guests.

[cyberbabble]

Maybe after he explains what Billy Walters did wrong, redietz could tell us about how Fezzik is doing everything wrong.

[AxelWolf]

Maybe after he explains what Billy Walters did wrong, redietz could tell us about how Fezzik is doing everything wrong.

They must have been calculating their expected value.

[kewlJ]

Ok, let me explain. At the two sports books I have been using for awhile, YouWager and oddsmaker, I have a "host". This isn't a host like Mdawg or some high roller would have. I am sure it is just a rep, assigned to me. And when I am not betting they call and leave messages offering bonuses and rollovers that I don't see offered on their sites. Again, this isn't because of any high roller status, but contrary, because of my status as a losing player for several years.

So I was able to get good bonuses at low rollover, for each of these. Now after completing the withdrawals, and it more obvious what I was doing, I suspect I will not be able to get such a good deal, when I go to repeat. Maybe rollover requirements so steep, it will not be worth the effort. We will see when the time comes.

As for crypto. I don't use it. Just not familiar or comfortable enough, and not even that interested in learning more.

[Don Perignom]

At the two sports books I have been using for awhile, YouWager and oddsmaker, I have a "host".

Nice! Both of those books are on my "considering" list. I've seen complaints that YouWager doesn't like winners, but who does?

[AxelWolf]

Ok, let me explain. At the two sports books I have been using for awhile, YouWager and oddsmaker, I have a "host". This isn't a host like Mdawg or some high roller would have. I am sure it is just a rep, assigned to me. And when I am not betting they call and leave messages offering bonuses and rollovers that I don't see offered on their sites. Again, this isn't because of any high roller status, but contrary, because of my status as a losing player for several years.

So I was able to get good bonuses at low rollover, for each of these. Now after completing the withdrawals, and it more obvious what I was doing, I suspect I will not be able to get such a good deal, when I go to repeat. Maybe rollover requirements so steep, it will not be worth the effort. We will see when the time comes.

As for crypto. I don't use it. Just not familiar or comfortable enough, and not even that interested in learning more.

Yes. I totally understand, I get calls and emails daily and have 'hosts' that take care of me. I have some accounts with a huge negative balance because I ran bad on that particular account while running good on a different site.

However, no matter what I have never been offered super low wagering requirements, and I even put in cover play on slots. So again. I ask whats the wagering requirements they offered? If there's a place that offered you a big bonus and 10x wagering on your deposit(Rare nowadays), I would like to know... I'll know where I should target and I'll know to hold out for a better deal. Sure I have seen situations where someone is a total degenerate player losing many 10's of thousands and they will do whatever it takes to keep those guys. But I don't think you are in that situation.

[MaxPen]

Ok, let me explain. At the two sports books I have been using for awhile, YouWager and oddsmaker, I have a "host". This isn't a host like Mdawg or some high roller would have. I am sure it is just a rep, assigned to me. And when I am not betting they call and leave messages offering bonuses and rollovers that I don't see offered on their sites. Again, this isn't because of any high roller status, but contrary, because of my status as a losing player for several years.

So I was able to get good bonuses at low rollover, for each of these. Now after completing the withdrawals, and it more obvious what I was doing, I suspect I will not be able to get such a good deal, when I go to repeat. Maybe rollover requirements so steep, it will not be worth the effort. We will see when the time comes.

As for crypto. I don't use it. Just not familiar or comfortable enough, and not even that interested in learning more.

Yes. I totally understand, I get calls and emails daily and have 'hosts' that take care of me. I have some accounts with a huge negative balance because I ran bad on that particular account while running good on a different site.

However, no matter what I have never been offered super low wagering requirements, and I even put in cover play on slots. So again. I ask whats the wagering requirements they offered? If there's a place that offered you a big bonus and 10x wagering on your deposit(Rare nowadays), I would like to know... I'll know where I should target and I'll know to hold out for a better deal. Sure I have seen situations where someone is a total degenerate player losing many 10's of thousands and they will do whatever it takes to keep those guys. But I don't think you are in that situation.

You realize you're asking a known fraud, right?

[cyberbabble]

Is there a bit of skepticism creeping in here?

[kewlJ]

I sent the info via PM Axelwolf.

Don P, I attempted to send it to you as well, but you don't accept PM's. If you change that, I will be happy to send it along to you as well.

[smurgerburger]

He is either seriously deranged or he secretly loves the abuse.

[accountinquestion]

He is either seriously deranged or he secretly loves the abuse.

It doesn't have to be one or the other ..

[AxelWolf]

I feel that I've only scratched the surface on offshore +EV bonus betting. I don't want to burn out first-time deposit bonuses, unless I believe I can truly maximize the value, or at least come somewhat close. I don't feel like I can do that with the time and dedication needed to find Value bets. Any and all information regarding the subject is of interest to me.

I'll have to see what KJ says but I find it to be skeptical if he's getting $21k in bonuses with only a 10 times rollover on the deposit. If I recall correctly Mickey did some math on KJ's value and KJ confirmed. But now thinking about it, I believe Mickey Crimm did the math on 100% bonuses with only a 10 times rollover on the initial deposit and not the bonus amount included. I don't know, perhaps somebody could go back and Link me to Mickey's post and I can reread it.