Professional Sportsbetting

[AxelWolf]

Hard to not take shots at Redietz. He begs for it.

Presumably he is looking for investors at this book club thing. Maybe he just wants recognition. It is clear that either one would be motivation for him. Those gambling naive rubes at the book club might pony up a few contest buyins. But TBH getting investors for small tournament entries isn't a good look.

I played a high-limit game .. (green chip at least.. ) There were 3 serious bettors. They all talked about how hard it was to get money down. Typically if they can find a loser with a history then that is very valuable. They talked of knowing of a bookie named 'bubba' and they'd fly in to pickup/drop off cash around Arkansas. That is not Redietz's world.

Redietz literally ridicules the fact that people get limited for being too sharp. Is he really that naive?

The most telling of it all though? The fact that he seems to look for investors and never a beard.

His reason for using his name? For a movie deal or somesuch? Can you imagine? You can't win enough gambling. You're past retirement age. Yet there you are, trying to get a movie deal. It really just smacks of desperation.

I agree about reading Billy's book but if you confront Redietz about anything he just goes to crickets mode. He is so shameless.

Axel - I don't think Redietz has any knowledge to contribute. He can talk a good game about football. I truly believe he is an expert in that area but i don't know if that expertise ever translated into being a winning cash betting sports bettor. Nah, all contests. Just like how really really good poker players often won't touch tournaments. They play cash games only. Tournaments are a waste of time. Redietz is that tournament guy for life.

One of the more interesting things that he has talked about was predictive line movement. I do believe there's some good value in that. I believe I've asked about this. I would love to see some specific numbers relative to the value. How often does this situation come up? What and how do you determine which way the line's going to move? Sure, I see some obvious situations but I also assume that the bookmakers also calculate part of this when they are making the lines. I would also assume that there are lots of other people doing the same thing. How does that affect a smaller sport better? What happens if the line doesn't move your way, that's what I'm just to fade the action do they attempt to lay off? What's the overall percentage on average that one is making for these types of bats?

Billy Walters talks of edges upwards of 20%. I guess I have to get the book to find out which games and which situations were giving them those types of advantages. In that interview just now posted he did mention a few good situations to look for I think it also had to do with the NFL road dogs.

And no, I'm not asking forever for every intimate detail and all the secrets, I'm just talking about in general.

[monet]

Once again you all talk a bunch of bullshit not showing any picks or wins.
I do... (See Smart Money Thread)

All 3 games covered the puck line today, but I bet like a scared little girl.
I also had the Blues ML and Preds Puck Line but decided against it.
Knights are just crushing it, but I wasn't sure how they would do, on the road with, all the Benard Hype.
I did bet 300 more than I originally planned.
And I took a 3-hour nap before wagering so the Avalanche Line moved on me, and I almost stayed off it.


Whatever... You guys are the pros... I'm just here to party, living in Vegas for over 30 years now and honestly can't be stopped.
Even when they beat me, I'm still the best...

Favorites 4 the Win
Nice

I not only post my picks before they go off but I bet them with real money.
Not Theoretical Bullshit.
And I never ask for anything in return.
I do it all for fun and FOR FREE.
UNDERDOG FOR THE WIN...

[Treeshade]

Once again you all talk a bunch of bullshit not showing any picks or wins.
I do... (See Smart Money Thread)

All 3 games covered the puck line today, but I bet like a scared little girl.
I also had the Blues ML and Preds Puck Line but decided against it.
Knights are just crushing it, but I wasn't sure how they would do, on the road with, all the Benard Hype.
I did bet 300 more than I originally planned.
And I took a 3-hour nap before wagering so the Avalanche Line moved on me, and I almost stayed off it.


Whatever... You guys are the pros... I'm just here to party, living in Vegas for over 30 years now and honestly can't be stopped.
Even when they beat me, I'm still the best...

Favorites 4 the Win
Nice

I not only post my picks before they go off but I bet them with real money.
Not Theoretical Bullshit.
And I never ask for anything in return.
I do it all for fun and FOR FREE.
UNDERDOG FOR THE WIN...

Put 50 men and 50 women on a remote island and come back in 150 years. You will find a thriving new civilization.

Put 50 men and 50 Trans MTF on a remote island and come back in 150 years. You will find 100 male skeletons.

But we are supposed to play this stupid game as the fraudJ types impose their sexual fetish on the world.

[mickeycrimm]

Pretty good Fezzik interview:

[kewlJ]

In watching the NFL games today, I saw commercial with Kurt Warner advertising one of the online sportsbooks, where Warner said that in 44% of games, the winning team was trailing at some point in the 4th quarter. This is an astonishing stat. Of course we would need to know what kind of sample size he is using for this stat. A couple weeks? This season? several seasons? I also need to see and hear the commercial again to be sure I heard it right.....44%.

If this is true and legit over time, some in game wagering , betting teams behind @ + odds should turn +EV, No? You could tweak it further by not betting the teams behind by several scores, that are less likely to comeback and win. This should get the percentage up even higher than 44%.

Edit: I guess complicating this would be that a significant number if games have lead changes in 4th quarter, so both teams would have been trailing at some point in the quarter. Yeah, that would be a major factor, so probably not as good an angle as It sounds. but worth looking in to a bit.

[cyberbabble]

Circles Off (Fezzik interview above) is a good podcast with some interesting guests.

[mickeycrimm]

Lunch next week will feature some debunking of the Walters how-to chapters -- what he has right, what he has wrong. Why the chapters' context is faulty, which is why he probably included them. He knew, of course. A little bit of math will be involved, which is fine since folks who taught college stats will be at the lunch. I'll post the location in case you can make it.

Have a good one.

Bump.

So how did the follow-up session go?

What did you debunk in Walter's "how-to" chapters on sports betting?

What did Walters have wrong?

What was faulty in his "how-to?"

Was the press there for the follow up?

[cyberbabble]

Maybe after he explains what Billy Walters did wrong, redietz could tell us about how Fezzik is doing everything wrong.

[AxelWolf]

Maybe after he explains what Billy Walters did wrong, redietz could tell us about how Fezzik is doing everything wrong.

They must have been calculating their expected value.

[mickeycrimm]

One of the more interesting things that he has talked about was predictive line movement. I do believe there's some good value in that. I believe I've asked about this. I would love to see some specific numbers relative to the value. How often does this situation come up? What and how do you determine which way the line's going to move? Sure, I see some obvious situations but I also assume that the bookmakers also calculate part of this when they are making the lines. I would also assume that there are lots of other people doing the same thing. How does that affect a smaller sport better? What happens if the line doesn't move your way, that's what I'm just to fade the action do they attempt to lay off? What's the overall percentage on average that one is making for these types of bats?

Billy Walters talks of edges upwards of 20%. I guess I have to get the book to find out which games and which situations were giving them those types of advantages. In that interview just now posted he did mention a few good situations to look for I think it also had to do with the NFL road dogs.

And no, I'm not asking forever for every intimate detail and all the secrets, I'm just talking about in general.

I think those predictive line movements are for sharpsters. My guess is if a wiseguy knows a line should be -6 but the opening line is -8 then they jump on the favorite. And they have a good idea that more sharp money is going to come in on the favorite which will move the line upward. If it goes up to 8 they have a middle opportunity.

On covers.com you can watch line movement all thru the week. There has already been some line movement on next weekend's games.

That Buffalo/Cincinnatti game last night had opened at -2.5. By Friday it was down to -1.5 but by game time had gone back up to -2.5.

here's the link where you can see the opening lines and where the lines are currently at:

https://www.covers.com/sport/football/nfl/odds

[kewlJ]

So with that large of a deviation KJ's expectated value should be somewhere between 7K and 26K. It's somewhere between slim and none that he doesn't land with the 5% deviation. More than likely he will come in pretty close to 16K.

The angles KJ uses to make his picks are, at best, helpful and, at worst, harmless.

KJ, let us know what your final numbers are.

Final numbers 163-172 -$5960 To collect the bonus of $21,000. Profit $15,040.

I was hoping to do a little better than this. Hoping te closer to .500 with picks, or really hoping a little above. I think I could have done a little better if I had taken a little more time and been more selective with picks, only playing angles with a proven track record.

But in the end, I won $15 grand which is a good little supplemental income doing something I like to do anyway, bet and watch football.

Now all I have to do is collect withdrawals. THAT is where the fun begins right? I am breaking the withdrawal amounts up, hoping that makes them go through more smoothy. I hit my rollover requirements at 2 of the 4 books last week and have already requested and received 2 withdrawals. So hopefully the next 5 or 6 go as smoothly and it will have been a successful endeavor.

Once withdrawals have been complete, I am planning on repeating, for the remainder of football season, spilling over into NBA and hockey. At least one of the sportsbook has a rule where a player isn't eligible for any new bonuses for at least 30 days after a withdrawal, so will have to navigate that.

My overall first impression is this bonus whoring is easy money. Well.....assuming I get paid with no issues.

[AxelWolf]

So with that large of a deviation KJ's expectated value should be somewhere between 7K and 26K. It's somewhere between slim and none that he doesn't land with the 5% deviation. More than likely he will come in pretty close to 16K.

The angles KJ uses to make his picks are, at best, helpful and, at worst, harmless.

KJ, let us know what your final numbers are.

Final numbers 163-172 -$5960 To collect the bonus of $21,000. Profit $15,040.

I was hoping to do a little better than this. Hoping te closer to .500 with picks, or really hoping a little above. I think I could have done a little better if I had taken a little more time and been more selective with picks, only playing angles with a proven track record.

But in the end, I won $15 grand which is a good little supplemental income doing something I like to do anyway, bet and watch football.

Now all I have to do is collect withdrawals. THAT is where the fun begins right? I am breaking the withdrawal amounts up, hoping that makes them go through more smoothy. I hit my rollover requirements at 2 of the 4 books last week and have already requested and received 2 withdrawals. So hopefully the next 5 or 6 go as smoothly and it will have been a successful endeavor.

Once withdrawals have been complete, I am planning on repeating, for the remainder of football season, spilling over into NBA and hockey. At least one of the sportsbook has a rule where a player isn't eligible for any new bonuses for at least 30 days after a withdrawal, so will have to navigate that.

My overall first impression is this bonus whoring is easy money. Well.....assuming I get paid with no issues.

You can list here or PM me a list of places and I can tell you what I believe their tolerance levels are, and what to expect going forward. The major 5 known offshore places shouldn't have an issue with 5k cashouts.

Some places will require you to make a deposit to equal your cashout and only anything above that amount will be eligible for future bonuses. I'm not sure if they tag you for accumulated cashouts, or if that only applies to only your last cash out(I have had both happen). I suggest a large cash out leaving a remaining small balance($50). Then a few small deposits($50) and smaller bets, and then a smaller cash-out.

Remember, the more times you cash out the more times someone looks at your account.

I can't remember if you are using BTC and Coinbase, but I have heard people getting their CoinBase shut down for gambling-related transactions. I have a theory as to why that happens to them, but I can't be certain. I only have Confirmation bias, and a logical guess so far.

[accountinquestion]

I can't remember if you are using BTC and Coinbase, but I have heard people getting their CoinBase shut down for gambling-related transactions. I have a theory as to why that happens to them, but I can't be certain. I only have Confirmation bias, and a logical guess so far.

I would think that doing anything but self-custody with BTC is just asking for something bad to happen. Although self-custody can be just as problematic but ultimately it is all under your control.

These crypto sites tied into the American banking system are going to be real sticklers about gambling. You really should just deposit the money into a wallet first so there is an indirection transfer. I'm not sure that coinbase actually cares but they need to provide a impression that they care to the authorities.

[Don Perignom]

My overall first impression is this bonus whoring is easy money. Well.....assuming I get paid with no issues.

Congrats! I haven't seen many details, but my impression is it may be hard to find reasonably safe sites with low rollover. You seem confident though that you'll be paid.

[kewlJ]

You seem confident though that you'll be paid.

Not at all. For several years being afraid I wouldn't get paid is what has kept me from even trying this bonus game. But a number of people are doing it and have gotten paid so I decided to give it a shot this year. I am using two sportsbooks that I have used for a while and have received withdrawals from, although at a smaller amount than now playing, and two sportsbooks recommended by other that have gotten paid.

So lets say optimistically hopeful rather than confident. Although I have now received withdrawals from 3 of the 4. Not the full amount, just the first of several withdrawals from each. So that is a good sign and start.

[Don Perignom]

Not at all. For several years being afraid I wouldn't get paid is what has kept me from even trying this bonus game. But a number of people are doing it and have gotten paid so I decided to give it a shot this year.

Ah. Yes, that makes sense.

I'm preparing to step into the puddle, but planning to start with the majors. I may not have much (or any?) of an edge, but I'll gain experience dealing with both offshore gambling and crypto which is new to me.

[AxelWolf]

My overall first impression is this bonus whoring is easy money. Well.....assuming I get paid with no issues.

Congrats! I haven't seen many details, but my impression is it may be hard to find reasonably safe sites with low rollover. You seem confident though that you'll be paid.

Define low wagering. It can be as much as 15X B+D.(-EV flipping coins, assuming you always finish wagering requirements)

Usually, you have to stay within -200 to +160 with max bets between $250 and $1,000
(1k is rare)... Which will require 60k in wagering.

If you don't look for value bets the vig will eat your profits substantially. 10x D+B at 100%, a 3k deposit gets you an extra 3k. Assuming you always finish your Wagering requirements the EV will be just under $300.

Looking for value bets is time-consuming, and for us mere mortals (Non-guru handicappers) and it's iffy knowing if it's a legitimate value bet.

So now you'll understand why my ears perk up when someone has something with an autopilot +EV method with solid statistics, math, and data backed up with history.

The difference in profits is huge. Flip coins and Make $300 in EV, or have value bets and make $3,000 in EV.

[AxelWolf]

You seem confident though that you'll be paid.

Not at all. For several years being afraid I wouldn't get paid is what has kept me from even trying this bonus game. But a number of people are doing it and have gotten paid so I decided to give it a shot this year. I am using two sportsbooks that I have used for a while and have received withdrawals from, although at a smaller amount than now playing, and two sportsbooks recommended by other that have gotten paid.

So lets say optimistically hopeful rather than confident. Although I have now received withdrawals from 3 of the 4. Not the full amount, just the first of several withdrawals from each. So that is a good sign and start.

What was your average rollover requirement? IE 10x D+B or 14x D? If you're getting 100% with only 10x D please inform me where as I may have forgotten.

[Don Perignom]

Define low wagering.

This is what I was reacting to:

In KJ's case a 100K wager gets a 21K bonus.

[Don Perignom]

So now you'll understand why my ears perk up when someone has something with an autopilot +EV method with solid statistics, math, and data backed up with history.

Yes, understood.

And on other forums I've seen people complain of being limited to $5 or even $1 bets, midway through the wager requirement.