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Thread: Professional Sportsbetting

  1. #1501
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    It's one of those mathematical oddities. With 8-4 record you would be 4 units up but had you lost two more games you would be even.

    An 82-80 team appears to be two games above .500 but had they lost just one more game they would be .500.
    Looking at things in a relative, opposed to an absolute, way, is how the two-dice, two-envelope, and other thus paradoxes get going. We intuitively end up with abandoning one, or the other, way, and, so, never with the complete resolution of either.

  2. #1502
    Originally Posted by 1Hit1der View Post
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    It's one of those mathematical oddities. With 8-4 record you would be 4 units up but had you lost two more games you would be even.

    An 82-80 team appears to be two games above .500 but had they lost just one more game they would be .500.
    Looking at things in a relative, opposed to an absolute, way, is how the two-dice, two-envelope, and other thus paradoxes get going. We intuitively end up with abandoning one, or the other, way, and, so, never with the complete resolution of either.
    Yeah, a lot of times in comes down to what question are you asking. Which of the below statements are true?

    An 8-4 team is 2 games above .500.

    An 8-4 team would need to lose 4 straight games to be at .500.

    The answer is both statements are true.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  3. #1503
    In his book, Billy Walters has a system for calculating the strength of his plays. It is a "star system" but really just another way of calculating EV. He has a chart called "The Relative Value Of Each Point, NFL." You'll find the chart below. This is the chart that shows the chances of exactly hitting the spread. which we've had on here earlier. His "star system" looks like this. The higher the percentage the more he bets.:

    5.5% = .5 star
    7% = 1 star
    9% = 1.5 stars
    11% = 2 stars
    13% = 2.5 stars
    15% = 3 stars

    So if Walters had a power ratings differential of 2.5 and the line is -4 he has a 1.5 star bet. This is how he calculates it. There are two pertinent numbers between his power ratings differential, 2.5, and the -4 line, the numbers 3 and 4. If his team loses by 3 he wins the bet. If his team loses by 4 he pushes the bet.

    So from the chart he takes the 8% that the 3 is worth and adds half the value of the 4, 1.5% to it. So at 9.5% its a 1.5 star bet.

    Looks like calculating EV to me.
    Attached Images Attached Images  
    Last edited by mickeycrimm; 11-28-2023 at 04:59 PM.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  4. #1504
    After his two master class chapters Walters has a chapter called War Stories. For the 2009 super bowl he had a ratings differential of 2.5 points in favor of Pittsburgh over Arizona. The line was Pittsburgh -6.5. For betting purposes it's huge. He has the numbers 3, 4, 5, and 6 covered. 8% for the 3, 3% for the 4, 3% for the 5, and 5% for the 6. It's 19%, a very big 3 star play.

    He bets 850K on Arizona +4 at halftime and 1.5 million on Arizona +6.5 for the game.

    I'm sure some of you remember this play. With 18 seconds left in the half the score is Pittsburgh 10, Arizona 7. Arizona has the ball on the Pittsburgh 1 yard line ready to score. So Billy has the first half locked up....except....

    Kurt Warner threw an interception to James Harrison in the end zone who went 100 yards to score for Pittsburgh.

    A quote from Billy "As the record-setting one-hundred-yard interception return for a touchdown unfolded on the TV screen in our Las Vegas home, Susan and I could not believe that a 243 pound linebacker was traversing the entire length of the field with my pretty money in his arms."

    Pittsburgh won the game 28-24 so Billy won the game bet.

    Here's a video of that play:


    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  5. #1505
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Good try, though, mickey. Let me know when you find Walters using the term "Expected Value" in the book.
    Let me know when you find Walters using the term "Opinion" in the book.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  6. #1506
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Good try, though, mickey. Let me know when you find Walters using the term "Expected Value" in the book.
    Let me know when you find Walters using the term "Opinion" in the book.
    There might be some handicappers who don't want to use the term EV when it comes to handicapping, but the term EV can absolutely be used properly when talking about Professional Sportsbetting.

    I guess we need a new term for handicappers EEV.

  7. #1507
    So I have deposited money back into 2 of the 4 sportsbooks I used earlier this fall accepting their new bonus offers. BTW, I never let them run dry as redietz claims.

    Total I deposited 10k to get bonus amounts of $7500 with a 9x rollover. (8 at one, 10 at the other)

    Redietz advised me against this, saying they will shut me down and take the money after my first go round at bonus whoring earlier this football season. We will see.
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  8. #1508
    I just thought of something about these betting syndicates using other people's accounts (pay per head) to bet and then sharing the profit. Do they work rollover money in those accounts? It seems to me that might be their modus operandi.
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  9. #1509
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    So I have deposited money back into 2 of the 4 sportsbooks I used earlier this fall accepting their new bonus offers. BTW, I never let them run dry as redietz claims.

    Total I deposited 10k to get bonus amounts of $7500 with a 9x rollover. (8 at one, 10 at the other)

    Redietz advised me against this, saying they will shut me down and take the money after my first go round at bonus whoring earlier this football season. We will see.
    Actually, what I said was that after half a dozen go-rounds, they will begin to shut you down. And if you think you are flying under any radar, you are crazy. Unless, of course, you are using multiple accounts, in which case if they catch you, they have the option of freezing or claiming your funds.

    You never said, in any post I read, that you intended to keep 10% or 20% or more in any accounts, which is what I usually recommend. You presented your withdrawals as total, against which I recommend.

    So, basically, you wound up doing a version of what I recommended, but decided I was "wrong."

    LOL.

    I think "AP" is short for "Addicted 'Perfessional.'"

    I'll be in LV the third week in December. If anyone wants to debate "EV" on camera, email me. If anyone wants to preserve their precious anonymity (gag me with a spoon), we can do audio only.

  10. #1510
    Unabated has a pretty good clinic on football handicapping contests. You'll learn a hell of a lot more from them than you will off small timer, Bob Dietz. Unabated puts the information right on to your computer screen in your house. Unlike Deitz, who insists you travel a thousand miles to get an answer from him that may or may not be accurate.

    https://unabated.com/articles/season...-contests-2023
    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  11. #1511
    Here's Krakomberger on A Numbers Game podcast. At the 37:00 mark Krak talks about all the bonus money to be had in New Jersey when the books first opened up. "When they first started in Jersey it was bombs over Tokyo. It was unbelievable how many people were out there collecting some sick sick bonus money."

    And he said "Look at Randy and the whole crew. They moved to Colorado based on Colorado getting sports betting. That's how juicy the bonuses were....they were giving away five figure bonuses. It was real money, not free bets, five figure bonuses they were giving away."

    Randy is a friend of mine going back to the 90's. Axel is friends with him too. Randy told me two years ago he was going to Colorado to work the sports betting bonuses.

    Krak revealed that the books hired casino hosts to come in and gin up business. And those hosts gave away the farm.

    Krak says it's over with now. But I think the point that redietz doesn't get is it doesn't matter that it's going to end. AP's going in know it's going to end. The objective is to grab as much money as you can before it ends then move on to something else.

    What idiot would say "Well, that's a 200K play but if I pound it they could ban me....so I'm not going to do it?"

    I'll give you a case in point of a play I knew going in wouldn't last more than a few weeks. It was 1999, Harvey's Lake Tahoe. I caught a Harvey's ad in the local newspaper that they would be having a double royal promotion starting June 1 and lasting until August 31. All royals would pay double. The ads were in the paper everyday.

    I knew frickin' well the promo wouldn't last but I went and grabbed as much money as I could. All the hustlers fell out for it. Everyone pounding away all day. I hit two royals on $1 Deuces Deluxe, a 100.32% game.

    It got squashed after 10 days. Everyone of us knew it wouldn't last but we went in and grabbed as much as we could before it got shut down. And yes, there were those that didn't hit any royals but Harvey's got their asses handed to them.

    I cringe every time I see redietz say "IT WON'T LAST!!!"

    37:00 mark

    "More importantly, mickey thought 8-4 was two games over .500. Argued about it. C'mon, man. Nothing can top that for math expertise. If GWAE ever has you on again, you can be sure I'll be calling in with that gem.'Nuff said." REDIETZ

  12. #1512
    I'm not redietz and I don't usually do this, and here's a good reason for kew--who's head I'm in 25/7 366--to cheer for NE.

    The Steelers are a 6 pt. fav tomorrow over the pathetic Patriots. There's zero doubt Pittsburgh won't cover especially at home, and I put $1k on them to do just that. Mac Jones is a losing bust, their team is completely demoralized, and Bellichick has been unmasked in recent years as owing most of his fame to Brady.

  13. #1513
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    I'm not redietz and I don't usually do this, and here's a good reason for kew--who's head I'm in 25/7 366--to cheer for NE.

    The Steelers are a 6 pt. fav tomorrow over the pathetic Patriots. There's zero doubt Pittsburgh won't cover especially at home, and I put $1k on them to do just that. Mac Jones is a losing bust, their team is completely demoralized, and Bellichick has been unmasked in recent years as owing most of his fame to Brady.
    I have to put some rollover in any way so I'm going to bet big on this. It better win, or I'm going to hold you personally responsible.

  14. #1514
    Originally Posted by AxelWolf View Post
    Originally Posted by Rob.Singer View Post
    I'm not redietz and I don't usually do this, and here's a good reason for kew--who's head I'm in 25/7 366--to cheer for NE.

    The Steelers are a 6 pt. fav tomorrow over the pathetic Patriots. There's zero doubt Pittsburgh won't cover especially at home, and I put $1k on them to do just that. Mac Jones is a losing bust, their team is completely demoralized, and Bellichick has been unmasked in recent years as owing most of his fame to Brady.
    I have to put some rollover in any way so I'm going to bet big on this. It better win, or I'm going to hold you personally responsible.

    Axelwolf, I hope you are playing with Rob. This is a horrible game. Pittsburgh's playing a backup quarterback and the Patriots are just bad. Bad game. Somebody has to win I guess, but this isn't a game I would run towards.
    Dan Druff: "there's no question that MDawg has been an obnoxious braggart, and has rubbed a ton of people the wrong way. There's something missing from his stories. Either they're fabricated, grossly exaggerated, or largely incomplete".

  15. #1515
    Originally Posted by mickeycrimm View Post
    Here's Krakomberger on A Numbers Game podcast. At the 37:00 mark Krak talks about all the bonus money to be had in New Jersey when the books first opened up. "When they first started in Jersey it was bombs over Tokyo. It was unbelievable how many people were out there collecting some sick sick bonus money."

    And he said "Look at Randy and the whole crew. They moved to Colorado based on Colorado getting sports betting. That's how juicy the bonuses were....they were giving away five figure bonuses. It was real money, not free bets, five figure bonuses they were giving away."

    Randy is a friend of mine going back to the 90's. Axel is friends with him too. Randy told me two years ago he was going to Colorado to work the sports betting bonuses.

    Krak revealed that the books hired casino hosts to come in and gin up business. And those hosts gave away the farm.

    Krak says it's over with now. But I think the point that redietz doesn't get is it doesn't matter that it's going to end. AP's going in know it's going to end. The objective is to grab as much money as you can before it ends then move on to something else.

    What idiot would say "Well, that's a 200K play but if I pound it they could ban me....so I'm not going to do it?"

    I'll give you a case in point of a play I knew going in wouldn't last more than a few weeks. It was 1999, Harvey's Lake Tahoe. I caught a Harvey's ad in the local newspaper that they would be having a double royal promotion starting June 1 and lasting until August 31. All royals would pay double. The ads were in the paper everyday.

    I knew frickin' well the promo wouldn't last but I went and grabbed as much money as I could. All the hustlers fell out for it. Everyone pounding away all day. I hit two royals on $1 Deuces Deluxe, a 100.32% game.

    It got squashed after 10 days. Everyone of us knew it wouldn't last but we went in and grabbed as much as we could before it got shut down. And yes, there were those that didn't hit any royals but Harvey's got their asses handed to them.

    I cringe every time I see redietz say "IT WON'T LAST!!!"

    37:00 mark


    Randy is not stranger to picking up free play as well..

    Remember tho the free play and bonus APs make nothing lol

  16. #1516
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Originally Posted by kewlJ View Post
    So I have deposited money back into 2 of the 4 sportsbooks I used earlier this fall accepting their new bonus offers. BTW, I never let them run dry as redietz claims.

    Total I deposited 10k to get bonus amounts of $7500 with a 9x rollover. (8 at one, 10 at the other)

    Redietz advised me against this, saying they will shut me down and take the money after my first go round at bonus whoring earlier this football season. We will see.
    Actually, what I said was that after half a dozen go-rounds, they will begin to shut you down. And if you think you are flying under any radar, you are crazy. Unless, of course, you are using multiple accounts, in which case if they catch you, they have the option of freezing or claiming your funds.

    You never said, in any post I read, that you intended to keep 10% or 20% or more in any accounts, which is what I usually recommend. You presented your withdrawals as total, against which I recommend.

    So, basically, you wound up doing a version of what I recommended, but decided I was "wrong."

    LOL.

    I think "AP" is short for "Addicted 'Perfessional.'"

    I'll be in LV the third week in December. If anyone wants to debate "EV" on camera, email me. If anyone wants to preserve their precious anonymity (gag me with a spoon), we can do audio only.
    You can bet online and live across multiple states utilizing kiosk when appropriate. Multiple accounts are not a problem to the people in the know. The problem is moving large sums of money around online. Red is completely out of his element. He really doesn’t have a clue how to even go about it. So he talks down on the play. Standard for guys like him

  17. #1517
    A few years ago there was a play online that was worth 20k per account the first go with a reload worth the Same if you lost enough. The rollover was minimal, and was so Easy to clear. We utilized two completely different casinos live dealers to clear the bonus.

  18. #1518
    Yeah, that's how I want to be remembered -- as the guy with multiple accounts in the know. That's a real skill.

    Glad to know Seed can also read minds vis-a-vis who knows what about moving money. Another useful skill. Everyone needs to know how to move large amounts of money around online. Until somebody reads this and forces Todd to allow access to all accounts or Todd is an accessory. Last I checked, Todd was living in the U.S.

    Seed, you find where I recommended that Italian restaurant in Grantville yet?

    I mean, WTF, anonymous yahoo announces he can move around large sums of money without being detected. Makes you wonder why anyone would post here at all, given that Seed has just given probable cause for a warrant to X-ray everyone posting at VCT.

    Carry on. And oh yeah, prostitution is illegal in Las Vegas. In case anyone didn't know. Another legal tidbit.

    Have a good weekend. if I were pissed off, I'd go report Seed's posts to the IRS, FBI, and Homeland. But I'm a mellow soul. No one has to concern themselves. LOL.

  19. #1519
    I was on a play once running cards in the North east after I found glitch in how certain bets were being rated. Each card cost me around $50 to build. The return was $9800 in free play per month each card. The play was so good I felt a need to do it myself and run everything I had. After playing this machine for 5 days in a row I got a visit from surveillance. He told me in so many words that my efforts were for not. I got up and left the casino down $1500 for my trouble. Fast forward three months and not only did every card get the offer I suspected the play was still working lol. Only after week 5 of pickups did everything come To a halt.

    I eventually found the same play again in Minnesota. This time we took our time, and got three full months before the plug was pulled. The casino never figured it out they just removed the machine to replace it with something new.

  20. #1520
    Originally Posted by redietz View Post
    Yeah, that's how I want to be remembered -- as the guy with multiple accounts in the know. That's a real skill.

    Glad to know Seed can also read minds vis-a-vis who knows what about moving money. Another useful skill. Everyone needs to know how to move large amounts of money around online. Until somebody reads this and forces Todd to allow access to all accounts or Todd is an accessory. Last I checked, Todd was living in the U.S.

    Seed, you find where I recommended that Italian restaurant in Grantville yet?

    I mean, WTF, anonymous yahoo announces he can move around large sums of money without being detected. Makes you wonder why anyone would post here at all, given that Seed has just given probable cause for a warrant to X-ray everyone posting at VCT.

    Carry on. And oh yeah, prostitution is illegal in Las Vegas. In case anyone didn't know. Another legal tidbit.

    Have a good weekend. if I were pissed off, I'd go report Seed's posts to the IRS, FBI, and Homeland. But I'm a mellow soul. No one has to concern themselves. LOL.
    What are you blabbing about lol

    Moving money around meaning if you and a partner are in on a play you better be tight because they could run off with your cash. You also need certified funds to take advantage of the big host offers dumbo. Your bank would shut you down long before anyone if the funds are not seasoned, and legit.

    Your post just reveals how broke you must be. Anyone betting significant sums online understands what I’m saying lol

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