Professional Sportsbetting

[mickeycrimm]

Thats like the easiest math course there is for someone going a hard science route. I promise you. It takes an IQ to figure out how to apply all the stuff given the interesting scenarios but I couldn't tell you the difference in a combination vs permutation but that shit wasn't hard.

It's not hard if you are practiced at it. A simple example is from Texas Holdem. You are initially dealt 2 cards of a 52 card deck. The number of possible combinations is:

52 X 51/2 X 1 = 1,326

So let's break the equation down

52 X 51 = 2,652. There are 1326 duplicate permutations so the 2,652 is divided by 2 X 1 to get the true number of 1326 combinations.

When you are dealt a hand say like Ace of Clubs and King of Diamonds the hand can come in two different orders (permutations). You can catch the Ace first then the King second....or you can catch the King first then the Ace second. Those are the two permutations of the same combination.

[mickeycrimm]

Do you guys ever listen to yourselves? I mean, do you actually read and ponder what you've written?

The above statement by Axelwolf would mean that someone like Billy Walters, with unlimited resources and access to anyone he wanted for 30 years, would somehow not have figured out that basic applications of "AP" play to sports betting is superior to handicapping. And that he must not be too bright because he recruited specialists in each sport instead of "APs."

I said five years ago that the oncoming trend would be "APs" oozing into sports betting as sports betting became ubiquitous state to state and "AP" opportunities began to dry up with more identification tech and requirements. It was obvious that's where things were going, and what the "AP" pitch would be to keep themselves afloat.

For 40 years, handicappers have used every "AP" angle to sports betting that are currently being bragged on by mickey, account, and Axelwolf. Somehow "APs" assume they stumbled upon bonus whoring, arbitrage, and such while the poor dumb bastards handicapping never thought to use them. The arrogance and/or stupidity and/or outright lying is unbelievable.

God almighty. Check out my blogs from five years ago, which detail events going back to the early 80's. You think "stale lines" and "middling" are the purview of modern "APs?" How goddamn stupid are you really?

During football seasons, I lived for three years at the Convention Center Lodge (directly across the strip east of the Stardust) and for three years at the huge Budget Suites (behind the Stardust, west side) precisely because the Stardust was the last to move their lines. I walked down to Circus-Circus (from the Stardust) on football Saturdays to discuss totals moves with the sports book manager because they moved totals based on weather five to ten minutes before the Stardust. This was in the mid 80's.

And you think you invented using "stale" lines and middling? You guys have some bizarre opinions of yourselves. You're comical. To use Axelwolf's analogy, what makes you think you invented the wheel when other people have been riding bicycles for 40 years?

The sheer ignorance is stunning.

C'mon, ditz. AP opportunities are drying up? Hahahahahahha!! That's a good one. Hahahahahha!!

It's. Just. Gotten. Fucking. Better. Sports betting has become a part of AP because with the expansion of sportsbetting came all the free money. THE FREE MONEY, ditz, is the only reason AP's are now exploiting sports betting. The FREE MONEY is the only thing that makes it worthwhile to an AP.

When the FREE MONEY dries up the AP will move on. Who the fuck wants to work a gig where a world class bettor makes only a buck or two per $100 wagered? That shit is for simpletons like you, ditz.

AP's work the biggest edges in the business. Eat your heart out.

PS: Just found out my buddy, Randy McKay, is 30th in the Circa Millions. Should I take credit for it like you do your buddy's success?

[mickeycrimm]

MaxPen, I love you. I really do.

You realize I have a PM from you titled, "You are the only one to call it from the beginning?" Would you like to share it with the audience or shall I?

In any event, how do you draw your conclusions? Is it "AP" insight? You know, basically using "wild guessing" and "expected value" as synonyms.

I do wish my dad were alive. Pretty funny conclusion, though. Either (A) data bases often conflate the addresses, assets, and debts of people with the same name or (B) junior must be living with dad, who is 90-something. Which is more likely? Must be a fine mathematical sixth sense that guides some people to the answer. I think there are a couple of relevant books. I recommend Innumeracy by John Allen Paulos.

Anonymous dudes doing anonymous things while living anonymous lives. VCT, where geniuses congregate.

Monet -- I'll be in town next week. Let me know if you want lunch or something. We'll be at the Golden Nugget Sunday through Wednesday, then the Tuscany for a couple of days.

If I put the EV of a machine play between 115% and 120% it's not a wild guess. I know I conservatively have a minimum of 115%.

[AxelWolf]

Do you guys ever listen to yourselves? I mean, do you actually read and ponder what you've written?

The above statement by Axelwolf would mean that someone like Billy Walters, with unlimited resources and access to anyone he wanted for 30 years, would somehow not have figured out that basic applications of "AP" play to sports betting is superior to handicapping. And that he must not be too bright because he recruited specialists in each sport instead of "APs."

I said five years ago that the oncoming trend would be "APs" oozing into sports betting as sports betting became ubiquitous state to state and "AP" opportunities began to dry up with more identification tech and requirements. It was obvious that's where things were going, and what the "AP" pitch would be to keep themselves afloat.

For 40 years, handicappers have used every "AP" angle to sports betting that are currently being bragged on by mickey, account, and Axelwolf. Somehow "APs" assume they stumbled upon bonus whoring, arbitrage, and such while the poor dumb bastards handicapping never thought to use them. The arrogance and/or stupidity and/or outright lying is unbelievable.

God almighty. Check out my blogs from five years ago, which detail events going back to the early 80's. You think "stale lines" and "middling" are the purview of modern "APs?" How goddamn stupid are you really?

During football seasons, I lived for three years at the Convention Center Lodge (directly across the strip east of the Stardust) and for three years at the huge Budget Suites (behind the Stardust, west side) precisely because the Stardust was the last to move their lines. I walked down to Circus-Circus (from the Stardust) on football Saturdays to discuss totals moves with the sports book manager because they moved totals based on weather five to ten minutes before the Stardust. This was in the mid 80's.

And you think you invented using "stale" lines and middling? You guys have some bizarre opinions of yourselves. You're comical. To use Axelwolf's analogy, what makes you think you invented the wheel when other people have been riding bicycles for 40 years?

The sheer ignorance is stunning.

So you were a Big Time Sports Bettor living at the Budget Suites? I know exactly the place you're talking about. I stayed there around 1991 when I was super broke and couldn't afford the first and last month for an apartment. Great place for drugs and prostitution from what I understand. Oh and don't forget the strippers, I actually dated a stripper who lived there for a short while. They did have some nice hot tubs.

Who the hell here said anything about inventing anything related to sports betting? You have concocted that in your mind, I don't think anybody here said anything remotely close to that.

I wasn't even old enough to bet in the '80s. I was barely old enough to bet in the early 90s. Why are you calling us ignorant related to things you're making up, and then quoting me, no less?

When I started getting into the advantage play, I made the same rounds you did at the same casinos but just for something other than Sports.

The only thing I've ever said related to middling, stale lines, correlated parlays, Half Point parlay cards with stale numbers, bonuses, and various other angles is that you don't need to know a single thing about handicapping or have much knowledge about sports, in general, to beat Sports using various mathematical and statistic driven +EV methods. Why do you take issue with that statement?

I know you got all hot and bothered when I said handicapping isn't needed, tout Services aren't needed and sports investment businesses aren't needed to beat Sports. Any halfway intelligent noob with some dedication can make a living betting Sports with very little Sports knowledge. Does it hurt your feelings that bad thinking of the possibility that one doesn't need 20-plus years of handicapping knowledge and experience in one sport to make a decent living in sports betting?

[AxelWolf]

Do you guys ever listen to yourselves? I mean, do you actually read and ponder what you've written?

The above statement by Axelwolf would mean that someone like Billy Walters, with unlimited resources and access to anyone he wanted for 30 years, would somehow not have figured out that basic applications of "AP" play to sports betting is superior to handicapping. And that he must not be too bright because he recruited specialists in each sport instead of "APs."

I said five years ago that the oncoming trend would be "APs" oozing into sports betting as sports betting became ubiquitous state to state and "AP" opportunities began to dry up with more identification tech and requirements. It was obvious that's where things were going, and what the "AP" pitch would be to keep themselves afloat.

For 40 years, handicappers have used every "AP" angle to sports betting that are currently being bragged on by mickey, account, and Axelwolf. Somehow "APs" assume they stumbled upon bonus whoring, arbitrage, and such while the poor dumb bastards handicapping never thought to use them. The arrogance and/or stupidity and/or outright lying is unbelievable.

God almighty. Check out my blogs from five years ago, which detail events going back to the early 80's. You think "stale lines" and "middling" are the purview of modern "APs?" How goddamn stupid are you really?

During football seasons, I lived for three years at the Convention Center Lodge (directly across the strip east of the Stardust) and for three years at the huge Budget Suites (behind the Stardust, west side) precisely because the Stardust was the last to move their lines. I walked down to Circus-Circus (from the Stardust) on football Saturdays to discuss totals moves with the sports book manager because they moved totals based on weather five to ten minutes before the Stardust. This was in the mid 80's.

And you think you invented using "stale" lines and middling? You guys have some bizarre opinions of yourselves. You're comical. To use Axelwolf's analogy, what makes you think you invented the wheel when other people have been riding bicycles for 40 years?

The sheer ignorance is stunning.

How would you know anything about Advantage Play and what's going on? You're supposedly a college football specialist period.
Let me guess, someone told you? Well, guess what, you were wrong, they are wrong and you always will be wrong about this as long as there are enough casinos around.

I've been hearing the same "Advantage play is drying up" BS since the late 90s. For a well-rounded Advantage Player who isn't a "specialist", they can adapt. When one opportunity dries up, another one opens up, sometimes it's something much better. This is due to several factors...

Casinos are very competitive and they're always looking for new promotions to run, new machines, games, and ways to attract players, this includes sports betting as well. New and sometimes better opportunities pop up once something is gone simply because a dedicated Advantage Player is looking for something new/different to fill that void. Or their bankroll may have grown and now they are simply looking for bigger and better things they can now afford to play.



When someone says something is drying up, sure enough, it comes back with a vengeance. Sure, there are some machines, table games, Slots, and promotions that become extinct but there's always something good to replace them if you know what you're looking for.

Advantage play can be a lot like fashion where it ends up coming back in style, perhaps with a modern twist, but it's basically the same.
And just when you thought something was extinct, it gets resurrected.

I don't know how many times I've heard Advantage players say they were giving it up time to retire it's all over there's nothing to play and 6 to 8 months later they're hitting it bigger and harder than they ever were.



At times there have been a few lulls in specific areas, but there's always something going on and every year it just gets better and better if you're willing to dive into all different areas and aspects of Advantage Play. There's so much going on right now I can't even keep up. I'm not as motivated and hungry as I once was, but my eyes aren't closed to the fact that there are some really good opportunities out there if you're willing to look around put in the time to seek that stuff out.

I'm not ignorant enough to think there's only one way to skin a cat and my old-school thinking is or ever was the best way. I'm self-aware enough to know that I am now a dinosaur compared to a few of these Young Guns out there. But I'm certainly open-minded enough to move forward and learn new things and new ways. You feel free to stick to the one and only thing you know.... Suckering in investors and touting them on how good you are at college football contests. You couldn't pawn off your self-promotion recruitment package on Alan, but no big loss, because there's a sucker born every minute.

[accountinquestion]

Dude's a basement dweller.....RIP

#metoo but I do it in the computer room on the second floor since we have no basement.

I'm the only one around here who has been verified as a basement dweller. Let's keep our facts straight.

[accountinquestion]

MaxPen, I love you. I really do.

You realize I have a PM from you titled, "You are the only one to call it from the beginning?" Would you like to share it with the audience or shall I?

In any event, how do you draw your conclusions? Is it "AP" insight? You know, basically using "wild guessing" and "expected value" as synonyms.

I do wish my dad were alive. Pretty funny conclusion, though. Either (A) data bases often conflate the addresses, assets, and debts of people with the same name or (B) junior must be living with dad, who is 90-something. Which is more likely? Must be a fine mathematical sixth sense that guides some people to the answer. I think there are a couple of relevant books. I recommend Innumeracy by John Allen Paulos.

Anonymous dudes doing anonymous things while living anonymous lives. VCT, where geniuses congregate.

Monet -- I'll be in town next week. Let me know if you want lunch or something. We'll be at the Golden Nugget Sunday through Wednesday, then the Tuscany for a couple of days.

I'd snap bet life roll that maxpen has iq higher than redietz.

[AxelWolf]

There's a new Max original show called, Bookie.
I put it in the category of a Comedy with some drama.
It's about a seasoned bookie who seems to be struggling due to the rise of legalized sports betting.
I'm not saying it's good or terrible, in my opinion, it's just okay, it just is what it is.

I put it on while I'm actually betting on sports and doing work online. It's entertaining enough and I don't feel like I'll miss anything while being distracted with other things.

I'm sure somebody(Red) will come along and tell us how inaccurate it is.

[Dan Druff]

Here's a breakdown of my various 2023 seasons of sportsbetting. Not as good as last year. If you recall, last year I crushed it amazingly hard in NFL, won in MLB, NCAAF, and NHL, and lost in NCAAB and NBA.

This year I did (and am doing) MLB, NBA, NHL, NCAAF, and NFL.

Here are the totals thus far:

MLB: 75-75, -0.67 units
NCAAF: 21-31, -10.63 units
NFL: 20-21, -0.86 units
NBA: 13-12, -0.13 units
NHL: 7-7, +2.30 units

As you can see, the NHL/NBA/NFL/MLB all add up to around breakeven, and none were particularly good or terrible.

NCAAF, however, walloped me for a 10.63 unit loss in just 52 picks, which is horrendous.

Each bet was exactly one unit, so you can see I'm not playing any "unit" games as many handicappers do.

Cliffs: Sportsbetting is hard.

[AxelWolf]

Here's a breakdown of my various 2023 seasons of sportsbetting. Not as good as last year. If you recall, last year I crushed it amazingly hard in NFL, won in MLB, NCAAF, and NHL, and lost in NCAAB and NBA.

This year I did (and am doing) MLB, NBA, NHL, NCAAF, and NFL.

Here are the totals thus far:

MLB: 75-75, -0.67 units
NCAAF: 21-31, -10.63 units
NFL: 20-21, -0.86 units
NBA: 13-12, -0.13 units
NHL: 7-7, +2.30 units

As you can see, the NHL/NBA/NFL/MLB all add up to around breakeven, and none were particularly good or terrible.

NCAAF, however, walloped me for a 10.63 unit loss in just 52 picks, which is horrendous.

Each bet was exactly one unit, so you can see I'm not playing any "unit" games as many handicappers do.

Cliffs: Sportsbetting is hard.

Yes it is.... that's why 99% of them go into touting/charging a fee for services or get investors and charge them a little something something. The other 1% don't want or need any of that they just do it all for themselves.

[mickeycrimm]

Capt. Jack gives a lot of insight in this interview.

Red, you might not want to listen to this one. Your head will explode when Jack talks extensively about how he calculates EV on sports bets.

[redietz]

I'm sure. LOL.

Meanwhile, my co-host of the Billy Walters book club meeting is 49-25 ATS in the BetOnline NFL Mega-Contest, with the Eagles tonight in search of 66.7%. This record is good for just 20th place. That's what happens when 20,000 people are in a contest. But 20th out of 20K isn't too shabby.

I'm very sad you did not make it LV, Mickey. It would have made for an interesting video.

[accountinquestion]

I'm sure. LOL.

Meanwhile, my co-host of the Billy Walters book club meeting is 49-25 ATS in the BetOnline NFL Mega-Contest, with the Eagles tonight in search of 66.7%. This record is good for just 20th place. That's what happens when 20,000 people are in a contest. But 20th out of 20K isn't too shabby.

I'm very sad you did not make it LV, Mickey. It would have made for an interesting video.

All these mother fuckers following you around with a camera and *YOU* still don't have video !?!??!

[kewlJ]

, with the Eagles tonight

speaking of which, how screwed up is it that 3 hours before game time, the status of both starting QB's is up in the air? How do you handicap that?

It is starting to look like a sick Jalan Hurts, with flu like symptoms (for 3 days now) that has him weak will probably start and play, while Geno Smith will probably not play, but who know what changes in the next 3 hours. And who knows what a weakened Jalan Hurts looks like or how long he could go?

[redietz]

I'm sure. LOL.

Meanwhile, my co-host of the Billy Walters book club meeting is 49-25 ATS in the BetOnline NFL Mega-Contest, with the Eagles tonight in search of 66.7%. This record is good for just 20th place. That's what happens when 20,000 people are in a contest. But 20th out of 20K isn't too shabby.

I'm very sad you did not make it LV, Mickey. It would have made for an interesting video.

All these mother fuckers following you around with a camera and *YOU* still don't have video !?!??!

I'm sure there's a point in there somewhere, account, but I'll be damned if I know what it is. You can just email me if you want to join us here with your pithy observations and savvy. We're here until Saturday morning. No phantom South Point stuff.

[accountinquestion]

I'm sure. LOL.

Meanwhile, my co-host of the Billy Walters book club meeting is 49-25 ATS in the BetOnline NFL Mega-Contest, with the Eagles tonight in search of 66.7%. This record is good for just 20th place. That's what happens when 20,000 people are in a contest. But 20th out of 20K isn't too shabby.

I'm very sad you did not make it LV, Mickey. It would have made for an interesting video.

All these mother fuckers following you around with a camera and *YOU* still don't have video !?!??!

I'm sure there's a point in there somewhere, account, but I'll be damned if I know what it is. You can just email me if you want to join us here with your pithy observations and savvy. We're here until Saturday morning. No phantom South Point stuff.

You're constantly talking about some guy filming you or media at your book club... and yet.. nothing to see. I would think some of these keen observations of yours would have found their way into a video by now.

Heck, I'd even agree to not give you a hard time over it if that is the issue.
Line for line no one has posts worth reading as much as you.
Well only true if you take out the one-line wonders on here.

BUT Lol anyone going to see you... come'on man. Be real. Thats almost kewl level stuff.

[mickeycrimm]

I'm sure. LOL.

Meanwhile, my co-host of the Billy Walters book club meeting is 49-25 ATS in the BetOnline NFL Mega-Contest, with the Eagles tonight in search of 66.7%. This record is good for just 20th place. That's what happens when 20,000 people are in a contest. But 20th out of 20K isn't too shabby.

I'm very sad you did not make it LV, Mickey. It would have made for an interesting video.

20th place? That's fantastic. And 20th pays $250 too. Whoopeeee!!!!

Who do you think is worth more money, you or Capt. Jack?

[mickeycrimm]

The guy selling the picks charges $29 a week or $100 a month. He has 974 subscribers so is pulling in about 100K per month. And this is just one small time scammer on Tik Tok.

The big money is in selling the picks to the suckers.

[redietz]

I'm sure. LOL.

Meanwhile, my co-host of the Billy Walters book club meeting is 49-25 ATS in the BetOnline NFL Mega-Contest, with the Eagles tonight in search of 66.7%. This record is good for just 20th place. That's what happens when 20,000 people are in a contest. But 20th out of 20K isn't too shabby.

I'm very sad you did not make it LV, Mickey. It would have made for an interesting video.

20th place? That's fantastic. And 20th pays $250 too. Whoopeeee!!!!

Who do you think is worth more money, you or Capt. Jack?

Let me get this straight. The dude who doesn't even own a home and travels the country playing slot machines but can't file as a professional (I wonder why) has decided that someone playing a contest is somehow beneath him. And he has zero idea how much the person actually wagers on the plays in the contest.

Okay, makes perfect sense to me.

The guy who makes nothing is criticizing others who make more. And he's criticizing the others who make more for not making enough. LOL.

The mickey crimm school of advantage play.

[smurgerburger]

Just to clarify, everyone here looks down on contests.