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Thread: Dan Druff's 2023 MLB picks

  1. #1
    Miami (Luzardo) vs Mets (D. Peterson) - Under 8 -117

    Luzardo and Peterson both looked great in the spring, and there's a wind blowing in at humid Miami.
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  2. #2
    Won the under pick above easily. Today:

    Spring training aftermath edition

    Minnesota -120 (Mahle) at Miami (Cueto) - Johnny Cueto battled arm soreness during spring training, and pitched poorly when he wasn't sitting out. Tyler Mahle also had his struggles, but looked good in his last spring outing. He also doesn't have a sore arm.

    St. Louis (Woodford) +110 vs Atlanta (Morton) - In another pick fading a has-been pitcher, Charlie Morton had a bad end to 2022, saw some control issues in the spring, and is facing Jake Woodford who had a spring ERA of just over 2.00.
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  3. #3
    Won Minnesota, lost St. Louis.

    In the spirit of has-been pitchers to fade, here's another.

    Kenta Maeda had some nice years with the Dodgers and Twins. Then came his Tommy John surgery, and he missed all of 2022. At age 34, he's trying to be relevant again. However, his fastball is averaging under 90 mph, and he walked 10 in 14 spring innings, giving up 8 runs in the process.

    Who is he facing? One Sandy Alcantara, who had a mediocre first start (just like last year), but a great spring (0.68 ERA, 0.75 WHIP).

    The Twins' perfect record ends today.

    Miami (S. Alcantara) -138 vs Minnesota (Maeda)
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  4. #4
    Squeaked by 1-0. CG for Alcantara. Now 3-1 on the season.

    Today:

    St. Louis burned me for my only loss of the season so far (I'm 3-1 in the early goings), but I'm going to try them again.

    Miles Mikolas had a great 2022 season, and then a very nice spring 2023. Somehow that didn't translate to his first regular season start, where he got bombed. But I think he's going to pitch better today. In his first start, he allowed 10 hits, but 5 of them were soft singles, and there were no HR against him. He also didn't walk anyone, and struck out 6 in 3 1/3 innings. It was one of those "bad starts" where the box score looks much worse than he actually pitched.

    Bryce Elder, on the other hand, allowed 8 runs in 11 innings this spring, and failed to make the rotation. He's only pitching because Max Fried is injured.

    The Cards have lost both games at home versus the Braves, but I think they take this day game which starts at 10:35am PDT.

    St. Louis (Mikolas) -128 vs Atlanta (Elder)
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  5. #5
    Lost Cards again.

    Washington (Gore) +106 at Colorado (Urena)
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  6. #6
    Won Washington.

    Today:

    Angels (T. Anderson) -117 vs Toronto (Berrios)

    Berrios looking awful.

    Anderson looking great.
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  7. #7
    Won again.

    Now 5-2.

    Today:

    White Sox (Cease) -128 at Minnesota (Maeda)

    Cease has 18 K through 2 starts.
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  8. #8
    Won again.

    I've decided to fire on Colorado tonight.

    Let me count the ways:

    1) Kyle Freeland has surprised everyone with two excellent starts.

    2) Miles Mikolas has surprised everyone by looking really, really bad in his two starts. He's given up 10 runs and 19 hits in his first 2 starts. The only thing he's done well is avoiding walking people (12 K, 1 BB).

    3) Mikolas has been historically bad at Coors Field.

    4) Rockies tend to be tough at home, even during fail years. Here you're getting a nice price on them.


    Colorado (Freeland) +155 vs St. Louis (Mikolas)
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  9. #9
    Rockies had 6-2 lead and blew it late.

    0-3 now in games involving Cardinals, 6-0 otherwise.

    Let's keep that going.

    Arizona (Jameson) -127 vs Milwaukee (Junk)

    Starting soon.
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  10. #10
    I've been really vascillating on this one, but ok.

    Kansas City (B. Keller) +145 at Texas (Eovaldi)
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  11. #11
    KC easily won, 10-1.

    Okay, another one I'm on the fence with, but since it worked out yesterday with KC, I will do it again.

    Today we have Minnesota with Joe Ryan, arguably the most improved pitcher in the AL. Ryan had a great performance last time out, getting 19 swinging strikes in 6 innings, and a 41% "CSW" (called strikes + whiffs) rate. When you see a pitcher doing that shit, you know he's in the zone. He gave up 4 runs due to a grand slam, but otherwise shut down the Astros.

    The Twins are off to a nice start, leading the AL Central.

    Minnesota (Ryan) +119 at Yankees (Brito)
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  12. #12
    9-0 in first inning. Super easy win.

    Here's a game for tonight.

    Possibly 2 more incoming.

    Baltimore (T. Wells) -118 at White Sox (Clevinger)

    Expect more Clevinger fades before we are done here.
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  13. #13
    Okay, here's your two more.

    In the spirit of the Baltimore pick, these are also fades.

    FADING OLD MAN CHARLIE MORTON:
    Kansas City (Singer) +117 vs Atlanta (Morton)

    FADING TOMMY MILONE WHO HAS A 2020s ERA OF AROUND 6.50:
    Colorado (Gomber) +152 at Seattle (Milone)


    I'm 9-3 so far this season, including some dog wins. I'm 9-0 in games not involving St. Louis.

    Obviously something has gotta give at some point, but I'll keep riding this as long as I can.
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  14. #14
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Okay, here's your two more.

    In the spirit of the Baltimore pick, these are also fades.

    FADING OLD MAN CHARLIE MORTON:
    Kansas City (Singer) +117 vs Atlanta (Morton)

    FADING TOMMY MILONE WHO HAS A 2020s ERA OF AROUND 6.50:
    Colorado (Gomber) +152 at Seattle (Milone)


    I'm 9-3 so far this season, including some dog wins. I'm 9-0 in games not involving St. Louis.

    Obviously something has gotta give at some point, but I'll keep riding this as long as I can.
    How dare you call Chucky Morton old when you're buddy Singer is 30 years older!

  15. #15
    I finally had a losing MLB day, going 1-2 yesterday, only winning Orioles with a comeback. Rockies tried to come back but failed, and KC got blown out.

    So what better to do than make the same mistake again, and once again fade the Braves?

    This time we have a better pitcher going.

    Despite a bad 2022, Kris Bubic had a great spring, and has been excellent in his two starts with KC. He has a 1.64 ERA, a 0.909 WHIP, and a 13/1 K-BB ratio.

    The downside? He's up against Bryce Edler, who has also pitched great in 2023. But I believe KC will come back with a win after yesterday's blowout on their own field.

    Kansas City +122 (Bubic) vs Atlanta (Edler)
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  16. #16
    Lost again.

    Sunday MLB plop bets

    Cleveland -1.5 -135 (Bieber) at Washington (Corbin)
    Cleveland/Washington over 9 -110
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  17. #17
    There are several attractive things about the Rockies today:

    1) Freeland is killing it

    2) Rich Hill is 43 and finally showing his age (7.20 ERA)

    3) Rockies are at home, where they are always tough

    4) Pittsburgh is a failteam


    On the minus side, sharps seem to like the Pirates tonight. I don't agree.

    Colorado (Freeland) -134 vs Pittsburgh (Hill)
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  18. #18
    2-1 yesterday, only losing the Rockies pick I added on. Personally I also lost a live bet I made on the Giants, but those aren't part of my posted record.

    I posted these 2 winning picks on my PFA site but forgot to paste here:
    Houston (Javier) +104 vs Toronto (Gausman)
    Arizona +131 (M. Kelly) at St. Louis (Flaherty)


    Today:

    Betting overs is so ploppy, so let's mix this up with a sharper-looking first 5 bet.

    Look at the stats of Yankee Clarke Schmidt. He has an 8.44 ERA and 1.969 WHIP. He's allowing a lot of hard hit balls, and isn't getting swings-and-misses often. He will be dropped from the rotation when the Yankees are past their injury issues.

    Now look at Jose Suarez of the Angels. After a decent 2022, Suarez is getting torched this year. His ERA is 10.80, to go with a WHIP of 2.280. Even in his not-so-bad spring, he had a 1.73 WHIP. He is also giving up hard hit balls.

    How's the weather in NY? Glad you asked. 12mph wind blowing out.

    Looks like a good bet that 6+ runs will come across in the first 5 innings.

    Angels (J. Suarez) at Yankee (C. Schmidt) - OVER 5 -105 -- FIRST 5 INNINGS
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  19. #19
    Winner in the bottom of the 4th.

    Let's try to keep it going with another ploppy pick.

    Spencer Strider has been the breakout pitcher of the NL, and he's keeping it going in 2023, generating 27 K in just 16 IP. Even in his last "down" outing, he had an excellent 39% CSW (called and swinging strikes), and got 23 swings and misses in just 5 innings!

    He faces a pitcher on the opposite end of the spectrum. Blake Snell is struggling badly, just like the beginning of 2022. He has an ERA near 7, and a WHIP over 2.1. He has a 16/10 K-BB ratio.

    For just a low low price of -132, you too can have the Braves tonight.

    Atlanta (Strider) -132 at San Diego (Snell)
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  20. #20
    8-1 Atlanta, though it wasn't a blowout like this until the end.

    2-0 day.
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