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Thread: Dan Druff's 2023 MLB picks

  1. #21
    Totals so far:

    15-8, +6.34 units
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  2. #22
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post
    Totals so far:

    15-8, +6.34 units
    Oh WoW! I haven't been following. Another fast start for you. Good for you, Dan Druff.

  3. #23
    Backing Joe Ryan again, this time against has-been Kluber.

    Minnesota (J. Ryan) -130 at Boston (Kluber)
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  4. #24
    Won again,. Easy the entire way, as Minnesota got up 3-0 in the 1st, and was up 7-0 very soon after. Final score was 10-4.

    Now 16-8, +7.11 units


    The nice thing here is that most of the 16 wins were very decisive. These weren't cheapies where the pick was bad but I lucked into victory. The vast majority were clear victories nearly the whole way.

    To be fair, some of my 8 losses were also blowouts, but I also had a few close ones in there, where I was leading late and lost it.

    So far I'm feeling very good about my baseball strategy. Notice I made a single under pick to start the season, and have not made any further unders, due to the uncertainty regarding how the new rules affect scoring.

    Also notice that I am now carefully monitoring CSW (called strike / whiff) rate and swinging strike rate for pitchers, in addition to velocity and K/BB ratio, which I was monitoring already in prior years.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  5. #25
    Starting soon:

    Cincinnati (Ashcraft) +133 at Pittsburgh (M. Keller)

    Can you believe Pittsburgh is 13-7, and leads the NL in scoring? It's true.

    But some of this is a mirage, as a lot of their big output games were either in Colorado, or against bad pitchers.

    Graham Ashcraft is not a bad pitcher. He's off to a tremendous start in 2023, with a 1.42 ERA, and throws 95-98 mph with above average movement. He even held his own visiting the tough Braves in Altanta.

    Mitch Keller isn't bad, but he's not great. His velocity isn't as good as Ashcraft's, he has a 25/10 K-BB ratio, and he's averaging about a hit allowed per inning. His CSW also isn't particularly impressive so far.

    This looks like a letdown game for upstart Pittsburgh, and even though the Reds are bad, some of that has been due to poor pitching. They're still averaging well over 4 runs per game.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  6. #26
    Two more picks:

    Yankees (D. German) -126 vs Toronto (Kikuchi)

    Domingo German has a 19/5 K-BB ratio in just 14 innings, and has posted 39% and 43% CSW ratios in 2 of his 3 starts. Not the biggest fan of his in previous years, but he's looking pretty good thus far. He faces Yusei Kikuchi, who is coming off a good start against the Rays, but otherwise hasn't been impressive. He gave up a lot of hard hit balls in his previous two starts, including the one against the weak Royals, where he lucked out and only gave up 1 ER.

    The so-far-underachieving and banged up Yankees are at home and have the much better pitcher going tonight.




    San Francisco (DeSclafani) -110 vs Mets (Lucchesi)

    DeScalfani is a weird pitcher, who seems to be either excellent (2021, 2023) or awful (2022) in a given year. Fortunately it's an odd year, and he's killing it so far, in what appears to be a major bounceback from his disasterous 2022 which ended in injury. He has a 16/0 K-BB ratio, and a 1.42 ERA, to go with a 0.634 WHIP thus far.

    He faces the Mets who are starting a guy off Tommy John surgery, who has never registered an ERA below 4. He last pitched in MLB in 2021.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  7. #27
    Ugly 0-3.

    Today:

    Cleveland (L. Allen) -120 vs Miami (Luzardo)
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  8. #28
    Winner with Cleveland.

    I done fucked up with the Giants game tonight. I meant to bet them earlier at +107, then got busy with something, now it's -111.

    Do I still like it?

    Yes. Not quite the value it once was (I just taxed myself 16%), but I believe it's a winning pick.

    San Francisco (Cobb) -111 vs St. Louis (Montgomery)
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  9. #29
    Locked in a 0-0 tie, the Giants hung four in the 7th, and cruised the rest of the way 4-0. Nice way to bounce back after my 0-3 day, going 2-0 since on low favorites.

    Now 18-11, +5.84 units
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  10. #30
    Let's Ride with Ryan again, in what might or might not end up being a pitchers duel.

    Minnesota -126 (Ryan) vs Yankees (Cortes)
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  11. #31
    Winner again.

    Considered a few different plays today, but talked myself out of all of them... except one.

    This starts in about 20 minutes. This is yet another has-been pitcher fade. For whatever reason, 2023 is full of has-been starters who somehow still have a job in MLB.

    Today's particular has-been makes sense to still have a job, as he channeled his old self in 2022, after years of getting clobbered. Michael Wacha turned back the clock and became his 2018 version last year, pitching very well for the Red Sox.

    The Padres foolishly thought this would last longer than just one fluke year, and signed him for 2023. He has been awful so far, getting hammered in 3 of his 4 starts.

    On the other end of the spectrum, we have Drew Smyly, one of 2019's worst pitchers, who had a nice, under- the-radar season for the Cubs in 2022, and almost had a perfect game last time out against the Dodgers. In his last 18 1/3 innings, Smyly has allowed just 7 hits, and 2 runs, over 3 starts.

    Take the Cubbies at home here.

    Cubs (Smyly) -105 vs San Diego (Wacha)
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  12. #32
    Cubs lost above.

    Been light on the MLB betting this week, but I have two picks for you today.

    Tampa Bay (Faucher) at White Sox (Lynn) - OVER 9 -120

    Anthony Faucher not only messed up the pandemic response, but he's also way too old to be pitching MLB at 82. I can't see how the White Sox don't score 15 runs off him before recording an out.

    Oh wait... that's Fauci. But Faucher is just an opener, and not a very good one at that. It's a bullpen game for Tampa, and Lance Lynn has both lost velocity in 2023 and has not yet had a good outing. Oh... and an 11pmh wind is blowing out, tonight in Chicago.



    Angels (Detmer) +128 at Milwaukee (Burnes)

    This one feels like a bad bet on the surface, with Burnes being so dominant over the last few years, and Detmer being a mediocrity at best. However, Burnes isn't quite 100% from his pec strain, and even before that, he wasn't pitching like himself. Detmers looked good in his last outing, despite allowing 7 hits in 5 2/3 innings, as he generated 22 swinging strikes out of 90 pitches, and had a 37% CSW. A pick on the Brewers looks like a trap here.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  13. #33
    Split 'em, winning the Tampa over, losing Angels.

    Today:

    Guys, you aren't going to get a chance again to bet an under 19.5 in MLB (except live), so you really should do this today.

    This is what's known as a market overcorrection.

    San Francisco (Cobb) vs San Diego (Darvish) - Mexico City - Under 19.5 -105
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  14. #34
    Originally Posted by Dan Druff View Post

    Today:

    Guys, you aren't going to get a chance again to bet an under 19.5 in MLB (except live), so you really should do this today.

    This is what's known as a market overcorrection.

    San Francisco (Cobb) vs San Diego (Darvish) - Mexico City - Under 19.5 -105


    great call - they were almost giving away money - when I saw the o/u line early in the a.m. it was 20.5 - totally unheard of - the previous night's score was 16-11 - that's what caused the overcorrection


    Yu Darvish ERA 3.00 and Alex Cobb ERA 1.91 were the pitchers


    .
    please don't feed the trolls

  15. #35
    Thanks. Easily won that under, which had only 10 runs score.

    Today:

    Kluber going today, and the wind is blowing out of Fenway at 11mph. 'Nuff said.

    Toronto (Berrios) at Boston (Kluber) - Over 5.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS +105
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  16. #36
    3-2 after 1.5 innings. I was pretty much counting my money, especially given that both teams have had runners in scoring position every inning. Nope! Can't get that damn 6th run across.

    Indeed, after a million runners left on base, it was still 3-2 after 5 innings. The over 10 for the game easily covered, too. Ugh.

    Today:

    There's no bigger "sleeper" disappointment in 2023 than Hayden Wesneski. Many expected him to be a Strider-like breakout candidate, and instead he's mostly been a fail. While he pitched well against the Padres (though lasted only 5 innings), he simply isn't missing bats, holding a 15/8 K-BB ratio in 22 1/3 innings, and a 5.24/1.522 ERA/WHIP.

    Trevor Williams has been exactly what the Nationals were expecting. He's giving them 5-6 innings, allowing around 3 runs each time. No strong outings yet, no terrible outings yet.

    This game, taking place in DC, should be more of a toss-up. The dog line is good value here.

    Washington (T. Williams) +124 vs Cubs (Wesneski)
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  17. #37
    Record on 4/24: Now 18-11, +5.84 units

    Minnesota -126 (Ryan) vs Yankees (Cortes) - WON
    Cubs (Smyly) -105 vs San Diego (Wacha) - LOST
    Tampa Bay (Faucher) at White Sox (Lynn) - OVER 9 -120 - WON
    Angels (Detmer) +128 at Milwaukee (Burnes) - LOST
    San Francisco (Cobb) vs San Diego (Darvish) - Mexico City - Under 19.5 -105 - WON
    Toronto (Berrios) at Boston (Kluber) - Over 5.5 FIRST 5 INNINGS +105 - LOST
    Washington (T. Williams) +124 vs Cubs (Wesneski) - WON

    Since April 25: 4-3, +0.81 units

    Overall: 22-14, +6.65 units
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  18. #38
    Dare I dip my toe back into the MLB under water?

    Very nervous, but here goes.

    Washington (Irvin) vs Cubs (Stroman) - Under 8 -115
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  19. #39
    Pretty easy victory, 2-1 Nats final. A few moments where scoring chances were blown on both sides (including top of the 9th), but ended up winning by a whopping 5 runs.

    Now 23-14, +7.52 units


    Very solid start to the MLB season for me. Most notably, aside from that outlier 0-3 day, I've had no losing streaks, and most of my winning picks have done so pretty easily, whereas a number of my 14 losses were close.

    Feeling very good so far.
    Check out my poker forum, and weekly internet radio show at http://pokerfraudalert.com

  20. #40
    .


    The Tampa Bay Rays are currently 26-6 - the best 32 game start since the 1984 Detroit Tigers

    they have:

    scored the most runs in the majors
    have the highest batting average
    the best on base slugging %
    and the most home runs

    they have allowed the fewest runs and homers
    and have the lowest opponents average and O.P.S.

    wow


    https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/04/s...-bay-rays.html

    .
    please don't feed the trolls

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