Dan Druff's 2023 MLB picks

[Dan Druff]

Seattle (Woo) +118 at Angels (Sandoval)

[Dan Druff]

Won Seattle.

Today:

Boston (Paxton) vs Colorado (Seabold) - Under 9 -105


You wanna see something weird? The line right now on BOL is under 9.5 -137. Now only is that a shitty line, it's bizarre they won't move it down to 9.

Not only is that a crappy line, but it really seems they want to discourage under betting here.

[Dan Druff]

Managed to win the under on the Rockies despite 3 runs coming home in the 10th.

Today I am fading Jameson Taillon, something I should've been doing for a long time, but haven't been.

His ERA is over 7, through 10 (!!) starts. He just hasn't looked right, possibly due to after-effects from his injury earlier this year. Whatever it is, he's been a disaster for the Cubs. He has had just 2 good starts -- one back in April against the Dodgers, and one on June 2 against the Padres.

Luis Ortiz hasn't been great for the Pirates, mostly struggling with walking a lot of people (15/16 K-BB ratio). However, he's been mostly good at stranding the many baserunners he's allowed.

I am not making this a first-5 pick because the Pirates have a lockdown closer in David Bednar, and a pretty good setup guy in Colin Holderman. The Cubs bullpen situation is a mess. Aside from being on the road, the Pirates generally have the bullpen advantage here.

Pittsburgh (L. Ortiz) +115 at Cubs (Taillon)

[Dan Druff]

Lost the Pirates above.

Last minute:

St. Louis (Mikolas) -117 at NY Mets (Megill)

[Dan Druff]

Lost Cards above.

Today:

San Diego (Snell) -114 vs Tampa (Eflin)

[Dan Druff]

Won this San Diego pick above.

Today:

I like the under on the Braves game today.

Spencer Strider suddenly looks human, giving up 8 runs two outings ago, and 5 runs last outing. However, I don't think he's lost it -- at least not yet. He's still generating a lot of swings and misses (a big metric these days), and his velocity has not decreased.

Ranger Suarez was awful after coming back from injury -- so bad that I released him from my fantasy team despite having him for $1. Of course, since I released him, that meant he was going to go on a run, and indeed he has. He's back to 2021 form, and has been excellent in his past 4 outings.

Between what I believe will be a bounceback performance for Strider, and Suarez's unexpected return to effectiveness, I think this one goes under.

Philadelphia (Suarez) vs Atlanta (Strider) - Under 8.5 +100

[Dan Druff]

Won yesterday.

Today:

Yankees (J. Brito) +138 vs Seattle (L. Castillo)

[monet]

Won yesterday.

Today:

Yankees (J. Brito) +138 vs Seattle (L. Castillo)

Now all you got to do is add in the Giants and Indians.

[Half Smoke]

.

Dan - I'm following every day - looks like you're doing well - can you please post your record and r.o.i. - thanks - then I'll keep track and won't ask again

.

[monet]

.

Dan - I'm following every day - looks like you're doing well - can you please post your record and r.o.i. - thanks - then I'll keep track and won't ask again

.

It's all recorded and only 5 pages.
Go back and do the leg work yourself you lazy prick.

[Dan Druff]

Freeland pitched well in last 3 starts in Denver.

In general, dog bets on the Rockies at home aren't that bad.

Colorado (Freeland) +138 vs Angels (Sandoval)

[Dan Druff]

Won the Colorado pick with 4 runs in the 8th. Considered picking them the next day, passed on it, and they fell behind 23-0 in the 4th. Good thing I avoided that embarrassment I'd never live down.

Today:

The Padres have an ultra-fail reliever who couldn't even beat minor league hitters, and he's opening today's game. The Pirates have Rich Hill who, after defying the calendar for many years, seems to finally be done at age 43. He has coughed up 4-6 runs in 4 of his past 6 starts, including the last two.

This is a first-5 over.

San Diego (Knehr) vs Pirates (Hill) - Over 5.5 -115 - FIRST 5 INNINGS

[Dan Druff]

One more pick for a bit later.

The Injuns and the Royals are two of the four worst offensive teams in baseball (the other being the Tigers and A's). They face each other tonight.

Admittedly Brady Singer has bad numbers this year, but he's actually had some solid games in there. Gavin Williams was killing it in the minors, but had a not-so-good start against Oakland in his MLB debut. Now that he's past the opening jitters and facing another bad offense, I predict he will look a lot better.

We don't need a 2-1 game to win this one. Just fewer than 9, in a game featuring two very weak offenses which are both averaging fewer than 4 runs per game.

Cleveland (G. Williams) at Kansas City (Singer) - Under 9 -105

[Don Perignom]

Cleveland (G. Williams) at Kansas City (Singer) - Under 9 -105

Thanks Dan! I rarely see the posts before start time, but I caught this one and jumped all over it.

[Dan Druff]

Easily won both of those totals picks, giving me a win streak of 6 in a row. My last losing pick was on June 16.

[Dan Druff]

Record last posted 5/8/23: 25-18, +5.19 units

What followed was a dark period for the next 3 weeks...


5/9:
New York (D. Peterson) at Cincinnati (Weaver) - Over 5.5 -125 - W +0.8u

5/10:
Colorado (Senzatela) +124 at Pittsburgh (Hill) - W +1.24u
Cincinnati (Greene) +134 vs Mets (Verlander) - L -1.00u
Philadelphia (Wheeler) vs Toronto (Gausman) - Under 8.5 -120 - W +0.83u
St. Louis (Montgomery) at Cubs (Steele) - Under 7.5 -125 - L -1.00u
Total 5/10: 2-2, +0.07u

5/11:
Yankees (German) -116 vs Tampa (Rasmussen) - L -1.00u
Texas (Eovaldi) vs Oakland (Medina) - Texas over 2.5 run first 5 -130 - L -1.00u
Total 5/11: 0-2, -2.00u

5/13:
Cleveland (Quantrill) vs Angels (Detmer) - Under 8 +100 - L -1.00u
Baltimore (T. Wells) vs Pittsburgh (R. Contreras) - Under 8.5 -113 - W +0.88u
Colorado (Feltner) +125 vs Philadelphia (R. Suarez) - FIRST 5 - L -1.00u
Total 5/13: 1-2, -1.12u

5/15:
Baltimore (Rodrigues) +104 vs Angels (Ohtani) - L -1.00u
Seattle (Kirby) -117 at Boston (Houck) - W +0.85u
Total 5/15: 1-1, -0.15u

5/16:
Toronto (Gausman) vs Yankees (German) - Under 8 -105 - L -1.00u
Texas (Dunning) -105 vs Atlanta (Shuster) - W +0.95u
Total 5/16: 1-1, -0.05u

5/19: Cleveland (Quantrill) +128 at Mets (Carrasco) - L -1.00u

5/20: Seattle (Gilbert) +116 at Atlanta (Chavez) - W +1.16u

5/21: Miami (Luzardo) +113 at San Francisco (Wood) - L -1.00u

5/22: Detroit (Lorenzen) at Kansas City (Singer) - Under 8.5 -105 - L -1.00u

5/23:
Cleveland (L. Allen) -123 vs White Sox (Cease) - L -1.00u
Cubs (Smyly) -110 vs Mets (Megill) - W +0.91u
Total 5/23: 1-1, -0.09u

5/24: Cincinnati (Lively) +142 vs St. Louis (Matz) - W +1.42u

5/26:
St. Louis (M. Liberatore) +102 at Cleveland (Bieber) - L -1.00u
Colorado (Seabold) vs Mets (Scherzer) - Over 11.5 +100 - L -1.00u
Minnesota (Varland) +130 vs Toronto (Gausman) - L -1.00u
Total 5/26: 0-3, -3.00u

5/27: Arizona (Davies) -102 vs Boston (Whitlock) - L -1.00u

TOTAL 5/9-5/27: 9-16, -6.96 units


TOTAL THROUGH 5/28: 34-34, -1.77 units

However, some better times would follow...

[Dan Druff]

Record from 5/28-present

5/30: Angels (Ty. Anderson) at White Sox (Gioito) - OVER 9.5 -104 - W +0.96u

5/31: Pittsburgh (M. Keller) +108 at San Francisco (Wood) - W +1.08u

6/1: Angels (Detmer) +130 at Houston (R. Blanco) - L -1.00u

6/2: Arizona (M. Kelly) +106 vs Atlanta (Morton) - W +1.06u

6/3:
Seattle (Woo) +132 at Texas (Heaney) - L -1.00u
Minnesota (Gray) -134 vs Cleveland (L. allen) - L -1.00u
Total: 0-2, -2.00u

6/4: Yankees (German) at Dodgers (B. Miller) - Under 8.5 -104 - W +0.96u

6/5: San Diego (Snell) vs Chicago (Hendricks) - Over 9 -115 - L -1.00u

6/6:
Detroit (Alexander) +160 at Philadelphia (T. Walker) - L -1.00u
Boston (Paxton) -103 at Cleveland (Bieber) - W +0.97u
Total: 1-1, -0.03u

6/10: Seattle (Woo) +118 at Angels (Sandoval) - W +1.18u

6/12: Boston (Paxton) vs Colorado (Seabold) - Under 9 -105 - W +0.95u

6/13: Pittsburgh (L. Ortiz) +115 at Cubs (Taillon) - L -1.00u

6/16: St. Louis (Mikolas) -117 at NY Mets (Megill) - L -1.00u

6/17: San Diego (Snell) -114 vs Tampa (Eflin) - W +0.88u

6/20: Philadelphia (Suarez) vs Atlanta (Strider) - Under 8.5 +100 - W +1.00u

6/21: Yankees (J. Brito) +138 vs Seattle (L. Castillo) - W +1.38u

6/23: Colorado (Freeland) +138 vs Angels (Sandoval) - W +1.38u

6/27:
San Diego (Knehr) vs Pirates (Hill) - Over 5.5 -115 - FIRST 5 - W +0.87u
Cleveland (G. Williams) at Kansas City (Singer) - Under 9 -105 - W +0.95u
Total: 2-0, +1.82u

TOTAL 5/28-6/27: 13-7, +6.62 units


GRAND TOTAL THRU 6/27: 47-41, +4.85 units

Not a spectacular record, but at least I'm winning.

Note that each game is exactly 1 unit bet, no matter what, for the purposes of this record keeping.

[Ozzy]

Record from 5/28-present

5/30: Angels (Ty. Anderson) at White Sox (Gioito) - OVER 9.5 -104 - W +0.96u

5/31: Pittsburgh (M. Keller) +108 at San Francisco (Wood) - W +1.08u

6/1: Angels (Detmer) +130 at Houston (R. Blanco) - L -1.00u

6/2: Arizona (M. Kelly) +106 vs Atlanta (Morton) - W +1.06u

6/3:
Seattle (Woo) +132 at Texas (Heaney) - L -1.00u
Minnesota (Gray) -134 vs Cleveland (L. allen) - L -1.00u
Total: 0-2, -2.00u

6/4: Yankees (German) at Dodgers (B. Miller) - Under 8.5 -104 - W +0.96u

6/5: San Diego (Snell) vs Chicago (Hendricks) - Over 9 -115 - L -1.00u

6/6:
Detroit (Alexander) +160 at Philadelphia (T. Walker) - L -1.00u
Boston (Paxton) -103 at Cleveland (Bieber) - W +0.97u
Total: 1-1, -0.03u

6/10: Seattle (Woo) +118 at Angels (Sandoval) - W +1.18u

6/12: Boston (Paxton) vs Colorado (Seabold) - Under 9 -105 - W +0.95u

6/13: Pittsburgh (L. Ortiz) +115 at Cubs (Taillon) - L -1.00u

6/16: St. Louis (Mikolas) -117 at NY Mets (Megill) - L -1.00u

6/17: San Diego (Snell) -114 vs Tampa (Eflin) - W +0.88u

6/20: Philadelphia (Suarez) vs Atlanta (Strider) - Under 8.5 +100 - W +1.00u

6/21: Yankees (J. Brito) +138 vs Seattle (L. Castillo) - W +1.38u

6/23: Colorado (Freeland) +138 vs Angels (Sandoval) - W +1.38u

6/27:
San Diego (Knehr) vs Pirates (Hill) - Over 5.5 -115 - FIRST 5 - W +0.87u
Cleveland (G. Williams) at Kansas City (Singer) - Under 9 -105 - W +0.95u
Total: 2-0, +1.82u

TOTAL 5/28-6/27: 13-7, +6.62 units


GRAND TOTAL THRU 6/27: 47-41, +4.85 units

Not a spectacular record, but at least I'm winning.

Note that each game is exactly 1 unit bet, no matter what, for the purposes of this record keeping.

Great picks Druff. The only one I'm going against is Cle vs KC. Over all the way, you're buddy SINGER can't pitch his way out of a wet paper bag. Plus he's old as hell(74) WAY OVER THE HILL !! Betting the farm on that one!!

[Dan Druff]

You're betting on a completed game?

[Half Smoke]

You're betting on a completed game?

for a great many sports bettors - not including you - that would be the only way they could possibly win