Dan Druff's 2023 MLB picks

[Ozzy]

You're betting on a completed game?

Haha! I noticed too late after the fact, to correct.

[Dan Druff]

I am disappointed in myself for sleeping through the return of the pfatso -- Brandon Pfaadt.

He's a top D-backs prospect who just can't win in MLB. This was his second stint in the Majors, and it went about as well as expected. You could have gotten a +107 on the Rays, of all teams. Can you imagine? Easy 6-1 victory for the Rays, of course.

Here's a pick starting in 15 minutes -- a battle of two pitchers with inconsistent careers, but both of whom have done well recently.

Light wind blowing out of Wrigley.

Cubs (K. Hendricks) -101 vs Philadelphia (T. Walker)

[Dan Druff]

Lost the Cubs, who blew two scoring opportunities mid game, and fell 3-1.

Okay, I missed fading the Pfaatso, but I am going to fade another struggling pitcher today -- Mike Soroka.

Soroka once had a great career ahead of him. Today, he's a big question mark. An injury shut him down for almost 3 years, and he returned to the Braves rotation earlier this season. He was horrible, and was demoted back to the minors.

After 19 good innings in the minors, he's BACK to face the Marlins in Atlanta.

The Marlins have Bryan Hoeing today, a converted reliever who has been fairly good in 2023. In fact, he threw 5 hitless innings in his last outing, and held the Blue Jays scoreless for 4 innings in his previous outing.

The Braves are averaging 5.5 runs per game, and have an explosive offense. I wouldn't be surprised if they come back to win the game, but I see Hoeing outpitching Soroka, who has not yet shown he is Major League ready since his injury, so I'm going to first-5 it. You still get a nice price -- only 7 points off the full game price.

Miami (Hoeing) +155 at Atlanta (Soroka) - FIRST 5 INNINGS

[Dan Druff]

Texas (Jon Gray) vs Houston (R. Blanco) - Under 8.5 -105

Jon Gray appears to be BACK, after getting clobbered by Toronto on June 18th. He had a blister, so that probably explained it, as that start followed a rare complete game against St. Louis. He went out and threw a nice start against the Yankees last time, showing that he's feeling better.

Roniel Blanco has been mediocre this year, and was converted on June 1 to be a starter. He did pitch fairly well against the Dodgers, allowing just 2 hits in 6 innings, though both were HR, so that hurt his line. Blanco did manage 13 strikes on his slider alone in that start, which was encouraging.

I was deciding whether to go with a full game u8.5 -105 or a 5-inning u4.5 +100. I decided to go full game, as Blanco is a bit of a wildcard, and I'd prefer to have the ability to win this if he gets hit hard and Gray pitches well. The 4.5 +100 first 5 isn't a bad pick, though.

[Dan Druff]

Split 'em. Barely pulled off the under, Miami got blown out.

Starting shortly:

Cleveland (Bibee) +116 at Cubs (Stroman)

Betting the weak-hitting Injuns against the Cubs against Stroman, for a measly +116 in Chicago? Am I crazy?

Maybe.

Stroman got bombed last start because of a blister -- one which apparently isn't all better.

[Dan Druff]

Also:

Seattle (Kirby) +100 vs Tampa (Glasnow)

[Dan Druff]

Won both of them yesterday, easily.

THRU 6/27: 47-41, +4.85 units

6/29: Cubs (K. Hendricks) -101 vs Philadelphia (T. Walker) - L -1.00u

6/30:
Miami (Hoeing) +155 at Atlanta (Soroka) - FIRST 5 INNINGS - L -1.00u
Texas (Jon Gray) vs Houston (R. Blanco) - Under 8.5 -105 - W +0.95u
Total: 1-1, -0.05u

7/1:
Cleveland (Bibee) +116 at Cubs (Stroman) - W +1.16u
Seattle (Kirby) +100 vs Tampa (Glasnow) - W +1.00u

TOTAL SINCE 6/27: 3-2, +1.11u

GRAND TOTAL: 50-43, +5.96 units

[Dan Druff]

Sunday afternoon picks

Mets (Peterson) -126 vs San Francisco (Stripling)
Angels (Detmers) -116 vs Arizona (Gallen)

[Ozzy]

A legendary pitching matchup would be Pfaatso vs Old man Singer.

[Dan Druff]

Won both, though the Mets came close to blowing it late. Now 11-2 since June 16.


Here's an under pick for tonight, starting in about half an hour.

Joe Ryan pitched a masterful 3-hitter CG against Boston, then got bombed against the Braves. First off, it's not shameful to get bombed by the Braves and their relentless offense, but it's also not uncommon to pitch poorly after a CG nowadays. It's not 1988 anymore, and pitchers simply aren't used to going that long. Ryan is now well rested (he only went 3 frames against Atlanta), and he's facing an offense which is the opposite of that of the Braves -- a Royals team which is the 2nd-worst in baseball (only ahead of the A's), and that's only after somehow battering the Dodgers recently.

His opponent, Austin Cox, is a reliever who won't go long, but has pitched well, aside from a poor outing last time against the Injuns.

Expect a low scoring affair from these teams with anemic offenses.

Kansas City (Cox) at Minnesota (J. Ryan) - Under 8.5 +100

[Dan Druff]

Lost the under in final 2 innings.

Today:

Yankees (Vasquez) -110 vs Baltimore (Kremer)

Washington (J. Gray) -102 vs Cincinnati (Ashcraft)

Atlanta (Soroka) at Cleveland (Quantrill) - Over 6 -105 First 5 innings

[monet]

Lost the under in final 2 innings.

Today:

Yankees (Vasquez) -110 vs Baltimore (Kremer)

Washington (J. Gray) -102 vs Cincinnati (Ashcraft)

Atlanta (Soroka) at Cleveland (Quantrill) - Over 6 -105 First 5 innings

Ouchie!

[Dan Druff]

Let's shake off the ugly 0-3 yesterday, of which 2 were actually decent picks which just didn't work out. (The Washington one probably wasn't a good pick.)

You gotta bet on a pitcher named Kutter, right?

He also has a 55/12 K-BB ratio, and has been a lot better than his 3.92 ERA would indicate.

Nate Eovaldi will have regression tonight after his 7 shutout innings last time. Book it.

Boston (Crawford) +130 vs Texas (Eovaldi)

Do not take the shitty +116 BOL line

[Dan Druff]

Lost the under in final 2 innings.

Today:

Yankees (Vasquez) -110 vs Baltimore (Kremer)

Washington (J. Gray) -102 vs Cincinnati (Ashcraft)

Atlanta (Soroka) at Cleveland (Quantrill) - Over 6 -105 First 5 innings

Ouchie!

This wasn't as bad as it looked. Well, results wise it was.

But the Braves had 4 runs in the first, and that over looked like a cinch to hit. Nope, only 5 total after 5 innings, after many other scoring chances.

Both the Nats and the Yankees had early leads, and both were blown.

Looking back on it, none of these were bad picks. Just didn't work out.

As I type this, the Red Sox are playing ping-pong with the Rangers, with neither side pitching well. Gonna be a long night.

[Dan Druff]

Won yesterday.

Detroit (Faedo) +117 vs Toronto (Manoah)

Battle of the recently recovered starters.

[Dan Druff]

Lost the Detroit game on the 7th. Time to get back into things.

Going to fire on a Rockies home game again.

Rockies are 22-25 at home. The are A's/Royals level bad on the road, but at home they are almost .500. This is often neglected when they have fail years like this one.

Houston's Hunter Brown hasn't pitched well in his last 2 starts, and Denver is not a forgiving environment to a struggling pitcher. I'm taking the Rockies and their bullpen game.

Colorado (Bird) +186 vs Houston (H. Brown)

[Dan Druff]

Won Colorado yesterday. Nice!


Is Graham Ashcraft back? He was supposed to be my sleeper pitcher in fantasy this year. Presently he's on the free agent list, following my release of him over a month ago, and nobody has touched him. That says a lot in our very deep NL league.

But look at this numbers lately! Over his past 3 starts, he's gone at least 6 each time, allowed only one run each, and his WHIP over that span is 1.176.

Might he have finally found what he was doing wrong from April through June? Perhaps.

In any case, he's facing Ross Strpling, with even worse overall numbers than Ashcraft's, and who still doesn't seem totally recovered from injury.

The Reds scored 10 yesterday and lost to the Giants. Expect a bounceback today.

Reds (Ashcraft) -111 vs San Francisco (Stripling)

[Dan Druff]

One more, statring very shortly.

Angels (Silseth) at Yankees (Rodon) - Over 9 -105 (Over 8.5 -125 ok)

[Dan Druff]

Results for July (not including today):

7/2
Mets (Peterson) -126 vs San Francisco (Stripling) - W +0.79
Angels (Detmers) -116 vs Arizona (Gallen) - W +0.86
2-0, +1.65 units

7/3
Kansas City (Cox) at Minnesota (J. Ryan) - Under 8.5 +100 - L -1.00
0-1, -1.00 units

7/5
Yankees (Vasquez) -110 vs Baltimore (Kremer) - L -1.00
Washington (J. Gray) -102 vs Cincinnati (Ashcraft)- L -1.00
Atlanta (Soroka) at Cleveland (Quantrill) - Over 6 -105 First 5 inn - L -1.00
0-3, -3.00 units

7/6
Boston (Crawford) +130 vs Texas (Eovaldi) - W +1.30
1-0, +1.30 units

7/7
Detroit (Faedo) +117 vs Toronto (Manoah) - L -1.00
0-1, -1.00 units

7/18
Colorado (Bird) +186 vs Houston (H. Brown) - W +1.86
1-0, +1.86 units

Total: 4-5, -0.19 units

Grand total: 54-48, +5.77 units

[Dan Druff]

Won both yesterday.


Early games, 9:35am PT

Cincinnati (Abbott) -111 vs San Francisco (Cobb)

Milwaukee (Burnes) -106 at Philadelphia (T. Walker)